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Author Topic: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Game over)  (Read 272861 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #850 on: January 27, 2019, 11:04:35 am »

Scenario 1: LL is scum. Awaclus is also scum and is trying to forestall LLs lynch one night. Maybe to give LL a chance to use a 1-shot power? Maybe in the hopes that night 2 will give info that will allow her to push an alternate lynch. This is the scenario I've been leaning towards.

And out myself as scum?
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #851 on: January 27, 2019, 11:21:24 am »

Scenario 1: LL is scum. Awaclus is also scum and is trying to forestall LLs lynch one night. Maybe to give LL a chance to use a 1-shot power? Maybe in the hopes that night 2 will give info that will allow her to push an alternate lynch. This is the scenario I've been leaning towards.

And out myself as scum?

You obviously weren’t trying to. But sometimes things don’t work out.

I agree that LaLight’s response to her wagon has been terrible. I still have a preference for vote: LaLight and I’m happy to keep sleeping hyper, who is quasi-IC.

OMG I just had a breakthrough. LaLight is the Survivor/recruiter that tried to recruit hyper. Awaclus is some kind of bodyguard/starting recruit who has to keep LaLight alive to win. That’s why Awaclus is defending LL way more than a normal scum partner would. She has no other option!

If I’m right though, should we lynch elsewhere? Try to hit real scum?
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #852 on: January 27, 2019, 11:46:04 am »

Oh, that is a really interesting idea, Joth. And maybe explains some of the dynamics at play.

Yes, let’s try to find actual scum.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #853 on: January 27, 2019, 11:48:29 am »

I have some to read now, so I’ll get caught up.
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hypercube

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #854 on: January 27, 2019, 11:48:45 am »

If I’m right though, should we lynch elsewhere? Try to hit real scum?

If you're right then they should have claimed that a while ago. I guess I would at least reconsider if they both claimed that now. But I really don't think you're right.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #855 on: January 27, 2019, 11:51:23 am »

If I’m right though, should we lynch elsewhere? Try to hit real scum?

If you're right then they should have claimed that a while ago. I guess I would at least reconsider if they both claimed that now. But I really don't think you're right.

If there’s a night faction that needs them to die, they’re toast if they claim.
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hypercube

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #856 on: January 27, 2019, 11:55:41 am »

If I’m right though, should we lynch elsewhere? Try to hit real scum?

If you're right then they should have claimed that a while ago. I guess I would at least reconsider if they both claimed that now. But I really don't think you're right.

If there’s a night faction that needs them to die, they’re toast if they claim.

No NK last night points to town having some sort of protective role. Town is probably inclined to help them to prevent a double-NK or worse, since we know what their wincon is.
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hypercube

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #857 on: January 27, 2019, 11:59:18 am »

I'm not really willing to entertain this idea further without a claim other than to say that if they're both cult-aligned they need to start scumhunting like yesterday.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #858 on: January 27, 2019, 11:59:52 am »

request vote count

If joth's theory is true, the best plan is to lynch DatSwan.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #859 on: January 27, 2019, 12:02:56 pm »

Vote Count 2.6

jotheonah (1): mail-mi
LaLight (3): Haddock, hypercube, jotheonah
2.71828..... (1): LaLight
DatSwan (2): Awaclus, 2.71828.....
Awaclus (2): DatSwan, Glooble

Not Voting (4): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds, Robz888, ashersky

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on January 29, 2019, 01:00:00 am. That is in 37 hours.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #860 on: January 27, 2019, 12:03:31 pm »

I think joth's theory is townie (as in, jotheonah is townie), but I don't think that he is correct
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #861 on: January 27, 2019, 12:25:16 pm »

A reminder: the default deadline lynch is based on “fewest votes required to lynch”, which means I’m currently tied with LaLight and would likely die if the day ended now.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #862 on: January 27, 2019, 12:28:57 pm »

A reminder: the default deadline lynch is based on “fewest votes required to lynch”, which means I’m currently tied with LaLight and would likely die if the day ended now.

Ok, good point.

vote: LaLight
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #863 on: January 27, 2019, 12:43:05 pm »

Wait are you double hated? There’s only one vote on you.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #864 on: January 27, 2019, 12:45:14 pm »

Oh wait you’re right. I guess I mixed up ash’s hated with mine. Phew.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #865 on: January 27, 2019, 12:51:41 pm »

Well, honestly my two strongest townreads are skeptical about the Awaclus lynch, which seems like reason enough for me to switch back to LaLight. For now.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #866 on: January 27, 2019, 01:04:58 pm »

So in the process of trying to write this post I think I've convinced myself that Awaclus is probably scum. I know this contradicts what I just stated, but I've had a bit of a breakthrough.

Scenario 1: LL is scum. Awaclus is also scum and is trying to forestall LLs lynch one night. Maybe to give LL a chance to use a 1-shot power? Maybe in the hopes that night 2 will give info that will allow her to push an alternate lynch. This is the scenario I've been leaning towards.

Scenario 2:  Awaclus is town, does not know LL's alignment, and honestly believes the fuzzy logic she's been expounding about LL's lynch not being informative.

Scenario 3: LL is town. Awaclus is scum, and knows LL is town, and wants to get town points for looking like she's trying to stop a town lynch.

Having laid this out, scenario two feels like far and away the least likely to me. Awaclus's behavior looks scummy to me regardless of LL's alignment.

I still really want to lynch LL.

But.

This is good too.

vote: Awaclus

This seems like a really bad piece of logical deduction, for the following reasons:

1) You're forgetting that by far the most likely state of affairs (unless this setup is seriously twisted) is that any two people are [i[both[/i] town.
2) Awaclus also has a longish history of being quite contrarian and dogged in his application of his preferred behaviours, so even before considering the priors, I'd say that Awaclus believed the logic.
3) Your presentation of the breakdown, deliberately or otherwise, appeared to present three options and then disregard one. The most natural way to break down all the combinations of scum-or-town that a pair of players can have is into four sections.. and even then you're hampered by the fact that they're not all equally likely. I don't know how much of a logic person you are, but that looks like either sloppy work, or a deliberate twisting of facts.

Urgh.. PPE lots because I was away from the computer for a while.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #867 on: January 27, 2019, 01:12:40 pm »

So in the process of trying to write this post I think I've convinced myself that Awaclus is probably scum. I know this contradicts what I just stated, but I've had a bit of a breakthrough.

Scenario 1: LL is scum. Awaclus is also scum and is trying to forestall LLs lynch one night. Maybe to give LL a chance to use a 1-shot power? Maybe in the hopes that night 2 will give info that will allow her to push an alternate lynch. This is the scenario I've been leaning towards.

Scenario 2:  Awaclus is town, does not know LL's alignment, and honestly believes the fuzzy logic she's been expounding about LL's lynch not being informative.

Scenario 3: LL is town. Awaclus is scum, and knows LL is town, and wants to get town points for looking like she's trying to stop a town lynch.

Having laid this out, scenario two feels like far and away the least likely to me. Awaclus's behavior looks scummy to me regardless of LL's alignment.

I still really want to lynch LL.

But.

This is good too.

vote: Awaclus

This seems like a really bad piece of logical deduction, for the following reasons:

1) You're forgetting that by far the most likely state of affairs (unless this setup is seriously twisted) is that any two people are [i[both[/i] town.
2) Awaclus also has a longish history of being quite contrarian and dogged in his application of his preferred behaviours, so even before considering the priors, I'd say that Awaclus believed the logic.
3) Your presentation of the breakdown, deliberately or otherwise, appeared to present three options and then disregard one. The most natural way to break down all the combinations of scum-or-town that a pair of players can have is into four sections.. and even then you're hampered by the fact that they're not all equally likely. I don't know how much of a logic person you are, but that looks like either sloppy work, or a deliberate twisting of facts.

Urgh.. PPE lots because I was away from the computer for a while.

If Awaclus is town, He doesn’t know LL’s alignment. So if all I’m analyzing is Awaclus’s behavior , “Awaclus is town and LL is scum” and “Awaclus is town and LL is town” are functionally identically. So why not lump them together?
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Haddock

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #868 on: January 27, 2019, 01:14:18 pm »

Sorry space, but not sure I agree with you there.

Typically it would be natural to break into 4 but this situation is far from typical in that LL is really quite lynchable even if she is town.

Hence it makes sense to present both of the two town!awaclus scenarios together in one block.

Even more so when you consider that awaclus being town would mean awaclus doesn't know LL's alignment and therefore analysing awaclus's behaviour is much more difficult.
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M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #869 on: January 27, 2019, 01:14:51 pm »

PPE wow Glooble samebrain.
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M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #870 on: January 27, 2019, 01:17:51 pm »

LaLight is the Survivor/recruiter that tried to recruit hyper. Awaclus is some kind of bodyguard/starting recruit who has to keep LaLight alive to win. That’s why Awaclus is defending LL way more than a normal scum partner would. She has no other option!

How does this work? Is there only one third-faction Anaander group, or more than one? If there's more than one, do they all start with two players, and/or are they all allowed to convert multiple people per day? If not, then Awa being on LL's team, with LL as the leader, makes little sense, because when would Awa have been converted? And why would LL have chosen Awa, who multiple people have said they find quite abrasive and aren't generally sorry to lynch? If there's only one third-faction Anaander group, is the main scum group also Anaander? If so, how are you sure that you can distinguish between LL being part of the third-faction and the regular-mafia versions?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #871 on: January 27, 2019, 01:22:14 pm »

If Awaclus is town, He doesn’t know LL’s alignment. So if all I’m analyzing is Awaclus’s behavior , “Awaclus is town and LL is scum” and “Awaclus is town and LL is town” are functionally identically. So why not lump them together?

Because Awaclus being town, in normal mafia at least, is way more likely than Awaclus being scum. Let's say people have a 1/4 chance of being scum, and a 3/4 chance of being town. Then your "Scenario 1" has a prior weight of 1/16, your "Scenario 3" has a weight of 3/16, and the little scenario in the middle, which you casually discard, is where 3/4 of the prior probability sits. At least if you break it down into scenarios 2a and 2b, with 3/16 and 9/16 respectively, other people who have a similar cognitive bias get to see that actually there are more options that each deserve individual consideration.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #872 on: January 27, 2019, 01:27:55 pm »

Sorry space, but not sure I agree with you there.

Typically it would be natural to break into 4 but this situation is far from typical in that LL is really quite lynchable even if she is town.

Hence it makes sense to present both of the two town!awaclus scenarios together in one block.

Even more so when you consider that awaclus being town would mean awaclus doesn't know LL's alignment and therefore analysing awaclus's behaviour is much more difficult.

It's the style of doing it I don't like. Glooble "hides" like 75% of the probability mass as if it's just one option of many, then somehow states that that's unlikely and entirely focuses the argument onto the less likely stuff. People in general see a list of options and aren't very good at thinking about how likely each one is.

If you want a fair criticism of me, though, you can complain that I'm only talking about priors, here, and we ought to be talking about posterior probabilities having observed LL and Awa's behaviour. However, I still think that unless there's a huge weight of evidence that Awa himself is scum then the case Glooble presents doesn't have nearly the weight he implies.

Remember also that he was presenting a case that was backing up a vote on Awaclus, in particular that he was asserting that his case was good enough to find Awaclus scummier than LL, considering the behaviour exhibited by both of them.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #873 on: January 27, 2019, 01:33:22 pm »

I wasn’t really thinking about probability. I was just thinking about what scenarios would explain Awaclus’s behavior, and then considering which one made the most sense to me. And when I did this I found the scenarios where Awaclus was scum both seemed to ring true for me in a way that that scenarios where Awaclus was town did not.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #874 on: January 27, 2019, 01:49:10 pm »

LaLight is the Survivor/recruiter that tried to recruit hyper. Awaclus is some kind of bodyguard/starting recruit who has to keep LaLight alive to win. That’s why Awaclus is defending LL way more than a normal scum partner would. She has no other option!

How does this work? Is there only one third-faction Anaander group, or more than one? If there's more than one, do they all start with two players, and/or are they all allowed to convert multiple people per day? If not, then Awa being on LL's team, with LL as the leader, makes little sense, because when would Awa have been converted? And why would LL have chosen Awa, who multiple people have said they find quite abrasive and aren't generally sorry to lynch? If there's only one third-faction Anaander group, is the main scum group also Anaander? If so, how are you sure that you can distinguish between LL being part of the third-faction and the regular-mafia versions?

My implicit assumption is that because Aanander who tried to recruit hyper is both recruiter AND survivor, she would start out with one “recruit” to help keep her alive.
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