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[UmbrageOfSnow]

Vote count here, later...
And then he died, sorry

                                         Vote Count 3.2.1

arishipshape (3): Uncleeurope, faust, Joseph2302
Joseph2302 (1): EFHW
EFHW (1): raerae
faust (1): Debatepro

Not Voting (3): silverspawn, arishipshape, shraeye

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 ends February 21, 2019, 04:00:00 pm.

[Debatepro]

I think this is right, you can correct if wrong. - you are up shraeye.

DebatePro: Ari, faust, EFHW

arishipshape: faust, UncleEurope, ...

faust: ari, silver, Debatepro

silverspawn: ari, faust, Joseph

UncleEurope: ari, DebatePro, Joseph

Joseph2302: Ari, Raerae, Debatepro

raerae: EFHW, Uncle, increasingly faust, ...

EFHW: ari, Joseph, silver

shraeye:

[faust]

As an apprentice wizard, if being a motion detector not very useful, why would one expect to die?

Combined with the fact that Motion Detector is not generally a very useful role...

But what benefit does EFHW draw from this claim?

If she were scum and made the above play, she would pass as Town?

A while, but questions would start to pop up the longer she stayed alive. The big problem with these kinds of claims is you're expected to die.

It is still positive utility, and gives town more information, so for scum it is still a better kill than a VT. It is just that if you are say a Cop, then you really want to avoid claiming as much as possible until you have a lot of good information to share. As a Motion Detector, if you have one useful result that may be all you get and if you can utilize that, you probably should.

[faust]

I am now through a reread, here is a best of.

MiX (5): Debatepro, arishipshape, shraeye, faust, Uncleeurope

Here we have ari, Debate, Eddie all voting for MiX. If those three were the scum, then I doubt they would all support the same wagon on town. So, this is enough for me to rule out an Eddie/ari/Debate team.

(Vote: EFHW <-Just in case)

This post has Eddie switching votes from ari to EFHW. I would not expect that if the scumteam was Eddie/EFHW/ari. You'd usually stick to one bus.

Further when I vote EFHW very late in D1, Eddie joins. This would be a bold move if both are scum.

On D2, silver had made his case on ari, and Eddie joins the wagon:

And ari just doubles down on the fake moarning thing while also taking this MiX post way too seriously. Vote: arishipshape

I think this is not a double-bus from a scumteam silver-Eddie-ari, Eddie's manner of joining the wagon is too casual for that.

It is notable that the largest portion of MiX's core wagon yesterday - Debatepro, raerae, ari (and also recently shraeye, but he just unvoted) - are all not voting. I would really like to see them push someone other than MiX at some point in this game. The lack of voting so far is stalling the game.

EFHW, who is your top scumread?

Maybe it's because they're scum and haven't decided which mislynch wagon to create/join yet?

I moved to unvote bc clearly the shraeye vote was a blunder?? The most compelling cases to me right now are Ari bc I thought the EOD shenanigans was suspect also (+ss's vote) and EFHW. I want to read EFHW's defense against the DatSwan's case because it seemed compelling. If forced to pick right now, i'd pick one of those two.

In this, Debate says his top 2 scumreads are ari and EFHW. This points against a scum team of the three of them.

Vote Count 2.4
"There is only one thing a philosopher can be relied upon to do, and that is to contradict other philosophers.” — William James

arishipshape (3): silverspawn, Uncleeurope, DatSwan
DatSwan (4): faust, EFHW, arishipshape, Joseph2302
mail-mi (1): DebatePro

Not Voting (3): raerae, shraeye, mail-mi

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 ends February 11, 2019, 05:00:00 pm

EFHW-ari-Joseph all on DatSwan. This makes it unlikely that this is the scumteam. Previously we have had silver-Eddie-Debate all on ari, which makes me also think that they are not the scumteam.

[faust]

I have another observation and am unsure how beneficial it would be to share, so I am keeping it to myself for now.

[Debatepro]

To summarize, certain votes make the follow groups unlikely to be scum teams?

Eddie/ari/Debate
Eddie/EFHW/ari
faust/Eddie
silver/Eddie/ari
Debate/ari/EFHW
EFHW/ari/Joseph
silver/Eddie/Debate

[Uncleeurope]

To summarize, certain votes make the follow groups unlikely to be scum teams?

Eddie/ari/Debate
Eddie/EFHW/ari
EFHW/Eddie
silver/Eddie/ari
Debate/ari/EFHW
EFHW/ari/Joseph
silver/Eddie/Debate

Bold was a change I made.


I think he was referring to both non-hims in his wording there, plus he wasn’t offering eliminations for his own scum teams anywhere else. That might be incorrect though.

[EFHW]

To summarize, certain votes make the follow groups unlikely to be scum teams?

Eddie/ari/Debate
Eddie/EFHW/ari
faust/Eddie
silver/Eddie/ari
Debate/ari/EFHW
EFHW/ari/Joseph
silver/Eddie/Debate

Instead of faust/Eddie you should have EFHW/ Eddie.

[EFHW]

Ninja'd

[shraeye]

My instinct says that ari HAS to be scum (is it the same instinct that told me MiX and DatSwan had to be scum?).  He seems to have just devolved into intense aloofness.  Doesn't seem like he's too distraught to be the universal scumread of everyone; didn't even realize what claims we were making here; or that it was his turn; and when he realized, still didn't even complete them.

Joseph also is on my list.

silverspawn  is my third.

[shraeye]

Some interesting facts: there are two possible 3-person scumteams that involve no bussing at all:

DebatePro/raerae/silver

EFHW/faust/UncleEurope (interestingly, this is raerae's list...hmm)

[shraeye]

Everybody faust suspects suspects him back.  (same goes for ari, but that's less of an interesting fact, and more of a fact)

[EFHW]

Thought experiment: Would any scum be bold enough to list both their partners in their top 3?

[EFHW]

If ari and Joseph are both scum, their third teammate has no support and is essentially playing alone.

[Joseph2302]

If ari and Joseph are both scum, their third teammate has no support and is essentially playing alone.

Ari is scum. Joseph not scum

[EFHW]

I think even though I listed both of them in my top 3, ari and Joseph probably aren't partners. Their third (though we need to remember 3 is an assumption) would have talked to them at night and I think at least one would have stepped up their game.

[raerae]

Thought experiment: Would any scum be bold enough to list both their partners in their top 3?

As scum I totally would, this isn't out of the realm of possibility as far as I'm concerned.

[shraeye]

Raerae- I went off the thought of lynching raerae yesterday, because I thought Datswan was scum. Their interactions yesterday always struck me as scum/town

What do you think about mail-mi's supposed result on raerae?

What supposed result?
Clearly I missed it, can someone post it again please?

You seriously missed it?? Did anybody answer this?  There was a lot about this; I'll link mail-mi's breadcrumbs.  AND I'll link the 3 people discussing it specifically on Day3.  I won't link all the other day3 discussion around it

He mentions 3 times that either (A) he had a scumread on raerae, but it's gone (she didn't change what she was doing) or that (B) he was looking for scumminess, but exempting raerae

Then raerae humorously called them loaves, instead of breadcrumbs:

DebatePro made a big analysis about why he missed the breadcrumbs:

plus a followup

And a discussion about whether EFHW did or did not pick up on them as well.

So, Joseph.  what are your thoughts on this?

[EFHW]

I think we should avoid the obvious lynches and try to find the sleeper/vet on the team. I say that because I think Debate and Eddie are town. For me, this means voting silver.

[shraeye]

I think scum would list both partners, especially if Ari was one.

If ari is not a partner, I don't think that scum would list both.  Imagine that scenario: ari is town, lined up to be the next lynch.  Nobody knows who you are ---I think all our serious wagons thus far have been MiX (oops), DatSwan (oops), ari (hypothetical town in this scenario), mail-mi (cop), raerae (supposed target), LaLight (Mason).  It would be easy peasy to bank the ari lynch and be working on the next mislynch; why set yourself up to "suspect" the only two correct lynches?  seems silly.

[shraeye]

I do NOT buy your reasoning for Ari/Joseph aren't a team, EFHW

[faust]

Some interesting facts: there are two possible 3-person scumteams that involve no bussing at all:

DebatePro/raerae/silver

EFHW/faust/UncleEurope (interestingly, this is raerae's list...hmm)

Do you think there is a chance that raerae is in fact scum?

[faust]

I think we should avoid the obvious lynches and try to find the sleeper/vet on the team. I say that because I think Debate and Eddie are town. For me, this means voting silver.

Why do you think that? Which are the obvious lynches?

[faust]

I think it is best to talk about this now.

EFHW never mentions Eddie (remember her supposed N1 target who she has a favorable result on) at all during D2 until the point where shraeye and raerae are both voting for him. This strikes me as very, very strange.

[shraeye]

Some interesting facts: there are two possible 3-person scumteams that involve no bussing at all:

DebatePro/raerae/silver

EFHW/faust/UncleEurope (interestingly, this is raerae's list...hmm)

Do you think there is a chance that raerae is in fact scum?

I can't envision a world where that is true