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[mcmcsalot]

So I look at that vote count and think okay I'm going to move my vote to be more helpful. Robz and eevee are on the person I am most likely to move my vote to, but schaad and witherweaver are the more townie players I want to sheep(there post counts are at the top with me vs. robz and eevee in a more scummy actilurking spot)

So what's the case against eevee? Also if ww and schadd could give opinions on if they would lynch idp or dylan. I'll respond to any quesntons you guys have as well.

[schadd]

would lynch idptg. not interested in dylan yet, he has been very off my radar this game (though this may be a bad thing)

[Witherweaver]

Eevee I just did not like from yesterday. 

IDP I would do.. my scum read on him cooled yesterday, but did not shift to town.

Dylan I don't have any impression on.. I can't actually recall anything he's done.  I would lynch there.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Eevee I just did not like from yesterday. 

IDP I would do.. my scum read on him cooled yesterday, but did not shift to town.

Dylan I don't have any impression on.. I can't actually recall anything he's done.  I would lynch there.

What didn't you like about Eevee? Just the vote?

[Eevee]

I think I'm suspected for actilurking in every single game. I guess my playstyle is full of fluff? The timezone difference makes it so I'm often catching up on what was talked about last night, not sure if that's a factor.

I think Robz has been remarkably unremarkable this game. Don't remember him getting any suspicion himself or being a leading force in suspecting someone else, which is unusual.

Andrew seems more aggressive today than yesterday, which I think is good. Makes him easier to catch if he is scum at least, he is putting down solid opinions all the time. Would be nice to hear what Dylan thinks of the suspicion him (in itself or contrasted to other lower posts), or who he'd want to lynch. Generally I would encourage people to be voting for someone, we are very spread apart at this point, getting everyone's voice heard would help concentrating our efforts.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

mcmc is still scum read #1 for me, but a lynch pool of the three people off wagon makes sense to me too.

I am only a slight scum read. (woah, my iPad just autocorrected too mcmcsalot instead of the other way around) is a number one scum read. But I am getting the vote.

This is what I was talking about.

Vote: andrew

Again, mcmc is my #1 scum read. But if we're only lynching off wagon today, you would be my choice. Not sure what you mean by "this is what I was talking about".

There is no set rule that we have to lynch off wagon. I can understand why that might be an idea to at least look at, but you are taking it as a rule.

There are 10 players alive. 3 that were off wagon and 7 that were on. I personally think it somewhat unlikely that more than one mafia was off wagon (from my perspective that would mean it would have to be Dylan and IDPTG, which certainly could be possible, but I think rather unlikely). So that is a 1/3 (0.33) chance (1/2 of two from my perspective, but I think it makes more sense to look at it from a strictly neutral position when trying to do these numbers) at best as there is still a decent chance the number of scum off wagon is zero.

As for on wagon it is likely either 3/7 (0.42) or 2/7 (0.28) that are mafia. So I don't think a rule to have to lynch off wagon today is worth ignoring "strong scum reads" as I think that is potentially what mafia is trying to do. Push a lynch onto an area where there are zero or one mafia and safely ignore the area where there is likely to be a higher number on wagon.

[schadd]

I can understand why that might be an idea to at least look at, but you are taking it as a rule.

yes, i was concerned idptg was doing this as well.

[mcmcsalot]

So sorry schadd and witherweaver, zero of my eevee scum alarms are ringing, his defense is exactly what I would have said.

Twm on the other hand is increasingly unhelpful which I find interesting.

[Witherweaver]

Eevee I just did not like from yesterday. 

IDP I would do.. my scum read on him cooled yesterday, but did not shift to town.

Dylan I don't have any impression on.. I can't actually recall anything he's done.  I would lynch there.

What didn't you like about Eevee? Just the vote?

Yeah, it looked to me like scum explaining their way onto a mislynch. 

[pingpongsam]

Eevee was the primary mover from the mcmc wagon to the Joseph wagon yesterday. I'm not sure what everyone else is considering him for but that is the most solid piece of evidence.

[mcmcsalot]

So the whole on wagon/off wagon thing isn't just that scum doesn't like being on wagon as in most games. In this game we pivoted to looking off wagon because of how Joseph's wagon occurred.

Twm keeps stating it's unlikely that 2 scum are off wagon because to him that would mean idp and dylan have to be scum and that's unlikely. But he gives no reason that's actually unlikely. They have posted almost nothing of substance, idp I think has been scummy with the timing of his jumping into conversations. I think that's very possible and it's wierd twm is so set that it's unlikely without a reason.

Also twm responded more aggressively towards being called a lurker than I expected. 15 posts compared to the average player having 45 posts is pretty low on content. Also many of your posts as people pointed out were apologizing for being gone. Essentially I would like your thought on each and every player. It doesn't have to be a reread, I assume you are caught up and just want your current thoughts.

[pingpongsam]

The thing is Eevee did a few things I just don't think scum!eevee does. I commented on those things at the time. I may have biased my observations around the idea that mcmc was assumed scum, though.

[mcmcsalot]

based purely off of memory and then going back to the list of players, I am leaning toward one of the following: ww, dylan, IDontplay and schadd and maaaaybe ash?

So I guess those are people I should look at more specifically

Also here is a spot where twm suspected idp and Dylan, so again wierd that he's so set that we should lynch on wagon vs off wagon. This feels like more than a townie not wanting to be on the side of the wagon we are targeting.

[AndrewisFTTW]

mcmc is still scum read #1 for me, but a lynch pool of the three people off wagon makes sense to me too.

I am only a slight scum read. (woah, my iPad just autocorrected too mcmcsalot instead of the other way around) is a number one scum read. But I am getting the vote.

This is what I was talking about.

Vote: andrew

Again, mcmc is my #1 scum read. But if we're only lynching off wagon today, you would be my choice. Not sure what you mean by "this is what I was talking about".

There is no set rule that we have to lynch off wagon. I can understand why that might be an idea to at least look at, but you are taking it as a rule.

There are 10 players alive. 3 that were off wagon and 7 that were on. I personally think it somewhat unlikely that more than one mafia was off wagon (from my perspective that would mean it would have to be Dylan and IDPTG, which certainly could be possible, but I think rather unlikely). So that is a 1/3 (0.33) chance (1/2 of two from my perspective, but I think it makes more sense to look at it from a strictly neutral position when trying to do these numbers) at best as there is still a decent chance the number of scum off wagon is zero.

As for on wagon it is likely either 3/7 (0.42) or 2/7 (0.28) that are mafia. So I don't think a rule to have to lynch off wagon today is worth ignoring "strong scum reads" as I think that is potentially what mafia is trying to do. Push a lynch onto an area where there are zero or one mafia and safely ignore the area where there is likely to be a higher number on wagon.

Well I'm certainly not going to argue against lynching my biggest scum read, who happened to be on wagon. I was under the impression that we were all decided we were lynching off wagon today. I can understand why you wouldn't want that, being off wagon and all.

[mcmcsalot]

Eevee was the primary mover from the mcmc wagon to the Joseph wagon yesterday. I'm not sure what everyone else is considering him for but that is the most solid piece of evidence.

Eevee wasn't the primary mover at all. Eevee was never on my wagon, he was on joesph as an Rvs vote, eevee always townread me and then after a vote count he unvoted his Rvs vote, reread Joseph and then put him to l-2 with yes by the best explaination in the world but robz/ww/schadd all jumped quickly on the wagon with no explaination so I can't see how eevee's vote for Joseph is any scummier than the rest of our votes.

[Witherweaver]

Well, I'm not going to insist on Eevee.

Andrew is starting to shift to someone I would lynch.

[pingpongsam]

Eevee was the primary mover from the mcmc wagon to the Joseph wagon yesterday. I'm not sure what everyone else is considering him for but that is the most solid piece of evidence.

Eevee wasn't the primary mover at all. Eevee was never on my wagon, he was on joesph as an Rvs vote, eevee always townread me and then after a vote count he unvoted his Rvs vote, reread Joseph and then put him to l-2 with yes by the best explaination in the world but robz/ww/schadd all jumped quickly on the wagon with no explaination so I can't see how eevee's vote for Joseph is any scummier than the rest of our votes.

Well, if you insist on having an accurate version of events...

[IDontPlayThisGame]

based purely off of memory and then going back to the list of players, I am leaning toward one of the following: ww, dylan, IDontplay and schadd and maaaaybe ash?

So I guess those are people I should look at more specifically

Also here is a spot where twm suspected idp and Dylan, so again wierd that he's so set that we should lynch on wagon vs off wagon. This feels like more than a townie not wanting to be on the side of the wagon we are targeting.

Especially since there hasn't been thaaaat much support for it. I'm still waiting to hear from Dylan.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

mcmc is still scum read #1 for me, but a lynch pool of the three people off wagon makes sense to me too.

I am only a slight scum read. (woah, my iPad just autocorrected too mcmcsalot instead of the other way around) is a number one scum read. But I am getting the vote.

This is what I was talking about.

Vote: andrew

Again, mcmc is my #1 scum read. But if we're only lynching off wagon today, you would be my choice. Not sure what you mean by "this is what I was talking about".

There is no set rule that we have to lynch off wagon. I can understand why that might be an idea to at least look at, but you are taking it as a rule.

There are 10 players alive. 3 that were off wagon and 7 that were on. I personally think it somewhat unlikely that more than one mafia was off wagon (from my perspective that would mean it would have to be Dylan and IDPTG, which certainly could be possible, but I think rather unlikely). So that is a 1/3 (0.33) chance (1/2 of two from my perspective, but I think it makes more sense to look at it from a strictly neutral position when trying to do these numbers) at best as there is still a decent chance the number of scum off wagon is zero.

As for on wagon it is likely either 3/7 (0.42) or 2/7 (0.28) that are mafia. So I don't think a rule to have to lynch off wagon today is worth ignoring "strong scum reads" as I think that is potentially what mafia is trying to do. Push a lynch onto an area where there are zero or one mafia and safely ignore the area where there is likely to be a higher number on wagon.

Well I'm certainly not going to argue against lynching my biggest scum read, who happened to be on wagon. I was under the impression that we were all decided we were lynching off wagon today. I can understand why you wouldn't want that, being off wagon and all.

It isn't that I don't want to lynch off wagon or on wagon. I want to lynch where the best lynch is. It could be one or the other. I don't want to isolate ourselves from thinking elsewhere and that is something I can see mafia trying to do.

If there were a very clear cut, confirmed fact that X mafia was found on or off wagon then it would certainly be worth doing. But right now we are working completely off speculation and possibly from manipulation.

[The_Wine_Merchant]

Also twm responded more aggressively towards being called a lurker than I expected. 15 posts compared to the average player having 45 posts is pretty low on content. Also many of your posts as people pointed out were apologizing for being gone. Essentially I would like your thought on each and every player. It doesn't have to be a reread, I assume you are caught up and just want your current thoughts.

Because I am not a lurker. A lurker is someone who comes on the thread and doesn't post. I consistently post when I am online.

And yes, many of my posts were apologies. I am not going to apologize for apologizing. I had set aside time on Saturday to go into the game. But you know what happened to prevent that right?

Honestly I don't have thoughts on each and every player. I am caught up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that I am at a point where I am reading them a certain way as of yet.

[mcmcsalot]

Twm you just seem to be overly concerned with where we are looking for our lynch target. This is why I would consider you a lurker. Rather than commenting on if you think one of idp/dylan is scum, or making a case on someone on wagon you have just voiced concern over where we are looking.

Perhaps you have a good theory, scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town. That's a thought, then you need to go through and do the work, see who has initiated the off wagon suspicion, who has agreed/disagreed, have the votes of those players and the prior reeds of those players been consistent with what they are currently pushing or not. Then present that info to town so we can analyze see if we think your right and maybe form a wagon on someone

[mcmcsalot]

Maybe I should specify, I don't care if your viewing the thread or not. Lurking is posting but not participating in any of the active discussions which is what you are doing. It's what idp was doing after the lynch yesterday, and it's approaching what robz is doing if when he posts next he doesn't have much substance to his posts.

[pingpongsam]

scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town.

I'm certainly considering this as a possibility and is another strong reason fro my current vote

[IDontPlayThisGame]

What do we have to lose from the UB stepping forward? There's no way scum would counterclaim and my impression from yesterday's Twilight is that Governor isn't the best role so we wouldn't lose too much drawing the NK if scum goes that route.

[IDontPlayThisGame]

scum is trying to coerce town into lynching between a small group of people that contains town.

I'm certainly considering this as a possibility and is another strong reason fro my current vote

I'm starting to think off-wagon isn't the best place to look. I looked at some numbers for random lynches and on-wagon seems more productive.