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Author Topic: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Town Wins!  (Read 116027 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #400 on: December 23, 2014, 11:59:21 pm »

I am drunk. And falling behind on this. Game I will try to make a coherent post tomorrow. I apologize. I still think that silverpsawn is scummy. I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him. I do not want to lynch ashersky. I would be okay lynching chairs. That is my position.
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ashersky

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #401 on: December 24, 2014, 12:15:57 am »

I am drunk. And falling behind on this. Game I will try to make a coherent post tomorrow. I apologize. I still think that silverpsawn is scummy. I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him. I do not want to lynch ashersky. I would be okay lynching chairs. That is my position.

This is amazing.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #402 on: December 24, 2014, 12:16:42 am »

I am drunk. And falling behind on this. Game I will try to make a coherent post tomorrow. I apologize. I still think that silverpsawn is scummy. I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him. I do not want to lynch ashersky. I would be okay lynching chairs. That is my position.

This is amazing.

What, the perfect grammar even though he's drunk?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #403 on: December 24, 2014, 12:20:00 am »

I am drunk. And falling behind on this. Game I will try to make a coherent post tomorrow. I apologize. I still think that silverpsawn is scummy. I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him. I do not want to lynch ashersky. I would be okay lynching chairs. That is my position.

This is amazing.

What, the perfect grammar even though he's drunk?

Not perfect grammar.  "And falling behind on this." is a fragment.  Even if you corrected it to the "And falling behind on this game." that was clearly intended.  Plus, "I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him" is a run-on sentence, and "Joseph" should be capitalized. 
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #404 on: December 24, 2014, 12:21:27 am »

I am drunk. And falling behind on this. Game I will try to make a coherent post tomorrow. I apologize. I still think that silverpsawn is scummy. I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him. I do not want to lynch ashersky. I would be okay lynching chairs. That is my position.

This is amazing.

What, the perfect grammar even though he's drunk?

Not perfect grammar.  "And falling behind on this." is a fragment.  Even if you corrected it to the "And falling behind on this game." that was clearly intended.  Plus, "I thought that joseph was towny but I will reread him" is a run-on sentence, and "Joseph" should be capitalized.

You know what we did to the Nazis in WWII, right? :p
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sudgy

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #405 on: December 24, 2014, 01:24:03 am »

No it's not. If you're town, you want to look town. If you're scum, you still want to look town. That's not a tell. There's no tell that 100% works. You're all just shooting in the dark. So please, if we have to lynch someone, let's lynch someone we all think is scum, and not just guess.

But town doesn't typically have to worry too much about looking town as scum does, because 1) they really are town so any arguments against them would be false anyway 2) even if they get lynched, it doesn't hurt town as much as lynching scum hurts scum. Is there any particular reason why you don't want to lynch Joseph?

I as town worry about what I say.  I stopped bringing attention to it because people always got mad at me for it :/  Anyway, I don't think it's an alignment tell, especially for newbies.


Now that I've caught up with everything, Vote: Joseph.  I had a townread on him, but the way he said his claim was extremely scummy.  I don't know why chairs was dropped and still don't see him too towny, but I like this better.

If we lynch Joseph:
     If he's scum: Yay!
     If he's town: UB inherits his role, and we get a cop result still (small chance of no UB, but Masons aren't claiming, so I don't think they're here).  Not the worst thing.


If we don't:
     If he's scum: He either claims a result tomorrow, or no
          If he claims:
               If we lynch him: Yay!
               If we don't: We might trust an incorrect result, and leave a scum running rampant.  Very bad.
          If he claims no result:
               If we lynch him: Yay!
               If we don't: We don't know anything, and leave a scum running rampant.  Bad.

     If he's town:
          If he is killed, we lose our cop shot.  Very very bad.
          If not: He either claims a result tomorrow, or no
               If he claims:
                    If we lynch him: We know his result is correct, and his lynch itself is a VT lynch.  It's still alright.
                    If we don't: We don't know anything.
               If he claims no result:
                    If we lynch him: VT lynch.
                    If we don't: We don't know anything.


In the end, I like lynching today better.  There are too many bad things that can happen if we don't lynch him.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

silverspawn

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #406 on: December 24, 2014, 02:22:23 am »

Okay, Joseph.

First post is a vote. This in character, because he had an insane amount of RVS votes in his last game

Second post is another vote.

Third post is an unvote

Some flavor talk. Sixth post is another vote.

Eigth post is another vote

So, actually this is looking much more similar to his last game than I thought it did. I don't really know how important this is, but everything that's similar to his first game is definitely a pro town argument.

However, he also explains his votes a lot, which is one of the best scum tells. Let's --- pause --- the reread here and see how much he did that in his other game.

Okay, he does it a lot. So, I'll conclude here that his RVS behavior is actually very similar.

Onward

Okay, nothing important happens for a while. In #171, he says the chairs lynch is quite good, and there is not currently a better option. That's okay, but it's weirdly phrased. We're really early in the game, so we wouldn't really go ahead with the lynch. He's just looking best right now

Reads List. It's, uh, pretty nooby. Basically just, everyone who is active and appears to be making sense has a town read, and everyone who doesn't has a scum read. That's a horrible metric for alignments, but it's not an unrealistic one to use for town!Joseph.

hey look, I'm being funny.

#198 wonders why people think he's scummy. He does that a lot.

Hey, this is interesting. #217 he says he is "unsure about everyone". For town!Joseph I can totally believe this. For scum!Joseph, this would have to be fabricated. I'm not sure if Joseph is the kind of player who does this. It's sort of a town slip? But of course I've never seen scum!Joseph, so dunno

Rhyming. A clear scum tell.

At 248, he is white knighting me. I've talked about that before.

Then there is the claiming talk. You know what happened.

Okay, so this actually makes me want to lynch him less. Not that this kind of reread is not that thorough though, because it ignores context/flow. It's more useful to analyze posting styles than behavior in terms of wagons and that stuff. For that, rereading everything is better. I might do that later.

For now, vote: Awagork. Scummy and lurking. I don't like a sudgy lynch that much anymore, because I really like his last post. I'm still not horribly opposed to a Joseph lynch though. ASH LOOK HOW I AM DEFENDING MY SCUM BUDDY BY FABRICATING AN OPINION SWITCH OMFG

Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #407 on: December 24, 2014, 02:24:10 am »

\Vote: Silverspawn for not voting anyone yet.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #408 on: December 24, 2014, 02:31:29 am »

\Vote: Silverspawn for not voting anyone yet.

You are in this game?

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #409 on: December 24, 2014, 02:34:15 am »

I hope so.  It's probably against the rules for me to post here otherwise.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #410 on: December 24, 2014, 03:04:56 am »

yeah I was wondering about that

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #411 on: December 24, 2014, 03:46:10 am »

\Vote: Silverspawn for not voting anyone yet.

Bold that.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #412 on: December 24, 2014, 05:09:35 am »

I apologise for my Maths being wrong last night, I knew it would be at some point, and I was pretty tired when I did it (was past 1am here).

Calling scum teams day one is silly but if I had to guess it right now my guess would be chairs/faust/Silverspawn, and I'm okay lynching all those people right now.

You're right, it's silly.

I think it's unlikely that ADK and Joseph have the same alignment.

faust, do you still believe this? Because then exactly one of me and ADK is scum, so we should also be looking at the possibility that ADK is scum.

IF you trust that I'm the 1-shot cop, then this logic suggests ADK is scum, so why not lynch him instead? I still think that people are ignoring the fact that we could lynch scum in D1, but instead they want to lynch me, despite the fact my power might not pass onto the UB effectively.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #413 on: December 24, 2014, 05:37:20 am »

So, all I need to do to get us a better lynch is convince people I'm town, then if faust's logic is correct, ADK is probably scum. In this case, I think lynching someone who is probably scum would be a good idea.

As I know I'm town, this suggests that ADK is scum, so Vote: ADK.

Although I'm still pretty sure there's a scum lurking around, maybe EgorK, he hasn't posted much and hasn't posted a V/LA.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #414 on: December 24, 2014, 05:54:43 am »

So, here goes:

I think I've played the same way as in M53, when everyone seemed to correctly think I was town. As silverspawn suggested, I started in the same style, with RVs, and then moved on to flavour topic, because it seemed like a fun way to start the game (I of course didn't know it was going to get messy!).

Then, when the information started, I justified my voting patterns, unlike some other people, especially many currently on my bandwagon, who have jumped on there without justification for their actions. I justified my ideas for thinking that chairs and faust were scummy at the time, although as the game progressed, I decided against either of these votes. I now thinking faust's way of pushing me is probably a good town move, although I don't fully agree with his conclusions of lynching me.

And then there's the reveal, which as I already mentioned seemed like a safe thing for me to do, since it seemed likely that without it I would be lynched anyway. After this, I've tried to use as much information and statistics, so people can make an informed decision for themselves about who to lynch. If everyone believes I'm the best lynch, then go ahead and lynch me, although I personally disagree.

Sure, I've made a couple of mistakes in this game (faust's role in my list, when at the time I thought he was scum, and some of my Maths has been off), but these have been genuine mistakes.

I think we need to stop looking at only me for scum options, and look for other wagons too. After all, faust thinks me and ADk are not the same alignment, which means he could very well be scum. And a lurky scum seems probably too, as there are quite a few lurky people (I know that some of them are V/LA though).

To conclude, I'm town, so we should explore scum options to lynch.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #415 on: December 24, 2014, 06:35:30 am »

To conclude, I'm town, so we should explore scum options to lynch.

And then lynch you if no other good options present themselves. I think that sounds like a pretty reasonable thing to do.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #416 on: December 24, 2014, 08:53:53 am »

I apologise for my Maths being wrong last night, I knew it would be at some point, and I was pretty tired when I did it (was past 1am here).

Calling scum teams day one is silly but if I had to guess it right now my guess would be chairs/faust/Silverspawn, and I'm okay lynching all those people right now.

You're right, it's silly.

I think it's unlikely that ADK and Joseph have the same alignment.

faust, do you still believe this? Because then exactly one of me and ADK is scum, so we should also be looking at the possibility that ADK is scum.

IF you trust that I'm the 1-shot cop, then this logic suggests ADK is scum, so why not lynch him instead? I still think that people are ignoring the fact that we could lynch scum in D1, but instead they want to lynch me, despite the fact my power might not pass onto the UB effectively.

I'm no longer attached to that theory. And I don't trust that you're a 1-shot Cop.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #417 on: December 24, 2014, 08:58:22 am »

To conclude, I'm town, so we should explore scum options to lynch.

And then lynch you if no other good options present themselves. I think that sounds like a pretty reasonable thing to do.

Hmm, it definitely wouldn't hurt to talk about other options... what are they though? I don't get a scum vibe from silver, don't want to lynch him. chairs reads somewhat townie to me. ADK I guess I could do... There are lurkier people like sudgy/WW/EgorK, but I don't feel too good about lynching one of them yet. Maaybe Egor, but really I think we might be able to catch him later if he's scum.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #418 on: December 24, 2014, 08:58:45 am »

So, all I need to do to get us a better lynch is convince people I'm town, then if faust's logic is correct, ADK is probably scum. In this case, I think lynching someone who is probably scum would be a good idea.

As I know I'm town, this suggests that ADK is scum, so Vote: ADK.

Although I'm still pretty sure there's a scum lurking around, maybe EgorK, he hasn't posted much and hasn't posted a V/LA.

Why do YOU think ADK is scum?
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #419 on: December 24, 2014, 09:27:52 am »

So, all I need to do to get us a better lynch is convince people I'm town, then if faust's logic is correct, ADK is probably scum. In this case, I think lynching someone who is probably scum would be a good idea.

As I know I'm town, this suggests that ADK is scum, so Vote: ADK.

Although I'm still pretty sure there's a scum lurking around, maybe EgorK, he hasn't posted much and hasn't posted a V/LA.

Why do YOU think ADK is scum?

Well, he's had pretty much the same opinions as me, and so if you think I'm scummy, then surely he should be considered scummy too. So ADK scummy, because he's the same as me, who is apparently scummy. I'm not personally very convinced by this argument, as it relies on me being scummy.

I admit there's not many good scum targets, most people who've posted lots feel towny right now.

I respect fauts for trying to get as much information out of me, seems like a towny thing to do.
chairs is confusing, I feel less scummy about him the more i read.
silverspawn is not scummy enough to lynch right now.
Ashersky seems townie
Lurkers seem scummy to me, would probably be the best option for an alternative wagon.
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ashersky

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #420 on: December 24, 2014, 09:52:03 am »

The problem with a lurker lynch is, if it's a mislynch, we leRn very little.

Granted, that's a reason scum likes to lurk.  And that makes lurkers a good lynch target.

It's a cycle.
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silverspawn

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #421 on: December 24, 2014, 10:20:20 am »

The problem with a lurker lynch is, if it's a mislynch, we leRn very little.

Granted, that's a reason scum likes to lurk.  And that makes lurkers a good lynch target.

It's a cycle.

And you can break out of that cycle by lynching lurkers until scum stops lurking.

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #422 on: December 24, 2014, 12:12:21 pm »

I haven't done a full reread yet but "we should lynch ADK because if you find me scummy then you should find him scummy because he has similar reads" is an astoundingly bad argument. If I vote joseph will I be hammering?
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #423 on: December 24, 2014, 12:13:40 pm »

Doesn't look like it, vote: Joseph
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #424 on: December 24, 2014, 12:15:56 pm »

I haven't done a full reread yet but "we should lynch ADK because if you find me scummy then you should find him scummy because he has similar reads" is an astoundingly bad argument. If I vote joseph will I be hammering?

I'm kind of clutching at straws here. I agree the argument is weak from my perspective, but other people who think I'm scum might also think you're scum too, because our votes, arguments & reads have been pretty similar.

Although I realised now it's super-terrible argument, so let's lynch a lurker.

Vote: EgorK

Also, Request: Vote Count.
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