Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[scott_pilgrim]

Vote Count 1.2:

EFHW (1): Witherweaver
Witherweaver (1): faust
ashersky (2): XerxesPraelor, ashersky
Awaclus (2): pacovf, silverspawn

Not Voting (7): Hydrad, chairs, EFHW, Ichimaru Gin, Awaclus, ADK, sudgy

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 8:00 p.m. on January 29, 2015.

[Ichimaru Gin]

vote: color
Ya know silver, you could always just vote: random--there's a lot of people who liked that plan too iirc.

I can understand your opposition, but if everyone does want the color plan, I don't see how you continuing to oppose it helps town. I'm willing to follow whatever plan ends up being picked, but maybe that's just me being naive.

[chairs]

vote: sudgy

This is an Open setup RMM game.  Theory talk is, like, most of D1 in this situation.  Why do you want to not participate in helping figure out how to best maximize town win chance?  BECAUSE YOU ARE SCUM THAT IS WHY.

plan: roleblocker claims, XP gives 3+1 color list (not to be confused with OP color list; XP would be expected to randomize and not divulge full list.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Well, theory talk isn't over yet, I'll check in later...

I don't like all this theory talk either, but you could have at least voted for a plan.

[chairs]

wait, I realized color plan kind of sucks with roleblocker claim plan.

plan: roleblocker claims + RNGesus save our IC

[Ichimaru Gin]

Should have been a PPE on my last post.

To be fair, I don't have the best grasp of setup theory--especially for this special setup. So what I get out of all of this is mostly, player X thinks plan A is better and player Y disagrees and posits plan B. Meanwhile, I can't necessarily tell which plan seems better because both players have pretty convincing arguments--and are also factoring math equations in that I don't really understand. I have yet to take Stats...

PPE: chairs. So you are actually voting for the Random plan--but with addition of the Town RB claiming?

[Hydrad]

I present to you random strat!

I used numbers I came up with off the top of my head and a random dice roller to see how it worked. I only did this test once and havn't edited any numbers

day 1 I chose 20%. day 2 I chose 30% then 40% and 50% and 60%. Lets see how it works!
So if a die is lower then 20 they shoot for day one.

day 1 20% : 63 - 40 - 4 - 86 - 89 - 41. perfect only one yoshi goes tonight!

day 2 30% : 11 - 40 - 59 - 73 - 57. One yoshi again!

day 3 40% : 88 - 69 - 7 - 80. One yoshi again! (this is going super lucky)

day 4 50% : 65 - 13 - 70. Lol what another only one shot...

day 5 60% : 31 - 84. Oh man...

day 6 70% : 34.LOL I just perfectly protected the IC 6 days straight!

Ok one example might not be enough and since that was somehow perfect I'm going to do a second one.

day 1 20% : 66 - 9 - 31 - 98 - 20 - 14 Ouch 3 shots.

day 2 30% : 93 - 40 - 91. No one

day 3 40% : 66 - 40 - 34. 2 shots I guess? I'm going to say 40 counts

day 4 50% : 54. no one

day 5 60% : 1. Last yoshi!


So now if you look at the second option. Even though that one was much more unlucky I think it is still better then the color plan. Plus I'm not even sure if the percents I used are good or not.

The biggest part is scum has no idea if its safe or not to shoot. If we have the doctor always protecting XP when would you fire your strongman if you were scum. Would you try it on day 2 when we missed all the shots? No way thats such a huge risk and you have no idea if it will work or not. What about day 4 like in the color plan? Still seems really dangerous. If needed what we can say is on day 4 all 1 shot doctors use there power on this day if we need to but either way its not a sure win for scum like it is in the color plan. If I was scum on day 4 as long as our strongman wasn't under suspicion I would keep waiting till like day 5/6.

Hopefully this makes sense but this is my reason why I like random better.


Vote: Random

[Awaclus]

wait, I realized color plan kind of sucks with roleblocker claim plan.

plan: roleblocker claims + RNGesus save our IC

It doesn't suck with it.

The biggest part is scum has no idea if its safe or not to shoot.

Yes, just like the biggest part of the random rock/paper/scissors strategy is that your opponent has no idea if it's safe or not to throw scissors.

[Hydrad]

wait, I realized color plan kind of sucks with roleblocker claim plan.

plan: roleblocker claims + RNGesus save our IC

It doesn't suck with it.

The biggest part is scum has no idea if its safe or not to shoot.

Yes, just like the biggest part of the random rock/paper/scissors strategy is that your opponent has no idea if it's safe or not to throw scissors.

But the color plan feels like your playing rock/paper/scissors for a best of 5 thing. But then if you don't win by round 3 your just telling your opponent that round 4/5 your just going to do rock everytime.

Thats not a perfect analogy but I don't like a condition where scum just insta wins if they survive till day 4. And I'm betting some of the people supporting the color plan are scum because they are so happy that they can get a wincon like that. I know if I was scum i would be pushing that strat.

[silverspawn]

vote: color
Ya know silver, you could always just vote: random--there's a lot of people who liked that plan too iirc.

I can understand your opposition, but if everyone does want the color plan, I don't see how you continuing to oppose it helps town. I'm willing to follow whatever plan ends up being picked, but maybe that's just me being naive.

but if the entire scum team is on the color wagon - should you really support it?

[Ichimaru Gin]

vote: color
Ya know silver, you could always just vote: random--there's a lot of people who liked that plan too iirc.

I can understand your opposition, but if everyone does want the color plan, I don't see how you continuing to oppose it helps town. I'm willing to follow whatever plan ends up being picked, but maybe that's just me being naive.

but if the entire scum team is on the color wagon - should you really support it?

Eh. Maybe you're right. We do have the full doc to protect the IC each night--so even if the RNG is terrible and no Yoshi's target him one night--scum still won't get through unless they roleblock the full Doc (pretty low chance) or use their Strongman shot--which they could just as easily waste both of their shots with the WIFOM of the Random plan.

I don't know, it's a terrible feeling of scum knowing in advance that they are gonna win with the color plan if the order is right. Maybe RNG is better.

[Awaclus]

But the color plan feels like your playing rock/paper/scissors for a best of 5 thing. But then if you don't win by round 3 your just telling your opponent that round 4/5 your just going to do rock everytime.

If you were playing rock/paper/scissors and your opponent told you they're going to do rock on rounds 4 and 5, would you believe him?

[silverspawn]

But the color plan feels like your playing rock/paper/scissors for a best of 5 thing. But then if you don't win by round 3 your just telling your opponent that round 4/5 your just going to do rock everytime.

If you were playing rock/paper/scissors and your opponent told you they're going to do rock on rounds 4 and 5, would you believe him?

That depends on who the person is, the context of the moment when he said that, and the tone and gesture he used.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Also, we're talking about Rock/Paper/Scissors with a limited number of gestures for each side.

[chairs]

Should have been a PPE on my last post.

To be fair, I don't have the best grasp of setup theory--especially for this special setup. So what I get out of all of this is mostly, player X thinks plan A is better and player Y disagrees and posits plan B. Meanwhile, I can't necessarily tell which plan seems better because both players have pretty convincing arguments--and are also factoring math equations in that I don't really understand. I have yet to take Stats...

PPE: chairs. So you are actually voting for the Random plan--but with addition of the Town RB claiming?

Correct.  I think the town RB claim gives us interesting scenarios:

1) RB claims, scum claims, we mislynch? Next Day we lynch scum.

2) RB claims, we have a virtual IC, watcher can choose to watch IC or RB - since doctors are all doc'ing mario (as they should) I would advise watcher to watch RB - now watcher is basically a bodyguard on a second IC, because scum has to sacrifice at least their goon to take out the RB and watcher can claim to get that scum lynched.  If scum chooses not to shoot RB, then we're getting "as-good-as-a-doc" effectiveness from the watcher with the added bonus of a (virtual) IC surviving the night.

Does that make sense? I've been thinking through this and I want to make sure I'm communicating effectively.

[Hydrad]

Oh I didn't think of the fact that if scum kills RB we can lynch him next day.

[chairs]

Oh I didn't think of the fact that if scum kills RB we can lynch him next day.

Mind you, this practically guarantees the watcher dies afterwards, but we're still trading 1 potentially-negative-utility PR (RB) and 1 good-but-not-as-good-as-people-think...I-think PR (Watcher) for a scum lynch.

[ashersky]

I think scum uses the Goon to kill the RB, so they get to trade the Goon for both the RB and the Watcher.

That's a good deal for scum.

[chairs]

I think scum uses the Goon to kill the RB, so they get to trade the Goon for both the RB and the Watcher.

That's a good deal for scum.

What if we don't have the watcher claim afterwards and instead we try to let them connect the dots with the goon to their partners?

[ashersky]

So I've thought about it more.

Here's what really irks me about the random dice plan: we have no way of knowing if the IC is protected on any given night.

I understand that some of you are holding that up as the great thing about it -- that is, if town doesn't know, neither does scum.  But, well, it negates the use of the Watcher 100%.  It leaves open the IC for possibly dying any night of the game.

I understand the risks in the current version of the color plan.  If the random assignment of colors includes three scum, game over.

What's nice is, well, let's do this:

green/red/blue on N1.  Blue is town, green/red don't exist (so is therefore scum).

So, scum knows there will be exactly two layers of protection on the IC.  They also know that in the next two sets of three, no matter what, the IC is protected by two or more.  So, they know for three nights, they can't kill the IC.

That's the big issue, right?  This also happens if there's only one scum on the first night.  If there are no scum on the first night, the possibility of the IC dying is higher.

Thing is, we catch scum with this plan, and we FORCE THEM TO USE SHOTS.

And here's how: if the watcher is watching the IC, he expects to see exactly 5 people.  Himself, the Doctor, and 3 1-shot doctors.

If scum is one or two of those 1-shots, they need to either target the IC or not.

If they don't target the IC: the watcher sees less than 5 targeters.
If they do target the IC: they have to use an action!  So, that's the factional kill...and?  Roleblocker.  If the Goon and the Strongman are stuck in the same group?  One CANNOT target the IC.

Once we have that, we can full claim the yoshi colors and catch scum.

[ashersky]

TLDR: by forcing scum to target the IC via the color plan, we force them to use targeting actions (kill and roleblocker).  It uses up the blocking shot and it traps the strongman/goon into killing.

The watcher can possibly catch them via not enough targeters on a given night.

[Witherweaver]

TLDR: by forcing scum to target the IC via the color plan, we force them to use targeting actions (kill and roleblocker).  It uses up the blocking shot and it traps the strongman/goon into killing.

The watcher can possibly catch them via not enough targeters on a given night.

Well "catch" means lot into group of three where one scum must exist, or something like that.  But yes, I think this is an advantage of the plan.

[Hydrad]

While I agree that we can potentially catch scum with color plan. two worries is  if scum has one person in each color suddenly we get 0 info.

Other worry is if we find scum they will just make sure the strongman hides and let the other people die.

[Hydrad]

plus with color plan. If we lynch a late color and 2 scum is in the day 3 pool suddenly we lose.

[chairs]

plus with color plan. If we lynch a late color and 2 scum is in the day 3 pool suddenly we lose.

This is a concern I have, but I do understand the perks of giving the watcher an expected value of people visiting the IC.