Okay, so here's the one thing that makes me hesitant about a sudgy lynch, and still keen on an LL lynch.
#1 faust, 2-shot vig (slot 1)
#2 ?
#3 Jimmmmm, original Mason (slot 6)
#4 mcmc, Hammer Hero (slot 9)
#5 LL, VT (went for slot 1)
#6 e, SK, 1-Shot Bus Driver (claims slot 13; definitely can't have been 6)
#7 sudgy, VT (went for slot 6)
#8 Dylan, VT (went for slot 13)
#9 Eevee, was VT, became Mason. (went for slot 6)
#10 Awaclus, VT
#11 iguana, VT (went for slot 13) but was a scum goon.
#12 ashersky, claimed Role Cop (slot 4?) but was a scum goon.
#13 TWM, Hider (Slot 10)
#14 JR, VT
#15 PPS, restless sheeper (slot 2)
#16 ?
#17 Jake, Tracker (slot 12)
#18 Space, VT (went for slot 12)
#19 RR, VT (went for slot 13)
#20 Galz, Jailkeeper (slot 11)
#21 O, VT (went for slot?)
#22 ?
#23 ?
Sudgy claimed VT, draft position #7 and slot 6 all in post #2867, which is much earlier than most of the rest of the slot claims, because he claimed more information than he was supposed to in the first round of the claiming exercise. That could mean he had insider info that slot 6 was already taken, or it could be a very lucky guess. I feel like slot #6 isn't going to have been a top scum pick, and all three scums who've flipped so far have been goons. Am I missing a reason why this doesn't make things kind of unlikely?
Faust claimed vig at #2678, so that's about 200 posts before sudgy's claim. That's a much more plausible slot to go for as a hiding place for a high-ish-placed scum trying to claim VT, if they'd rather do that than risk a fake PR claim. And it's the slot LL says he went for at post #3190 (having claimed VT and draft position #5 at #2968). LL was very low down in Awaclus's claiming order.
Dylan claimed VT and draft position #8 at post#2918. Jimmmmm was above him in the claiming order, but was awol during the first round of claims, and then claimed Eevee's draft position at #2943. Dylan claimed in #3096 that he bid for slot 13 and didn't get it. At #2958, e claimed VT, and then at #2991, he claimed draft order #19 and slot 13.
So this angle of analysis makes it look to me like LL is the right lynch target for today: he's high in the draft order (so we might expect him to be more likely than other potential scums to be a non-goon), he had a totally safe slot to claim, because faust had claimed it 500 posts earlier, and he was very low down in the claiming order, so he'd pretty much seen everything everyone else had said before he was required to chip in with his own information.