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Author Topic: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Game over!)  (Read 267709 times)

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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2400 on: June 25, 2016, 10:34:05 am »

Should I motivate Fontisian? I think yes.
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Oh God someone delete this before Roadrunner sees it.

Haddock

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2401 on: June 25, 2016, 10:58:02 am »

Hmm I think I know fontisian's alt wincon.

@Haddock, at first it seemed like your theory was very consistent with what I was thinking, but then you said something that made me think you had something else in mind. So I am pretty confused at what you were getting at now. Are you equally confused at what I'm getting at?
Yeah I have no idea what you're talking about.  Particularly with regards to the 2-1-1.  In that situation I basically can't see a picture in which town don't have to just kingmake.  (Actually I can, but it relies on a PR, and the PR might just die.)

Should I motivate Fontisian? I think yes.
This seems really really dangerous.  It potentially gives fonti a win condition which does not depend on her shooting scum.  Not the best idea.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2402 on: June 25, 2016, 11:19:47 am »

I tend to agree that by PoE silver is the best target.
WW and I are very towny.
lio is pretty towny.
RR COULD be fakeclaiming but I'm not sure what scum role he could have that makes sense.

So silver is the only one left.

That said, let's say we lynch e and he flips scum (which I'm pretty certain of).  Why don't we ask fonti not to kill anyone in that scenario?  Then we end up 3-1-1 in the worst case.   Maybe fonti will be unwilling to do that though, there's probably no path to her victory down that route.

If she's gonna shoot someone definitely though, then I think it can only be silver.


I think maybe I do half-understand what lio is saying about the 2-1-1.  But it's a guess.  Still no idea about fonti's alt-win-condition.  @fonti, it would really help us if you could explain more about your alt-win condition.  I'm starting to doubt that you don't know anything more than what you've told us.  You must know more than you've said, surely.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Witherweaver

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2403 on: June 25, 2016, 12:09:38 pm »

Okay, so, I should read e first:

First RVS vote is on Gkrieg:

Well there is no WW to vote for so I guess

vote: e. Clear partner interactions there

False. LAL. Vote: gkrieg

And Gkrieg voted for him. 

Early posts are replies to not-too-relevant things.  Then votes Seprix:

vote: Seprix

A few more posts that don't really have content, such as:

Babe, why are you yelling about a waffle? Waffles are delicious.

waffles are delicious indeed. but are they a towns food of choice?

Yes. The more I play the more I think hedging and waffling comes from town.

Then this, not sure if it's a joke or not:

you should reconsider your faust read. pretty sure that guy is some sort of evil overlord with a whole mafia team serving him.

I could get behind that case

I mean it sounds like a joke but I remember it being quoted (mistakenly?) as a reason for something. 

sorry...been really slack here.  I still like my seprix vote.

This is true.  570 posts in and no content and one vote.  This is classically scummy, but I don't think it's really e's style of scum.  Though I've been thinking he's scum in all his recent town games, so what do I know.

Okay, a real post:

Just reread through the thread, and there is a lot there. 

RR seems like his classic self, which means he will reveal himself as scum on D3 (if he is scum).  So let's leave him be for now.
Melisandre seems like a pretty confident player, and has been posting all sorts of stuff, and it has read pretty honest to me.  Town for now
liopoil has a lynch brewing in the future for him if he keeps up with the odd posts and 'traps' and such.  Does he really do that as scum?  not so sure. 
fontisian and Jan are both new with melisandre, and although they haven't been as active, they still exist.  I am fine keeping it that way on D1.
gkrieg is still voting me from rvs despite making cases and rereading people and finding them scummy, so....vote: gkrieg
silverspawn has some big posts and has some cool things down.  Scummy stuff not really. 
I voted for Seprix earlier, and maybe that is just because his current play style makes me think scum.  Which, could be right or could be wrong.  Either way, gkrieg is a better place to vote right now.  He is totally just sitting on a vote to look important and not be sitting at "not voting" status
Hydrad is so very Hydrad.  We can lynch him and RR together on D3 when they both breakdown and claim scum for real
I think Awaclus is very provocative, which can be frustrating...but also good.  He gets useful reactions out of people.
ADK does ADK stuff.  He could be town, but I think gkrieg is the better option right now.
Reggie is cool.  Let's not lynch him
Haddock is over-sensitized to any time that I remotely call him scummy.  Half the time it isn't even real.  I mean, like last game in lylo where I totally found him scummy for everything because I had to.  This half...might actually be a real scum read.
Ichi is town.  Because I said so.
Teproc is scum.  Because
you should reconsider your faust read. pretty sure that guy is some sort of evil overlord with a whole mafia team serving him.

I could get behind that case

But we should lynch his minion gkrieg first.

PPE:2

Right, so this is why that joke quote was confusing.  The "Teproc is scum, because" <joke quote about the mod>.  Not sure if this is confusion or just a posting mistake.   So, doesn't say a lot here but I couldn't say much more at this point in the game.  Votes Gkrieg, that's probably the most interesting.  Well, he does go out of his way to mention how much he wants to lynch Gkrieg.. he says "Gkrieg is a better lynch" while discussing other votes, even reiterates his case against Gkrieg while talking about Seprix.  That could betray a bussing mindset. His reasoning for lynching Gkrieg is that Gkrieg voted e for RVS and left his vote there.  So what are the wagons like here?

This is right after Teproc starts a case against Lio.  Lio has four votes maybe.  Gkrieg just had Ichi, but Ichi had unvoted. So scum!e can either get on the Lio wagon or start something else.  Well, if e is scum here, Lio is more likely town, because why start an alternate wagon to your partner with your other partner?  If Lio is scum, e is more likely town by the same reasoning.  If Lio is town, then this is just distancing for scum!e for exactly this kind of future reread.  Of note is that it's a very safe vote on Gkrieg with no real case.

Okay, e doesn't say anything about this growing Lio wagon, he's gone for a bit and:

will work on some focused rereads here shortly (after a league match).  starting with people with the biggest wagons and working my way down.

So now on Lio:

So.  Liopoil.  Opens the game with a bit of fun.  The scumslip argument....'next person to vote reggie' thing...we should make more dominion references...yeah.  These are all liopoil getting into the game, getting comfortable.  Finding his groove.  Nothing wrong with that.  I actually like the general flow and ease with which he posts these.  Would have to be very contrived for scum!liopoil to be doing, and it doesn't look like that at all.

Then he jumps right into the game with some good input and a vote.  There is nothing scummy about this at all.  In fact, I find it quite townie. 

Continuing on we get a bunch of other posts....none of them scummy.  Basically, shame on you guys for thinking liopoil is scum.  Totally town.

This starts out sounding townie by e, good points on Lio's posting.  Ends a little too confident in his read. 

ADK:

ADK - I like his analysis on a lot of things.  Like, for example, in these posts:

How am I doing what I'm describing? Seprix voted for melisandre for having "contrived reads" because it's "too early". I'm saying that that's nonsense, and also suspicious because it's an easy position to take, so I'm voting for him.
I don't like the votes on Seprix. I disagree with his stance but it looks to me like he's earnestly trying to scumhunt.
I've landed as town on Melisandre, just because I think town is much more likely to do the reaction-fishing "gotcha" thing. Also probably town on Jan, I might sheep him on liopoil.
Mmm I need to be less literal. I think on average town waffles more than scum, scum tries to look super certain of their reads.

Overall, I think ADK is making a good effort to scumhunt.  He doesn't glare town to me like liopoil does, but I think he is definitely on the townier side.

On Jan:

Jan - the first half of all his posts were like 100% questions. All he did. Ask questions and make jokes. Then he continued on and began posting more, questions disappeared, analysis began.

Town points for all the town reads he has given. I like the analysis. A solid null-town read just because I don't know him that well. We have better lynches

Doubles down on Gkrieg:

gkrieg's game has consisted entirely of the following two things:

I like the read/post/etc by X person
I don't like the read/post/etc by Y person

So yeah, a lot of 'input' by gkrieg but nothing that is difficult for him.  Just going off whatever other people say.  I am happy keeping my vote here.

This is kind of similar to what I think I remember seeing when reading Gkrieg.. much more reactive than proactive.  Interesting that he doesn't actually post any quotes on this 'reread' (i.e., he doesn't actually need to read partner!Gkrieg), but he didn't for Jan also.

Seprix:

Seprix.  He has that early vote on Melisandre because of the RVS reads post.  I mean, it is a nice little vote that he has decent enough reason for and defends it well.  Very protective of his vote, which could go either way.  I know I like to vote with a case and defend it well as scum or town.  I think really the one thing that we can learn from it is that Melisandre and Seprix are not scum together.  One might be, or the other....but not both.  Basically, if you are going to vote for your partner you don't mistakenly vote for Jan.  You vote for your partner.

I am fairly null on Seprix right now.  He has been around and had some fun interactions, nothing super townie or scummy so far.  I think he lands slightly on the scummy side of null though.

Well I guess he stopped quoting at all.  Does this 'player X and Y must share/not share alignments' thing that I don't like.  Why isn't whatever made you want to vote Seprix earlier compelling now?

Votes Hydrad:

I like Jan's post there.  I don't like his conclusion.  I do agree that hydrad needs some pressure.

vote: hydrad

Well, scum!e would have spent almost all the day voting for his partners.  I don't like the qualification/explanation on the vote though.  It's not really much pressure if you say 'hey I'm trying to pressure you'.

Then reconsiders:

I like Jan's post there.  I don't like his conclusion.  I do agree that hydrad needs some pressure.

vote: hydrad

nevermind.  I actually read Jan's post.  Two can play this game:

Jan - very little posts. has made the effort to give 1 post with content on everyone one way or another.
His reads in itself don't rock my world. gives passes to half of the game without giving a read on them.
Reads are either lose meta jibsor just nothing, not a lot of depths to anything. Let me summarize his reads in my own words just to showcase this :

1. liopoil - null

2. gkrieg13 - IF ADK is scum then they might be partners. IF ADK is town then he feels town.  So......null then

3. fontisian - null


4. silverspawn - talks a lot....doesn't give any reads....kind of feels null/scum?

5. Roadrunner7671 - town

6. Melisandre - town

7. Seprix - town

8. Hydrad - he needs to post more, wouldn't mind lynching

9. Awaclus - null

10. A Drowned Kernel - scum, but not voting because he is V/LA right now

11. J Reggie - town

12. Haddock - town

13. Ichimaru Gin - town?

14. 2.71828..... - scum because his reads list was awful and I am getting to the end of players and I have to find at least one person scummy

15. Jan - let's call myself scum.  They don't seem to react negatively to that here.

16. Teproc - town lean

So he criticizes Jan's read list, and find's Jan scummy.  Doesn't really explain why Jan's list is bad.. I guess the implied argument is that it feels constructed.

vote: Jan

yeah, I totally said I liked Jan's post and didn't really read it all that well.  I saw he made a little case on me and kind of skimmed the rest.  guilty as charged.  But going back and really reading it was enlightening.  I mean, he did the same thing that he called me scummy for.

And yeah, that null-town read I had earlier.  Well, let's switch it to scummy.  I mean, seriously, everything I called him town for I could also call him scum for.  Nice how early reads can progress.  All those questions to get a feel for the game before jumping in exactly where he was comfortable to insure he didn't slip up in an unfamiliar environment.  How is that for twisting around what I said to make it sound scummy?

Lots of explanation for voting here.

So let's see how much i remember of this game :

1. liopoil
Unsure - poor reactions to the pressure. Poor reads so far. I dislike the fonti/lio thing.

Also, leave your vote there on liopoil.  I mean, he is the biggest wagon and you helped start it.  Have to try to keep those scum wagons viable as long as possible.  The longer the idea of a liopoil lynch is on people's minds, the more likely it is to actually happen.

Probably just forgot to vote for me.  Or for himself, for that matter.  I mean, we are the only two real scum based on that reread.  But now it will be OMGUS for you not for me, since I voted you first.

Kind of prods Jan a bit more.. makes e seem less scum here.

guys....RR just went crazy.  I don't know what to do.

Have you met RR before? 

Anyway, I don't see this coming from anything but town!RR.  So yeah, you will live to D3.  I will prepare.

I don't agree.  Though, that one game e modded where RR was scum, e claimed to gain an understanding of scum!RR.  He could have that in his mind here, as scum, to 'read' RR with confidence.

This resurgence of the liopoil wagon is interesting.  I think Jan is a much better option than liopoil.  I will be around on my phone all day to vote to get a lynch.  Whatever we do, we need a lynch today.

Continues to push Jan, prefers him over Lio.  Gkrieg and Seprix are forgotten.  Actually I think if you're a scum busser here, you remember to throw in your partner.  "I think Jan is a much better option than Lio.. could also do partner!Grkeig or mislynch!Seprix".  This is less valid if Lio is scum.

So.  Liopoil.  Opens the game with a bit of fun.  The scumslip argument....'next person to vote reggie' thing...we should make more dominion references...yeah.  These are all liopoil getting into the game, getting comfortable.  Finding his groove.  Nothing wrong with that.  I actually like the general flow and ease with which he posts these.  Would have to be very contrived for scum!liopoil to be doing, and it doesn't look like that at all.

Then he jumps right into the game with some good input and a vote.  There is nothing scummy about this at all.  In fact, I find it quite townie. 

Continuing on we get a bunch of other posts....none of them scummy.  Basically, shame on you guys for thinking liopoil is scum.  Totally town.

That being said, I find jan's unvote interesting. He doesn't immediately jump on the liopoil wagon (which makes sense from a self preservation perspective). But he doesn't close the door on it either. Doesn't want to be on a mislynch?

Are you remembering to pay tax to Ichi for all this 'intersting' usage?

Vote: seprix.

Jan isn't happening and I really am not feeling liopoil. Seprix is a good alternative wagon.

What happened to Gkrieg?

He tries to get more people on Seprix over Lio, ends up absent for the deadline and the Awaclus quicklynch.

So that's Day 1. 

Scum points:
*Any bussing that occurs is when partners are very safe (no real threat of being lynched)
*Case against Gkreig is not very convincing, admits no case for the Hydrad vote
*Only votes Seprix, Gkreig, Jan, Hydrad throughout the day.  Town tends to change opinions more (e even said this).

Town points:
*Makes a case against Jan when lots of other stuff is going on.  Scum here could continue to just slide under-the-radar.  It's also a bit of OMGUS (as Jan called e out for, well, flying under the radar and being scummy), and scum tends to be conscious of OMGUS and avoid it.  Town is more likely to not really care.  However, mitigated a bit by e initially thinking Jan was townie when he found e scummy.  However, if you're scum you don't often backpedal and do a read reversal like that. 
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Witherweaver

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2404 on: June 25, 2016, 12:37:51 pm »

Day 2:

I thought I was going to be around at the end of the day but got pulled into a meeting at work....new bosses and they are trying to change the duties and responsibilities of my job...so yeah. 

Anyway, since I wasn't a part of it, I will strongly condemn that lynch.  It was absolutely awful.  I know, lynching is important, but that lynch totally felt like scum pushing some last minute lynch away from a different last minute lynch of a partner.

I am going back to vote: Seprix

BTW this setup is probably multiball.

This is also interesting.  RR, do you say that because of the size of the game, or what?  I mean, sure, but you seem fairly confident and I don't see anything that says multiball

So starts off back at Seprix.  Makes some more points.

I am saying that scum exists in the pool of people who were lynch candidates at the end of day. So {liopoil, seprix, e, jan}

I am not scum. I don't think liopoil is. Seprix started the movement, as awaclus is an easy enough target to get quick votes due to his sometimes abrasive personality.

Reads are consistent here from the previous Day.  This is generally bad.

I suppose an e/Lio scum team is almost impossible now?  Lio would have to be partners with Gkrieg which is hard.  town!Lio here would just mean some white knighting from e, I guess.  There were multiple times D1 where e deflects away from Lio (towards Jan in the mid-day, to Seprix closer to lynch).  And now has an option to consider Lio but sticks with town read.

Analyzes the Awaclus wagon and concludes that Meli is town.  Finds Seprix and Silver looking bad from it all, prefers Seprix.  Doesn't really say why it can't be Silver except for the 'they can't both be scum' argument, which is weak.

Continues to criticize the end of Day 1.  Either annoyed town or scum playing it up.  I don't get a scummy vibe from it.

Rereads Teproc/me:

Teproc did not feel quite as useful as he usually does.  Which, I mean, doesn't really tell us much of anything.  I don't know, he talked about meta a lot (relatively) which is an easy out for scum. 

He has a couple posts about Awaclus from D1:
Don't you want to hear my solid scum-case on Awaclus?  :-\

You have so much time to say it. Also, before you say anything, Awaclus is the most different individual you will ever encounter in all of fd.s Mafia, and normal tactics that would touch normal people do not even affect him.

LEt's not spoil the delightful (mmmph) surprise of discovering Awaclus to our new friends, please. Same with RR really.

ADK is obvtown already, this is going great.
I'm liking this whole Seprix/melisandre thing; finding both of them townie.

See, this is what a scum read looks like. JR is concerned that the first thing he said wasn't clear enough, so he completes it to be extra clear and to make sure that everyone sees how much he's contributing to the game by stating clear reads. Town rarely thinkgs like that : town assumes you got it until you don't.

Stray thoughts :

Awaclus slightly scummy (hasn't pissed anyone off yet, feels reserved).
RR slightly townie (as much as it's possible for me to read him).
liopoil townie.

Which, I mean, aren't like amazing posts or anything.  But overall I think we have better options for the lynch out there.

Hedges.  e doesn't seem to really consider options other than the person he wants to lynch at the moment.

More talk about the lynch and its reactions.

So yeah, generally, I do not think scum will gloat over a lynch.  silverspawn posted a 'gotcha' before Awaclus, Seprix posted his 'gotcha' 10 seconds after Awaclus posted [probably didn't see Awaclus' post] and then immediately posted hi 'oops we hit town' 20 seconds after that.

Some people post more in twilight than others.  I think for people who do post in twilight a lot (people like Seprix and silverspawn) they will probably be more confident about their lynch as scum and more reserved and anxious as town.  Or maybe I should rethink go home and rethink my life.  anyway, sleep.

Scum thinks about this too, when they're thinking on how to respond.  I think what you have to consider is if posts/reactions feel genuine or contrived.  I guess e's points aren't bad here.

Gone for a while, comes back, suddenly an Iguana wagon.

Not sure what to make of this iguana wagon. The case seems a little...well....fabricated. I will have to go back and look at iguana more carefully

The good thing is, if it is a scum-slip, we can conclude that his scum team also know it was a scum-slip, and are very likely already on his wagon with bus votes  8)

On the other hand, if it wasn't a scumslip, we can still conclude the scum team also knows it wasn't....which might scare them off the wagon constructed around a scum slip.


I am confident that scum exists on that wagon, I just have never been too convinced by "scumslip" arguments. Still need to read iguana as a whole and see how he looks

Doesn't look great for e.. knows he needs to form an opinion on Iguana, reminds us that he's going to do so in case Iguana gets lynched or something.  Says this:

But also, who is more likely to initiate a scum slip argument? Town or scum? I think town.

which I suppose is about Silver?  Continues to push scum!Seprix:

But I think scum!seprix totally jumps onto the argument

looks bad.

Some Gkrieg interactions:

But I think scum!seprix totally jumps onto the argument

Gkrieg's reads:

People I don't think I can lynch -> people I think I can lynch

And then, of wait, it will be kind of hard to lynch e

If e and Lio are town, then Gkrieg doesn't list any partners in people he's willing to lynch.  Not too likely.

Gets around to reading Iguana:

Reread iguana here and didn't get scum vibes from him.  Which probably means he is scum.  Because I always push a mislynch on him when he is actually town.

Not enough for me to vote him right now, but I might if we haven't had movement somewhere else later on in the day.  And yeah, deadlines late at night...most likely not going to be around.

Votes:

That goes for the rest of you, too. A lot of us won't be here later. We need the majority on iguana now. (Looking at you e).

you are right.  We at least need to get someone L-1 or something.  We haven't had any productive wagons yet today.

vote: iguana

That puts Iguana at L-3.   

Moves back to Seprix:

Not going to happen. Try again.

You are way too aggressive to be town. You were quiet the whole game, now you step up randomly. There's no way you're town.
Can you feel my eyes rolling?

Yes, I can.  Can you feel my vote changing?

vote: seprix

I can always go back to iguana later.  Will move before I go to sleep tonight if needed.

Moves back to Iguana:

meh, who am I kidding.  no way seprix gets any momentum right now.

vote: iguana

Moves back to Seprix:

Let's try this: does anyone have any questions for me? I'm not drunk but I have had a little to drink, so kind-of-tipsy-but-not-really AMA?

Are you scum? :)

yeah, Iguana might be inevitable.

you would like that

I'd like to at least see him claim if he has to die, so whoever hammers is an idiot and is an auto-lynch for tomorrow.

this is such a terrible stance to take.

vote: seprix

And maybe Iguana is already lynched but votes him:

wait what?

thats convenient.  we don't have to wait for the flip I guess.

I think we have enough votes already but vote: iguana

This is after Iguana claimed scum.

And that's Day 2.

Not very good looking for e.. delays saying much on the big Iguana wagon or taking action until he has to, finally votes but moves it back and forth, still trying to push Seprix while showing that he's willing to lynch Iguana.

Okay, need to take a  break for now and get some stuff done. Will finish later today or tomorrow.
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liopoil

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2405 on: June 25, 2016, 12:45:33 pm »

yeah, e's white knightib was very effective for a while. I had a strong townread on him until the end of day 3 when he started acting really funny.
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silverspawn

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2406 on: June 25, 2016, 12:52:55 pm »

Should I motivate Fontisian? I think yes.

Uh... I don't know. let's see. Plugging that into my analysis post:

4 - 1 - 2
Lynch Mafia -> 4 - 1 - 1
... Three town get shot -> 1 - 1 - 1 Probably a Loss
... Two towns and mafia get shot -> 2 - 1 Win
... Two towns and SK get shot -> 2 - 1 LyLo
... Both scum get shot -> Win

3 - 1 - 3
Lynch Mafia -> 3 - 1 - 2
... Three towns get shot -> Loss
... Two towns and SK get shot -> Loss
... Two towns and one mafia get shot -> 1 - 1 - 1 Probably a Loss
... Mafia and SK and Town get shot ->  2 - 1 LyLo
... Two Mafia and anyone get shot -> Win

Comparing that to the original:

Let's examine both separately.

4 - 1 - 2
Lynch Mafia -> 4 - 1 - 1
... Two towns get shot -> 2 - 1 - 1 Could be winnable
... Town and scum gets shot -> 3 / 1 MyLo
... Two Scum get shot -> Win

3 - 1 - 3
Lynch Mafia -> 3 - 1 - 2
... Two towns get shot -> Lose
... Town and SK get shot -> Lose
... Town and Mafia get shot -> 2 - 1 - 1 Could be winnable
... Mafia and SK gets shot -> 3 / 1 MyLo

And the answer is actually yes if we trust fontisian.

But if not, then no. Because then she gets a way to win with the very first line: We're at 4/1/1 after lynching e and all three scum shoot town. This might be the most likely outcome. So... yeah, yes if you trust her, no if you don't.

I personally like it because if she does shoot me, then an extra shot could still save the game. Particularly the first half, it could lead us to 2/1 vs the SK which is a win, rather than 2/1/1, which is probably a loss. Or, if mafia shoots the SK, it's the difference between a LyLo and an instant win.

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2407 on: June 25, 2016, 01:10:39 pm »

1-1-1 is indeed probably a loss because of fontisian's bulletproof. It's interesting that ss supports motivating fontisian though.

So, if you're mafia right now, how are you even trying to win? Fontisian obviously just wants e lynched and she'll kill somebody tonight; that's her only shot. But how do the mafia plan on winning this game right now? If it's ss/e, lynching fontisiam probably won't be enough. If it's haddock/e, it totally could be. If it's WW/e same. If e is town, mafia wins by lynching e.

But what are ss/e doing to try to win right now, if it's them? Because it looks like they might just both die before tomorrow.
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2408 on: June 25, 2016, 03:35:20 pm »

I am trying to lynch fontisian
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2409 on: June 25, 2016, 03:35:38 pm »

I am trying to lynch fontisian

You know, the person who claimed scum
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2410 on: June 25, 2016, 03:49:12 pm »

So, if you're mafia right now, how are you even trying to win?

You probably support the fontisian lynch and then hope to win in a normal game.

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2411 on: June 25, 2016, 03:56:41 pm »

I mean, e and Haddock are trying to lynch me. QED.

I could make no shots or two shots if that would be better.
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Dread Empress fontisian (may she never return)
Smooth like Sandpaper

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2412 on: June 25, 2016, 04:12:57 pm »

Definitely one shot. I'm not sure if I'll motivate you. If I do, if I were you I'd shoot two people. But I'm not you.
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2413 on: June 25, 2016, 06:47:24 pm »

I don't think I'll be able to finish up tonight.  Will tomorrow.

It's certainly not clear to me that lynching e over Font is better for us, even if e is Mafia. 
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2414 on: June 25, 2016, 06:48:19 pm »

Two shots would make things swingier, right?
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2415 on: June 25, 2016, 06:52:29 pm »

Two shots would make things swingier, right?

yeah, but also just better, I think.

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2416 on: June 25, 2016, 06:56:47 pm »

Two shots would make things swingier, right?
Even if fontisian shot, say, Haddock instead of you?

yeah, but also just better, I think.
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2417 on: June 25, 2016, 07:01:13 pm »

Possibly, Haddock could be scum.

But since she doesn't really know who scum is, and she might try to hit scum anyway, yeah I support two shots.

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2418 on: June 25, 2016, 07:16:17 pm »

I'm here briefly before bed.

I had forgotten that it was silver who pointed out iguana's slip. That makes me want to shoot him less. But who else is there? I don't see partners!RR and e,  nor really lio as scum.  And WW is really towny.

Ugh.

I guess lynching e and motivating fonti is ok.  Im advocating for fonti lynch over e purely because we don't know the fullness of fonti's win condition and if she's hiding something from us then it may well be to her benefit to kill town.  I'd really really like to know her other win condition.

But realistically yeah an e lynch and a motivation is ok if we wanna trust fonti.  Especially if there's to be any serious talk of killing me. If that's a thing I'd obviously rather a Mafia died too.

There really shouldn't be such talk though. I'm the second towniest person here after WW. And I have been pushing the scum!e case hard today. When he flips scum you'll know I'm town.
Also all the other things that make me towny. Like my stance on gkrieg and ADK.
Seriously. I can't believe anyone is even considering killing me.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

silverspawn

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2419 on: June 25, 2016, 07:32:30 pm »

You pushed e, who is not even confirmed scum, and would probably be lynched anyway.

I drove the lynch of a player who is now confirmed scum and who wouldn't have been lynched anyway.

Can you see which important observation is to be drawn from this?

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2420 on: June 25, 2016, 07:46:03 pm »

You're good at bussing?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2421 on: June 25, 2016, 07:46:25 pm »

Remember you and Haddock in fruit ninja mafia?
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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2422 on: June 25, 2016, 07:48:31 pm »

Remember you and Haddock in fruit ninja mafia?

er... no. The main thing that I remember about that game was that I had a narrow-minded argument and said some stupid stuff.

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2423 on: June 25, 2016, 07:49:17 pm »

I drove the iguana wagon too, friend.
I was second only to you on that front.

You were also second on the ADK wagon while I actively resisted it.

I honestly do not remotely see where this idea of scum!me is coming from.
Bedtime. 
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: M79: Sherlock Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #2424 on: June 25, 2016, 08:02:32 pm »

OK Haddock is overreacting and it's mildly scummy. I don't think we should kill Haddock, but if fontisian is killing people, I think they should be silver > haddock > WW > RR > lio, so Haddock would be the second kill if I were calling the shots. Like, everyone is towny at this point. But ss sure looks like he might have gotten caught on the iguana wagon. Could easily have been what he thought was some harmless distancing with what was a bad scumslip argument that he then had to stick to.

Hey e, do mafia have daychat?
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