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[faust]

No, I don't think you're scummier than LaLight. I think my order goes like:

Sudgy >>>>> O = LaLight >>> Faust & Others

Why is sudgy so scummy in your eyes?

[O]

I really don't like this.

Vote Count 5.4

iguanaiguana (6): faust, SpaceAnemone, RoadRunner7671, Dylan32, Awaclus, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (3): LaLight, O, sudgy

Not Voting (2): Galzria, Jimmmmm

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch.

Currently on faust: O, Sudgy, LaLight & Roadrunner.

For the [at least 1] town of you that have found yourself on both Space (especially after the Iguana flip) and this one... really? Do you believe the others are town?

Road, do you think all three people on both wagons are town? If they're all town then the lynch on Iguana (which took 6 of 11 and didn't include Jimmm) is really weird, isn't it? Why did that go through?

Scum!Faust is a really, really bad prospect for us. But I just absolutely don't see it. Faust being scum, based on wagons doesn't make sense.

Space also being scum resolves all those concerns, but apparently being statistically more likely to be scum than anyone else left alive is obvtown for everyone here.

So why are you not voting for Space?

I was, certainly nobody seemed interested.

[LaLight]

I am fine with faust or Space lynch

[faust]

I am fine with faust or Space lynch

Of course you are.

[faust]

Less than 6 hours to deadline. Who is around?

[faust]

Request prods on Dylan and Awaclus

[faust]

The way I see it, 2 votes on sudgy, 3 on me, 1 on LaLight?

I prefer LaLight over sudgy by a decent amount.

[SpaceAnemone]

Request prods on Dylan and Awaclus

Dylan has a VLA in force till July 4th. I find this inconvenient, because to me he makes sense as an LL-partner, but I expect the root cause is summer holiday rather than scumminess directly :-P

[SpaceAnemone]

Less than 6 hours to deadline. Who is around?

Should be around for the deadline, though may be away in between for going home/supermarket/cooking food, assuming I can debug the rest of my work problems in good time...

[Dylan32]

I will vote LL or sudgy. I don't see it on faust today. I know I was afraid of losing to him, but I don't trust the wagon on him at all right now...

[Roadrunner7671]

Vote: LaLight

[LaLight]

I am here and there, will try to present, but weekend, you know

[Galzria]

I'm at work all day today and will not be active at deadline.

The reasons I prefer Sudgy:

1) I think his vote, reasoning, and timing for Space d5 far exceeds LL or O in the "scum trying to derail a partner lynch" category.

2) Ash's "lynch from the top down" comment, followed by iguana agreeing with it - up until it was brought up yesterday and then all of a sudden iguana pushed hard AF to distance himself from it.

3) My belief that Faust is town makes Sudgy pushing his lynch way worse than LaLight pushing for my null read on Space or slight scum read on O. The fact that LL is willing to vote Faust feels more like preservation than scum pushing a probable town lynch.

[O]

I'm somewhat around. How many hours til deadline?

Galz tell me who to vote for and I'll sheep it I guess, willing to lynch anyone but Me/you/Awaclus over NoLynch.

Looks like you find Sudgy scummier but less people are currently on him making him the harder lynch. So direct me.

[SpaceAnemone]

Okay, so here's the one thing that makes me hesitant about a sudgy lynch, and still keen on an LL lynch.

#1 faust, 2-shot vig (slot 1)
#2 ?
#3 Jimmmmm, original Mason (slot 6)
#4 mcmc, Hammer Hero (slot 9)
#5 LL, VT (went for slot 1)
#6 e, SK, 1-Shot Bus Driver (claims slot 13; definitely can't have been 6)
#7 sudgy, VT (went for slot 6)
#8 Dylan, VT (went for slot 13)
#9 Eevee, was VT, became Mason. (went for slot 6)
#10 Awaclus, VT
#11 iguana, VT (went for slot 13) but was a scum goon.
#12 ashersky, claimed Role Cop (slot 4?) but was a scum goon.
#13 TWM, Hider (Slot 10)
#14 JR, VT
#15 PPS, restless sheeper (slot 2)
#16 ?
#17 Jake, Tracker (slot 12)
#18 Space, VT (went for slot 12)
#19 RR, VT (went for slot 13)
#20 Galz, Jailkeeper (slot 11)
#21 O, VT (went for slot?)
#22 ?
#23 ?

Sudgy claimed VT, draft position #7 and slot 6 all in post #2867, which is much earlier than most of the rest of the slot claims, because he claimed more information than he was supposed to in the first round of the claiming exercise. That could mean he had insider info that slot 6 was already taken, or it could be a very lucky guess. I feel like slot #6 isn't going to have been a top scum pick, and all three scums who've flipped so far have been goons. Am I missing a reason why this doesn't make things kind of unlikely?

Faust claimed vig at #2678, so that's about 200 posts before sudgy's claim. That's a much more plausible slot to go for as a hiding place for a high-ish-placed scum trying to claim VT, if they'd rather do that than risk a fake PR claim. And it's the slot LL says he went for at post #3190 (having claimed VT and draft position #5 at #2968). LL was very low down in Awaclus's claiming order.

Dylan claimed VT and draft position #8 at post#2918. Jimmmmm was above him in the claiming order, but was awol during the first round of claims, and then claimed Eevee's draft position at #2943. Dylan claimed in #3096 that he bid for slot 13 and didn't get it. At #2958, e claimed VT, and then at #2991, he claimed draft order #19 and slot 13.

So this angle of analysis makes it look to me like LL is the right lynch target for today: he's high in the draft order (so we might expect him to be more likely than other potential scums to be a non-goon), he had a totally safe slot to claim, because faust had claimed it 500 posts earlier, and he was very low down in the claiming order, so he'd pretty much seen everything everyone else had said before he was required to chip in with his own information.

[SpaceAnemone]

How many hours til deadline?

Approximately 2 hours.

[Roadrunner7671]

I want to lynch LaLight.

[LaLight]

I want to lynch LaLight.

Why?

[LaLight]

well, believe it or not, I already explained, that I bid on 2-shot vig because I thought that the first 4 places will fight for Alignment com and Hammer Hero that are the most powerful roles in my opinion. I don't what i would claim if I was scum, but this claim is too too convenient to actually do this. I tried to take vig, I failed

[LaLight]

i hate this actually. Always wanted to be vig

[O]

#21 O, VT (went for slot?)

Since seemingly 2-3 people think this is accurate:

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it. That was very softly suggested in this post but obviously you could say that wasn't really a soft claim.

[Dylan32]

I like Space's post at #3989, so vote: LaLight  Have to run out real quick and I'm not sure if I'll be back before the deadline.  I also have no idea where the vote count is, so please double check before adding a vote in case this is L1.

[SpaceAnemone]

#21 O, VT (went for slot?)

Since seemingly 2-3 people think this is accurate:

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it. That was very softly suggested in this post but obviously you could say that wasn't really a soft claim.

Ah, sorry, sure! I copy-pasted from the list I have here in my text-file of game notes, and your eventual slot claim was late enough (#3455, long after the end of the main exercise) that I'd just compiled the rest of what we had.

I wasn't meaning to imply I didn't believe your slot claim, though of course by putting you at the end of the preference order, Awaclus didn't give you much scope to look townier by declaring something that hadn't already been known at the time in the claiming order.

[SpaceAnemone]

I like Space's post at #3989, so vote: LaLight  Have to run out real quick and I'm not sure if I'll be back before the deadline.  I also have no idea where the vote count is, so please double check before adding a vote in case this is L1.

I'd particularly like people to check my reasoning and point out other posts I may have missed, rather than sheeping a good case... It would be awesome not to break our current scum-lynching streak, but it's getting harder to be sure about everyone now.

I do believe your vote is L-1 though, with me, faust, RR and you on the wagon now.

[O]

#21 O, VT (went for slot?)

Since seemingly 2-3 people think this is accurate:

I am inclined to believe that Galzria is telling the truth about his draft. That being said I don't see the benefit of claiming now.

I also bid for slot 11, being so low in the draft, and did not receive it. That was very softly suggested in this post but obviously you could say that wasn't really a soft claim.

Ah, sorry, sure! I copy-pasted from the list I have here in my text-file of game notes, and your eventual slot claim was late enough (#3455, long after the end of the main exercise) that I'd just compiled the rest of what we had.

I wasn't meaning to imply I didn't believe your slot claim, though of course by putting you at the end of the preference order, Awaclus didn't give you much scope to look townier by declaring something that hadn't already been known at the time in the claiming order.

yea I was pretty confident it was just missed, but at the same time i didn't want someone going "why didn't you point it out earlier" to me on some later date.

I didn't claim when I was supposed to because I was confused about what exactly was being claimed and was distracted by the E/Roadrunner debacle. But really you're right that it wasn't very important given where Awaclus put me in the order, I only have the "softclaim" to rely on to have anyone believe it.