Okay so here’s my reread of Hydrad. I started out thinking I just wanted to 100% convince myself he’s town, but I went through it assuming he’s scum just to see if the narrative fits, and man it just all fits together so nicely. So I really think he’s our last scum, but I want to reread Jimm and Teproc as well at some point (especially since we have basically no deadline).
Leaning Town on ashersky for his L-1 vote and sharing my views on Hydrad. I don't think that a Townie could accidentally derphammer - you should always read PPEs. Slight scum on Jimmmmm for awarding immediate towncred to Hydrad's defense.
I doubt ash was hoping for a derphammer, that's just... no. But putting Hydrad at L-1 just so he could point a finger at whoever jumped off the wagon first? Yeah I can see scum!ash doing that. As for Hydrad's defense, it's null for me and I can see that coming from newbie town or newbie scum but I still don't see a convincing argument for lynching a newbie today.
Early on D1 there was that big wagon on Hydrad. Above are Archetype’s and Andrew’s responses to it. Notably, Archetype gives Jimm scum points for giving Hydrad town points. This looks to me like Archetype is thinking “If Hydrad is lynched (and flips scum) this will look bad for Jimm, I can point it out now so someone else can bring it up later”. Andrew also says he’s null on Hydrad’s defense but uses his newbieness as an excuse not to lynch him. So I think both of those point toward scum Hydrad.
Also, the post comes off as much more confident on the scum read on Jimmm than on Hydrad, but you're voting for Hydrad. The Hydrad comments sound hedged.
Hmm interesting I thought I have been stating my votes pretty clearly and not hedging.
Anyways here are my reads right now
Scummy: Scott, arche, teproc
Towny: silver, Andrew
And Asher gets his own as I think he is more towny then scum but still super hard to read
Labels one scum as scummy and one as towny.
Can someone currently voting for Teproc summarize the case against him?
For me it's just because he jumped on my wagon at a time I felt like scum would. Overall though I don't really find what he's done scummy enough to be lynched i just wanted to have a vote somewhere so that we can get more reactions and hopefully find scum.
Before this, he seemed happy with a Teproc lynch, but then he starts backing off.
I really don't see ash being scum here. I feel like the wagon is sticking to long because scum is on it. If he was scum I think the wagon would have moved onto someone else.
Honestly I'm against a ash lynch today.
Not lynching anyone seems like a bad idea, anyway. that just means we'll go into a second night where there are less towns with no advantage
for those who dont want to lynch ash - what would you do?
My 3 lynches that I want to do is scott/teproc/robz right now. Also we have a few more days to think this over so no need to rush.
So whats your case on andrew? To me it seems out of nowhere but you feel like hes the scummiest.
This is probably noteworthy if it’s coming from scum!Hydrad.
About 80% of Hydrad’s posts during the second half of D1 are basically just him restating over and over how he thinks the ash lynch is bad. I think scum was in a pretty good position D1. If Hydrad is scum, that means all wagons were on town; otherwise, there were two wagons on town and one on scum by the end of the day.
Noteworthy stuff from D2:
Does Andrew act like this normally? I've only been in. Game with him once really and it was a bm game. He felt pretty confident it seemed that Asher was scum and has now jumped onto jimmm. Just feels weird to me
Ok so I still view silver as town personally I don't really see why jimmm is so scummy. All it is is because he's vla and hasn't posted much unless I missed something. And although I don't like how robz did the day 1 and think he was a big factor for the lynch I still feel like he's town and was trying to figure out what ash was.
With this in mind I'm going to Vote: teproc I still find him the scummiest. I will say though a big part of this is gut feeling and his positions on wagons. So it's not a strong case but I don't like any of the other people being voted right now
In addition to this being hedgy, I think this really looks like “I need to vote Teproc in order to be consistent”. To clarify what I mean by that, look back at D1 and how he pushes Teproc’s lynch; then near the beginning of D2 he continues to express suspicion on Teproc, Teproc questions him on it, and then he sort of backs down and says “maybe I got you confused with someone else” (something to that effect). But then he goes back to Teproc here without almost any explanation.
Ok I'm literally leaving in 5 minutes so I'm going to Vote: egork also. The biggest reason I'm doing it is so that their is another option that people feel like they can lynch as the teproc one doesn't look like it will go through at all.
Sorry if jumping on like this looks scummy but I don't want those 3 to die.
(“Those 3” is Robz, Jimm, and silverspawn.) I think what I’m noticing about Hydrad is that whenever a major lynch candidate comes up, he opposes it. Also, every time a lynch candidate comes up, the lynch candidate is town (up to this point in the game anyway). Either Hydrad has awesome reads, or he’s scum who is overly concerned about being on a town wagon.
(D3:)
FINAL VOTE COUNT:
Robz888 (6): scott_pilgrim, AndrewisFTTW, Witherweaver, EgorK, silverspawn, jimmmm
jimmmm (1): Archetype
silverspawn (3): teproc, Robz888, chairs
EgorK (1): Hydrad
Robz has been lynched! ADK will provide the flip when he gets back.
FINAL VOTE COUNT:
Teproc (4): chairs, Hydrad, Robz888
ashersky (5): Jimmmmm, AndrewisFTTW, scott_pilgrim, silverspawn, EgorK, Teproc, mail-mi
Jimmmmm (3): Archetype, Witherweaver, ashersky
With 13 alive, it took 7 to lynch.
Night One begins now, and ends in 48 hours (more or less). DEADLINE FOR NIGHT ACTIONS AND CONFIRMATIONS IS IN 24 HOURS. Please send me a PM or post in your QT.
Looking at the lynch wagons from the two previous days, there are some common denominators:
scott_pilgrim, AndrewisFTTW, EgorK, silverspawn, jimmmm
I'm fairly confident that there is at least one scum in the group.
Hmm interesting. I agree that there has to be at least one scum and possibly even 2 scums out of those 5. Now to find out who actually is the scum.
This is actually pretty funny, right after I made that comment. He approves of the wagon analysis that concludes scum is likely on the mislynches. It’s funny because he has been so careful to make sure he’s not on the mislynch wagons, of course he is going to tell us to look for scum there. Of course, he would like that as town too, so it’s possibly just survivalist. But I think he’s more likely to say something like this as scum.
If Hydrad is scum then there was exactly one scum on that lynch, so lynching from that lynch is much less likely to hit scum than lynching random; so no surprise Archetype approves of it, same goes I think for scum!Hydrad.
I almost feel like scum nokilled to try and bait us into killing the wrong person. And scum arch came up with the idea so that we would claim and get a myslynch. But then the roleblocker actually targeted him and is now in a weird situation.
This is just such a bizarre thing to suggest. I’m not sure if I’m understanding it right, but it sounds like he’s saying “Archetype is scum, but not because of this evidence that he’s scum, just by coincidence”. I think that’s like a mega scumslip?
Okay so let me pause for a minute and say so far Hydrad looks really scummy, especially in the context of an Arch/Andrew scum team. Up to this point I think it really looks like we’ve got the last scum. Earlier I was really sure Hydrad was town, and I think it’s because of these next few posts. Rereading him though I think I was biased and my town read on him was really without basis. Here’s what he says after Arch claims he targeted WW:
Uhhhh I did not target WW... Is this scum arche trying a huge gambit to live? I'm confused
Vote: arche
I'm super confused as I don't know why you would lie about that. Did you confuse me with someone else?
Ok the only way I can understand this situation is arche is scum and tried a gambit to get out of being caught by silver. I have reread my messages multiple times to make sure I haven't targeted WW.
So my initial reaction to this was, Hydrad must be town, because if he was scum he would have played along with Arch’s fake claim. But I think that’s not right, in fact I think he made the right call here as scum which is to counterclaim Arch and just make sure Arch goes down. By that point in the game, best case scenario there was a 50% chance we lynch Arch (other option would be silverspawn was lying and we lynch him), but in practice it was probably higher, like a lot higher. So at that point you might as well just join in the mob taking down Arch and not risk getting caught in a lie by the Tracker (which he knows is out there).
The other thing I will say about this is, he seems pretty confused. He doesn’t have a reaction of “Arch is lying, lynch him” so much as “Wait partner, why are you doing this?”
So since ganon died do we lose cop results now? I'm slightly confused on how it works.
This could be a scumslip (he knows Ganon is psychotrooper), but eh, it seems like it could just be confused town too. In fact he corrects it right afterwards, so I guess it’s null:
So since ganon died do we lose cop results now? I'm slightly confused on how it works.
If we have UB then yes
Ah that makes sense. I missed the part the hes only the cop enabler if we have a UB.
right. personally I feel like it might be in either chairs or s_p. leaning towards chairs? I think hes quieter in this game then a few other games I've played with him when hes been town.
Seems like a stretch…
I'm still baffled why I was not killed this night. Had they risked being tracked on just to kill someone more ICer? Or had they still that ninja shot left so it was safe play?
Or maybe it's someone who's been lurking and hasn't been following the game to well and forgot that you have a pr?
This is actually pretty creative if it’s coming from scum. I don’t think it’s a good argument regardless of whether Hydrad is town or scum, but could be planned by scum. Probably doesn’t mean anything though…
I could be wrong but I think we pretty much know every role thats out there? most of out PR's have died and I think the only thing we don't know is if there is a doctor or not in this setup.
Okay this sounds less sure than scum should be about where the PR’s are. Maybe he’s confused between what he knows because he’s scum and what he knows because people have claimed it though (considering that what he knows is, “only one PR left and it’s been claimed by EgorK”).
Also I'm really not going to lynch egork at all tonight. If egork is still alive after tonight I might think about lynching egork just for the reason that scum really shouldn't keep him alive. Other then that I think thats all I have to say right now
This could be scum fishing to see if other people like that possibility, so he knows whether to NK EgorK. But I think you just kill EgorK as scum anyway in that position, you can’t risk having the bad tracking results against you.
I think it actually might be Jimmm. Since hes been busy he might of forgotten that egork was a UB. It wasn't talked about as much as the other roles. I think it was a kinda 1 page thing and then didn't really get mentioned again. Its something that could easily be missed if you havn't had much time to read over the game.
This is sort of the same argument he made a couple pages back, but now he’s pinning it specifically on Jimm. I think he wanted that argument to work, that’s why he NK’d WW instead of EgorK, but no one really paid attention to it the first time he brought it up, so he’s bringing it up again. TBH I really don’t think it’s a good argument (and killing WW over EgorK just because of that I think is a bad play as scum, unless he still had his ninja shot in which case it didn’t matter), so I think he’s bringing it up so he can put blame on someone for it.
So there’s my reread of Hydrad. I spent way more time on that than I intended to. I was going to reread Teproc and Jimm as well and I probably will later since we basically have no deadline anyway. But I think we’ve got it, I feel pretty sure right now that Hydrad is the last scum.
Oh also I want to remind myself to look back at the D1 wagons later. Two of the four people alive today were put up to L-1 D1, and they both survived. But I’ll look at that later because I’ve spent like an hour already writing this post.
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Topic: M48: Legend of Zelda Mafia GAME OVER, SCUM WINS (Read 113278 times)