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[O]

after careful consideration i've decided to return to my original position.

Scummy: you guys
Not scummy: me, mostly. Maybe Eevee. But I literally never scumread the guy so I never trust this townread.


This is not really a spot I enjoy being in. Although I admit it still feels better than me being lynched.

[Galzria]

vote: idptg

I don't think he's a PR, and I don't think he targeted me (or mcmc for that matter).

[O]

I definitely don't think IDPTG is scum AND a PR AND targeted Galzria. Those things combined would be too stupid.. More stupid than targeting Galzria as town, which was already stupid.

But he could always have been scum + pr + tried to kill Galzria, thus making his action claim a safe one from the potential Teproc track.

[Teproc]

Ok, so I still haven't had the time to reread, but on the mcmc thing:

mcmc is very likely town
Galz and IDPTG are most likely not scum together
IDPTG seems super scummy

Right ? His choice of targets is 100% that of a scum Neighborizer : clearing the guy who neighborized him to gain his confidence, and then neighborizing someone who's about to die... except nope, Galz didn't die. I guess that involves scum shooting Galz, which is pretty dangerous... maybe that doesn't work after all ?

Hm. Ok, so does Galz/IDPTG make sense after all ? Eh, maybe. I still need to reread I think.

[mcmcsalot]

Ok, so I still haven't had the time to reread, but on the mcmc thing:

mcmc is very likely town
Galz and IDPTG are most likely not scum together
IDPTG seems super scummy

Right ? His choice of targets is 100% that of a scum Neighborizer : clearing the guy who neighborized him to gain his confidence, and then neighborizing someone who's about to die... except nope, Galz didn't die. I guess that involves scum shooting Galz, which is pretty dangerous... maybe that doesn't work after all ?

Hm. Ok, so does Galz/IDPTG make sense after all ? Eh, maybe. I still need to reread I think.

This

[theorel]

Are you saying scum knows every active role or they managed to choose EFHW N1 and therefore aim the N2 kill?

Also, no, I wouldn't. Off the top of my head, gkrieg and O can mess with my results and so could Galz if I made a mistake and targeted him. So no, active!me wouldn't have cleared two people. Also, faust was killed N1 and was on my list. So a faust result wouldn't be very useful.

I just don't even...Why would you breadcrumb your useless Galz result, and not your useful mcmc result?  I mean, yes you can be blocked/redirected, but it's really pretty unlikely, especially when O has already claimed to block Teproc N1.  The only narrative I can think of here, is that he wanted to be able to claim he didn't target mcmc here, which also fits with his "scumread" on mcmc D2.

@mcmc did IDPTG claim to target Galz before or after Galz claimed EFHW as his target?  If after, then he could have used the claim to be safe from Tracking, but if before then it requires Galz to be scum for that to work.  Unless scum did target Galz for the kill...I guess that makes sense.
His pseudo-claim of visiting faust N1 fits into the same narrative potentially, even though if he was paying attention he would know that no one could claim his N1 target, and know that he'd already claimed to mcmc that he visited him.

Yeah, the more I talk about it, the most reasonable narrative here to me is scum slipping up.  vote: IDPTG (L-2).

[Eevee]

I’m behind this lynch. Do we want more discussion?

Pretty sure if I vote the day will end very soon, some people love their dear hammer time so.

[mcmcsalot]

@theorel IDPTG did claim to target galz’s pretty much as soon as day started multiple hours before galz claimed to redirect to efhw. Idptg also immediately realized his mistake.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

I did target mcmc N1 and Galz N2. I think it's most likely town!mcmc but I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility of scum wasting multiple PRs to get me to trust him.

Are you saying scum knows every active role or they managed to choose EFHW N1 and therefore aim the N2 kill?

Also, no, I wouldn't. Off the top of my head, gkrieg and O can mess with my results and so could Galz if I made a mistake and targeted him. So no, active!me wouldn't have cleared two people. Also, faust was killed N1 and was on my list. So a faust result wouldn't be very useful.

I just don't even...Why would you breadcrumb your useless Galz result, and not your useful mcmc result?  I mean, yes you can be blocked/redirected, but it's really pretty unlikely, especially when O has already claimed to block Teproc N1.  The only narrative I can think of here, is that he wanted to be able to claim he didn't target mcmc here, which also fits with his "scumread" on mcmc D2.

@mcmc did IDPTG claim to target Galz before or after Galz claimed EFHW as his target?  If after, then he could have used the claim to be safe from Tracking, but if before then it requires Galz to be scum for that to work.  Unless scum did target Galz for the kill...I guess that makes sense.
His pseudo-claim of visiting faust N1 fits into the same narrative potentially, even though if he was paying attention he would know that no one could claim his N1 target, and know that he'd already claimed to mcmc that he visited him.

Yeah, the more I talk about it, the most reasonable narrative here to me is scum slipping up.  vote: IDPTG (L-2).

What? The "scumread" you mention was real. It's unlikely that scum did all of that, but as I said above, it isn't entirely out of the picture. How was that a pseudo-claim of faust? And why would scum!me bother saying I targeted faust when I know mcmc could turn around and say, "no, you said you targeted me"?

[IDontPlayThisGame]

Ok, so I still haven't had the time to reread, but on the mcmc thing:

mcmc is very likely town
Galz and IDPTG are most likely not scum together
IDPTG seems super scummy

Right ? His choice of targets is 100% that of a scum Neighborizer : clearing the guy who neighborized him to gain his confidence, and then neighborizing someone who's about to die... except nope, Galz didn't die. I guess that involves scum shooting Galz, which is pretty dangerous... maybe that doesn't work after all ?

Hm. Ok, so does Galz/IDPTG make sense after all ? Eh, maybe. I still need to reread I think.

Except I'm a Weak Visitor, not a Neighborizer. That's mcmc.

[Teproc]

Yes yes, I know that I just wrote the wrong thing.

@Eevee: I would bve very opposed to the day ending now. i'll try to find some time for this tonight.

[theorel]

What? The "scumread" you mention was real. It's unlikely that scum did all of that, but as I said above, it isn't entirely out of the picture. How was that a pseudo-claim of faust? And why would scum!me bother saying I targeted faust when I know mcmc could turn around and say, "no, you said you targeted me"?

So, here's the thing.  As a town player, with the ability to clear other players, you should generally just believe your results.  The off-chance that you've been blocked is just so small, that you don't entertain a significant belief that your result is false, rather your result biases how you read everything and you just take the town-read.  As scum with a cleared townie (either due to actual PR use, or because you're lying about it), you do everything you can to maintain the "possibility" that this town-player is scum.  This is why scum-you does everything you can to avoid actually clearing mcmc in-thread.  The only target from N1 you mentioned was faust, in a post where you SO EASILY could have mentioned mcmc.  There's a couple of ways I can explain this with you as scum.
1. You wanted to be able to accuse mcmc, and deny his claim that you targeted him at lylo in order to keep a mislynch possibility open.
2. You had considered at some point claiming that you targeted faust, because you actually did target him with the NK.  So, it was the first thing on your mind (rather than the mcmc targeting).

Now, we come to the scum-read on mcmc.  Again this makes no sense at all.  There are 2 possibilities:
1. gkrieg and mcmc are a scum-team, not know if you may be active or not, decided to use one of their 2 redirects to make you read town on mcmc.  Okay, this isn't as far-fetched as I initially thought, since you said you would target gkrieg, mcmc, or faust, and so of course, with the faust kill, the only redirect that works here is to hope to clear scum.  Killing you with the redirect, or letting you die would put a lot of heat on that proposed scum-team.  I see you reasoning, it's bad, but it makes sense.  Essentially, if you were right and mcmc/gkrieg were a scum-team, then you could doubt your result out of paranoia.  I think this is poor play generally, because it requires you to have nearly-blindly picked out 2 of the scum-team, which is so highly unlikely that you should assign a very low likelihood to that result, and a very high likelihood to the town-mcmc result. unvote
2. O, teproc, and mcmc are the scum-team and O blocked you specifically, and it just so happened to work out.

For the record, I still think your reasoning is unreasonable, I just think it was unreasonable town, rather than slipping scum.  In particular your desire to know gkrieg's alignment/activeness.  Basically all of your posting makes sense yesterday, given this reasoning.

Okay, I'm gonna rethink on this for a bit, I really don't think all of these active roles are town.
mcmc-basically confirmed town IMO.
IDPTG-I think he's probably town.
Galzria-null-at-best
O-I'm starting to lean a bit more scum here, but it's him or O not both
Teproc-still think he's gotta be town.  He can just claim to be inactive, or refuse to claim target...I don't think scum brings up targeting faust N1, in order to get partner-O to claim, or in hopes of mislynching O/gkrieg.
Joseph/EFHW-clearly town.

So, we could certainly lynch here somewhere in hopes of hitting scum...but...I'm ending up really strongly leaning town on so many of these players.  What if exactly 1 is scum?  This suggests that town got a lot of PRs.  Now, there's 1 really good reason to give town this many PRs...because ash and Robz are scum and active.
ash will take a town with him, Robz will take 2 lynches.  If that's the case, this is actually mylo, not because of 4 scum, but simply because of what it's going to take for us to win as town.
I'm going back to vote: ash.

[ashersky]

I’m active? 

[gkrieg13]

My guess is EFHW was killed because she was possibly a strong PR, not because her reads were either really good or really bad or something.

It's sort of interesting EFHW got killed instead of Teproc, though.

After thinking more, I agree with this.  Given mass-claim, scum knows exactly who to target based on role.  They killed the doctor first, then the full-time Tracker.

Regarding killing with good reads, I think it probably happens more late-game.  Galz in M100 did that, right?  i.e. he killed O, even though O thought he was town? I mostly just looked over post-game.  I think scum more frequently avoids killing people with good reads out of paranoia, even though it's usually the better move, because people will seldom rethink their reads based on surviving.

I agree it happens in the late game, but it doesn't usually happen when people are not very vocal about their reads.  EFHW doesn't strike me as the kind of person to push to make sure her scum reads get lynched, so I think scum probably killed her because they knew she was active.

[gkrieg13]

I had a bad feeling when the lynch went through so easily yesterday. It seems like we are doing what scum wants us to be doing.

This gives me the scums.  It doesn't really offer anything, and tries to put blame on other people.

[Teproc]

I had a bad feeling when the lynch went through so easily yesterday. It seems like we are doing what scum wants us to be doing.

This gives me the scums.  It doesn't really offer anything, and tries to put blame on other people.

While it gives me the towns because I feel the exact same way. I agree it's not productive in and of itself though.

[gkrieg13]

Well, I either saved myself and killed EFHW, or did nothing.

I redirected to EFHW last night. I don't -believe- scum tried to kill me (especially if I'm correct in my stated reads from yesterday), so I think the kill was natural. The only thing above me in priority (still alive/possible) is Gkrieg, and I doubt he messed with much.

My thought process was that O, if town, was likely to target me to Roleblock. He got ascetic wrong and I was hopeful he got order resolution wrong as well. I also thought scum would have a player with lesser suspicion perform the kill so I didn't want to re-target  to a top read. That brought me to Robz/EFHW as my top two scummy-but-under-the-radar choices. I picked EFHW.

With that said, Robz and Theorel both come across as scum here:

Robz's "Sure would be nice to have more information here" sounds like he knows, as scum, that they tried to shoot me last night but EFHW wound up dead. Like he has foresight into shenanigans.

Theorel takes it a step further - again, his post reads like he knows that I must come out with this information, and is looking to preempt it by calling me out as scum. It's very direct and very targeted, and it explains why he's having trouble even justifying his own case.

With 10 alive (3 scum), a mislynch today places the game into into MyLo {8, 3} tomorrow.

This indicates that O is -probably- Town, as I believe that if scum targeted me to kill then it's because they believed I would redirect to my biggest scum read.

I'll go with a vote: Robz for now.

On another note:

Claimed or known PR's:

Joseph
EFHW
Mcmc
Galz
Teproc
O

Mcmc, who did you target for neighborizer N1?

Galz, you kind of go back and forth here.  You give O a townread because you think that scum targeted you, but say at the beginning that scum probably didn't target you with the kill.

[gkrieg13]

Look, everybody all good with lynching me just like Swan. You're all so gullible it's ridiculous. Pay attention people, and stop being sheep. Use those individual thinking skills and actually look for scum.

I don't think Robz is especially scummy.  His comment about it being nice to have info makes sense.  It seems like we have a lot of roles that should out scum, but that none of them have actually done much.  What do you think about IDPTG?

[Galzria]

Well, I either saved myself and killed EFHW, or did nothing.

I redirected to EFHW last night. I don't -believe- scum tried to kill me (especially if I'm correct in my stated reads from yesterday), so I think the kill was natural. The only thing above me in priority (still alive/possible) is Gkrieg, and I doubt he messed with much.

My thought process was that O, if town, was likely to target me to Roleblock. He got ascetic wrong and I was hopeful he got order resolution wrong as well. I also thought scum would have a player with lesser suspicion perform the kill so I didn't want to re-target  to a top read. That brought me to Robz/EFHW as my top two scummy-but-under-the-radar choices. I picked EFHW.

With that said, Robz and Theorel both come across as scum here:

Robz's "Sure would be nice to have more information here" sounds like he knows, as scum, that they tried to shoot me last night but EFHW wound up dead. Like he has foresight into shenanigans.

Theorel takes it a step further - again, his post reads like he knows that I must come out with this information, and is looking to preempt it by calling me out as scum. It's very direct and very targeted, and it explains why he's having trouble even justifying his own case.

With 10 alive (3 scum), a mislynch today places the game into into MyLo {8, 3} tomorrow.

This indicates that O is -probably- Town, as I believe that if scum targeted me to kill then it's because they believed I would redirect to my biggest scum read.

I'll go with a vote: Robz for now.

On another note:

Claimed or known PR's:

Joseph
EFHW
Mcmc
Galz
Teproc
O

Mcmc, who did you target for neighborizer N1?

Galz, you kind of go back and forth here.  You give O a townread because you think that scum targeted you, but say at the beginning that scum probably didn't target you with the kill.

I'm aware. It's because I'm fighting my own bias of seeing him as scum. By the conclusion, and more so now, I'm leaning towards a scum team of: {Theorel, IDPTG, Robz/Eevee}

[gkrieg13]

Why would I redirect you? I don't believe scum!O does the NK, and I don't believe scum try and kill me if you're scum because of the CHANCE that I redirect to you.

Seriously, what at all do I gain by redirecting to you if I think you're scum?

As far as I understand, I think you are understanding your own role incorrectly.  Can't you just deflect off yourself onto another player?  Wouldn't you always want to deflect to your highest scum read?  Because it doesn't actually matter if O performs the night kill, he would still be the one that is actually killed.

[gkrieg13]

Vote: ash

I'm not not suspicious of Galzria, but this doesn't seem like something that he would need to lie about if he was scum. Interested to hear what mcmc has to say, I'd like to update my read on him.

(Robz's case on Galzria interests me as well, if it's still coming.)

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying here.  Are you saying that you think that Galzria did lie with who he targeted, or are you giving him town points for "not lying"?

[gkrieg13]

However, I think he already knew that EFHW was an activated Tracker, and he didn't manage to filter that information out of his reasoning.

How did scum!Galz know EFHW was active N2?

I think you can word oracle questions such that scum!Galz could actually know that EFHW was active. 

[Galzria]

Why would I redirect you? I don't believe scum!O does the NK, and I don't believe scum try and kill me if you're scum because of the CHANCE that I redirect to you.

Seriously, what at all do I gain by redirecting to you if I think you're scum?

As far as I understand, I think you are understanding your own role incorrectly.  Can't you just deflect off yourself onto another player?  Wouldn't you always want to deflect to your highest scum read?  Because it doesn't actually matter if O performs the night kill, he would still be the one that is actually killed.

Right - but I really didn't think scum would shoot me if O is scum because of the high probability of exactly that. It's FAR more likely scum shoot me if O is Town, expecting me to redirect to him.

Now, yes, I scum read him strongly - but if I was right and he was scum then (as I didn't think he would perform the nk), all I would be doing by redirecting to him is potentially blocking him from... blocking me? I don't even know how that would resolve.

In the end, my redirecting to ANYBODY should've done nothing at all (and perhaps, even, it didn't) because NOBODY should be targeting me. IF scum choose to shoot me, then it likely meant my read on O was wrong - and possibly (if not probably) most of my reads in general.

[gkrieg13]

Actually, I'll do it now.

D1: not a whole lot of posts and no vote at the end which helped contribute to a no-lynch scenario that was barely avoided

Yeah. Not much to say there other than my previous explanation. Bad play and rather anti-town. I wasn't at training every day and it's not too much to ask for me to sit down and spend 30-60 minutes on this game each IRL day.

D2: similar lack of posts and bad hammer

I went for the hammer because O had already posted intent to hammer, I had a scumread on DatSwan, and since PR has nothing to do with alignment there wasn't much I felt DatSwan could say to sway my opinion at that point.

Anything I'm forgetting? I haven't done much this game so this ended up shorter than I thought it was going to be.

This isn't meant to "absolve [me] of the responsibility of [my] actions and votes", just to give everyone context and my opinion. If people have questions, I'll try to be around to answer them today.

While you are doing this, you should answer the question that Theorel posed here:

I think IDPTG's hammer is also suspicious.  He didn't want to put DatSwan to L-1, but then after Robz goaded him, he was fine with hammering.  I'd like to hear an explanation there as to why he changed his mind that severely...after all L-1 doesn't end the day, it just adds more pressure.  Datswan still could have responded at that point, for instance.  The hammer ends all discussion for certain.

Good point. vote: Robz

[gkrieg13]

However, I think he already knew that EFHW was an activated Tracker, and he didn't manage to filter that information out of his reasoning.

How did scum!Galz know EFHW was active N2?

I'm supposing that scum used their Master Hand questions to determine which power roles were active.  This is the best explanation I have for the EFHW death.  I don't see a world where scum takes the chance of shooting Galzria as claimed diverter.  That's a crazy level of risk.

I think I got this right, though I haven't gone back to check: Scum first was able to ask Master Hand questions N1.  They were answered at the end of N1/beginning of D2. 
Now we get into the speculation:
Scum intentionally shot EFHW over Teproc or O.  This suggests to me that scum knew that EFHW was active (I'm of course assuming Teproc/O are town here.  If I'm wrong about that, well all of my arguments fail).
The way that scum would know that is through the Master Hand questions (since the mass-claim conveniently told scum exactly who had which power...mass-claims are bad!)
Assuming that is the case, then scum knew heading into D2 that EFHW was active.
Teproc and O claim, mcmc was already known to be active at that point, Joseph was also known to be active, and dead.

Now, if we assume that those players are all town, and Galzria is scum with this extra information.  Galzria attempts to put himself in town-Galzria's shoes.  He sees 4 town power roles, +1 he secretly knows of, +himself.  He says, "this is too many power roles", and "O/Teproc power role interaction is convenient, so they are the ones that would give me most doubt were I town with this info."  He proceeds to make that argument in thread for a while, even though most other people expressed that it didn't feel like too many power roles...even knowing that Galzria was one (as he claimed part-way through).  Now we all know that EFHW is active...and that actually does feel like it might be too many power roles (to me).  My thinking was that if Galzria had that information yesterday, then his argument makes more sense.

That said, I went back and looked at his arguments...and he consistently got the number of players in this game wrong.  He kept saying it was ~7 power roles out of 12 or 13 players, when there are(were) in fact 14 players in this game.  In much the same way that 1 more PR makes things seem more reasonable, 1-2 fewer players also makes his argument more reasonable.  We're certainly on the upper-end of PR quantity in this game...
Bah, I don't want to give this up...I liked scum-galz theory.  I like the idea of him and idptg getting on-wagon when they know the NK will be off-wagon, in order to avoid scrutiny.  But, I'm probably subjecting myself to confirmation-bias.  Thinking is hard.  Bah, unvote

btw, @IDPTG:I doubt you're active (based on # of PR arguments above), but if you are, and you've visited people...you have 2 players that you know are town.  You don't have to find scum to be useful...and if you are active, and want to conceal that fact, make sure you breadcrumb who you've cleared. Because that makes the whole finding scum in death thing more useful than just a 1-for-1 trade.

This post makes me have a town read on Theorel (among other things).  I think this thought process it townie (but I will admit that it also mimics my own thought process, which gives me a town read on theorel).