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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 121853 times)

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Joseph2302

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1100 on: December 19, 2016, 06:18:32 pm »

Also, RR, how did Jake now on D1 that you were Babysitter? It was in no way obvious that you were.
Lucky guess
Seems kind of very lucky.
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Joseph2302

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1101 on: December 19, 2016, 06:20:11 pm »

After looking at the setup, I can only imagine that would be the case if he was a Babysitter (based on the flavor). However, this post makes it pretty clear he knows the difference:

Do you understand, that flavor name and role are two different things?
Yes I have stated that just now the role is what you are for example cop or doctor or Vt or tracker or Watcher or Jailkeeper
A flavor name is the name associated with the role based off the topic for example Vineyard in best Dominion card mafia 
Ok so theirs one PR so RR is eliminated from the lynch pool
What?
No one is going to put babysitter in for this post with out knowing the role well so therefore RR is clearly a Babysitter. He can confirm that with a claim

I think this is an example of someone using terrible reasoning to come up with the right answer. Happens occassionally I guess.

Anyway, considering EoD2 and what Calamitas was saying, I'm leaning towards Joseph lying.  But there are 2 people that are lying, not just one, so maybe Joseph and faust both are and Joseph is trying to bus.
I know it looks bad for me, because Calamitas' top scum read was me.
The fact that no scum have been seen as suspicious yet this game leads me to believe there are experienced scum players playing well e.g. faust.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1102 on: December 19, 2016, 06:28:00 pm »

The fact that no scum have been seen as suspicious yet this game leads me to believe there are experienced scum players playing well e.g. faust.
That's just not enough. Do some work.
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Joseph2302

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1103 on: December 19, 2016, 06:48:02 pm »

The fact that no scum have been seen as suspicious yet this game leads me to believe there are experienced scum players playing well e.g. faust.
That's just not enough. Do some work.
So the onus is on me to do more, rather than everyone else who's done nothing today?
Makes sense.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1104 on: December 19, 2016, 06:48:57 pm »

Also, RR, how did Jake now on D1 that you were Babysitter? It was in no way obvious that you were.
Lucky guess
Seems kind of very lucky.
You're not accusing me of colluding with Jake, are you? I'd hate to make that assumption incorrectly.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1105 on: December 19, 2016, 06:50:07 pm »

Might as well claim my targets.

N1 I targeted Faust, and N2 I targeted Joseph.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1106 on: December 19, 2016, 07:02:00 pm »

Might as well claim my targets.

N1 I targeted Faust, and N2 I targeted Joseph.
You targetted me N2? Doesn't seem like anyone would have NKed me ever.
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Joseph2302

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1107 on: December 19, 2016, 07:03:57 pm »

Also, RR, how did Jake now on D1 that you were Babysitter? It was in no way obvious that you were.
Lucky guess
Seems kind of very lucky.
You're not accusing me of colluding with Jake, are you? I'd hate to make that assumption incorrectly.
I'm suggesting it, it seems kind of odd that he seemed to know stuff there was 0% chance of him knowing for sure as VT.
But whatever, if you say you weren't communicating about it offline, then I'm happy to accept that.
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Dylan32

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1108 on: December 19, 2016, 10:24:14 pm »

I know it looks bad for me, because Calamitas' top scum read was me.
The fact that no scum have been seen as suspicious yet this game leads me to believe there are experienced scum players playing well e.g. faust.

How do you know no scum have been seen as suspicious yet? Pretty much everyone has been under the microscope at some point.  Unless you know for a fact IDPTG is town, then I don't know how you could make that assertion.  Just because scum hasn't been lynched doesn't mean they haven't been under suspicion. 

Let's look at the possible scum teams. As far as I'm concerned, the three options are Joseph/faust, Joseph/IDPTG, or faust/IDPTG.  I haven't seen much that would make me think it's faust/IDPTG, but I guess faust could have used ending the day with his vote on IDPTG to bus him a bit while there was no chance for it to actually cause IDPTG to be lynched.  So that's possible, but I'm not sure it is most likely.

I really don't think Joseph and faust are both on the scum team unless Joseph is doing some serious bussing right now.  That's possible, but I feel like scum being one bad lynch away from winning would discourage bussing this hard right now.  However, they are the two biggest vets left in the game right now, so I guess between them they would each have the skill and experience to pull off this strong of a bus and be able to end it before it went too far.

Last is Joseph/IDPTG.  Joseph is the person I believe is most likely to be scum of the three.  Combining the case on him with IDPTG's ability to apparently escape all attention with a valid reason for staying out  leads me to believe this is probably the most likely of the three.  However, IDPTG is just as suspicious in a case where he is faust's partner, simply because IDPTG doesn't have that many significant interactions that I remember that we can evaluate.

So of those three people, judging on an individual basis, my lynch preference would be Joseph, followed by the other two in about a tie.  However, the probability of each person being assigned to the scum team is the same, and so each of the three teams are statistically equally likely in a vacuum.  When you use my reads of each person's two potential teams to estimate the likelihood of, I think IDPTG would be the safer lynch.  HOWEVER, my gut still says Joseph is scum.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1109 on: December 19, 2016, 10:30:59 pm »

I would probably want to lynch Joseph or Dylan here.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1110 on: December 19, 2016, 10:52:16 pm »

I'm throwing out a Joseph/faust scum team, partly due to PoE.

The PoE part:
I think we can agree that RR is an IC at this point due to the lack of a counterclaim. Even though he told me not to (sort of) I'm still reading Dylan as town. Therefore only Joseph and faust remain.

The other part:
Given that it takes three to lynch, this is LyLo, and there are two scum remaining, if town ever puts someone to L-2 scum can jump in and hammer. RR put a vote on Joseph and nothing happened. So either RR was right or scum didn't get around to hammering.

The first argument implicates both Joseph and faust; the second only implicates Joseph. I don't think either argument is particularly compelling on its own, but together I take them to be strong enough to have confidence in saying that Joseph is scum. Combine this with Calamitas' read and I'm almost ready to vote.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1111 on: December 19, 2016, 11:20:16 pm »

And part of the reason I voted Joseph was because I knew I would be around fpr several hours after casting my vote
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1112 on: December 20, 2016, 02:12:48 am »

The fact that no scum have been seen as suspicious yet this game leads me to believe there are experienced scum players playing well e.g. faust.
That's just not enough. Do some work.
So the onus is on me to do more, rather than everyone else who's done nothing today?
Makes sense.
Yes, the onus to reread is on every single one of us.
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Joseph2302

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1113 on: December 20, 2016, 07:14:40 am »

So so far my name has been suggested as scum by everybody.
And faust has been suggested as scum by quite a few people (me, IDPTG, Dylan).
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1114 on: December 20, 2016, 07:22:30 am »

So so far my name has been suggested as scum by everybody.
And faust has been suggested as scum by quite a few people (me, IDPTG, Dylan).
I don't recall suggesting anything.

I will reread later today or tomorrow. Reserving judgment until then. You should reread too. I think I already said that.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1115 on: December 21, 2016, 08:34:32 am »

Will reread Dylan because he's the person I did not yet reread.

gkrieg honestly scares me because he plays such a good town game that I really want him alive, but I just know the game I decide to not be suspicious of him and fully trust him will be the one that he is scum and it bites me in the butt.  would not lynch today.
First post. This is interesting in that it offers an explanation for gkrieg's kill. But I think many players would kill gkrieg, so meh.

Notably, he does not give any reads on players who are still alive now in that post. That's slightly towny; scum usually feels compelled to have an opinion on their partner.

Defends Jake a fair bit. White knighting? Maybe. Considering that the main lynch alternatives were all townies, not even unlikely. In his last D1 post, he states that he's more not willing to vote for Jake out of sympathy. Town points for that.

On D2, starts out pushing a Calamitas case.

Calamitas/idptg team seems legit.

What about IDPTG makes you think he's the other half of the scum team?
Intruiging. It's not easy asking a question like that about your partner. So that makes Dylan/Idplay less likely.

I don't like his insistence on "I would have voted Jake if given the time", which reads a bit like "I'm caught for the wrong reasons!" Scum points are due here.

This post is lenghty and I won't quote, but it reads towny to me.

Also IDPTG, I'm glad someone has been following my logic so far, but as a matter of improving your play, just because someone is saying what you are thinking doesn't always mean they are town.  It can help you clarify your reads sometimes, but sometimes scum will overly agree with you or take sensible stances that you agree with just to get you on their side to help prevent wagons on them. I've been duped by scum who was doing that before and it sucks, so in the future maybe don't use that as your sole reason for town reading someone.
This is interesting. I find it somewhat unlikely that Dylan would give out advice on how to form reads to his partner in the game threads. Further detracting from a Dylan/Idplay team.

Also notable in this post is that a couple of reads are given, but Joseph is just stuck into the scum-to-town list witout explanation. Not sure what that means.

Although, having said that, I guess the two of the vets still alive weren't on the wagon, so Joseph and faust's just slid a little bit in my book.  Also, was anyone on the wagon besides Jake himself technically a newb?

LaLight, what about Joseph always looks scummy and what has he done to look towny to you?

unvote because I'm actually not sure if I'd rather lynch Joseph or Calamitas now.
This is an important point during D2. Dylan has been solidly pushing Calamatis for most of the day, now he's backing off and considering Joseph. Will he you for it? The suspense...

Well, the only two newbs that were off wagon were IDPTG and myself, and I already told you why I wasn't on it.  If I remember correctly IDPTG also logged in before the deadline and but after the hammer, so I assume their reasoning would be pretty much the same.  Of course I'm still not sure IDPTG is town, so it is technically possible for you to be right if IDPTG is actually scum.
That's not that important in terms of reads, but it is somewhat unlikely for both scum to be off the Jake wagon. I mean that thing he did may have been considered a scumslipped, but the people on Jake were already voting for Jake before that, so I except a scum there.

Yeah, I would have let you hammer if the case on Joseph hadn't become so interesting.  I think I would rather vote: Joseph than Calamitas for today.
Dylan moves from Calamitas to Joseph, putting them at L-1. The question is, did he decide to bus? It seems possible. At least I never see a real reason for why Joseph is suddenly more scummy than Calamitas. On the other hand, I feel that scum may be afraid of bussing with both PRs still around.

Ok, so my lynch pool for today is either Calamitas or Joseph.  I think there's a pretty good chance one of them is scum, but at this point I'm not sure which one actually is.  I would consider IDPTG, but I do believe their reason for being inactive so I really don't want to see us mislynch due to inactivity when there are better options anyway.
So I don't like the treatment of Idplay in this... but still, there have been instances earlier that make me think this is not the team.

Also, I'm not sure that scum would threaten to never play again if they are lynched. Maybe, but this seems like real frustrated!town.  Vote: Calamitas This is L-1 I think.
And Dylan backs off Joseph again. Actually I think Dylan is rather towny in this. But it's a reasonable move for Joseph's partner; just not sure Dylan could pull it off.

So overall I still feel mild town on Dylan, and partners would be Joseph > Idplay.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1116 on: December 21, 2016, 08:35:04 am »

Oh, and Request prods on RR, Joseph, Idplay, Dylan
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1117 on: December 21, 2016, 08:57:34 am »

Oh, and Request prods on RR, Joseph, Idplay, Dylan
Here
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Joseph2302

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1118 on: December 21, 2016, 08:57:46 am »

But busy
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1119 on: December 21, 2016, 09:43:27 am »

Oh, and Request prods on RR, Joseph, Idplay, Dylan
Sent
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M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1120 on: December 21, 2016, 10:08:29 am »

Alright
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1121 on: December 21, 2016, 10:08:40 am »

Let's not lynch Faust
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1122 on: December 21, 2016, 10:24:14 am »

I think Joseph or IDPTG are the ways to go.

Assuming we correctly lynch, should I babysit my top scum read?
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1123 on: December 21, 2016, 11:27:12 am »

I think Joseph or IDPTG are the ways to go.

Assuming we correctly lynch, should I babysit my top scum read?

Does that block the NK? I think it's interesting that some of faust's town reads on Dylan hinge on Dylan not being good enough of a scum player.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« Reply #1124 on: December 21, 2016, 11:34:39 am »

I think Joseph or IDPTG are the ways to go.

Assuming we correctly lynch, should I babysit my top scum read?

Does that block the NK? I think it's interesting that some of faust's town reads on Dylan hinge on Dylan not being good enough of a scum player.
No, it would cause scum to die if they killed me.
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