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[Roadrunner7671]

Your unwillingness to even try is telling.

I've been misread so many times and I usually am I okay with it because the people who misread me won't claim to be good at reading me, but here that won't be the case.

There is no logical reason, short of us being partners, that 2.7 could know my bidding slot and what I bid for. However, it is a fact that we are not partners.
Therefore the reason must not be logical.

[Jimmmmm]

Surely the leading theory currently is "scum ploy that they thought we'd think they would never do as scum".

[Roadrunner7671]

Surely the leading theory currently is "scum ploy that they thought we'd think they would never do as scum".

This is the problem. That theory makes sense, but I know it's not true. But you guys can't know it's not true. Boy this is frustrating.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Your unwillingness to even try is telling.

I've been misread so many times and I usually am I okay with it because the people who misread me won't claim to be good at reading me, but here that won't be the case.

There is no logical reason, short of us being partners, that 2.7 could know my bidding slot and what I bid for. However, it is a fact that we are not partners.
Therefore the reason must not be logical.

That isn't how logic works.

[Roadrunner7671]

Your unwillingness to even try is telling.

I've been misread so many times and I usually am I okay with it because the people who misread me won't claim to be good at reading me, but here that won't be the case.

There is no logical reason, short of us being partners, that 2.7 could know my bidding slot and what I bid for. However, it is a fact that we are not partners.
Therefore the reason must not be logical.

That isn't how logic works.

There is no logical solution besides 2.7 and I being partners.

2.7 and I aren't partners.

Therefore, there is no logical solution.

I think that's exactly how logic works.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Your unwillingness to even try is telling.

I've been misread so many times and I usually am I okay with it because the people who misread me won't claim to be good at reading me, but here that won't be the case.

There is no logical reason, short of us being partners, that 2.7 could know my bidding slot and what I bid for. However, it is a fact that we are not partners.
Therefore the reason must not be logical.

That isn't how logic works.

There is no logical solution besides 2.7 and I being partners.

2.7 and I aren't partners.

Therefore, there is no logical solution.

I think that's exactly how logic works.

No. If what you say is true, then there is a logical solution. You just haven't found it yet. Find it, and then I will listen to you. If you can't find it, then SOL. If you won't even try to find it, then I have zero sympathy.

[Roadrunner7671]

Your unwillingness to even try is telling.

I've been misread so many times and I usually am I okay with it because the people who misread me won't claim to be good at reading me, but here that won't be the case.

There is no logical reason, short of us being partners, that 2.7 could know my bidding slot and what I bid for. However, it is a fact that we are not partners.
Therefore the reason must not be logical.

That isn't how logic works.

There is no logical solution besides 2.7 and I being partners.

2.7 and I aren't partners.

Therefore, there is no logical solution.

I think that's exactly how logic works.

No. If what you say is true, then there is a logical solution. You just haven't found it yet. Find it, and then I will listen to you. If you can't find it, then SOL. If you won't even try to find it, then I have zero sympathy.

There's a solution, it just isn't logical. My leading theory is that 2.7 took an awesomesauce guess.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

There's a solution, it just isn't logical. My leading theory is that 2.7 took an awesomesauce guess.

Not good enough. Why did he feel compelled to make an awesomesauce guess? Why couldn't he have just stuck with something closer to the truth? Do you really think that his awesomesauce guess was actually a guess. Someone can do the odds of getting both #s right. But I am guessing they are in the extremely low probability range.

[Roadrunner7671]

There's a solution, it just isn't logical. My leading theory is that 2.7 took an awesomesauce guess.

Not good enough. Why did he feel compelled to make an awesomesauce guess? Why couldn't he have just stuck with something closer to the truth? Do you really think that his awesomesauce guess was actually a guess. Someone can do the odds of getting both #s right. But I am guessing they are in the extremely low probability range.

Can you assume I'm town who was slot 19 and bid on slot #13 for just a second. Put yourself in my shoes.

What type of 'logical solution' could you come up with?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

There's a solution, it just isn't logical. My leading theory is that 2.7 took an awesomesauce guess.

Not good enough. Why did he feel compelled to make an awesomesauce guess? Why couldn't he have just stuck with something closer to the truth? Do you really think that his awesomesauce guess was actually a guess. Someone can do the odds of getting both #s right. But I am guessing they are in the extremely low probability range.

Can you assume I'm town who was slot 19 and bid on slot #13 for just a second. Put yourself in my shoes.

What type of 'logical solution' could you come up with?

Not my job. Why would I hand you a possible solution when you could be scum?

I am willing to consider that you might be town, and have. Odds point toward you being scum. If you want to be resigned and accept that, be my guest. But don't give me the "woe is me" act if you aren't willing to do the work yourself.

That is what started this whole conversation, you asking, "do you really think I would X" and the answer is yes compared to the other possibility of 2.7 guessing your numbers.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm not gonna resign, but I am going to resign to you. You're clearly of the mindset that each towny is a little island and we're not allowed to pool thoughts or work together at all, because of the risk that it could be a scum island instead.

[Galzria]

There's a solution, it just isn't logical. My leading theory is that 2.7 took an awesomesauce guess.

Not good enough. Why did he feel compelled to make an awesomesauce guess? Why couldn't he have just stuck with something closer to the truth? Do you really think that his awesomesauce guess was actually a guess. Someone can do the odds of getting both #s right. But I am guessing they are in the extremely low probability range.

Can you assume I'm town who was slot 19 and bid on slot #13 for just a second. Put yourself in my shoes.

What type of 'logical solution' could you come up with?

I think you're slot 19. I think you bid 13. I also think you're scum.

Thing is, there's 4 options:

e town, RR town
e scum, RR town
e town, RR scum
e scum, RR scum

You want us to believe one of the first two are true. We can all put a story to number four. Why should we believe you?

[Roadrunner7671]

Why should we believe you?

I mean, it's the truth, so that's fun. I've also been as towny as I could be the entire game, and I haven't interacted scummily with 2.7 or Calamitas. If you were to read me at face value, I'd be towny. But 2.7 made sure the crew went down with the ship.

[Roadrunner7671]

Wait. How possible is it that scum 2.7 got slot 13 but was a high bidding guy, like #4, and Calamitas was high as well so he had to guess and hope for the best?

In the scum QT during N0:
Calamitas: Cool! I'm spot 4!
2.7: Awesome dude! I'm spot 5!
Calamitas: Hey, I like numbers and stuff. Since we're both low numbered slot, I'm gonna risk it for the biscuit and take a shot at that sweet, sweet, 2 shot Viggy.
2.7: I like it. Bold and well thought out. I'll go for a safer, more versatile slot like...oh, let's say slot 13. There's a lot of information in the ol' slot 13!
Calamitas: Sounds like a lit plan my dude!

Personally, I don't believe that happened, but it's probably what TWM wants to hear.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Sounds good. But why did he claim #19? When he had no way of knowing if someone alive still had a chance of having it and counter claiming him.

[Roadrunner7671]

Sounds good. But why did he claim #19? When he had no way of knowing if someone alive still had a chance of having it and counter claiming him.

Calculated risk. And he knew that if he died, you guys would lynch the real #19 for being a partner.

Remember what 2.7 said? "I like it. Bold and well thought out." This plan would be both bold and well thought out.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Sounds good. But why did he claim #19? When he had no way of knowing if someone alive still had a chance of having it and counter claiming him.

Calculated risk. And he knew that if he died, you guys would lynch the real #19 for being a partner.

Remember what 2.7 said? "I like it. Bold and well thought out." This plan would be both bold and well thought out.

Ok. So I'll help a bit here.

When you claimed, how many other slots had already been established? How calculated of a risk was it? Let's go find out.

[Roadrunner7671]

Sounds good. But why did he claim #19? When he had no way of knowing if someone alive still had a chance of having it and counter claiming him.

Calculated risk. And he knew that if he died, you guys would lynch the real #19 for being a partner.

Remember what 2.7 said? "I like it. Bold and well thought out." This plan would be both bold and well thought out.

Ok. So I'll help a bit here.

When you claimed, how many other slots had already been established? How calculated of a risk was it? Let's go find out.

Thanks for coming onto my island 

[The_Wine_Merchant]

2.7 claimed at post 2991.

Before that we had the following information (thanks to faust compiling just a few posts above).

faust - 1, 2-shot Vig (Slot 1)

LaLight - 5, VT

sudgy - 7, VT
Dylan32 - 8, VT
Jimmmmm - 9, non-VT
Awaclus - 10, VT
iguanaiguana - 11, VT
ashersky - 12, non-VT

JReggie - 14, VT

JaketheBaseballGod22 - 17, non-VT
SpaceAnemone - 18, VT

Galzria - 20, Jailkeeper (Slot 11)
O - 21, VT

2.71828..... - ?, VT
pingpongsam - ?, Restless Sheeper
RoadRunner - ?, VT
The_Wine_Merchant - ?, Hider (Slot 10)
mcmcsalot - ?, Hammer Hero (Slot 9)

Dead and unclaimed:

AndrewisFTTW - ?, VT
gkrieg - ?, VT
Calamitas - ?, Mafia Goon
Eevee - ?, Masonic Lover or VT
Cuzz - ?, VT


There were 5 players that had not yet claimed their draft position or what they went for. 2.7, PPS, RR, TWM, mcmcsalot.

3 of those are claimed PRs. So they probably aren't slot 19. That only leaves you. So there is one player that could also be slot 19. Looking at the list, the bottom of the list has 17, 18, 20 and 21 already taken. So that leaves 19 and 22 as the ones that are left.

2.7 would have to think that you are likely either #19 or #22. It is unlikely (as we go further down the list), but still possible that you could be one of the tops, #6, #11, #13 or #15.

So realistically he could have picked probably 15, 19 or 22 without running into much trouble about why he didn't get a slot that he said he picked. He happened to pick 19. That is relatively reasonable.

So, the question then becomes, does this become a calculated risk? And why does he have to make it in the first place

[Galzria]

Why should we believe you?

I mean, it's the truth, so that's fun. I've also been as towny as I could be the entire game, and I haven't interacted scummily with 2.7 or Calamitas. If you were to read me at face value, I'd be towny. But 2.7 made sure the crew went down with the ship.

"It's the truth", or "Because I'm town!" don't really mean much here. In LyLo, this gambit makes sense. But let's assume we lynch you here, and you flip town. Now we're almost certainly lynching e tomorrow. So what has he gained? A lynched townie? Do you believe that to be worth the sacrifice at this point in the game? A 1:1 trade?

[Galzria]

Does anyone have any plausible theories regarding the e/RR thing?

I do

Who did you shoot at last night?

[2.71828.....]

work and dinner and stuff.  I will get back to this later.

[Roadrunner7671]

Why should we believe you?

I mean, it's the truth, so that's fun. I've also been as towny as I could be the entire game, and I haven't interacted scummily with 2.7 or Calamitas. If you were to read me at face value, I'd be towny. But 2.7 made sure the crew went down with the ship.

"It's the truth", or "Because I'm town!" don't really mean much here. In LyLo, this gambit makes sense. But let's assume we lynch you here, and you flip town. Now we're almost certainly lynching e tomorrow. So what has he gained? A lynched townie? Do you believe that to be worth the sacrifice at this point in the game? A 1:1 trade?

More stuff has happened, it's not just the truth anymore. I mean it is, but you know.

[Galzria]

work and dinner and stuff.  I will get back to this later.

So.....

[2.71828.....]

work and dinner and stuff.  I will get back to this later.

So.....

I ended up not getting back to it last night.

I don't actually know why RR counterclaimed me. My only thought is that he was a lower position that got a PR, didn't actually want to claim what he really got, ended up selecting a position that was further up hopefully from someone that was dead. I mean, if would have been the perfect fake claim... if I didn't actually have the slot that he picked.