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[Jimmmmm]

Obviously this means we have to manage hammers carefully. IE never put anyone on L-1 (or even maybe L-2) unless mcmc is actively around and ready to hammer.

[sudgy]

Also, if I was scum, I think I would have stuck to tunneling you more.  I've done it before so I could just point that out as my defense if it got me in trouble.

Ok. Let's look actually at that.

Post 508 is when you first vote for me. Continue on 574 and 622. You change your vote to J Reggie on post 952 (actual vote a few later to make sure about vote count), while still stating that you find me scummy.  You are putting pressure back on me on post 1047 and go back to me at 1055. You go back to J Reggie on post 1186, while still having a post be more about me than J Reggie and further talk about me during twilight in post 1228.

You start out Day 2 with a Calam read and vote on me post 1584 further that on post 1712.

So in totality, you didn't have any other read on ANYONE except me and J Reggie and the two times you votes for J Reggie you actually talked about me more.

That is the definition of tunneling. Your other posts that aren't about me are: 624 (meta game analysis, neutral), 961 (talking about how to find posts, neutral), 1020 (talking about Restless Sheeper, neutral), 1023 (talking about hammer hero, neutral), 1361 (hammer hero, neutral).

Yeah. You tunneled me the whole game. I can't see you tunneling me anymore than you did.
psuedovote: sudgy

I was saying that I would have continued to tunnel you.  Also, why would me saying something stupid like you thought I had said make you vote for me?

[The_Wine_Merchant]

I was saying that I would have continued to tunnel you.  Also, why would me saying something stupid like you thought I had said make you vote for me?

Continued tunneling me after I claimed hider? Are you for real. The second sentence I don't think grammars.

[sudgy]

I was saying that I would have continued to tunnel you.  Also, why would me saying something stupid like you thought I had said make you vote for me?

Continued tunneling me after I claimed hider? Are you for real. The second sentence I don't think grammars.

No, sorry, I realized there's a bit of a misunderstanding.  Here's what happened on my end:

1. I've been tunneling you for most of the game.  I admit that.  I didn't really have time for anything else.
2. Last night and this morning, I started reconsidering.  This morning I decided I would consider rereading and doing different things.
3. I saw your claim, and so I didn't need to do all the work of reconsidering.

Now, I'm saying that my scum narrative would have never included 2.  I realize that nothing I posted can confirm this, so you'll just have to trust me, but that's what I was saying.  2 happened before your claim.

[Dylan32]

Ok. Finally my long awaited reads. First up, Sudgy.

I know faust kind of did this already, but I feel like there's a bit of info to be gleaned from Calamitas' posts.  These are the only two posts that he mentions other players:

This game is really huge.

In regard to the game, I don't like the extent to which TWM is talking about vigs here.

Can someone voting for JReggie present the case in a nytshell?

I don't like that first one.  Of all the things people were talking about (mainly a lot of setup speculation), Calamitas mentions TWM's vig talk, which he only mentioned twice, and the last mention was several pages before.  It's just an awkward thing to mention.  I've already had a scumread on TWM anyway, so maybe there's confirmation bias, but I feel like this is the only thing that Calamitas said that could lead to anything.  There's also this interaction:

Guys, I cannot follow really. Can someone give me a short version with the reasoning for all claims with all relevant evidence?
(Please tag it with @Cala). This game is just crazy.

@Cala.

Very few if any of the votes have any substantial reasons at all. This is the hardest game I have had getting reads that are much good at all and I am fully caught up and aware. This isn't going to change until we get some flips. But apparently we want 4 more days of it.

Calamitas makes a plea for people to talk to him, and TWM is the only one who responds.  Also, TWM is basically just saying "It's okay, just keep lurking."

Basically, Calamitas and TWM seemed to notice each other more than others did.  I know it's not terribly useful info, but I feel like it's something.  I still find TWM to be scummy, so Vote: The_Wine_Merchant for now.

Now that we know Calam was scum and TWM appears to be strongly town. Sudgy seems to mostly not like Calamitas's posts here, but ends with a vote on TWM instead.

I could be down with a Sudgy vote. I'm still looking over his Reggie stuff, but these two quotes to me seem contradictory:

It's usually way worse to scum for a scum player to die than to town for a town player to die.  So, scum will usually have a greater will to live than town. Then, on top of it all, if you did nothing wrong and everybody hates you, of course you get frustrated.  Sure, town will get frustrated too, but not nearly as much as scum does.

Anyway, I think that any setup speculation is useless D1.  We don't have any information and can't really figure out anything because of that.  The only thing we get is possibly outed PRs.

I still like my J Reggie vote.  However, I do like the idea of people self-hammering (when they are definitely getting lynched anyway) in anticipation of a hammer hero.  Not just here, but all the time until we confirm there is no hammer hero alive.

The second is, obviously, after Reggie had stated his plan. But Sudgy was still voting him. Which means Sudgy... thought he was scum? Scum that was willing to self-hammer? That goes against what he said above. Granted there is WIFOM in there, but I don't think that's what Sudgy was suggesting was going on.

I think everybody misinterpreted the self-hammer plan.  It wasn't to self-hammer when possible, it was to self-hammer when they were already guaranteed to be lynched.  The ONLY difference between a normal hammer and his plan was that statistics would be different.  I think Reggie's plan was an excellent one that 100% guarantees that scum could never use a hammer hero.

I have to go now again, I'm planning on working on this game a bit more over the next couple of days.

Sudgy is afraid of a hammer hero more than most people seemed to be, which could very well be indicative of scum that bid on that slot and lost, therefore assuming town had the hammer hero and trying to prevent it from hammering.

Between these two things, I feel pretty strongly that Vote: Sudgy is the correct course of action.

[sudgy]

Now that we know Calam was scum and TWM appears to be strongly town. Sudgy seems to mostly not like Calamitas's posts here, but ends with a vote on TWM instead.

...this was today.  After Calamitas flipped scum.

Sudgy is afraid of a hammer hero more than most people seemed to be, which could very well be indicative of scum that bid on that slot and lost, therefore assuming town had the hammer hero and trying to prevent it from hammering.

While this is a legitimate scum narrative, it's not true.  I just felt like people were misinterpretting Reggie's plan.  I didn't realize how good hammer hero could be for town (I actually missed the immunity part), and so I thought it was a fantastic way to cripple scum.  Any way to cripple scum is great in my book.

[Dylan32]

Next: Eevee

Vote: sudgy

As I said earlier, I just pushed the "looks like scum caught for the wrong reasons" argument as scum myself, good enough for me.

^ If I'm correct and sudgy is scum, this looks right.

I thought he was a superior option to TWM/mcmc.

^ At this point it looks like anyone would have been a better option that those two, so correct there.

Isn't Reggie being too erratic for scum?

Vote: awaclus

^ Correct on Reggie, seems likely to be wrong on Awaclus.

Just assuming Reggie is going to flip scum seems like a reach.

Like, if that happens, mcmc is totally justified in what he did, of course. Still more likely than not he is town, though, must be? Feels crazy you are doing analysis expecting a scum flip.

This was in twilight. Seems more sure than most that JR was flipping town.

I'm pretty sure I never voted for mcmc or gkrieg. I was trying to start awaclus or andrew wagons, but didn't get much support, and i joined the reggie train for a bit and then abandoned it after the claim.

*or tmw

I would assume at least one scum would to be off town wagons to look like their reads are good. With a team of 5 people, you would probably want to divide up so that some people are pushing early mislynches while others are setting up future lynches while getting towncred early for being right.

One thing that's bugging me about mcmc is that his reaction to hammering town is not "oh man, my read was wrong, sorry town!", it's "oh, the people who got off this town wagon are scummy". That does not seem like a town mindset to me, there is no doubting himself. The situation IS confusing, I know I'm not very confident I could pick even one scum, let alone four person scum teams. And mcmc is just doubling down on his reads, not pausing at all after hammering a town player last night. I could see this as a distraction for his own hammer, basically the scum narrative of "town wouldn't be this confident in their reads after just being wrong -> it's scum going aggressive.

Throws suspicioun at mcmc, then:

Just checking in, no new reads apart from the obvious ones. Mcmc's plan/claim seem fantastic for us.

Mcmc played the virgin role very similar to this, I had a hunch he he might be some sort of an unusual pr.

He acts like he thought mcmc was a PR the whole time. This last point isn't much, but it is something.

I lean scum on Eevee playing the scum who was in the right places all the time until it's too late for town role.

PPE 1

[Dylan32]

Now that we know Calam was scum and TWM appears to be strongly town. Sudgy seems to mostly not like Calamitas's posts here, but ends with a vote on TWM instead.

...this was today.  After Calamitas flipped scum.

Sudgy is afraid of a hammer hero more than most people seemed to be, which could very well be indicative of scum that bid on that slot and lost, therefore assuming town had the hammer hero and trying to prevent it from hammering.

While this is a legitimate scum narrative, it's not true.  I just felt like people were misinterpretting Reggie's plan.  I didn't realize how good hammer hero could be for town (I actually missed the immunity part), and so I thought it was a fantastic way to cripple scum.  Any way to cripple scum is great in my book.

Oh, I guess I missed that that was D2. On my computer, that post, #1584, shows up with the header saying "D1" while the post above and below says D2.

[sudgy]

Now that we know Calam was scum and TWM appears to be strongly town. Sudgy seems to mostly not like Calamitas's posts here, but ends with a vote on TWM instead.

...this was today.  After Calamitas flipped scum.

Sudgy is afraid of a hammer hero more than most people seemed to be, which could very well be indicative of scum that bid on that slot and lost, therefore assuming town had the hammer hero and trying to prevent it from hammering.

While this is a legitimate scum narrative, it's not true.  I just felt like people were misinterpretting Reggie's plan.  I didn't realize how good hammer hero could be for town (I actually missed the immunity part), and so I thought it was a fantastic way to cripple scum.  Any way to cripple scum is great in my book.

Oh, I guess I missed that that was D2. On my computer, that post, #1584, shows up with the header saying "D1" while the post above and below says D2.

When you quote, the header says whatever the quote did.  See, this post is still saying D1.

[Dylan32]

Also, I don't think I've ever seen town admit that a scum narrative is legitimate. If you are town, there isn't really a legit scum narrative for your play. Add Sudgy's reply post to one that I think is scummy.

I realize I didn't list nearly as many of his posts as I did Eevee's, but other people have talked more about Sudgy, so I was just adding stuff that I didn't remember people pointing out.

PPE 1

Oh, didn't know it did that. Either way, that's why I didn't realize your post was actually D2, so I do retract that point.

[sudgy]

Also, I don't think I've ever seen town admit that a scum narrative is legitimate. If you are town, there isn't really a legit scum narrative for your play. Add Sudgy's reply post to one that I think is scummy.

...so you're saying that town never ever does things that scum would do?  That's completely false.  There's tons of stuff that people do that fit a scum or town narrative.  I'm just saying that I can't refute the logic in that point.

[Dylan32]

Also, I don't think I've ever seen town admit that a scum narrative is legitimate. If you are town, there isn't really a legit scum narrative for your play. Add Sudgy's reply post to one that I think is scummy.

...so you're saying that town never ever does things that scum would do?  That's completely false.  There's tons of stuff that people do that fit a scum or town narrative.  I'm just saying that I can't refute the logic in that point.

I should have been more precise with my language.  I probably should have said something closer to "If you are town, it's easier to see the town perspective and narrative for your actions than the scum one because you weren't operating in a scum mindset."  My main point in the first sentence was that you admitted the scum narrative was there.  That's more the scummy part than the actions. Of course town can do things that look scummy, but they usually don't recognize their actions as scummy.

[sudgy]

Also, I don't think I've ever seen town admit that a scum narrative is legitimate. If you are town, there isn't really a legit scum narrative for your play. Add Sudgy's reply post to one that I think is scummy.

...so you're saying that town never ever does things that scum would do?  That's completely false.  There's tons of stuff that people do that fit a scum or town narrative.  I'm just saying that I can't refute the logic in that point.

I should have been more precise with my language.  I probably should have said something closer to "If you are town, it's easier to see the town perspective and narrative for your actions than the scum one because you weren't operating in a scum mindset."  My main point in the first sentence was that you admitted the scum narrative was there.  That's more the scummy part than the actions. Of course town can do things that look scummy, but they usually don't recognize their actions as scummy.

I didn't recognize it as scummy until you mentioned it.  I admitted it because that was the topic at hand.

Also, FYI, I sometimes do things that I know look scummy as town.  I've always done that.  I just think that the benefits of saying what I would outweighs the extra scumminess.

[2.71828.....]

Okay, this is something I've been wondering for ages:

e, why in the world did you say apples at the beginning of the game?  It makes no sense!

It was a reference to apple interactions with morgrim.

[2.71828.....]

 So yeah. It wasn't supposed to make any sense, being a morgrim reference

[sudgy]

Alright, I finally did my first half of the reread of Galzria (going in player order).  In case you missed, here's what I'm going to try: reread someone once, assuming they are town, and then reread them again, assuming they are scum.  Anyway.

I can't find any holes in Galzria's town play.  Almost everything fits perfectly together.  If he's scum, he's doing a really good job.  There are two interesting things to point out:

1. Galzria has a tendency to hone in on things that aren't too big of a deal.  For example, he spends ages talking about Reggie saying he was basing his reads off of something superficial, when it was clear to at least me and a few others that Reggie had already said it.  Later he focuses on LaLight not focusing on the people who switched wagons when LaLight had said they could be scum.  Not that alignment indicative, but it is an interesting thing to note.

2. Galz, did you reread Cuzz twice on accident?  (here and here)

Alright, now to do a scum reread.  Let's see how it pans out.

[LaLight]

pps, you should reconsider sheeping because you will be the person hammering, not mcmc. Those two roles antisynergize

[ashersky]

Or protect Awaclus

I mean, I guess?  But it doesn't really matter.

The only way to lose is to mislynch every day and have two town kills every night until we have 2 v 3 with only mafia left, basically.  That's 3 to lynch and a 3-man mafia team still alive to control the game.

Again, as long as mcmc and TWM are telling the truth and mcmc hammers the game, it is almost impossible for us to lose.  A math person can run the probability of having no scum lynches or NKs until N4/5; I'm sure it is very low. 

There are no PRs, for any faction, that can modify that outcome.  Hence, the setup has won the game for us.  If I were the SK, I'd waive the white flag.  For mafia, it's harder since it's a team.

Either way, count me in the "disappointed" camp.  What do others think?

??

2 Mafia TWM and MCMC = Mafia win, 1 Mafia TWM and MC 1 Sk/Werewolf = standoff where Mafia kingmakes between town and SK/werewolf... or just a SK win depending on how Robz interprets "stalemate"


I don't see how 3 mafia are necessary to win.

You are correct that the situations you propose are also town losses.  The 3 mafia scenario is the quickest way to lose -- a "worst case" for town.

The first situation you describe is just the 3 mafia one with one less mafia.  The second requires one of the two components of the plan to die, so that would mean a townie screwed up.

Unless we lets a quickhammer happen, we will win.

[faust]

Just to reiterate an alignment cop in twm would confirm that he is town thus also confirming he is hider and I am town hammer hero.
A rolecop on twm would at least confirm twm and I are hider/hammer hero.

Both these actions would fail if TWM hides.

[faust]

I could have guessed that someone pointed that out already.

I could lynch sudgy, I mean, I already wanted to D1. But it does seem like a convenient wagon for scum to have right now.

[faust]

pps, you should reconsider sheeping because you will be the person hammering, not mcmc. Those two roles antisynergize

Good point. Why not sheep Awaclus?

[faust]

I guess TWM is better, but we haven't really confirmed him yet.

[LaLight]

I guess TWM is better, but we haven't really confirmed him yet.

But how is Awaclus better then?

[faust]

I guess TWM is better, but we haven't really confirmed him yet.

But how is Awaclus better then?

Awaclus is basically confirmed town. There is no way he's scum together with TWM. They could be on different scum teams, but that's all.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

@RR/Jake - you two haven't interacted with each other. Unusual, yes?

It's hard to interact with Jake if he barely meets the post minimum.

lol I'm just trying to not get into arguments that make everyone wanna lynch me.