Do you think they're mimes?
Well, my opinions about this are not very strong and somewhat difficult to explain, but I'll try anyway.
Assuming that the only information we have about their alignments is the setup post (i.e. just the mathematical probabilities — so this can be applied to any two players at this point):
- The odds that at least one of them is scum are ~58%
- The odds that they both are scum are ~9%
- The odds that they are from two different scum teams are ~6%
- The odds that they are scum from the same team are ~3% (~1.5% for any given team)
So it doesn't look incredibly likely that they both are mimes. I think that their interactions have made it somewhat more likely that they both are mimes, but I wouldn't say that I think that they're mimes. I think it's more likely that they are both mafia, but I still wouldn't say that I think they're both mafia.
In any case, their behavior has been weird for certain IMO. The possible explanations are:
1) They're both town and they happen to act weird in this game for whatever reason
I don't like the explanation that they're acting weird despite being town. However, I could accept the explanation that they're not really acting all that weird and I'm just thinking that it's weird even though it's not, given how likely it is purely from the mathematical point of view that they're both town.
2) One of them is acting weird because he's scum, the other one is acting weird despite being town
The above applies for this, but I like this explanation a lot more, because it involves me being 50% less mistaken about their weirdness and it's also mathematically the most likely scenario. If this is the situation, I think it's super hard to say which one of them is the scum, and if he's mafia or mime, since I think they are being approximately equally weird and there's an incentive to do this as both scum alignments. But I think that the one who started OMGUSing first (i.e. silverspawn) might be a
little bit more likely to be a mime, in case he is the scum, but OTOH a mime might also want to start a nonsense fight and a mafioso might OMGUS either because of the pressure, and/or because he thinks that purposefully avoiding OMGUSing would look worse.
3) Both of them are acting weird because they're scum from different teams
I also like this explanation. The odds are a lot smaller here, but they aren't negligibly small. The above about silverspawn being more likely to be a mime and faust being more likely to be a mafioso also applies here.
4) Both of them are acting weird because it's a staged fight
I hate how unlikely this is, because this is clearly the best explanation, since the other explanations involve at least one of them playing not as well as I'd expect from them. This is probably at least a decent play for both teams, since the mafia benefits from having the interactions, and the mimes benefit from managing to get the other mime lynched. I feel like this is very significantly more likely than the 3%, like maybe something like 10-20%. But even then it's not very likely.
Anyway, lynching one of them doesn't seem to be the worst play ever. If I had to choose from these 2, I'd lynch faust. I still wouldn't lynch him over XP.
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Topic: M66: Paris Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins) (Read 132408 times)