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[faust]

If the watcher can help us lynch scum, I think he claims.  The watcher can make that call.

For once, I agree. I don't think we should tell the Watcher what to do at all. He's town, he'll do the best thing for town (hopefully). RB claim is interesting, I think we should do it.

[Hydrad]

If the watcher can help us lynch scum, I think he claims.  The watcher can make that call.

For once, I agree. I don't think we should tell the Watcher what to do at all. He's town, he'll do the best thing for town (hopefully). RB claim is interesting, I think we should do it.

I'm ok with a RB claim if our watcher watches XP. That way if RB ever dies we know everyone targetting XP is not the strongman. There still could be one scum if the roleblocker uses his shot. But we arn't to worried about him at the moment.

[faust]

Proponents for the dice plan seem to be lacking in cohesion and actual plan.

What's the percentage you are asking folks to roll for?  Is it 2/10?  Is it 4/10?

I'm about to review these calculations soon, no worries.

[faust]

If the watcher can help us lynch scum, I think he claims.  The watcher can make that call.

For once, I agree. I don't think we should tell the Watcher what to do at all. He's town, he'll do the best thing for town (hopefully). RB claim is interesting, I think we should do it.

I'm ok with a RB claim if our watcher watches XP. That way if RB ever dies we know everyone targetting XP is not the strongman. There still could be one scum if the roleblocker uses his shot. But we arn't to worried about him at the moment.

I don't follow.

[Hydrad]

Also while I still think the random plan is better. I'm willing to go along with either as I'm hoping we can get some scum hunting done today at some point

[faust]

Also while I still think the random plan is better. I'm willing to go along with either as I'm hoping we can get some scum hunting done today at some point

Well, it's open RMM. Having a good plan is more important than good scumhunting.

[Hydrad]

If the watcher can help us lynch scum, I think he claims.  The watcher can make that call.

For once, I agree. I don't think we should tell the Watcher what to do at all. He's town, he'll do the best thing for town (hopefully). RB claim is interesting, I think we should do it.

I'm ok with a RB claim if our watcher watches XP. That way if RB ever dies we know everyone targetting XP is not the strongman. There still could be one scum if the roleblocker uses his shot. But we arn't to worried about him at the moment.

I don't follow.

If RB dies. watching is watching XP. he sees 5 people target. doctor himself and 3 yoshis. If RB dies those 3 yoshis are out of the lynch pool as there is no way for strongman to have targetted XP and for the RB to die.

It just narrows down the lynch pool to try and find the strongman faster

[faust]

If the watcher can help us lynch scum, I think he claims.  The watcher can make that call.

For once, I agree. I don't think we should tell the Watcher what to do at all. He's town, he'll do the best thing for town (hopefully). RB claim is interesting, I think we should do it.

I'm ok with a RB claim if our watcher watches XP. That way if RB ever dies we know everyone targetting XP is not the strongman. There still could be one scum if the roleblocker uses his shot. But we arn't to worried about him at the moment.

I don't follow.

If RB dies. watching is watching XP. he sees 5 people target. doctor himself and 3 yoshis. If RB dies those 3 yoshis are out of the lynch pool as there is no way for strongman to have targetted XP and for the RB to die.

It just narrows down the lynch pool to try and find the strongman faster

Okay, I see now. Of course, it's really unlikely that scum would do that.

[Hydrad]

Ya so I think what will happen is scum just targets XP every night so that the lynch pool is really big if we go with color plan.

[faust]

I mean, one more color plan concern. There only need to be mislynches D1 and D2. Now the Goon and the Roleblocker can play as scummy as they want and try to get themselves lynched, because if they do, the Strongman lives. Which means scumhunting can get really hard.

[faust]

Since ash has accused me of not having a cohesive plan, let me expand a bit.

The random Doc shot plan

I assume this game is balanced, which means that under "normal" circumstances (whatever that means), town has an expected winrate of 0.5.

Scum may attempt to kill the IC tonight for the win. If they do and succeed, they win. If they do and fail, I postulate that they will most likely lose (their winrate drops to W<0.1).

There are two scenarios for today's lynch: We either lynch a 1-shot Doc or we lynch scum.

A. We lynch a 1-shot Doc

Scum has the upper hand now. Say their winrate has increased to 0.55. To make sure they don't shoot the IC tonight, we want for that move to have a negative impact on their winrate. So their winrate should be less than 0.55. Let p be the probability that the IC is protected enough for the shot to not go through. Their winrate is

p*W + (1- p)*1 = 1 - p*(1-W) < 0.55

Thus p should be bigger than 0.45/(1-W), that is, bigger than 0.45/0.9=0.5. Say we want p=0.55 just to be safe. This is achieved, using pacovf's formula, by having each Doc shoot with a probability of 19%.

(1-p) = (1-x)^A + (2/8)*x*(1-x)^(A-1)*A

A is the number of living 1-shot Docs

B. We lynch a Mafia Goon

Good stuff. Scum has a more difficult time now, but not very much so. Say their winrate has dropped to 0.45. They will be more likely to try and shoot the IC now. The same calculations as above yield that p>0.61, so let's take p=0.65. Each Doc should protect with probability of 20%.

C. We lynch the Mafia Roleblocker

Great! This reduces scum's likelihood to successfully kill the IC significantly. Their winrate drops to 0.35. The second term in pacovf's formula, which accounts for the Roleblocker, becomes obsolete. We want p>0.72, again take p=0.75. Each Doc should protect with probability 21%.

D. We lynch the Mafia Strongman

We've probably already won. Scum's winrate is somewhere down at 0.2, and that's a generous guess. The only way for scum to successfully kill the IC is to roleblock the Doc while no other 1-shot Doc targets the IC. We want p>0.89 now, maybe p=0.92. Docs should protect with probability 16%

So here's the plan. Every 1-shot Doc rolls 1W100. Depending on today's flip:

If it is a 1-shot Doc: Target IC if result <20
If it is a Mafia Goon: Target IC if result <21
If it is a Mafia Roleblocker: Target IC if result <22
If it is a Mafia Strongman: Target IC if result <17

[faust]

And yes, numbers are somewhat made up. I hope to have made reasonable guesses though.

[ashersky]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

[ashersky]

To an early question, if the watcher says "less than 5!" Then yes, we need all the 1-shot docs to claim and then we quit the color plan and switch to a new one.

[Awaclus]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Watcher can watch the claimed roleblocker.

[ashersky]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Watcher can watch the claimed roleblocker.

What for?

[faust]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Not true. If we have a kill other than the IC, then everyone who targeted the IC is conf!town (barring edge cases). The color plan makes it less likely that we have a kill other than the IC. Thus, it's the color plan that really negates the Watcher's usefulness.

[ashersky]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Not true. If we have a kill other than the IC, then everyone who targeted the IC is conf!town (barring edge cases). The color plan makes it less likely that we have a kill other than the IC. Thus, it's the color plan that really negates the Watcher's usefulness.

You mean any edge case where any on killing scum targets the IC for that?

And why would they kill anyone else?  You've argued against color plan based on the "scum won't kill anyone ever" argument.

[faust]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Not true. If we have a kill other than the IC, then everyone who targeted the IC is conf!town (barring edge cases). The color plan makes it less likely that we have a kill other than the IC. Thus, it's the color plan that really negates the Watcher's usefulness.

You mean any edge case where any on killing scum targets the IC for that?

And why would they kill anyone else?  You've argued against color plan based on the "scum won't kill anyone ever" argument.

Scum won't kill anyone if they can rely on us following the color plan. Otherwise, I don't know. They may or may not kill others.

I don't know what you mean with that first sentence.

[Witherweaver]

2) As pointed out, best strategy for scum, if we use the color plan, is probably to not kill anyone (except Watcher/RB/full Doc probably if one of them claims). So they don't mind targeting the IC if it's their turn. What's more, even if some night, there are less players targeting Xerxes than there should be, what benefit do we have? We know scum is among the three Yoshis, BUT WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE YOSHIS ARE. We could do a mass Yoshi claim, but of course that directly conflicts with the color plan, cause once scum knows who's up, they can just roleblock and win.

We wouldn't have all Yoshi's claim, only the ones that have used their shot, right?

[pacovf]

I am glad Faust is being the voice of reason while I am out. Follow him, people.

The roleblocker should target XP every night. Makes a three way masonry with the watcher and the doctor. Watcher should decide when and if he wants to reveal himself.

Awaclus, your plan won't work, but of course I can't tell you why. However, only town comes up with something like that. Unvote I am 90% he is town.

[chairs]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Not true. If we have a kill other than the IC, then everyone who targeted the IC is conf!town (barring edge cases). The color plan makes it less likely that we have a kill other than the IC. Thus, it's the color plan that really negates the Watcher's usefulness.

You mean any edge case where any on killing scum targets the IC for that?

And why would they kill anyone else?  You've argued against color plan based on the "scum won't kill anyone ever" argument.

If scum kills off-IC, then we know anybody the watcher sees isn't the strongman.

[Witherweaver]

I am glad Faust is being the voice of reason while I am out. Follow him, people.

The roleblocker should target XP every night. Makes a three way masonry with the watcher and the doctor. Watcher should decide when and if he wants to reveal himself.

Awaclus, your plan won't work, but of course I can't tell you why. However, only town comes up with something like that. Unvote I am 90% he is town.

Not quite, Watcher and Doctor don't know each other, but yeah, this can be done as well.

[Witherweaver]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Not true. If we have a kill other than the IC, then everyone who targeted the IC is conf!town (barring edge cases). The color plan makes it less likely that we have a kill other than the IC. Thus, it's the color plan that really negates the Watcher's usefulness.

You mean any edge case where any on killing scum targets the IC for that?

And why would they kill anyone else?  You've argued against color plan based on the "scum won't kill anyone ever" argument.

If scum kills off-IC, then we know anybody the watcher sees isn't the strongman.

I'm not following this.

[chairs]

We are 100% negating the watcher's usefulness if we don't know how many players should be targeting the IC...

Not true. If we have a kill other than the IC, then everyone who targeted the IC is conf!town (barring edge cases). The color plan makes it less likely that we have a kill other than the IC. Thus, it's the color plan that really negates the Watcher's usefulness.

You mean any edge case where any on killing scum targets the IC for that?

And why would they kill anyone else?  You've argued against color plan based on the "scum won't kill anyone ever" argument.

If scum kills off-IC, then we know anybody the watcher sees isn't the strongman.

I'm not following this.

If scum kill somebody who isn't the IC, and the watcher is watching the IC, then the only way the watcher could see the strongman is if the strongman used their one-shot strongman to show up on the watchlist.

This means that anybody the watcher sees on a night where there is a kill, the strongman was not targetting the IC (or has expended their strongman; either is good for Town).