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Author Topic: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Game over)  (Read 271666 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #875 on: January 27, 2019, 01:52:55 pm »

Re: Gloobleó Iím inclined to err on the side of careless analysis, but there is a slightly scummy ring to the way Glooble changes her votes around. I know Iíve said before that votes without explanation are scummy, but votes with too much information can come off as overcompensating for the former and therefore also scummy.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #876 on: January 27, 2019, 02:01:29 pm »

I don't find discussion of absolute probabilities at all helpful.

The absolute probability of any one person being scum is of course lowish, everyone knows that.
I think it's legitimate to talk about likelihoods relative to the baseline, and say someone has a high/low probability of being scum with the implicit caveat that you mean relative to the standard baselines.

That said, I've already pointed out that I disagree with Glooble's points re. Awaclus.
I just don't find it to be nearly as misleading as you seem to, space.  So no i dont get scumvibes from that Glooble post.

I'm much more inclined to see space's insistence on discussion of absolute probabilities scummy.
It ignores the fact that this is simply not how people usually communicate. Maybe you feel it should be, but that doesn't give you free reign to accuse others of being misleading; they are only communicating as comes most naturally to them.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #877 on: January 27, 2019, 02:05:02 pm »

Re: Gloobleó Iím inclined to err on the side of careless analysis, but there is a slightly scummy ring to the way Glooble changes her votes around. I know Iíve said before that votes without explanation are scummy, but votes with too much information can come off as overcompensating for the former and therefore also scummy.

Switching my votes around? What are you talking about? Iíve voted for 2 people this whole day?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #878 on: January 27, 2019, 02:14:25 pm »

Re: Gloobleó Iím inclined to err on the side of careless analysis, but there is a slightly scummy ring to the way Glooble changes her votes around. I know Iíve said before that votes without explanation are scummy, but votes with too much information can come off as overcompensating for the former and therefore also scummy.

Switching my votes around? What are you talking about? Iíve voted for 2 people this whole day?

Right.  But every time you DO switch you do it in a ponderous way that i find a smidge scummy for the reasons described above.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #879 on: January 27, 2019, 02:30:10 pm »

I think it's legitimate to talk about likelihoods relative to the baseline, and say someone has a high/low probability of being scum with the implicit caveat that you mean relative to the standard baselines.

Yes, the baseline is exactly what I was talking about when I used the word "prior". It gets used enough if mafia games that I'm pretty sure even people on the "wordsy" end of the player spectrum understand what it means.

I also pointed out that it would be a fair criticism of my responses to Glooble if you wanted to look at the fact that I was looking only at the "baselines"and not at the overall picture:

If you want a fair criticism of me, though, you can complain that I'm only talking about priors


I'm much more inclined to see space's insistence on discussion of absolute probabilities scummy.
It ignores the fact that this is simply not how people usually communicate. Maybe you feel it should be, but that doesn't give you free reign to accuse others of being misleading; they are only communicating as comes most naturally to them.

In fact, I deliberately said I'm not sure whether Glooble falls into the "mathsy" camp or not:

I don't know how much of a logic person you are, but that looks like either sloppy work, or a deliberate twisting of facts.

which means I don't know if I should be expecting him to think rationally. If that post came from a logical player like silverspawn or faust, I would immediately smell a rat because it looks carefully-crafted to make everyone focus on the less likely stuff while dismissing almost all of the other options that don't fit hist case argument with the barest mention, even though they could be a lot more likely on the whole. Based on the fact that Glooble has now said he just wasn't thinking about probability (while making a probability-based "what's more likely" kind of an argument), I'm happy to concede that he really doesn't seem to be a Bayesian.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #880 on: January 27, 2019, 02:40:44 pm »

As an exercise, Haddock, if you started with a set of scenarios like Glooble posted, how would you proceed with you reasoning? I know that you went straight to picking up on exactly the point I did, which was that he was glossing over what seemed by far to be the most likely option. You went for it because of how it misrepresented Awaclus's logic, and I went for it because it underrepresented the likelihood of most players being townie to begin with, but we both obviously disagreed with the case.

Rather than throwing shade for my attempts to articulate why Glooble's case was wrong, why not try scrutinising Glooble's decision to vote Awaclus over LL in the first place, given that he'd explicitly stated that he thought LL was scummy, then moved to Awa because of this case that evidently convinced him so unexpectedly, and then switched back to LL again apparently just because of the plurality lynch that's still 30+ hours out.
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Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #881 on: January 27, 2019, 02:47:16 pm »


Rather than throwing shade for my attempts to articulate why Glooble's case was wrong, why not try scrutinising Glooble's decision to vote Awaclus over LL in the first place, given that he'd explicitly stated that he thought LL was scummy, then moved to Awa because of this case that evidently convinced him so unexpectedly, and then switched back to LL again apparently just because of the plurality lynch that's still 30+ hours out.

I'm honestly happy with either of them. But I think my logic is pretty consistent and I outline my thought process as I go along.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #882 on: January 27, 2019, 03:39:24 pm »

Whelp, I like the idea of finding scum better than LL. But I donít think Awaclus is it, and there doesnít seem to be any sort of critical mass elsewhere.

It seems that. Robz is still getting a pass, but I really donít think that should last much longer.

DatSwan is late to the game and kind of all over, but not super scummy yo me.

I still have some apprehension about the Ashersky/e combo.

Haddock, Space, Joth, and Glooble are all being helpful. Mail-mi less so.

What about mail-mi? Super present, then not once we shifted to talking g about LL and Awaclus...
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #883 on: January 27, 2019, 03:44:05 pm »

Whelp, I like the idea of finding scum better than LL. But I donít think Awaclus is it, and there doesnít seem to be any sort of critical mass elsewhere.

It seems that. Robz is still getting a pass, but I really donít think that should last much longer.

DatSwan is late to the game and kind of all over, but not super scummy yo me.

I still have some apprehension about the Ashersky/e combo.

Haddock, Space, Joth, and Glooble are all being helpful. Mail-mi less so.

What about mail-mi? Super present, then not once we shifted to talking g about LL and Awaclus...

Would lynch.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #884 on: January 27, 2019, 03:52:56 pm »

Good gravy...sorry about all the typos.

Vote: mail-mi
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #885 on: January 27, 2019, 04:04:17 pm »

Whelp, I like the idea of finding scum better than LL. But I donít think Awaclus is it, and there doesnít seem to be any sort of critical mass elsewhere.

It seems that. Robz is still getting a pass, but I really donít think that should last much longer.

DatSwan is late to the game and kind of all over, but not super scummy yo me.

I still have some apprehension about the Ashersky/e combo.

Haddock, Space, Joth, and Glooble are all being helpful. Mail-mi less so.

What about mail-mi? Super present, then not once we shifted to talking g about LL and Awaclus...

mail-mi has been suddenly busy with college. I was planning on getting on later today and doing some rereading and posting some thoughts.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #886 on: January 27, 2019, 04:08:24 pm »

Cool...Iím looking forward to your insight.
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Haddock

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #887 on: January 27, 2019, 04:24:11 pm »

I think it's legitimate to talk about likelihoods relative to the baseline, and say someone has a high/low probability of being scum with the implicit caveat that you mean relative to the standard baselines.

Yes, the baseline is exactly what I was talking about when I used the word "prior". It gets used enough if mafia games that I'm pretty sure even people on the "wordsy" end of the player spectrum understand what it means.
I can't remember anyone other than you using the word prior in a mafia game on this forum.

Moreover: although it would not be unreasonable for me to describe myself as a professional mathematician, I nevertheless don't know what you mean by "prior" in this context.
(Well I sort of do now, but didn't before.)



I'm much more inclined to see space's insistence on discussion of absolute probabilities scummy.
It ignores the fact that this is simply not how people usually communicate. Maybe you feel it should be, but that doesn't give you free reign to accuse others of being misleading; they are only communicating as comes most naturally to them.

In fact, I deliberately said I'm not sure whether Glooble falls into the "mathsy" camp or not:

I don't know how much of a logic person you are, but that looks like either sloppy work, or a deliberate twisting of facts.

which means I don't know if I should be expecting him to think rationally.

This is exactly my point.  People can think rationally and discuss rationally and generally be rational people without needing to present their every thought in the context of Bayesian statistics and probability.  Indeed I'd say it helps the discussions to avoid couching everything in the probabilities, since the probability that someone is scum is always so small that if you just follow the probability you'll never make a decision.


The rest of this quote
If that post came from a logical player like silverspawn or faust, I would immediately smell a rat because it looks carefully-crafted to make everyone focus on the less likely stuff while dismissing almost all of the other options that don't fit hist case argument with the barest mention, even though they could be a lot more likely on the whole. Based on the fact that Glooble has now said he just wasn't thinking about probability (while making a probability-based "what's more likely" kind of an argument), I'm happy to concede that he really doesn't seem to be a Bayesian.
heavily implies that Glooble is somehow an illogical person because he didn't use Bayesian arguments.    And throwing doubt onto someone's ability to analyse correctly (for not-very-good reasons) is just as scummy a thing to do as throwing doubt onto their alignment (for not-very-good reasons).


As an exercise, Haddock, if you started with a set of scenarios like Glooble posted, how would you proceed with you reasoning? I know that you went straight to picking up on exactly the point I did, which was that he was glossing over what seemed by far to be the most likely option. You went for it because of how it misrepresented Awaclus's logic, and I went for it because it underrepresented the likelihood of most players being townie to begin with, but we both obviously disagreed with the case.
You've seen how I would proceed with my reasoning.  I didn't analyse the way Glooble chose to present the information because it seemed natural to me.  I analysed his claim that Awaclus's vaguely irrational-looking behaviour made him less likely to be town.  Which was a claim I disagreed with.


Rather than throwing shade for my attempts to articulate why Glooble's case was wrong,
By all means say Glooble's case was wrong.  It's your implicit (and sometimes explicit) attempt to discredit Glooble's reasoning capacities that I am throwing shade at.


why not try scrutinising Glooble's decision to vote Awaclus over LL in the first place, given that he'd explicitly stated that he thought LL was scummy, then moved to Awa because of this case that evidently convinced him so unexpectedly, and then switched back to LL again apparently just because of the plurality lynch that's still 30+ hours out.
Hmmm.  Here you have a point.  i have been getting strong towny vibes from Glooble throughout and perhaps didn't give this the scrutiny it deserved.  Though 30+ hours is not really all that long.  I agree that gives Glooble some scumpoints but I still absolutely wouldn't have him on my lynch list for today.


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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #888 on: January 27, 2019, 05:39:01 pm »

I can't remember anyone other than you using the word prior in a mafia game on this forum.

Others who use the word spontaneously include silver and Calamitas. Plenty of other quote it and engage with conversations around it. And it's possible I use it more games than not, and in a consistent enough way that even people who don't really care at all will have inferred something about its meaning.

(From here down to the start of the final quote of the post is now skippable maths stuff, for anyone who's bored of me already)

Moreover: although it would not be unreasonable for me to describe myself as a professional mathematician, I nevertheless don't know what you mean by "prior" in this context.
(Well I sort of do now, but didn't before.)

It's too "applied" for most theoretical mathematicians, but it's crucially important in a lot of fields. For example, here's an article about how bad medical doctors are at interpreting statistics around whether someone actually has a disease: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28166019

The relevance here is that it's more or less the same thing in mafia: we need to know (or estimate) the rate of scums in the game, how likely a given player is to "test positive" (get labeled as scummy) if they're scum, and how likely they are to do that as town anyway. Only with values filled in (possibly just from gut-reads or defaults) for all that information can you really build up a clear picture about who's likely to be scummy.. and even if everything is a yes-or-no test, it's still too hard for many doctors to be able to do it correctly. And we don't even get yes-or-no tests most of the time.

@Glooble, I'm sorry if my assertion of "maybe it's sloppy reasoning, maybe it's scumminess" as a criticism of you personally. I definitely don't mean that! I mean that most people aren't trained to look at things this way and human beings are bad at it innately.. definitely not a character judgement.

Hmmm.  Here you have a point.  i have been getting strong towny vibes from Glooble throughout and perhaps didn't give this the scrutiny it deserved.  Though 30+ hours is not really all that long.  I agree that gives Glooble some scumpoints but I still absolutely wouldn't have him on my lynch list for today.

Thank you for at least considering looking more at Glooble. Yes, 30+ hours isn't too long, but it didn't feel like jump-off-a-wagon-he's-so-sure-about-straight-away urgent. I'm aware I really do need to get my vote down somewhere.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #889 on: January 27, 2019, 05:43:41 pm »

Sure, mail-mi is a would-lynch. I wondered where most of the scrutiny on him from D1 went, though I was voting him for much of that time anyway.

Vote: mail-mi

My main would-lynch is still LL.

I wouldn't lynch Awaclus at this point without a scummy flip from LL of a type that indicates LL was on a team with other scums.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #890 on: January 27, 2019, 08:53:19 pm »

It turns out I probably won't have the time tonight that I had imagined I would (story of my life). I will try to at least get some content in
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #891 on: January 27, 2019, 09:27:33 pm »

I'm not really willing to entertain this idea further without a claim other than to say that if they're both cult-aligned they need to start scumhunting like yesterday.

Hypercube, I figure as the dead man walking you have nothing to lose so I trust you. Can you share your sense of things up to now? Whatís your best guess on scum? Or who targeted you?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #892 on: January 27, 2019, 09:29:54 pm »

I don't find discussion of absolute probabilities at all helpful.

The absolute probability of any one person being scum is of course lowish, everyone knows that.
I think it's legitimate to talk about likelihoods relative to the baseline, and say someone has a high/low probability of being scum with the implicit caveat that you mean relative to the standard baselines.

That said, I've already pointed out that I disagree with Glooble's points re. Awaclus.
I just don't find it to be nearly as misleading as you seem to, space.  So no i dont get scumvibes from that Glooble post.

I'm much more inclined to see space's insistence on discussion of absolute probabilities scummy.
It ignores the fact that this is simply not how people usually communicate. Maybe you feel it should be, but that doesn't give you free reign to accuse others of being misleading; they are only communicating as comes most naturally to them.

Space talking about math is town!space squared to the tenth power.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. Thatís how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #893 on: January 27, 2019, 09:55:28 pm »

Space talking about math is town!space squared to the tenth power.

And the wordsy folks nod and say ďuhm, yeah, that sounds right...Ē 
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #894 on: January 27, 2019, 09:56:19 pm »

Okay, I'm not sure how much time I'll have right now. I'm going to go do a reread, but let me pencil down some pre-reread thoughts just in case I can't finish.

- wagon on me is bad, nobody should join it

- Space doing mathy things seems like both town!space and scum!space. Doesn't change my read on her. Although I didn't like her criticism of glooble's logic, as haddock pointed out. Maybe slight scum read?

- my read on joth has not changed so far

- I still think LL is telling the truth, though I'm gonna go reread her. I've been mulling over Ash's point about her retconning her claim, and I think he has a point.

um... that's pretty much what I'm thinking right now
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #895 on: January 27, 2019, 10:19:56 pm »

starting my reread with hyper's claim. this post will collect my thoughts as I read.

I'm honestly not sure how much I like space's reply to it, though there's nothing I can pick out. Just a feeling.

Space also continues to push ash/e, which is a pretty unlikely thing to do. I think it makes her a little more townie.

not sure how I feel about WCD.

there's a lot of talk about hypercube's claim, none of which I find particularly towny or scummy. so that's unfortunate

I think haddock is pretty towny.

I also think glooble is pretty towny. Lalight is looking worse to me as I read

i am now out of time. we shall see what happens later today. Still comfortable with my vote where it is at, but I definitely can move it to lalight right now. Also currently might be willing to vote space if that ends up going anywhere. And Datswan, haven't seem much of her so far in my read, would be willing to vote
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #896 on: January 28, 2019, 01:18:06 am »

I get a hard time making a case based on someone's votes for me, actually. I think both scum and town would vote me after my claim, because claim is not exactly townie. The only person acting really weird about my claim is mail-mi. This is also self-preservation, so vote: mail-mi

One more thing: if you do not lynch me, at one point I will be able to prove the claim (unless scum targets me every night just to get my lynch through which is a waste of shots, better for us as well), either declining the offer faust gave me and possibly dying? being hated? Hopefully something that will be obvious in thread or if you won't believe me on D4 that I am still alive therefore must be scum, you can lynch me then.

How about that?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #897 on: January 28, 2019, 01:28:17 am »

Ok because I don't want to have us scrambling for a lynch over the last few hours of the day, I'm going to claim at least part of my role now.

I am an Odd-night delayed cop. I send in requests on odd nights and get the results after even nights. I had targeted hypercube because I wanted to be sure about her, but i guess i wasn't the only person to target her last night. I was really disappointed to learn that she would die tonight.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #898 on: January 28, 2019, 01:35:30 am »

vote: LL

That mail-mi Hail Mary vote sealed it for me.

Would vote Glooble or SA if needed to get a lynch.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #899 on: January 28, 2019, 01:47:12 am »

vote: LL

That mail-mi Hail Mary vote sealed it for me.

Would vote Glooble or SA if needed to get a lynch.

Wanna vote SA with me? LL has been scummy but I still think shes telling the truth.
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I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon
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