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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 121563 times)

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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #375 on: December 07, 2016, 09:15:10 am »

Well my town read definitely faded on LaLight.

Huh, why?
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #376 on: December 07, 2016, 10:53:01 am »

Ok so I have never seen LL as scum but he's panicking way more than usual and I think that LL could be scum here so favoring a LL lynch also still suspicious of Big G but won't lynch him anymore today after a reread I did. 
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #377 on: December 07, 2016, 11:04:21 am »

Ok so I have never seen LL as scum but he's panicking way more than usual and I think that LL could be scum here so favoring a LL lynch also still suspicious of Big G but won't lynch him anymore today after a reread I did.

Panicking? What do you mean?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #378 on: December 07, 2016, 11:04:52 am »

I just never feel good about lynching LaLight. Especially not D1.
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #379 on: December 07, 2016, 11:07:49 am »

I just never feel good about lynching LaLight. Especially not D1.
What do you mean I've never even seen him lynched
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

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Calamitas

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #380 on: December 07, 2016, 11:08:24 am »

Now the setup post I have promised:

First, we have to look into the very nature of PRs in this game. The power of PRs in this setup is separated into two different branches. One the one hand there is the actual power, varying from PR to PR.
The second part is the claiming nature of PRs in this setup. Each power role automatically becomes an IC in an instant as soon as they choose to claim if no immediate counterclaim follows. This applies at any given stage of the game, whether it is D1 or L-1.

Now, let's look into traits that make an IC that powerful. Primarily, an IC is a town player that is just out of the lynch pool (Besides from the sheeping aspect of that role). So, a new IC reduces the lynchpool by 1 without taking a player out of the game. Thereby, the chance of hitting scum with the lynch increases. The concrete numbers are dependent on the number of players alive, it is important to note though that a new IC never puts the chance of hitting a scum above 50% (That number is reached at LyLo). Today, the chance of hitting a scum would increase from 2/9 (~22.2%) to 2/8 (25%). The less players are still alive, the more an additional IC benefits. (With n players and m scums alive, the difference an IC makes is m/(n-1) - m/n  which gets larger the smaller n gets)
 m/n -
Meanwhile, killing an IC is desirable for scum since they reduce the number of townies alive bringing them closer to their victory condition without giving town any info and without reducing the lynchpool.


In the case of a claim, scum might choose to counterclaim. This also applies at any given stage. A counterclaim would always narrow down the lynchpool to two players, giving town a 50% chance of hitting scum.
Therefore, counterclaiming/fakeclaiming never weakens towns chance of hitting scum (taking only lynchpool size into account) in comparison to letting the IC happening (see above). Actually, it is almost always worse (besides from LyLo where it doesn't matter). Therefore, counterclaims/fakeclaims are very unlikely to happen since they would worsen scums situation. And if they occur it is even to towns benefit.

Obviously, the IC-side of some PRs is stronger that their actual power (e.g. weak visitor). But we shouldn't make them claim today except a PR gets actually close to getting hammered. The positive impact of having a PR claim today without necessity is basically null. We can easily ensure that we don't misslynch one by pointing out L-1s and intends to hammer and making sure a player get a few last words in before the hammer falls. Otherwise we just waste a lot of potential, even though the powers themselves might be not that strong. The question is not whether we use PRs as ICs or as default PRs but rather how to use both aspects of the PRs as effective as possible. And making them claim D1 without any need and without any virtual benefit (and giving up both aspects of them that way) is just outright stupid. The longer we have our PR lingering around the stronger they get. In a 3 player LyLo a live PR makes the difference between a ~33% chance of hitting scum and a ~50% chance of hitting the scum. Additionally, they are able to use their power.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #381 on: December 07, 2016, 11:08:40 am »

I just never feel good about lynching LaLight. Especially not D1.
What do you mean I've never even seen him lynched
well you're a new player, aren't you?
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #382 on: December 07, 2016, 11:10:45 am »

Ok so I have never seen LL as scum but he's panicking way more than usual and I think that LL could be scum here so favoring a LL lynch also still suspicious of Big G but won't lynch him anymore today after a reread I did.

Panicking? What do you mean?
You're spam posting and asking tons of questions but not proposing other lynch candidates.
This is my 4th game with LL and Iv'e never seen him lynched
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #383 on: December 07, 2016, 11:12:23 am »

Ok so I have never seen LL as scum but he's panicking way more than usual and I think that LL could be scum here so favoring a LL lynch also still suspicious of Big G but won't lynch him anymore today after a reread I did.

Panicking? What do you mean?
You're spam posting and asking tons of questions but not proposing other lynch candidates.
This is my 4th game with LL and Iv'e never seen him lynched

Well, I proposed you, gkrieg, Calamitas. Is it not a lot?
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #384 on: December 07, 2016, 11:14:48 am »

Ok so I have never seen LL as scum but he's panicking way more than usual and I think that LL could be scum here so favoring a LL lynch also still suspicious of Big G but won't lynch him anymore today after a reread I did.

Panicking? What do you mean?
You're spam posting and asking tons of questions but not proposing other lynch candidates.
This is my 4th game with LL and Iv'e never seen him lynched

Well, I proposed you, gkrieg, Calamitas. Is it not a lot?
Cases Please?
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Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #385 on: December 07, 2016, 11:15:48 am »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #386 on: December 07, 2016, 11:19:24 am »

I just never feel good about lynching LaLight. Especially not D1.
What do you mean I've never even seen him lynched
well you're a new player, aren't you?

I've never been lynched. That doesn't mean though you need to lynch me now.
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #387 on: December 07, 2016, 11:20:52 am »

Ok so I have never seen LL as scum but he's panicking way more than usual and I think that LL could be scum here so favoring a LL lynch also still suspicious of Big G but won't lynch him anymore today after a reread I did.

Panicking? What do you mean?
You're spam posting and asking tons of questions but not proposing other lynch candidates.
This is my 4th game with LL and Iv'e never seen him lynched

Well, I proposed you, gkrieg, Calamitas. Is it not a lot?
Cases Please?

I've made them and you can find them. I'm on the phone. What about making uour own case? On me or gkrieg? Based on reads?
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #388 on: December 07, 2016, 11:24:00 am »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them
I'm not the one who needs to make cases against them and How many votes does LL have
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #389 on: December 07, 2016, 11:24:25 am »

Also Vote: LaLight I think this is L-1
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Mafia Record Overall (6-14) 30%

Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #390 on: December 07, 2016, 11:28:16 am »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them
I'm not the one who needs to make cases against them and How many votes does LL have

Then you don't understand Mafia sadly :)

It's L-2, Jake, Joseph, faust (note: faust was on both wagons)
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IDontPlayThisGame

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #391 on: December 07, 2016, 11:32:49 am »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them
I'm not the one who needs to make cases against them and How many votes does LL have

If we're not making cases against people, I'm voting WW because I was told that guy's scum.

faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #392 on: December 07, 2016, 11:59:07 am »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them
What does this mean? Wh are LaLight's cases any more biased than Jake's?
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JaketheBaseballGod22

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #393 on: December 07, 2016, 12:06:37 pm »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them
I'm not the one who needs to make cases against them and How many votes does LL have

Then you don't understand Mafia sadly :)

It's L-2, Jake, Joseph, faust (note: faust was on both wagons)
I would like to see what your opinions/cases on people are and there's no such thing as a biased case there's just people's case and LL if you don't wanna be lynch give us a better option
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Town Wins (4-11) 26.7% M88L, M89L, NM9L, M91L, M95L, M97L,NM10W, RMM41L, M100L, M103L, M105W, M107W, RMM45W, M109L, RMM46L

Scum Wins (2-3) 40% M87L, M94W, ZM23L, M99L, ZM24W

MVP's: None

Dylan32

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #394 on: December 07, 2016, 12:17:19 pm »

Cases Please?
Why don't you reread/make them yourself? They'll be biased if LaLight makes them

I feel like it is a bit of a double standard to demand Jake makes a case everytime he throws a name out and then to call him out when he requests the same of someone else.  Now if your point was that LL already made them and he should go back and read it, that's one thing, but if you are just telling Jake to reread the thread and not worry about LL's reads, that sounds bad.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #395 on: December 07, 2016, 12:37:16 pm »

If nothing changes much in 2 days, I will switch to him.
This is also quite bad. I thought you townread Clamitas? What changed?

Well, I meant that Calamitas' lynch is better than no-lynch.

Also I didn't quite townread him as i don't townread anybody in particular. D1 lynching VT is better than lynching no one and Calamitas being scum makes sense the same that, idk, RR being scum. Nothing strong alignment-indicative happened.

Also, putting someone to L-1 is good cause it causes sincere reactions which we can follow and uncover partners. So I'm okay with my vote.

Man, yeah, here's my reaction: Vote: LaLight

Yeah, that's a reaction too. Reasons?

I have laid out reasons right before this post; in your words "I've made them and you can find them".

In addition, this post is bad because you're trying to talk away your earlier townread on Calamitas. You have been inconsistent in your Calamitas read, which at first is not scummy, but the way you try to explain that inconsistency away is scummy. This is the read:

2) Calamitas - claim stuff. Looks townie from this perspective

You don't get to say that this is not a townread.

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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #396 on: December 07, 2016, 12:44:15 pm »

Won't quote not to make a huge pyramid.
I have read him as townie and even now i kinda read him as townie. My vote was not pointed to immediate lynching, i wanted a reaction. And even when i read someone town how can i be sure? Especially now? There are two people i want to give d1 pass: idtpg and you. Others are !potentially in a lynchpool. That's what was my vote
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #397 on: December 07, 2016, 02:23:45 pm »

Right now, the people I would probably be okay lynching are {LL, Gkrieg, Jake, RR}. Not getting town reads from them, and everyone else (-Alec/Dylan, which we know almost 0 about) I think are towny for now.
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #398 on: December 07, 2016, 02:36:20 pm »

My computer is in my hands again yay!

So, the first thing is:

Post Count

Jake: 39
Calamitas: 29
Alec/Dylan: 9
gkrieg: 43
IDPTG: 27
Joseph: 26
faust: 58
LaLight: 69
RoadRunner: 26

I don't say this automatically should IC me, I'm saying I was really contributing to the game.

First things first: I am sorry if any of my words seemed rude/inappropriate, most of the time I'm sitting on the phone and it's not convenient to search for my previous posts. Next time I will do it of course. Sorry again.

I don't want to make a huge quoting post, so excuse me, I'm gonna make it like this:

Gkrieg:
43 posts overall:
Fluff (13/43) (means not only the fluff itself, but also when gkrieg splitted one post into 2. One of them is in this category)
#137, #173, #188, #208, #242, #255, #267, #270, #277, #279, #320, #331, #339
Questions/Answers without contribution to the game (13/43):
#145, #197, #266, #307, #308, #325, #329, #343, #349, #374
#89, #101, #167 - agreeing with faust (my case was made in #148)
Useful posts (14/43):
#168, #172, #232, #234, #252, #257, #261, #276, #316, #317, #319, #326, #327, #340

Two posts I want to underline:
#251 (4/14 useful posts):

So I'll say something about 8 and 9 of your list.  scum!faust would definitely take a risk like that, but if you really read his argument, you can see that he is actually right, and was not saying we should mass claim, but that certain PRs would be better as IC (by them claiming) than being what they really are.

I feel like I have actually posted more content than most of the people on your list.  I have taken stands on everything that has been going on.  I'm actually surprised I'm null on your list honestly.

#271:
And also there hasn't been much to comment on in this game.  No one has really done anything.  If you don't believe me, name 3 things that have happened in this game.

That post was mentioned and it is still a bad one. Many happened at that point.

I've lost one post somewhere. Anyway, this is the case. I still felt gkrieg being scummy and decided to look through his game. As you can see his game was 1/3 useful roughly. And the useful things include the answers on questions (i put them there cause they're useful for him to not be lynched). After rereading every written gkrieg's word I will return to Vote: gkrieg and won't switch unless my vote will be needed to avoid no lynch.

That's almost all.

One more thing, which is really important for me. I don't know if you feel this, but i have a slight feeling of negative atmosphere in this game. If everything is fine, I'm sorry, will try to calm this feeling :) If not, please, try to calm down and have fun from this game. I know you're all nice people :)

PPE: 1
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Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #399 on: December 07, 2016, 02:55:26 pm »


Post Count

Jake: 39
Calamitas: 29
Alec/Dylan: 9
gkrieg: 43
IDPTG: 27
Joseph: 26
faust: 58
LaLight: 69
RoadRunner: 26

So I've managed as many posts as most other people, despite only being here 3-4 days?
That's what I'm taking from those stats.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins
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