Possibility: Scum knows Robz is active and are trying to burn two days of lynches on an town member.
Seriously. If Robz is active + town, you guys are putting us at LYLO with this plan. It's not a "good to get it out of the way" kind of decision here. It's a "if he's active, we're committing to him as scum" kind of decision.
But if Robz is active+scum and we have some other parity disruption (say town IDPTG, or scum Eevee or scum Ash) we're already at mylo. So, yeah I'd rather not go go to lylo by lynching Robz, but I'd also rather not lose by making a bad town-lynch. It would be nice if our investigative role had cleared the hard lynches like Robz and Ash...but that didn't happen. So now we're stuck between a rock and a hard place.
However, I'm reconsidering whether ash is our best target...
If we get to 2v1 with active scum-ash, we win. If we get to 2v1 with active scum-Robz we lose. If Robz is scum we want to lynch him early. I'd have to run the numbers, but I think this means that we're not at mylo on account of ash, as long as we lynch him last?
@IDPTG: if we lynch scum you are good to go visiting. If we lynch town, it depends on who it is. Basically, if we lynch Robz or Eevee (regardless of alignment) you can visit, and if you die we're okay. If we lynch anyone else and they're town, you need to not visit, because if Robz+Eevee are active scum then we lose on your death.
If Robz and Eevee are scum, aren’t we at MYLo right now anyway?
Yeah, sorry, I was being dumb with that whole post (almost). Here's the correct version:
@O: If we lynch ANY town we're at MYLO at best (already lost at worst). The only difference with lynching an active town-Robz is that we're at LYLO instead of MYLO. I think generally LYLO is preferrable if you can swing it for good reason.
Suppose Robz+Ash are active scum. We're at 7v3 right now...we lynch town and go to 5v3. Then we have to lynch Robz, we go 4v3, then 3v2. Then we have to pick out the non-ash scum, and get to 2v1, then lynch ash and hit 1v0 and win.
Suppose Robz+Eevee are active scum. 7v3->5v3 after town lynch. Then we lynch Robz, but Eevee shoots town, and we end up with 2v2 and lose. If O blocks Eevee's kill, we can prevent this. But, if not we lose. There are several reasons O could fail to block Eevee's kill, such as him being nk'd or being scum.
So, this is why I was reconsidering whether we should lynch ash today...and I think that's a good reason not to.
unvoteSo, what if we DO lynch Robz today (and tomorrow) and he's active?
Suppose he's town:
We go to 4v3. If Eevee is (unblocked) active scum we lose, or if IDPTG visits scum we lose. (we can still defeat active-scum ash by lynching him last).
After more thought, there's a very simple reason we could fail to block Eevee, even if O is town, which is if he's nk'd. That doesn't mean that his nk implicates Eevee it just enables him.
Okay, what if we lynch Eevee?
Suppose he's town:
we go to 5v3. If Robz is active!scum, and we realize this, we lynch him next->3v2, then we lynch the remaining 2 scum and win (lynching ash last, if scum).
So, moral of the story: burning a lynch on active town!Robz is just as bad as burning it on active scum!Robz.
AND, IDPTG visiting is only okay if we lynch scum.
I'm liking an Eevee lynch for those reasons AND because he's already a scum-read. If he does flip scum, then IDPTG visiting Robz would be good (I think, let me work it out.)
If IDPTG visits Robz and dies (in addition to nk), then Robz is scum. We're then at 5v2. We have to burn a lynch to get to 4v2, then we lynch him to get to 3v1. Yeah, so we just maintain our bad parity in that case. If scum uses up their nk on him, we're at 6v2. Then, even if Robz is town and active and we mislynch him, we go to 3v2, and have one more shot to get scum.
So, I think he should visit Robz? If he dies an extra death, we'll know we have to burn the extra lynch. If he lives, we know Robz is town, and we get all kinds of good stuff.
tl;dr
scum!Eevee is most dangerous scum. I think we should lynch him first.
vote: Eeveescum!ash is least dangerous, as long as we lynch him last.
@IDPTG: don't visit anyone unless we lynch scum.