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[mcmcsalot]

Faust just to be clear has your town read on me from earlier in the day dissipated? Or do you think my play is terribly confusing and hard to understand and that my reads are potentially wrong?

If you're town your reads should potentially be wrong.

Yes and they are potentially wrong, heck it's still early in the day. Faust answered the question though so my post still did what I needed it to do.

[Galzria]

I'm going to break this down into many different posts, one each for my thoughts on each person in/on/around the Reggie Wagon. If anything stands out that relates to Gkrieg or Cala I'll include it as well - but for the sake of "brevity" (hahaha. If this is what I call brevity, please someone save me from posting anything more detailed) I won't specifically be looking at that here.

Votes Reggie: Jake, faust, Galz, e, Dylan, Eevee, Sudgy, iguana, gkrieg *** LaLight, Jake(2), Sudgy(2), iguana(2), Space, TWM, Mcmc

I separated the wagon based on my own bias - it had peaked at 8 votes with gkrieg before falling back down to 5 prior to LaLight jumping back on  - I see it as two separate wagons. Of note, those who left the wagon when it was at 8 were:

Eevee, Sudgy, TWM & Me.

Starting from the top:

First Person, Jake:

His first vote on Reggie came as his 7th post, and contained nothing but the vote. It was in response to Reggie suggesting we claim flavor names, which as a VT he didn't have (and thus now, post flip, is obvious he was joking). Jake never really explained the vote, but he did agree with O's assessment that "... or I just learned something very interesting" - this reaction suggests that O and Jake are more likely than not to be VT as well.

Much of the day goes by following that and Jake doesn't mention Reggie again until after Reggie has claimed to have a plan. He states that he doesn't want to lynch Reggie based on the cases presented, but would vote him to get the plan out. After that his only other post on the matter is right before mcmc hammers, when he says that he's fine with lynching Jake after the plan reveal.

Jake - given the plan was to self-hammer if at L-1, did you really think that was something scum would be willing to do? Self-voting/hammering is WAY worse for scum than for town, yes? I mean, it wasn't a great plan regardless, but I would be interested to know why you were willing to continue to push the lynch after he posted it.

[Galzria]

Second person: faust

I actually don't want to do faust right now because I have a very strong town read on him for reasons I don't wish to discuss.

faust, feel free to answer this or ignore it, but it'll confirm my belief and we can discuss it later if you wish:

Was there a reason the results from N1 might have surprised you?

[Galzria]

Third Person, Galz:

Obv!Town.

To answer in a little more depth to mcmc:

I don't think picking scum teams out is ever very effective, but especially not d2. I DO like the way you're thinking though - more directly, I like the way you're looking for interactions between players and events.

In regards to TWM - I didn't agree with yours or anybody's case on him d1 really. I think that he posted a thought that most people disagree with (namely that town pick #1 would take IC over 2-shot Vig), and then proceeded to draw conclusions from that. The best "case" I saw on him was that those conclusions were scummy because of course town takes 2-shot Vig over IC. I think I made it clear based on the cases on him that I didn't have much interest in voting for him. At that point I was doing rereads by person when I came across what I thought could be a scum statement from Reggie. It wasn't a strong case, but I felt it was better than the cases on TWM.

Obviously some people agreed with me. The wagon on Reggie built, the wagon on TWM fell off. You could argue (are arguing in fact) that it was intentional. I can't really debate this with you. Yes, I intentionally pushed for the case/person I found to be scummier.

When I removed myself from the Reggie wagon it was because it had grown to considerable size - more than I thought my case was worthy of (it was ok for d1, but it was still just a d1 case) - and knowing myself to be town I didn't (don't) believe that it got to L-2 and a softclaim without scum driving the lynch. Hence my desire to focus on those that pushed the wagon up after me. I got sidetracked by LaLight going onto the wagon because his reasoning seemed to want to match mine, but he drew a different conclusion (his group of people he found scummy for leaving the wagon were 4 of the 8 initially on (myself included), but didn't want to look at us instead choosing to vote Reggie - which still doesn't really make sense to me). After that the day ended while I wasn't around - and thus never got around to looking down the Reggie wagon.

You've brought up Eevee as well - but I want to do a separate post on him specifically.

[Galzria]

Fourth person: e

Reading e is like reading O or Cuzz to me this game. I just like what the guy is doing/saying. He doesn't really have any Reggie interaction until he joins me on the wagon in post #876. He's moving from TWM to Reggie for what it's worth. The best I can gather from the move choice is:

1) e likes wagons and thinks the creation of them gives us more to analyze later (cant' say I disagree. )
2) e also found the interaction between gkrieg and Reggie to be strange (Yeah.... I kinda read into nothing apparently)

e - as this seems a little relevant towards mcmc's line of questioning right now, what "results" were you referring to in post #876 in regards to your time on the TWM wagon? What did you think of the wagons (both TWM and Reggie), and those on them?

e's post in #1313 is the first reference to votes following me ("I do find it interesting how quickly Galzria's alternative LaLight wagon room off with 3 sheep following quickly behind him.") - As the only vote I control is my own, I would be interested in other people's thoughts on this topic. I felt it happened with Reggie, and I felt it happened with LaLight.

e stays pretty true to the Reggie wagon throughout, while keeping tabs over on the TWM situation. I feel like e could be scum trying to balance two mislynches based on how the town reacts to the two big wagons - but I would feel stronger about this if I saw a TWM town flip. Right now it's pretty weak. Really there isn't anything that jumps out and screams scum to me, and overall I like his line of questioning/playing.

[Galzria]

Fifth person, Dylan:

My first wagon scum read!

Really, there's not a lot here. Dylan hasn't posted a whole lot. He also went from the TWM wagon to the Reggie wagon. What gives me a scum vibe is the way he switched - he basically disagreed with my notion regarding the phrasing Reggie used earlier in the game, and then proceeded to vote for Reggie anyway in the same post.

J Reggie, where in this quote that you're saying it exists, did you say "I will be basing my reads off of something superficial"?

To make reads easier, from this point until an undisclosed later time, I will automatically be scumreading anyone who votes gkrieg and townreading anyone who votes pps.

Because what you're saying NOW is that the above quote IS "I had previously said I would be basing my reads off of something superficial" - which it's not. At all.

He was saying that the condition he was basing reads on (votes on those two people) was a superficial condition.  Really, that seems pretty straightforward.

That being said, I just reread J Reggie, and there just wasn't a ton there. A few decent posts, but nothing that makes me not ok with Vote: J Reggie

PPE 1

The following then is Dylans last post - and the only other post where he even slightly mentions his vote:

I'm roughly 20 pages behind and am going VLA for the next couple days before I'll be able to catch up unless I am able to take some time to read during my time as a passenger. I'll check back in a few hours for an answer, but considering I don't know anything that is going on for context, should I unvote until I can catch up in a couple days? Thanks, and sorry I won't be here for a while.

I really don't like how Dylan got on the Reggie wagon, and I like even less that, knowing he was behind (but being aware enough to ask if he should unvote), he didn't do anything. How would it have hurt to actually unvote if he was unsure? Especially because he never gave anything that suggested super confidence in the vote placement to begin with.

Vote: Dylan for now. This may change as I continue my trek through the wagon - but it's definitely high up on my scum read right now.

[Galzria]

Taking a small break before moving on to Eevee.

[Cuzz]

I think if I'd been part of a scum faction, the smart thing would have been to keep my inferences quiet.

This is real scummy.

Hmm. I assert that it isn't, because I'm not scum. Why do you think I'd be more inclined to say something like that as scum than as town, especially given the context in which I said it?

I just think generally scum is more cognizant of and vocal about "what they'd do as scum."

I have been accused of doing this both times when I was town (and also when I was mafia). I think it has more to do with whether someone is more introspective or not. I agree that it cane be a sign, but I think in this context it is more likely to be pretty neutral.

^I agree with this and am wary of anyone who puts forth such an argument about something like this. These things aren't 100%.

Yes, you should definitely be wary! These things aren't 100%! If only I had used a word like "generally" I might not have implied otherwise!

[mcmcsalot]

Faust you think ninja and one-shot cop are better roles for town than hammer hero?

Ninja is useless, one-shot cop can at max utility catch scum, at worst hit investigation immune/get blocked and receive no result. Hammer hero can at max utility create two unkillable IC's and at worst kill town. I think hammer hero is the better role here.

[pingpongsam]

Faust you think ninja and one-shot cop are better roles for town than hammer hero?

Ninja is useless, one-shot cop can at max utility catch scum, at worst hit investigation immune/get blocked and receive no result. Hammer hero can at max utility create two unkillable IC's and at worst kill town. I think hammer hero is the better role here.

all that stuff he just said. plus, all decent roles to keep out of scum's hands

[Cuzz]

Faust you think ninja and one-shot cop are better roles for town than hammer hero?

Ninja is useless, one-shot cop can at max utility catch scum, at worst hit investigation immune/get blocked and receive no result. Hammer hero can at max utility create two unkillable IC's and at worst kill town. I think hammer hero is the better role here.

two?

[pingpongsam]

Hammer Hero is still a town utility power, right (especially if town outbid scum for it)? I mean, I thought it was clear he was the HH. I thought the only question was whether or not he was town or scum HH.

He has not claimed as such.

WIFOM works against scum too

Fishing is scummy

Behavior is a strong tell, see point 1

[mcmcsalot]

Wait am I confused or didn't faust say it was unlikely a town player would pick hammer hero over ninja/one-shot cop.

Right. I think the other powers in the slot are better for town. So I would only expect to see a town hammer hero from the random slots.

I am saying I think hammer hero is the best town power of that slot.

Pps/cuzz what do you guys think? Or don't answer that if it's not helpful I'm just confused

[mcmcsalot]

Faust you think ninja and one-shot cop are better roles for town than hammer hero?

Ninja is useless, one-shot cop can at max utility catch scum, at worst hit investigation immune/get blocked and receive no result. Hammer hero can at max utility create two unkillable IC's and at worst kill town. I think hammer hero is the better role here.

two?

Oh now I get what you meant. Yes two I don't know if I want to discuss this more.

[Eevee]

Hammer hero seems like the most fun role of the bunch, novelty and all. I wouldn't be surprised if it got picked by town.

Scum would probably be more likely to bid for that slot, though.

[Dylan32]

Wow. People weren't kidding when they said don't fall behind in this game. 3 pages showed up just while I was reading this afternoon (which feels like the only thing I have done this afternoon.

1st, re: Galz's read of me.

I wasn't disagreeing with what you were trying to do, I was just pointing out that I thought you were misrepresenting his post. That has nothing to do with how I actually read J Reggie. I would point out flawed logic even on my top scumread to make sure that the reasons we are lynching people are actually solid.  So my disagreement with you and my vote are completely unrelated.

 I don't have time to actually go back and get quotes and stuff now, but these are just some thoughts I had while reading the EoD1 and everything from today.

Faust seems like town, but it's a weak read and he is still in the realm of fakeable-town-faust meta.

Andrew does not sound like scum!Andrew from our game as scum partners.  There, I remember him being pretty firm in his reads and trying to drive lynches pretty hard.  I got the impression he was being more non-committal than I remember.

Gkrieg seems like a common early game NK, but at the same time, the last two scum teams I've been on (including several vet players in this game) have left him alive for a while because of the WIFOM that him surviving brings about him surviving because he's scum.  So I think him dying D1 either comes from a scum team of old players who haven't played with him much and much younger players that legitimately are afraid of town!gkrieg than a scum team led by players like Ash, faust, or Andrew.  (Ash is in that list because he was my partner in one of the games where we did that.)

I'm actually not willing to just give mcmc a town pass by him being wrong about the scum QT like some people seem to be.  He's good enough to fake getting something like that wrong.  I'm not saying he did fake that, just that he's good enough to come up with something like that for towncred.  I'm still null on him.

Unfortunately, my reads coming out of that are still weaker than what I would have expected because nothing really stood out, although there was just so much info there I'm probably just on infomation overload.

For now, I will Vote: Space until I have time to completely reread other people.

A couple PPEs

[pingpongsam]

For now, I will Vote: Space until I have time to completely reread other people.

I snipped your text for later sanity of us all but I must say I was really vibing on everything you wrote right up to the point you votes Space with nothing to support it. What the heck was that about?

[faust]

Faust you think ninja and one-shot cop are better roles for town than hammer hero?

Ninja is useless, one-shot cop can at max utility catch scum, at worst hit investigation immune/get blocked and receive no result. Hammer hero can at max utility create two unkillable IC's and at worst kill town. I think hammer hero is the better role here.

I had the slots confused actually.

[Galzria]

Right. Eevee next.

*****Conclusion Here, Read fully if you desire***
I really don't like how Eevee has tied himself to me throughout d1. Between posts #245, and #977, combined with the sheeping onto Reggie and LaLight I do feel like he's setting me up to be a mislynch/Vig target should he ever die (assuming he flips scum). If he's town, I don't really know how to explain his play. - I'm definitely more in the scum!Eevee camp than I am in town!Eevee camp based off what I see below though.
****************************************

A jumping off point for what I thought of Eevee early/mid d1:

What I really want to focus on here are two things though:

1) Eevee/Reggie
2) Eevee/Sheep
3) Eevee/Galz

First and Second, Eevee/Reggie and Eevee/Sheep:
No interaction at all prior to his vote on Reggie in post #902. My case was posted in #854, and this was Eevee's first post since that point. e, Dylan and TWM had all voted to Reggie in between, making Eevee vote #5. Eevee's vote post:

Vote: J Reggie

His very next post also contained nothing about Reggie, but did pertain to me. I'll circle back to it at the end of this post (along with a few other posts of his on this topic). In post #984, he asks "Want to vote andrew with me?", referencing a scum read he had prior to voting Reggie - note he still hasn't mentioned Reggie outside his vote at this point.

After Reggie first mentions a plan, Eevee unvotes. This is in post #1019. We still have yet to see a reason why he was on Reggie to begin with.

Unvote

Even though Reggie just pulled something like this as scum, I'm not so sure he is here.

He followed that up with an immediate vote back to Andrew - the one place he's been consistent about scumreading so far.

The following post (#1108, 200 after his initial vote) is the first time Eevee mentions anything about his Reggie vote - and it's pretty much just to acknowledge that it was nothing more than a sheep vote. Reggie was a pretty active poster though, and Eevee did spend much of the day heavily suggesting we should be going after lurkers - so it's surprising that he like my case on Reggie enough to get on board with it - even more that he liked it enough to get on board without actually saying anything about it.

I'm kind of torn, because reading the setup wizards trying to analyze the draft is very interesting to me, but I'm doubtful if we can find any conclusions that are more beneficial than the accidental revealing stuff for scum would be. Like, I doubt we could find anything super useful for certain, but I could easily see an important PR being outed. Is the juice worth the squeeze?

If you wish to do something helpful, how about answering my question about your Andrew vote?

I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive, Andrew has been less controversial and visible than I'd expect, and hasn't posted anything that made me think "that's towny". I don't really have a any case to post I would expect others to follow, but I think someone like Andrew would be our best bet for hitting scum.

Of the viable wagons, I guess I like Reggie the best.

I must admit, I don't have the patience for trying to create "real" day 1 cases, because they feel like such guesswork. I'd be happy to sheep one if someone created one I fancy (like I initially did with J Reggie).

A little strange, following that Cuzz pushed Eevee on "I don't really have any great master theories, I dislike some of the bigger wagons because lynching a top poster doesn't seem productive" specifically, and asked him the following 3 questions:

"Which wagons do you consider the bigger ones?
Of those, which ones do you dislike?
Who do you consider the top posters among them?"

Eevee responds in post #1115 by mentioning the TWM and mcmc wagon - but not the Reggie wagon. In #1142 I ask him to expand on his reason for joining the Reggie wagon, and his response is simply "I thought he was a superior option to TWM/mcmc." - but it's not like those were the only 3 people that could have votes on them. It feels more like Eevee chose to be on the Reggie wagon for the sake of being on a wagon - which is definitely a little scummy. I'm all for wagons, but part of the reason is that it forces people to post opinions. He didn't do that.

In post #1207 I vote LaLight following a series of back and forths with him, and in Eevee's very next post, he sheeps along on the vote (note where he says faust I assume he means me - faust hadn't said anything about LaLight at that point):

Vote: LaLight

For reasons faust just so concisely outlined.

That vote was post #1219. In post #1269 TWM calls out the quick joiners of the LL wagon (O, PPS, Eevee), and in Eevee's very next post (#1274) he unvotes.

In #1390 Eevee gives his first Reggie read in awhile, shortly before Reggie gets lynched (mcmc hammered in #1400), suggesting he looks too erratic to be scum. It almost feels like "Oh no... don't lynch Reggie... there's no way he's scum..." - as in, it doesn't feel like his heart is in trying to prevent this lynch from happening. Maybe that's just how I'm reading it?

All in all, his interactions with the Reggie wagon are really weak, especially considering they seem to contradict most of his feelings throughout the day regarding where we should be looking to lynch.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lastly, I wanted to touch on two posts that are really weird to me because they feel like he's tying himself to me unnaturally. Like he wants me to like him and find him townie.

First post, his first of the game:

Heyooo! It's so cool to see O and Galzria back, both are true legends of f.ds mafia. Galzria was such a killer in his heyday.

And post #977 (This one moreso, because it answered the question while deflecting and not answering the question. There was no real context to this game):

Galz how do you feel about eevee. Same question to eevee but vise versa.

I missed Galzria! I don't think he looks scummy. I also don't think I would suspect anything if he was scum.

Fun fact: The worst I've ever been duped, it was Ozle's first murder mystery game (maybe my favorite game ever), I was some sort of a semi-cop, and had a QT with Galzria for some reason. I hadn't claimed, and was withholding my results from town, but felt so comfortable with Galzria in our QT, I told him what I had found out and asked for advice.

I didn't make it to the morning and never got to claim. Galzria was scum.

I'm going to put my conclusion at the top since this post is entirely too long, and my thoughts are a little scattered.

[Dylan32]

For now, I will Vote: Space until I have time to completely reread other people.

I snipped your text for later sanity of us all but I must say I was really vibing on everything you wrote right up to the point you votes Space with nothing to support it. What the heck was that about?

Like I said, all of that was just from impressions and stuff I got while reading. Space seemed scummier, so I put my vote there until I have time to read and actually develop good reasons.

[Eevee]

I think there is a distinction between "let's not lynch the most active players" and "let's lynch a lurker". I would have guessed that Reggie would have been on the lower half of post count, which i would guess has a higher than average amount of scum. The reggie vote was prettt much just wagoning someone i thought wasn't towny, which is also why i unvoted later - it was a flimsy vote and i didn't want to see that lynch go through in the end.

The buddying is just me legitimately thinking it's so cool to play with you after all this time.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Need to put things down that I am thinking. I can't seem to access my QT at the moment, so I am going to put this here even though they aren't fully fleshed out yet. So sorry for lack of explanations behind them.

I am getting scummy vibes from 2.7 and Eevee. I want to go back and reread both of them and figure out why. faust feels very town. Still think O is town.

I'm feeling the scums from 2.7 too.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say I think I'm somewhat kinda maybe a little decent at reading TWM and I think maybe he might possibly sorta be town? Maybe?

I think you read me well as well. Similar with 2.7 which is partially why I am suspect of him here, but that might be unfair on both counts.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

OK.

J Reggie starts the voting on me.
Ash joins - no explanation
mcmc joins - no explanation
Dylan joins - no explanation
sudgy joins. He is the first to provide something of an explanation, FYI. faust has already shown how the reasoning looks fabricated.
2.7 joins - fun place to join
mcmc comes back on
sudgy comes back on voting for me for unvoting J Reggie, which was clearly me being factitious about Jimmmm's request to not end the day early.

And then that is it for Day 1. sudgy votes me again for supposed Calamatis interactions. Again, he didn't actually reread Calam or at least didn't post those, he just found ones that pertained to me and only analyzed those.

vote: sudgy I think both of his votes on me today are reflective of scum falling for me as bait lynch with fabricated or forced reasons.

And I could also look at Dylan/2.7. Ash is an enigma and I see mcmc as town.

Forgot Dylan was in this game. Jeez.

I'm not sure what you're getting at exactly about sudgy. Bait lynch? Can you explain further please?

Think I meant to say lynch bait. Basically I have realized that when I am town I a bit of a magnet for scum to pretend to suspect me. My two town games and this one I have had early "suspicion" and votes from players that were later revealed to be scum. Like M98. All of the scum were on my wagon and pushing it. NM9 I think was similar and is probably here as well. Something about how I play as town makes scum think I would be a good lynch. Probably because I am a bit silly and off and post what I think the consequences be damned sort of attitude.

[iguanaiguana]

I really don't like what Galzria is doing. D1, he posts a huge case on J Reggie, then pivots as soon as it gets any traction. Now today he's calling his case weak:

When I removed myself from the Reggie wagon it was because it had grown to considerable size - more than I thought my case was worthy of (it was ok for d1, but it was still just a d1 case) - and knowing myself to be town I didn't (don't) believe that it got to L-2 and a softclaim without scum driving the lynch. Hence my desire to focus on those that pushed the wagon up after me.

To me, this looks like reinventing his own narrative. At the time, the case was stated very strongly. Now that the case is on a known VT, he wants to downplay and it call it "okay for D1." It's like he wants everyone else who was on the wagon to take the blame for what happened aside from him. It also concerns me how easily people add their votes to his when he casts a vote, and how few people are willing to vote for him. People join right away when he votes for J Reggie, and right away when he votes for LaLight, and now today several people are saying he looks scummy from yesterday but no one is casting a vote.

McMc is calling scum teams because of this stuff. I think that's a little ridiculous, but in general I still think it's scum indicative when no one is willing to vote for a player and I think it can be scum indicative when lots of people are willing to sheep a player too.

Also, in general, I don't like how much he posts conclusions and compared to how little he asks questions. I mean, it's easy to solve something when you already know the answers.

Vote: Galzria

[iguanaiguana]

Also, hello - I've been accused of lurking. Actually, yesterday was too beautiful to play mafia.