Uhhh I never said TWM and faust were definitely town. And I'm not convinced Jake and DatSwan are town either. All I said was I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 scum were voting. When I said "I don't think it's unlikely that all 3 scum were on wagons" I meant that to mean everyone voting, so including Jake. Also, like I said you're being condescending and trying to make me look like some idiot, which I don't appreciate and which I'm not doing to you. So please cut that out.
It's not condescension - it's that your logic doesn't follow, and hasn't been thought out. You're making statements to just make them, hoping they'll stick.
The wagon at peak on Jake was:
Vote Count 1.4
faust (1): Roadrunner7671
Robz888 (3): Galzria, chairs, Xxraptorslayer96
JaketheBaseballGod22 (5): faust, Robz888, The_Wine_Merchant, Skumpy, gkrieg13
Skumpy (1): JaketheBaseballGod22
Not voting (3): DatSwan, Teproc, AndrewisFTTW
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends Sunday, August 6 at 1:00 pm forum time. I am VLA till tomorrow,
so the twilight will be quite long, sorry for any inconvenience.
The end of day looked like this:
Vote Count 1.final:
Robz888 (7): Galzria, chairs, Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671, Teproc
JaketheBaseballGod22 (3): faust, Robz888, The_Wine_Merchant
Skumpy (1): JaketheBaseballGod22
Not voting (2): DatSwan, AndrewisFTTW
Robz was town. Jake is unknown, but is 1 of 2 alignments. Either he IS town, or he IS scum. There are no other options.
Now, you're statement - "I don't think it's unlikely that all 3 scum were on wagons", even including Jake per your latest post, means you believe that you (obviously) and DatSwan are town. To state otherwise is to simply say that your rebuttal to my analysis is simply "No, I think anybody could be scum". I'm at least TRYING to break down wagons and voting patterns based on the logic that Jake either IS or IS NOT scum.
Now, options 1 and options 2.
1) Jake is scum
1.A) He was being bussed early in the day, he was being bussed later in the day:
- If Jake was being bussed early by somebody that left wagon, the only option is Skumpy, as Gkrieg flipped town. You have a town read on Skumpy (see your reads posted at the bottom - directly quoted).
- If Jake was being bussed early by somebody that did NOT leave the wagon, then you're looking at faust or TWM. TWM you have a stated town read on (see below), and faust you've continually agreed with (see below).
1.B) He wasn't bussed.
- This then puts the two remaining scum here: Galzria, chairs, Xxraptorslayer96, Skumpy, gkrieg13, Roadrunner7671
- Gkrieg was town. Skumpy you have a town read on. Roadrunner you have a town read on. So from your perspective, the scum team (if Jake is scum) is: Jake/Galzria/XxRaptor (or Chairs)
2) Jake is town
2.A) Scum was voting Jake at some point
- First off, to match your "I don't think it's unlikely that all 3 scum were on wagons", then scum would need to have been split either 2-1, or 3-0. Neither of which fits your follow up thought that "I don't think it would necessarily have made the lynch easier" - that's EXACTLY what scum voting would've done here if Jake is town. They were giving one of the wagons between 2 and 3 votes if they're all onboard!
- Again, it doesn't appear you think TWM or faust are scum based on your previous posts, so we'll need to disregard them. Same goes for Skumpy. So you don't seem to think that scum was voting for Jake. And in this scenario, Jake is town, so he's out too. Plus Robz who was town and Gkrieg, and we're left with... Galzria, chairs, Xxraptorslayer96, Roadrunner7671... but you also have a town read on Roadrunner. So if Jake is town, your scum team is: Galzria/Chairs/XxRaptor.
Now, you've never gone through and spelled all that out, but it's ok. So yeah, based on all the above everything you've said matches 100%. You don't think it's unlikely that all the scum were voting, because all the scum were {Galzria} + 2 of {Chairs/XxRaptor/Jake}. Do I have that right?
Listed below are your current reads:
TWM, Town:
Well I do think TWM is acting towny, but if Galz flips scum I'll be looking at TWM.
Chairs, scummy:
But then why would scum be trying to no lynch if they could just get a mislynch instead? I DON'T UNDERSTAND.
Ok I missed a bunch of stuff yesterday so I'm catching up again. This^ however, I find very scummy. Holding off on a vote until I catch up completely. Also, as of the end of page 20 I'm not feeling a Jake Lynch simply b cause he's not contributing much. I'm not contributing much either, that doesn't make me scum.
---> Which leads to Jake, back and forth (see above), then:
About Jake. This is his wagon at peak:
JaketheBaseballGod22 (5): faust, Robz888, The_Wine_Merchant, Skumpy, gkrieg13
Both players who since flipped town are on there. I am town, of course you don't know that, and I have town reads on TWM and Skumpy. So it is very much possible that this is an all-town wagon. Which is definitely interesting for an easy mislynch like Jake.
It also was not a quick wagon, but happened over the course of a hundred posts, plenty of time for scum to join in unsuspiciously.
So yeah, combined with the 1-shot Commuter thing (which I remember at the beginning of the game and then forgot) that I think makes Galzria more likely to be town, I am ready to vote: Jake again.
^I agree with all this. Good work faust.
I meant Jake is NOT doing anything I wouldn't expect Jake to do.
RoadRunner: Town
I wanted to point out that RR is townie for his last-minute vote. I think scum!RR is more likely to let the deadline pass and force a no-lynch than to be the decisive vote on a town wagon.
I don't think so. If scum!RR has a chance to hammer town then he'll go for it. Also:
I'd rather lynch Jake than Robz, although no one really seems like a good lynch candidate for today. It's been sort of a slow D1 for me.
He says he prefers a Jake lynch but doesn't put his vote there, then disappears until the hammer. So I guess you could point to him maybe protecting a partner? But on the other hand he could've just as easily have put an earlier vote down on Robz if that was the case. Yeah I think I agree with faust on him being pretty towny.
Skumpy: Town
BTW, people should reread gkrieg.
I think this is the most important section:
So, town are TWM, chairs, skumpy, tentatively Faust, galz, Andrew
Scum are RR, Jake, and probably XX? Could also be Robz, or datswan.
The town read on Galzria confuses me because gkrieg points out some scummy things before that, but there you go. I think gkrieg gets killed for accurate town reads, and well it helps that I also think Skumpy, chairs, TWM are town.
Almost caught up. Just wanted to say I agree on those town reads, at least Skumpy and TWM. Skumpy I don't think can make up everything he's been saying as scum. TWM is overly-dramatic as usual, that means he's town. chairs I'm not really sure about.