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Author Topic: The Necro Wars  (Read 344995 times)

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faust

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6400 on: February 06, 2024, 07:41:35 am »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.
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Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6401 on: February 06, 2024, 08:17:22 am »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie. I don't think European green parties are particularly sympathetic to authoritarian regimes overall and they e.g. support EU, support Ukraine and some have reconsidered their anti-NATO stances recently etc (some, especially Eastern European, green parties weren't anti-NATO in the first place), but they do tend to have a lot of overlap with the pacifist movement, and the pacifist movement has some overlap with tankies and in general advocates for policies that at least happen to be advantageous for Russia and China even if this is not usually intentional.
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BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6402 on: February 06, 2024, 10:43:11 am »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie.
How did you come to this idea? I'm Green since 2000 and not tankie. No one i know who is Green is tankie.

BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6403 on: February 06, 2024, 10:43:25 am »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie.
How did you come to this idea? I'm Green since 2000 and not tankie. No one i know who is Green is tankie.

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6404 on: February 06, 2024, 11:15:05 am »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie.
How did you come to this idea? I'm Green since 2000 and not tankie. No one i know who is Green is tankie.
E.g. by reading their website. https://www.gp.org/peace_in_ukraine_say_no_to_endless_us_wars
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BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6405 on: February 06, 2024, 12:15:56 pm »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie.
How did you come to this idea? I'm Green since 2000 and not tankie. No one i know who is Green is tankie.
E.g. by reading their website. https://www.gp.org/peace_in_ukraine_say_no_to_endless_us_wars
What is your definition of "tankie"? I went here <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankie> since i had never heard that term before. I see no overlap. Maybe you could actually explain the overlap as you see it.

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6406 on: February 06, 2024, 04:16:20 pm »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie.
How did you come to this idea? I'm Green since 2000 and not tankie. No one i know who is Green is tankie.
E.g. by reading their website. https://www.gp.org/peace_in_ukraine_say_no_to_endless_us_wars
What is your definition of "tankie"? I went here <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankie> since i had never heard that term before. I see no overlap. Maybe you could actually explain the overlap as you see it.

Someone who is so extremely anti-west that they'd rather support a fascist dictatorship than a democracy if the latter is aligned with the west and the former isn't.
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BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6407 on: February 06, 2024, 05:10:18 pm »

which is a green party but without the tankies
Also, are there normally tankies in Green parties? This is news to me.

The US Green Party is very tankie.
How did you come to this idea? I'm Green since 2000 and not tankie. No one i know who is Green is tankie.
E.g. by reading their website. https://www.gp.org/peace_in_ukraine_say_no_to_endless_us_wars
:)
What is your definition of "tankie"? I went here <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tankie> since i had never heard that term before. I see no overlap. Maybe you could actually explain the overlap as you see it.
:)
[size=312pt]Someone who is so extremely anti-west that they'd rather support a fascist dictatorship than a democracy if the latter is aligned with the west and the former isn't.[/size]
:)
How do you define "support"? I went here <https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/support>. I don't see the "support" that you do. Could you explain this seemingly logical leap?
:)

Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6408 on: February 06, 2024, 06:35:23 pm »

Do you seriously not see how demanding that the US should stop sending aid to Ukraine while it's being invaded by Russia supports Russia?
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BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6409 on: February 06, 2024, 08:17:43 pm »

Do you seriously not see how demanding that the US should stop sending aid to Ukraine while it's being invaded by Russia supports Russia?
Go ahead and quote the part that your mind reaches to make this argument then instead of wasting our time beating around the bush.

BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6410 on: February 06, 2024, 08:57:45 pm »

:)
Here is a useful site <https://www.scribbr.com/academic-essay/argumentative-essay/>.
:)

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6411 on: February 06, 2024, 09:48:18 pm »

Not that many people in the US are actually happy to be voting for Trump, they do it because they don't feel like they have better options, which is not that hard to happen when they only have one other option and most of the other option's voters also agree that they aren't happy to be voting for him, they just do it because they don't feel like they have better options. The fact that most Americans are in agreement that there aren't really any good options to vote for shows 1) that the average American does actually have reasonable takes on politics 2) that the American democracy is fundamentally extremely imperfect.

It's all connected in my mind, the lack of democracy and the support for the far-right.

The far-right benefits because it can put itself in a perceived opposition to a system that does not serve the interests of the average citizen. The system does not serve their interests because people in critical positions are reliant on the support of corporations. Corporate power stems from the undemocratic control that wealthy people have over the economy. If corporations were worker-controlled, we could significantly remove their influence over politics, and when they do lobby, it would be on behalf of the workers rather than their rich shareholders.

At the same time, a corporatized media landscape pushes the interests of the media owners, which align more with the far-right than the left. Here again worker democracy in journalism would allow them to set an agenda that is more closely aligned with the interests of the people.

The problems in the US and in Germany are systemic.

:)
Both of these ring very true to my lived experience. Since about half of US voters in any given election have no reasonable choices they just don't bother voting, while others vote for the least bad option. Gerrymandering and other systemic issues like plurality voting are barriers to the public having reasonable representation.
:)

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6412 on: February 07, 2024, 04:33:02 am »

So I'm very a-priori skeptical about this whole cluster of beliefs. A lot of it is for reasons that aren't entirely fair, but they're also important enough that I'll just talk about them anyway.

The basic problem is that a belief like "democracy is actually good, but the systemic issues corrupt it, and what we need to do is fight as much of the systemic problems as possible to get more of the underlying good" is incredibly emotionally compelling. This goes far beyond ordinary confirmation bias; it's a belief that you can structure your entire world view around. You can use it as a reason to justify your political leanings, a a simple story to make sense of just about any political story or development, and as a framework to view the entire political battle in a positive light. It's about as powerful as an idea as it gets.

My views about consciousness also come into play here because I strongly believe that a lot of what people do is controlled by their aesthetics, where an aesthetic is something like "the way the brain constructs valence out of certain input patterns". This could mean that a certain kind of visual art or music feels nice to engage with, but it can absolutely also refer to abstract or ideological ideas. And imo it has a disgustingly large influence in people's world view because man almost no one actively defends concepts that feel unpleasant to them. Find me a single communist who, when they hear the word "communism", has an ick reaction of the kind that many people have today. And anyone who has an aesthetic that's broadly anti-cynical -- anything that wants to believe in the intrinsic worth and non-stupidity of people -- is at high "risk" for extending that toward democracy because the two concepts are so closely related.

So what's the probability that this incredibly emotionally compelling view also happens to be true? Well, it's exactly as likely to be true as if it weren't compelling. It's the poker analog of "what's the probability that this maniac who plays every hand has aces?" and the answer is "exactly 1/221" because being incredibly aggressive doesn't make it any less likely to get a monster hand. P(idea is true) itself is unchanged. However, what does change is P(people have view | view is actually false) (the analog here is P(person is ultra aggressive | they don't have aces)) -- and in extension P(people have view | view is correct), which is the value that matters to me, changes as well.

So with that said, it's certainly possible that pure democracy is good and the problem are just the systemic issues, but from me PoV, I have to discount people arguing for it heavily because I'm pretty sure a lot of people would argue for this even if it were false. That's why I call all-ins from maniacs with weak top pairs, and well sometimes they have the nuts and I lose everything. As I said, this is a very unfair argument since it's psycho-analyzing people rather than engaging with the actual substance, but the emotional component is so powerful here that it's kind of silly not to bring it up. So yeah, I'm just very very skeptical about this whole view, especially if the arguments themselves also don't strike me as convincing

Quote from: Awaclus
Not that many people in the US are actually happy to be voting for Trump, they do it because they don't feel like they have better options, which is not that hard to happen when they only have one other option and most of the other option's voters also agree that they aren't happy to be voting for him, they just do it because they don't feel like they have better options. The fact that most Americans are in agreement that there aren't really any good options to vote for shows 1) that the average American does actually have reasonable takes on politics 2) that the American democracy is fundamentally extremely imperfect.

I mean in some sense that's true, there would be a hypothetical better option. But Trump is currently running against Nikki Haley, who is a pretty hardline Republican, has quite a likeable personality (at least to me), is strong, and actually pretty sane for the most part. She seems like a really good candidate to me, and she's polling at around 17.8% in the national primary. So overall, this analysis just seems much more false than true to me. Trump isn't just the only option; people actually genuinely want this guy over more regular republicans, even if they're pretty good regular republicans. I'd have bought it a little more 8 years ago where the Republican field was mostly filled with morons except for Kasich, who's a very sane guy (probably more than Haley) but didn't have a lot of charisma. But with Haley right there and now the sole surviving choice, I completely don't buy this.

Quote from: faust
It's all connected in my mind, the lack of democracy and the support for the far-right.

The far-right benefits because it can put itself in a perceived opposition to a system that does not serve the interests of the average citizen. The system does not serve their interests because people in critical positions are reliant on the support of corporations. Corporate power stems from the undemocratic control that wealthy people have over the economy. If corporations were worker-controlled, we could significantly remove their influence over politics, and when they do lobby, it would be on behalf of the workers rather than their rich shareholders.

At the same time, a corporatized media landscape pushes the interests of the media owners, which align more with the far-right than the left. Here again worker democracy in journalism would allow them to set an agenda that is more closely aligned with the interests of the people.

The problems in the US and in Germany are systemic.

Similar reaction here. I mean this is incredibly difficult to respond to because it basically incorporates the entire left-leaning world view, which I know you can do a really good job arguing for. But man. It really seems to me like my own story of "people just aren't very smart and easily influenced to believe dumb shit" is simpler and explains the situation equally well.

Quote from: BryGuy
Both of these ring very true to my lived experience. Since about half of US voters in any given election have no reasonable choices they just don't bother voting, while others vote for the least bad option.

If this were true, I would expect turnout to be much higher in primaries than in the general election, which is the opposite of what we see, and for it to be higher if the candidates in the general are reasonable, which I think is also the opposite of what we see. If the problem is that both Trump and Biden are bad choices, then -- from the PoV of a republican -- you should vote for Haley! The primary is on-going, this would be exactly the time where we should see high turnout. Haley seems to me like everything this hypothetical reasonable Republican who is just held down by the system would want.

The story is more plausible on the Democratic side, but then again, 4 years ago we had a primary there, and they chose Biden... while one of the people running against him was imo the most sane and rational person I've ever seen in politics by a mile. (People will disagree with me, but do you really think there was no good option there?) The "least bad option" thing just doesn't resonate if they chose the bad option before that, and if turnout while choosing that option was lower than when only the bad options were left.

silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6413 on: February 07, 2024, 04:42:00 am »

To be clear I think Haley has several bad policy ideas (the worst one is to exit the Paris agreement); I'm only saying that from the PoV of Republicans she should be a really good option. She's also one of the few Republican candidates who conceded that climate change is a real threat, the Paris thing is more because of her hardline nationalist views if I understood correctly.

Like man, she's a so much better choice than Trump for anyone who actually has the values that they claim make them vote for Trump. Putting America first, being a fighter, and being for strong borders and fiscal responsibility or whatever; I'm almost 100% certain that she would do way better than him on every one of these points.

My best model of why people like Trump is from this 8:22 minute long Sam Harris podcast https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/224-key-trumps-appeal, which also explains why Republicans do not vote for Haley. She's far better at representing the values they claim to have, but much worse at representing the values they actually have.

faust

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6414 on: February 07, 2024, 08:05:42 am »

It really seems to me like my own story of "people just aren't very smart and easily influenced to believe dumb shit" is simpler and explains the situation equally well.
It don't think this story explains anything. Who does the influencing? Are those people smart? Why are they smart and others not?

Your story has just like, zero explanatory power.
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faust

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6415 on: February 07, 2024, 08:09:10 am »

And as for psychologically appealing theories: I think it can be argued that a theory that soothes the own ego by reaffirming that you are so much smarter than everyone else has more appeal than one that posits that you need to take everyone seriously.
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Awaclus

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6416 on: February 07, 2024, 09:11:19 am »

Do you seriously not see how demanding that the US should stop sending aid to Ukraine while it's being invaded by Russia supports Russia?
Go ahead and quote the part that your mind reaches to make this argument then instead of wasting our time beating around the bush.



By the way, I have a proposal: let's both stop using stupid fonts.
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BryGuy

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6417 on: February 07, 2024, 09:16:12 am »


Quote from: BryGuy
Both of these ring very true to my lived experience. Since about half of US voters in any given election have no reasonable choices they just don't bother voting, while others vote for the least bad option.

If this were true, I would expect turnout to be much higher in primaries than in the general election, which is the opposite of what we see, and for it to be higher if the candidates in the general are reasonable, which I think is also the opposite of what we see. If the problem is that both Trump and Biden are bad choices, then -- from the PoV of a republican -- you should vote for Haley! The primary is on-going, this would be exactly the time where we should see high turnout. Haley seems to me like everything this hypothetical reasonable Republican who is just held down by the system would want.

The story is more plausible on the Democratic side, but then again, 4 years ago we had a primary there, and they chose Biden... while one of the people running against him was imo the most sane and rational person I've ever seen in politics by a mile. (People will disagree with me, but do you really think there was no good option there?) The "least bad option" thing just doesn't resonate if they chose the bad option before that, and if turnout while choosing that option was lower than when only the bad options were left.
:)
Why would you expect turn-out to be higher? Party primary are inside battles, that draw the few people who actually care. What kind of logic are you using to conclude more people care about primaries? I think Dominion is a great game, but i don't see this site flooded.

Why do you think Trump supporters are rational players? What would lead you to that odd conclusion? Sure Haley is the better choice and would provide, in theory, more of a challenge to Biden if the Republican party was largely comprised of rational players.

We know Trump and Biden are bad choices. Look at the opinion polls. US voters want more choices, but more choices are mitigated by plurality voting. In plurality voting, a system where you can't express but one opinion so you can not show favor to several potential alternatives, you must instead vote against all other options. So the US continues to only have two big-tent parties that house multiple factions. This leads to half of the US population with no meaningful representation at any level or branch of government.

Biden came about because of systemic problems with the Democratic primary and primaries in general. If as a policy the US only publicly funds the primaries of the two largest parties then there is the appearance that there are no other viable options, despite most ballots showing about a dozen options for US President each year. Also the primaries do not all occur on the same day, but are spread out. While this might have been fine before the advent of the the telegram with today's communication ability this allows a monied interest to divide and conquer the early states to steer the trajectory in their favor.

:)

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6418 on: February 07, 2024, 10:24:36 am »

So I'm very a-priori skeptical about this whole cluster of beliefs. A lot of it is for reasons that aren't entirely fair, but they're also important enough that I'll just talk about them anyway.

The basic problem is that a belief like "democracy is actually good, but the systemic issues corrupt it, and what we need to do is fight as much of the systemic problems as possible to get more of the underlying good" is incredibly emotionally compelling. This goes far beyond ordinary confirmation bias; it's a belief that you can structure your entire world view around. You can use it as a reason to justify your political leanings, a a simple story to make sense of just about any political story or development, and as a framework to view the entire political battle in a positive light. It's about as powerful as an idea as it gets.

My views about consciousness also come into play here because I strongly believe that a lot of what people do is controlled by their aesthetics, where an aesthetic is something like "the way the brain constructs valence out of certain input patterns". This could mean that a certain kind of visual art or music feels nice to engage with, but it can absolutely also refer to abstract or ideological ideas. And imo it has a disgustingly large influence in people's world view because man almost no one actively defends concepts that feel unpleasant to them. Find me a single communist who, when they hear the word "communism", has an ick reaction of the kind that many people have today. And anyone who has an aesthetic that's broadly anti-cynical -- anything that wants to believe in the intrinsic worth and non-stupidity of people -- is at high "risk" for extending that toward democracy because the two concepts are so closely related.

Well, you can't credibly accuse me of holding beliefs just because they sound nice to my aesthetic sensibilities. I defend a lot of concepts that feel unpleasant to me, and I think I should have a pretty well established track record of doing that. For example, I think abortion is pretty disgusting, and I have put in active effort to make it easier for people to get abortions in Finland (by convincing my party to support a citizens' initiative, which I actually take full credit for because nobody else was doing it, so I went through our political program to find stuff to justify it with even though there's nothing there about abortion specifically and then I proposed the idea and posted my justifications and it ended up getting done).

So what's the probability that this incredibly emotionally compelling view also happens to be true? Well, it's exactly as likely to be true as if it weren't compelling. It's the poker analog of "what's the probability that this maniac who plays every hand has aces?" and the answer is "exactly 1/221" because being incredibly aggressive doesn't make it any less likely to get a monster hand. P(idea is true) itself is unchanged. However, what does change is P(people have view | view is actually false) (the analog here is P(person is ultra aggressive | they don't have aces)) -- and in extension P(people have view | view is correct), which is the value that matters to me, changes as well.

So with that said, it's certainly possible that pure democracy is good and the problem are just the systemic issues, but from me PoV, I have to discount people arguing for it heavily because I'm pretty sure a lot of people would argue for this even if it were false. That's why I call all-ins from maniacs with weak top pairs, and well sometimes they have the nuts and I lose everything. As I said, this is a very unfair argument since it's psycho-analyzing people rather than engaging with the actual substance, but the emotional component is so powerful here that it's kind of silly not to bring it up. So yeah, I'm just very very skeptical about this whole view, especially if the arguments themselves also don't strike me as convincing

You could say that about literally any political position that some people find aesthetically appealing. You support UBI yourself, and that's the exact same thing as democracy except for the market instead of politics, so it's basically equally vulnerable to this.

I mean in some sense that's true, there would be a hypothetical better option. But Trump is currently running against Nikki Haley, who is a pretty hardline Republican, has quite a likeable personality (at least to me), is strong, and actually pretty sane for the most part. She seems like a really good candidate to me, and she's polling at around 17.8% in the national primary. So overall, this analysis just seems much more false than true to me. Trump isn't just the only option; people actually genuinely want this guy over more regular republicans, even if they're pretty good regular republicans. I'd have bought it a little more 8 years ago where the Republican field was mostly filled with morons except for Kasich, who's a very sane guy (probably more than Haley) but didn't have a lot of charisma. But with Haley right there and now the sole surviving choice, I completely don't buy this.

I bet the average American thinks Haley would be a better president than Trump. 90-93% of Americans don't vote in the Republican primaries, so that is simply an example of how the system isn't democratic enough to work properly. Also, Trump is a more established candidate, so he is inherently favored because that's just the bias that representative democracy inherently introduces to the system even when it's perfectly implemented.

Similar reaction here. I mean this is incredibly difficult to respond to because it basically incorporates the entire left-leaning world view, which I know you can do a really good job arguing for. But man. It really seems to me like my own story of "people just aren't very smart and easily influenced to believe dumb shit" is simpler and explains the situation equally well.

Of course people are easily influenced to believe dumb ShiT. They are easily influenced in general. The average person is slightly more easily influenced to believe smart ShiT than dumb ShiT, which is why democracy works as long as there's a diverse range of different kinds of influencing going on.

If this were true, I would expect turnout to be much higher in primaries than in the general election, which is the opposite of what we see, and for it to be higher if the candidates in the general are reasonable, which I think is also the opposite of what we see. If the problem is that both Trump and Biden are bad choices, then -- from the PoV of a republican -- you should vote for Haley! The primary is on-going, this would be exactly the time where we should see high turnout. Haley seems to me like everything this hypothetical reasonable Republican who is just held down by the system would want.

Primaries are only intended for party members, and most people aren't party members. Different states have different ways of enforcing this and some states allow you to vote in a primary without having to disclose your party membership, but generally voting in one at least locks you out of voting in the other one.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6419 on: February 07, 2024, 10:38:05 am »

And as for psychologically appealing theories: I think it can be argued that a theory that soothes the own ego by reaffirming that you are so much smarter than everyone else has more appeal than one that posits that you need to take everyone seriously.

Agree this can be argued. I doubt it's actually true for almost anyone. I think I'm relatively individualistic and I find my macro view actively depressing

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6420 on: February 07, 2024, 10:42:52 am »

You could say that about literally any political position that some people find aesthetically
appealing.

You could, and I would do that in a lot of cases. If I wanted to guess what a random person thinks about a complicated topic where the world provides little to no feedback on how accurate their beliefs are, their aesthetic is the first variable I'd look at.

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6421 on: February 07, 2024, 10:45:23 am »

I bet the average American thinks Haley would be a better president than Trump. 90-93% of Americans don't vote in the Republican primaries, so that is simply an example of how the system isn't democratic enough to work properly. Also, Trump is a more established candidate, so he is inherently favored because that's just the bias that representative democracy inherently introduces to the system even when it's perfectly implemented.

I agree that the average American would think this. I don't think the average Republican would, and that seems to be the thing that matters. Like, I don't think it's inherently more democratic if non-Republicans vote for the candidate of their opposing team

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6422 on: February 07, 2024, 10:52:07 am »

It really seems to me like my own story of "people just aren't very smart and easily influenced to believe dumb shit" is simpler and explains the situation equally well.
It don't think this story explains anything. Who does the influencing? Are those people smart? Why are they smart and others not?

Your story has just like, zero explanatory power.

I don't think there is any simple story of how macro politics evolves. I also don't think that anyone meaningfully controls the big picture. E.g., no one in Germany caused or planned the war in Ukraine, no one controlled how people reacted to all the refugees; it just hit the country and then people reacted in the ways they reacted. It's just a big ugly mess.

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6423 on: February 07, 2024, 10:59:41 am »

Well, you can't credibly accuse me of holding beliefs just because they sound nice to my aesthetic sensibilities. I defend a lot of concepts that feel unpleasant to me, and I think I should have a pretty well established track record of doing that. For example, I think abortion is pretty disgusting, and I have put in active effort to make it easier for people to get abortions in Finland (by convincing my party to support a citizens' initiative, which I actually take full credit for because nobody else was doing it, so I went through our political program to find stuff to justify it with even though there's nothing there about abortion specifically and then I proposed the idea and posted my justifications and it ended up getting done).

Fwiw I suspect you far less of this than most people, I just a priori think that aesthetics are the main driver of political views. And the only way for me to say that I don't think they play any role for why 100% of other people in this conversation think democracy is awesome would be to lie.

I absolutely also have beliefs that suspiciously align with my aesthetic, and it's fair game to bring this up.

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Re: The Necro Wars
« Reply #6424 on: February 07, 2024, 11:03:28 am »

Why would you expect turn-out to be higher? Party primary are inside battles, that draw the few people who actually care. What kind of logic are you using to conclude more people care about primaries? I think Dominion is a great game, but i don't see this site flooded.

You said, " Since about half of US voters in any given election have no reasonable choices they just don't bother voting". This implies that people vote more if they have better choices. But people have better choices in the primaries, and they vote less.
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