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[liopoil]

Well yikes, I haven't read much if WW's posts yet but there's basically no way some of the stuff in there is fabricated. Clearly this had to have been written during the night before he knew everyone who would be dead and some of this stuff looks gold for him with gkrieg as confirmed scum.

[liopoil]

Can you link me to your RR re-read?

[Witherweaver]

It could just be a separate scum team.  Could we have two teams plus an SK?

[Witherweaver]

Can you link me to your RR re-read?

It's this post

[Witherweaver]

Oh, that's the link to replying...

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14936.msg611471#msg611471

[liopoil]

It could just be a separate scum team.  Could we have two teams plus an SK?

With only one death night one?

Also, it would be weird for gkrieg to be the only mafia PR. I'm pretty sure that there's a third mafia, and that they bussed Hydrad/Iguana.

A second ago I thought it was Roadrunner but now I'm not so sure. Actually moght be fontisian.

[Witherweaver]

It could just be a separate scum team.  Could we have two teams plus an SK?

With only one death night one?

Also, it would be weird for gkrieg to be the only mafia PR. I'm pretty sure that there's a third mafia, and that they bussed Hydrad/Iguana.

A second ago I thought it was Roadrunner but now I'm not so sure. Actually moght be fontisian.

It's possible, things like that have happened before... Poison mechanic delays death; Faust had that mechanic in Buffy Mafia.  That game actually had three killing factions, too.  Plus Jailkeeping, multiple targetting can happen, etc.  Ichi was Vig, but Vigs often don't shoot Night 1. 

How do you think we had three deaths?

[liopoil]

Yesterday I said my wagon was scummy, and it was. But ADK was town, and Haddock/WW are more towny now. I guess they're mostly just towny in the not-mafia sense. But it could be that gkrieg was the only scum on my wagon.

It could just be a separate scum team.  Could we have two teams plus an SK?

With only one death night one?

Also, it would be weird for gkrieg to be the only mafia PR. I'm pretty sure that there's a third mafia, and that they bussed Hydrad/Iguana.

A second ago I thought it was Roadrunner but now I'm not so sure. Actually moght be fontisian.

It's possible, things like that have happened before... Poison mechanic delays death; Faust had that mechanic in Buffy Mafia.  That game actually had three killing factions, too.  Plus Jailkeeping, multiple targetting can happen, etc.  Ichi was Vig, but Vigs often don't shoot Night 1. 

How do you think we had three deaths?

Probably two parties and another weird death like you mentioned, possibly caused (maybe indirectly) by town.

[liopoil]

Anyway, if the pattern continues we'll have four deaths tonight, which pretty much means we lose.

[Witherweaver]

Anyway, if the pattern continues we'll have four deaths tonight, which pretty much means we lose.

That's presumptuous; it could be a Fibonacci sequence and we're looking at 5 deaths.

[liopoil]

Anyway, if the pattern continues we'll have four deaths tonight, which pretty much means we lose.

Then why were there no deaths night zero?

That's presumptuous; it could be a Fibonacci sequence and we're looking at 5 deaths.

[liopoil]

Anyway, if the pattern continues we'll have four deaths tonight, which pretty much means we lose.

That's presumptuous; it could be a Fibonacci sequence and we're looking at 5 deaths.

Then why were there no deaths night zero?

Fixed quotefail.

[Witherweaver]

Anyway, if the pattern continues we'll have four deaths tonight, which pretty much means we lose.

That's presumptuous; it could be a Fibonacci sequence and we're looking at 5 deaths.

Then why were there no deaths night zero?

Fixed quotefail.

Fibonacci sequences are defined for any initial f0, f1. The standard is f0=f1=1, but you could start with f0=1, f1=2. 

[2.71828.....]

yeah, WW looks pretty townie right now.

[2.71828.....]

Some of RR's early comments about there being multiple scum factions and stuff are especially interesting at this point in time.

[2.71828.....]

I think that they actually make him scummy.  Sure, he could be town speculating about the setup.  But at this point it seems clear that multiple factions exist.  Or something.  I think those comments are actually informed comments trying to give a show of theory talk when he actually knows some of the setup because he is in a faction and evaluated his faction's abilities and decided unless it was multi-ball of some sort there is no way that his faction was the only scum out there.

[Witherweaver]

I think that they actually make him scummy.  Sure, he could be town speculating about the setup.  But at this point it seems clear that multiple factions exist.  Or something.  I think those comments are actually informed comments trying to give a show of theory talk when he actually knows some of the setup because he is in a faction and evaluated his faction's abilities and decided unless it was multi-ball of some sort there is no way that his faction was the only scum out there.

I think RR didn't start that discussion, though.

[liopoil]

Anyway, if the pattern continues we'll have four deaths tonight, which pretty much means we lose.

That's presumptuous; it could be a Fibonacci sequence and we're looking at 5 deaths.

Then why were there no deaths night zero?

Fixed quotefail.

Fibonacci sequences are defined for any initial f0, f1. The standard is f0=f1=1, but you could start with f0=1, f1=2. 

But shouldn't night zero be f0? We could say faust died N0 or something. My rule is more elegant though: deaths = night number.

[liopoil]

Any non-mafia who are still bad guys will be tough to catch, hmm.

[Haddock]

OK so WW is pretty much conftown.
lio looks way townier now as well.
Glad I was right about gkrieg.

I think looking at the ADK wagon and at II's and gkrieg's reads should be pretty fruitful.  I'll do this when I get a chance.

Who's left?
Me (town)
WW, lio (probable town)
e, fonti, RR, silver.

Well, my instinct tells me e is scummy.  The other three, eh.  RR is maybe a bit scummy based on positions and stuff.  Need to have a proper look though.

[liopoil]

Iguanaiguana is the person I feel worst about mislynching. I don't know why. If nothing better has appeared by 1:00 AM, I'll probably join. But reluctantly.

It's because we played dominion together in Michigan.

Look, it's okay Roadrunner, you can mislynch me.

Okay ADK pointed this out at the end lf day 2 but it got missed. Wow

[liopoil]

Town:
Melisandre
Roadrunner7671
Teproc
A Drowned Kernel

Slight Town
iguanaiguana

Null
Jan

Slight Scum
fontisian
silverspawn
J Reggie
Haddock

Scum:
liopoil
Seprix
2.71828.....

So now this is the reads list.  I think I'll reread e then Seprix then lio.  As that is the order of my scum reads on them.

e reread:

after RVS, he votes for Seprix

he has a lot of empty posts then says that he has a lot of empty posts but that he likes his Seprix vote

Just reread through the thread, and there is a lot there. 

RR seems like his classic self, which means he will reveal himself as scum on D3 (if he is scum).  So let's leave him be for now.

Melisandre seems like a pretty confident player, and has been posting all sorts of stuff, and it has read pretty honest to me.  Town for now

liopoil has a lynch brewing in the future for him if he keeps up with the odd posts and 'traps' and such.  Does he really do that as scum?  not so sure. 

fontisian and Jan are both new with melisandre, and although they haven't been as active, they still exist.  I am fine keeping it that way on D1.

gkrieg is still voting me from rvs despite making cases and rereading people and finding them scummy, so....vote: gkrieg

silverspawn has some big posts and has some cool things down.  Scummy stuff not really.
 
I voted for Seprix earlier, and maybe that is just because his current play style makes me think scum.  Which, could be right or could be wrong.

Either way, gkrieg is a better place to vote right now.  He is totally just sitting on a vote to look important and not be sitting at "not voting" status

Hydrad is so very Hydrad.  We can lynch him and RR together on D3 when they both breakdown and claim scum for real

I think Awaclus is very provocative, which can be frustrating...but also good.  He gets useful reactions out of people.

ADK does ADK stuff.  He could be town, but I think gkrieg is the better option right now.

Reggie is cool.  Let's not lynch him

Haddock is over-sensitized to any time that I remotely call him scummy.  Half the time it isn't even real.  I mean, like last game in lylo where I totally found him scummy for everything because I had to.  This half...might actually be a real scum read.

Ichi is town.  Because I said so.

Teproc is scum.  Because

you should reconsider your faust read. pretty sure that guy is some sort of evil overlord with a whole mafia team serving him.

I could get behind that case

But we should lynch his minion gkrieg first.

PPE:2

I guess I OMGUS'd a little bit from this.  But I also made it a little bit easier to read now.  This is an interesting reads list.  I also think the case on me isn't a particularly good one.  The other thing about this reads list is that it doesn't really add anything to the game because he doesn't really give good reasons for any of his reads.

here he says that lio is totally town from his posts.  Something to keep in mind if lio flips scum.

I actually just don't like how all of his rereads look. 

he comes out on the scummy side of null on Seprix, then reads me as scummy, then votes for Hydrad after Jan's post.

here, he gives a good case on Jan actually.  This is a very natural feeling case on someone.

stays on the vein that he doesn't want a lio lynch but is fine with the Seprix lynch when he doesn't think the Jan lynch is going to happen.

stays on Seprix

I am saying that scum exists in the pool of people who were lynch candidates at the end of day. So {liopoil, seprix, e, jan}

I am not scum. I don't think liopoil is. Seprix started the movement, as awaclus is an easy enough target to get quick votes due to his sometimes abrasive personality.

This wagon analysis is interesting.  He thinks that both he and lio are town and that Seprix started the Awaclus wagon to ensure that he wasn't the lynch.  I think if he really thinks that both he and lio are town, why would everyone try to switch to Awaclus instead of just pushing the existing "town" wagons.  I'll have to think more about this analysis to see if it makes any sense to me.

this post and this post seem actually pretty townie to me.

Rereads Teproc and says that there are better lynches out there, but he doesn't want to defend him.

says that Iguana's thing that he commented wasn't a townslip or a scumslip.  Just a new to f.ds-slip

Says that scum is on Iguana's wagon, and thinks it feels fabricated.

Is still insistent that Seprix is scum.

Conclusion

This reread actually weakens my scum read on him.  He is still in the scum lean section of my reads list.  I think he has some much townier posts today, but his D1 looks really bad actually.

Hmm I think e looks kind of bad from this

[liopoil]

Extremely likely NOT Mafia:
liopoil
Witherweaver
Haddock
fontisian

Could in theory be Mafia
Silverspawn

Probably one or both of these are Mafia:
Roadrunner
e

I think these are good odds for us.

[liopoil]

IIRC, at the end of the day yesterday, silverspawn, gkrieg, and e were all waffling between two mislynches: ADK and myself. Mafiapoints to ss and e for that. In fact I might switch ss and RR in my sorting post, even though ss supported the Hydrad/Iguana lynch.

[liopoil]

Gkrieg's vote is one I can get behind.
Vote: ADK

Wait what does this mean?  Why did you wait for me to vote?

Indeed, what DOES this mean?