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[gkrieg13]

My conspiracy theory for IDPTG is that he is not a visitor and just targeted Galz with the night kill to have an alibi if he were tracked by Teproc.  He is the best player left alive to have that alibi I think.  Without looking back at the claims I'm not entirely sure, but I think it is possible that he had to target Galzria because he didn't think through his targeting list when he posted it at the end of day, and had to choose one of the three targets to kill, in case he was tracked he could just say that he visited them.

Sorry, busy today so I'm not sure that makes much sense...

[theorel]

I want to put this in its own post, because it's unrelated to the above, and nobody seemed to care when I put it at the end of my other post.

If ash and Robz are both scum and active with 3 scum, we are essentially at mylo right NOW.  When we lynch ash we lose a town-player.  When we lynch Robz we essentially lose a town-player (nk).
If Eevee is active and scum with 1 of ash/Robz, we are also basically at mylo right NOW...except if O is town and blocks Eevee's kill.

If IDPTG is town, and ends up targeting scum with 1 of Eevee(w/no block), Robz, or ash as scum we are at mylo right NOW.

I really think that this fact is not being taken seriously enough.  There are a lot of ways for scum to get an extra kill in this game, and I really expect at least one of those players is scum. 
I'm leaning ash because he seems to be flying under-the-radar, and my completely outdated ash-meta says he doesn't do that as town.  (I'd appreciate an update, if I'm off-base here)
I can see Eevee being scum as well, his repeated "I'm being mislead" argument is super-scummy from where I'm standing.  However, he's less dangerous since his potential bonus-kill can be blocked.
I could also get behind Robz, especially knowing that mcmc is prob!town.  I found his argument against Robz yesterday very compelling.  That said, Robz is the towniest member of the trio to me.

I don't think they're all 3 scum together probably, but none of them stand out as town.  I'd really like for people to at least acknowledge this potential issue.

[theorel]

My conspiracy theory for IDPTG is that he is not a visitor and just targeted Galz with the night kill to have an alibi if he were tracked by Teproc.  He is the best player left alive to have that alibi I think.  Without looking back at the claims I'm not entirely sure, but I think it is possible that he had to target Galzria because he didn't think through his targeting list when he posted it at the end of day, and had to choose one of the three targets to kill, in case he was tracked he could just say that he visited them.

Sorry, busy today so I'm not sure that makes much sense...

He said he would target Robz, Teproc, or Galz...
I just know that if I were scum, I would not want to target Galz unless he were also scum (I would target Teproc if I'd listed myself into that corner).  If they're both scum, then we're saying that 2 scum players have both knowingly claimed to target the nk.  That's bold, and has lead to both of them drawing a lot of heat.  The IDPTG lynch was practically ready to go through yesterday.  Man, scum just doesn't paint that big a target on themselves, in order to avoid a potential tracker result.

(Note: IDPTG was likely to be tracked last night, he's the best target for it from a town perspective, much as he's the best neighborizer target for mcmc.  Because knowing who he targeted when he dies is like super-important).

Note: if this is all true, IDPTG did not bother to worry about being tracked N1, since he claimed he visited mcmc in their neighbor-thread.  This is when both potential trackers were still alive, and he was still the far-and-away best track-target.  Going from not caring to putting themselves in the hot-seat over tracking when they're killing the full-time tracker seems...really really sloppy.

[mcmcsalot]

My gut says IDPTG/RObZ are scum and one of galz/gkrieg/eevee

[gkrieg13]

My gut says IDPTG/RObZ are scum and one of galz/gkrieg/eevee

What made Robz and Galz switch places?

[mcmcsalot]

My gut says IDPTG/RObZ are scum and one of galz/gkrieg/eevee

What made Robz and Galz switch places?

Theorel's arguments and a return to reads based of scumminess and not night actions. Have wanted to lynch robz since before any of this.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

If IDPTG is town, and ends up targeting scum with 1 of Eevee(w/no block), Robz, or ash as scum we are at mylo right NOW.

Which is why we need to decide whether I should use my ability tonight. Ultimately I'll make the decision, but input is nice.

[Teproc]

I just don't have the time to reread this game, so I guess I should vote becuase I'm not helping matters here.

I think strongly theorel is town. I can't make sense of the IDPTG/Galz thing. It doesn't make sense for a scumteam to shoot Galz, I know that. I think the easier explanation is they're both town.

Mainly, what I think about day 2 is that scum was hanging back and let us bury ourselves. So mostly ash, but also Robz. Actually feel stronger about Robz, so vote: Robz

[gkrieg13]

I just don't have the time to reread this game, so I guess I should vote becuase I'm not helping matters here.

I think strongly theorel is town. I can't make sense of the IDPTG/Galz thing. It doesn't make sense for a scumteam to shoot Galz, I know that. I think the easier explanation is they're both town.

Mainly, what I think about day 2 is that scum was hanging back and let us bury ourselves. So mostly ash, but also Robz. Actually feel stronger about Robz, so vote: Robz

Why do you feel stronger about Robz? 

[Robz888]

Sorry, I’ve been playing Mario odyssey all week (mini vacation after turning in my book) and haven’t given this very much of my time.

I strongly object to the “oh theorem is making so much sense, he must be town”  arguments, however I do think he’s making sense. The more I think about it, the less I can see the scum team letting scum IDP make a mistake like that.

How about this plan: if everybody is so worried about me or ash, let’s lynch ash, I will hammer him, and if I’m still alive tonight, IDP can visit me to dispel any concern.

[Robz888]

Should be theorel, not theorem.

Ash has has not really been involving himself in the game at all and we’ve basically all just ignored it because it’s ash. But there’s absolutely nothing to his credit in the “why is he town?” column. He has barely even given reads.

If the mcmc-idp-Galz triangle of awkwardness and error is town, as is the gkrieg-teproc-O triangle of the same, scum team is... ash, Eevee, theorel. I could see it.

[Galzria]

How about this plan: if everybody is so worried about me or ash, let’s lynch ash, I will hammer him, and if I’m still alive tonight, IDP can visit me to dispel any concern.

This fails us if you and IDPTG are scum. You could be active. Ash *probably* isn't. Even if he is, that wouldn't hurt you. IDPTG could then "clear" you - but we're in MyLo at that point, which means either deciding you're both lying scum, or looking for your (1?, 2?) Remaining scummates amongst the rest of the living players.

[Robz888]

How about this plan: if everybody is so worried about me or ash, let’s lynch ash, I will hammer him, and if I’m still alive tonight, IDP can visit me to dispel any concern.

This fails us if you and IDPTG are scum. You could be active. Ash *probably* isn't. Even if he is, that wouldn't hurt you. IDPTG could then "clear" you - but we're in MyLo at that point, which means either deciding you're both lying scum, or looking for your (1?, 2?) Remaining scummates amongst the rest of the living players.

Why do you think ash is not active, but I am?

Yes if me and IDP are both scum, that’s bad. I think that’s a pretty unsupported theory though. I have gunned for IDP all game. I am currently voting for him.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

How about this plan: if everybody is so worried about me or ash, let’s lynch ash, I will hammer him, and if I’m still alive tonight, IDP can visit me to dispel any concern.

This fails us if you and IDPTG are scum. You could be active. Ash *probably* isn't. Even if he is, that wouldn't hurt you. IDPTG could then "clear" you - but we're in MyLo at that point, which means either deciding you're both lying scum, or looking for your (1?, 2?) Remaining scummates amongst the rest of the living players.

Why do you think ash is not active, but I am?

Yes if me and IDP are both scum, that’s bad. I think that’s a pretty unsupported theory though. I have gunned for IDP all game. I am currently voting for him.

And I'm already voting for you so that's cool.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Oh, and congrats on finishing your book.

[O]

Possibility: Scum knows Robz is active and are trying to burn two days of lynches on an town member.

Seriously. If Robz is active + town, you guys are putting us at LYLO with this plan. It's not a "good to get it out of the way" kind of decision here. It's a "if he's active, we're committing to him as scum" kind of decision.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Possibility: Scum knows Robz is active and are trying to burn two days of lynches on an town member.

Seriously. If Robz is active + town, you guys are putting us at LYLO with this plan. It's not a "good to get it out of the way" kind of decision here. It's a "if he's active, we're committing to him as scum" kind of decision.

Well, yes. As a general rule I try not to vote for town.

[theorel]

Possibility: Scum knows Robz is active and are trying to burn two days of lynches on an town member.

Seriously. If Robz is active + town, you guys are putting us at LYLO with this plan. It's not a "good to get it out of the way" kind of decision here. It's a "if he's active, we're committing to him as scum" kind of decision.

But if Robz is active+scum and we have some other parity disruption (say town IDPTG, or scum Eevee or scum Ash) we're already at mylo.  So, yeah I'd rather not go go to lylo by lynching Robz, but I'd also rather not lose by making a bad town-lynch.  It would be nice if our investigative role had cleared the hard lynches like Robz and Ash...but that didn't happen.  So now we're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

However, I'm reconsidering whether ash is our best target...
If we get to 2v1 with active scum-ash, we win.  If we get to 2v1 with active scum-Robz we lose.  If Robz is scum we want to lynch him early.  I'd have to run the numbers, but I think this means that we're not at mylo on account of ash, as long as we lynch him last?

@IDPTG: if we lynch scum you are good to go visiting.  If we lynch town, it depends on who it is.  Basically, if we lynch Robz or Eevee (regardless of alignment) you can visit, and if you die we're okay.  If we lynch anyone else and they're town, you need to not visit, because if Robz+Eevee are active scum then we lose on your death.

[gkrieg13]

Possibility: Scum knows Robz is active and are trying to burn two days of lynches on an town member.

Seriously. If Robz is active + town, you guys are putting us at LYLO with this plan. It's not a "good to get it out of the way" kind of decision here. It's a "if he's active, we're committing to him as scum" kind of decision.

But if Robz is active+scum and we have some other parity disruption (say town IDPTG, or scum Eevee or scum Ash) we're already at mylo.  So, yeah I'd rather not go go to lylo by lynching Robz, but I'd also rather not lose by making a bad town-lynch.  It would be nice if our investigative role had cleared the hard lynches like Robz and Ash...but that didn't happen.  So now we're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

However, I'm reconsidering whether ash is our best target...
If we get to 2v1 with active scum-ash, we win.  If we get to 2v1 with active scum-Robz we lose.  If Robz is scum we want to lynch him early.  I'd have to run the numbers, but I think this means that we're not at mylo on account of ash, as long as we lynch him last?

@IDPTG: if we lynch scum you are good to go visiting.  If we lynch town, it depends on who it is.  Basically, if we lynch Robz or Eevee (regardless of alignment) you can visit, and if you die we're okay.  If we lynch anyone else and they're town, you need to not visit, because if Robz+Eevee are active scum then we lose on your death.

If Robz and Eevee are scum, aren’t we at MYLo right now anyway?

[Teproc]

I just don't have the time to reread this game, so I guess I should vote becuase I'm not helping matters here.

I think strongly theorel is town. I can't make sense of the IDPTG/Galz thing. It doesn't make sense for a scumteam to shoot Galz, I know that. I think the easier explanation is they're both town.

Mainly, what I think about day 2 is that scum was hanging back and let us bury ourselves. So mostly ash, but also Robz. Actually feel stronger about Robz, so vote: Robz

Why do you feel stronger about Robz? 

In day 2 someone said something along the lines of "Robz is active and helpful, he's town", and that's kinda why I think he's scum. not that town!Robz can't be helpful, he's just much more... controversial than this I suppose. "Agreeable" is not something I'd say of town!Robz in general, but I would say it in this game. Now the circumstances are a bit different with Robz being focused on IRL (and yes, congrats on finishing the book!) so it never quite became a strong scum read, but I've been slightly suspicious of him all game... and the Robz v mcmc thing feels somewhat artificial too, to an extent.

ash I just don't know. He's baiting us into lynching him I think, in the hopes that he can manipulate the situation to kill someone (or use the fear of him being active to "catch" scum somehow)... scum!ash can certainly do stuff like that, but the weirder his play is, the more likely he is to be town in general.

[theorel]

Possibility: Scum knows Robz is active and are trying to burn two days of lynches on an town member.

Seriously. If Robz is active + town, you guys are putting us at LYLO with this plan. It's not a "good to get it out of the way" kind of decision here. It's a "if he's active, we're committing to him as scum" kind of decision.

But if Robz is active+scum and we have some other parity disruption (say town IDPTG, or scum Eevee or scum Ash) we're already at mylo.  So, yeah I'd rather not go go to lylo by lynching Robz, but I'd also rather not lose by making a bad town-lynch.  It would be nice if our investigative role had cleared the hard lynches like Robz and Ash...but that didn't happen.  So now we're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

However, I'm reconsidering whether ash is our best target...
If we get to 2v1 with active scum-ash, we win.  If we get to 2v1 with active scum-Robz we lose.  If Robz is scum we want to lynch him early.  I'd have to run the numbers, but I think this means that we're not at mylo on account of ash, as long as we lynch him last?

@IDPTG: if we lynch scum you are good to go visiting.  If we lynch town, it depends on who it is.  Basically, if we lynch Robz or Eevee (regardless of alignment) you can visit, and if you die we're okay.  If we lynch anyone else and they're town, you need to not visit, because if Robz+Eevee are active scum then we lose on your death.

If Robz and Eevee are scum, aren’t we at MYLo right now anyway?

Yeah, sorry, I was being dumb with that whole post (almost).  Here's the correct version:
@O: If we lynch ANY town we're at MYLO at best (already lost at worst).  The only difference with lynching an active town-Robz is that we're at LYLO instead of MYLO.  I think generally LYLO is preferrable if you can swing it for good reason.

Suppose Robz+Ash are active scum.  We're at 7v3 right now...we lynch town and go to 5v3.  Then we have to lynch Robz, we go 4v3, then 3v2.  Then we have to pick out the non-ash scum, and get to 2v1, then lynch ash and hit 1v0 and win.
Suppose Robz+Eevee are active scum.  7v3->5v3 after town lynch.  Then we lynch Robz, but Eevee shoots town, and we end up with 2v2 and lose.  If O blocks Eevee's kill, we can prevent this.  But, if not we lose.  There are several reasons O could fail to block Eevee's kill, such as him being nk'd or being scum.

So, this is why I was reconsidering whether we should lynch ash today...and I think that's a good reason not to. unvote

So, what if we DO lynch Robz today (and tomorrow) and he's active?
Suppose he's town:
We go to 4v3.  If Eevee is (unblocked) active scum we lose, or if IDPTG visits scum we lose.  (we can still defeat active-scum ash by lynching him last).

After more thought, there's a very simple reason we could fail to block Eevee, even if O is town, which is if he's nk'd.  That doesn't mean that his nk implicates Eevee it just enables him.
Okay, what if we lynch Eevee?
Suppose he's town:
we go to 5v3.  If Robz is active!scum, and we realize this, we lynch him next->3v2, then we lynch the remaining 2 scum and win (lynching ash last, if scum).

So, moral of the story: burning a lynch on active town!Robz is just as bad as burning it on active scum!Robz.
AND, IDPTG visiting is only okay if we lynch scum.

I'm liking an Eevee lynch for those reasons AND because he's already a scum-read.  If he does flip scum, then IDPTG visiting Robz would be good (I think, let me work it out.)
If IDPTG visits Robz and dies (in addition to nk), then Robz is scum.  We're then at 5v2.  We have to burn a lynch to get to 4v2, then we lynch him to get to 3v1.  Yeah, so we just maintain our bad parity in that case.  If scum uses up their nk on him, we're at 6v2.  Then, even if Robz is town and active and we mislynch him, we go to 3v2, and have one more shot to get scum.
So, I think he should visit Robz?  If he dies an extra death, we'll know we have to burn the extra lynch.  If he lives, we know Robz is town, and we get all kinds of good stuff.

tl;dr
scum!Eevee is most dangerous scum.  I think we should lynch him first.  vote: Eevee
scum!ash is least dangerous, as long as we lynch him last.
@IDPTG: don't visit anyone unless we lynch scum.

[mcmcsalot]

Updated Post Count

Teproc 136-3= 133
Galzria 130-3= 127
O 120-1= 119
Robz888 106-3= 103
mcmcsalot 103-1= 102
gkrieg13 95-2= 93
ashersky 73-1= 72
AndrewisFTTW/eevee 7+44-3= 48
IDontPlayThisGame 52-5= 47
chairs/theorel 20+20-1= 39

[mcmcsalot]

vote: robz I think he's definitely scum, if he is active lynching him is better now then later because it forces scum to kill some other town players.

[Robz888]

vote: robz I think he's definitely scum, if he is active lynching him is better now then later because it forces scum to kill some other town players.

You've got blinders on, bro. As theorel laid out, it's better to leave me alive here (since you don't have to kill me yet) and let IDP investigate me. And if IDP lies about me, then at least I know he was scum after all and can argue it with confidence, though I've increasingly talked myself out of this position.

Granted, IDP definitely should have investigated me already, but oh well, townies makes mistakes.

Vote: Eevee, per theorel's argument.

[Robz888]

I just don't have the time to reread this game, so I guess I should vote becuase I'm not helping matters here.

I think strongly theorel is town. I can't make sense of the IDPTG/Galz thing. It doesn't make sense for a scumteam to shoot Galz, I know that. I think the easier explanation is they're both town.

Mainly, what I think about day 2 is that scum was hanging back and let us bury ourselves. So mostly ash, but also Robz. Actually feel stronger about Robz, so vote: Robz

Why do you feel stronger about Robz? 

In day 2 someone said something along the lines of "Robz is active and helpful, he's town", and that's kinda why I think he's scum. not that town!Robz can't be helpful, he's just much more... controversial than this I suppose. "Agreeable" is not something I'd say of town!Robz in general, but I would say it in this game. Now the circumstances are a bit different with Robz being focused on IRL (and yes, congrats on finishing the book!) so it never quite became a strong scum read, but I've been slightly suspicious of him all game... and the Robz v mcmc thing feels somewhat artificial too, to an extent.

ash I just don't know. He's baiting us into lynching him I think, in the hopes that he can manipulate the situation to kill someone (or use the fear of him being active to "catch" scum somehow)... scum!ash can certainly do stuff like that, but the weirder his play is, the more likely he is to be town in general.

I don't think I "hung back" on Day 2, and I definitely don't think I've been helpful and townie. I've been helpful in the sense that I've actually worked to progress the game, but I've gotten just about every single call wrong, from the DatSwan lynch to my mcmc read to (I think) IDP to Galzria being scummy (this still could be but mehhhh). This is actually a good argument for why town!Robz needs to get nightkilled early, because let in the game my game-long bad reads make it so that I don't have the credibility I need to avoid getting lynched late game.