So here's that list that was a mess to make here because I can't copy things from elsewhere. Behold!
Mislynch (2v2v1):
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills nothing: 2v2v1, Neutral/Maquis favoured
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills town: 1v2v1, Maquis favoured
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills MQ: 2v1v1, Neutral
- MQ kills town, SK kills nothing: 1v2v1, Maquis favoured
- MQ kills town, SK kills town: 0v2v1, Maquis win
- MQ kills town, SK kills MQ: 1v1v1, SK win
MQ lynch (3v1v1):
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills nothing: 3v1v1, Town favoured
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills town: 2v1v1, Neutral
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills MQ: 3v0v1, Town (heavily) favoured
- MQ kills town, SK kills nothing: 2v1v1, Neutral
- MQ kills town, SK kills town: 1v1v1, SK win
- MQ kills town, SK kills MQ: 2v0v1, Town favoured
SK lynch (3v2v0):
- MQ kills town: 2v2, Maquis win
No Lynch (3v2v1):
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills nothing: 3v2v1, Current situation (ignoring this)
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills town: 2v2v1, Neutral/Maquis favoured
- MQ kills nothing/SK, SK kills MQ: 3v1v1, Town favoured
- MQ kills town, SK kills nothing: 2v2v1, Neutral/Maquis favoured
- MQ kills town, SK kills town: 1v2v1, Maquis favoured
- MQ kills town, SK kills MQ: 2v1v1, Neutral
What a mess. And this is without PRs! I don't think I have the courage to make a PR version of this... So, let's see what we can take from this:
- If we mislynch, SK aims for MQ (although he can miss) and MQ either do nothing or try to hope SK hits town. Overall, we'll probably reach 2v1v1, but if MQ NKs town loses, so it's a bit risky.
- If we lynch MQ, SK always has an incentive to NK town, thus MQ doesn't really want to NK here, So we'll almost always go to 2v1v1, which is what I fully expect will indeed happen.
- Note how we'll reach the same scenario with a MQ lynch and a Mislynch. This is actually something I've been underplaying, but it's truer than I thought. Obviously, MQ lynch is better overall (because SK can miss NKing MQ but if they miss NKing town we basically win) but this isn't really MyLo, to answer ash's earlier question.
- If we lynch SK, we need PRs to save us. I didn't put the "MQ kills nothing" event because they would never choose it, but it's possible. With the Didds claim, I don't think this will ever be the correct move, however we don't need to go all out and say no killing SK today, because even with the Dax claim, there's only 1/2 chance of MQ killing non-commuter if they're not commuter themselves, which aren't bad odds...if you don't consider that the chances commuter's town, which is 50%, so overall we have 25% chances of winning here. Just having done this math, it seems...bad, actually. I might remove Space from the lynch table for this reason. (Disclaimer: the probabilities above aren't accurate with everything we know about this game, I just don't think it matters much)
- If we no lynch, MQ always want to NK whereas SK only wants to NK MQ. So, we'll probably enter 2v2v1, or one of (1v2v1/2v1v1) if SK is feeling risky. This seems worse than the 2v1v1 scenario of lynching MQ.
- PRs only make scum have to pick "nothing" for their kill, which is bad if we would rather have, say, a kill. Obviously they're almost always good.
With the above scenarios and conclusions, I...er...conclude that NL is strictly worse than MQ lynch. All the neutral scenarios are some that highly depend on PRs and the mindgames scum want to play, which for obviously reasons won't say here, but they're situations that shouldn't benefit any party (and allow for town to win).
That is my reasoning behind lynching today. Any questions?