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[WestCoastDidds]

Vote Count 1.7:

mathdude (7): Dylan32, faust, Ashersky, Joth, EFHW, MiX, MCMC
MiX (5): gkrieg, WestCoastDidds, mathdude, SpaceAnenome, Robz888
Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to Exile.
Night 1 starts now and ends Saturday, February 27th at 3:12pm Forum Time.
Night actions are due in 36 hours.


THREAD LOCKED!

Vote Count 2.Final:

gkrieg (5): faust, WestCoastDidds, Joth, EFHW, MiX
faust (1): SpaceAnenome
Not Voting (3): Dylan32, Ashersky, gkrieg

With 9 alive, it took 5 to Exile.
Night 2 starts now and ends in 48 hours. That is Monday, March 8th at 6:30pm Forum Time.
Please submit any Night Actions within 36 hours.

Vote Count 3.Final:

faust (4): Ashersky, Dylan32, SpaceAnenome, WestCoastDidds
Ashersky (2): Joth, faust
WCD (1): EFHW
Not Voting (0):

With 7 alive, it took 4 to Exile.
Night 3 starts now and ends on Wednesday, March 17th at 5:50pm Forum Time. Please submit Night Actions within 36 hours.

Wagon analysis time.

If, as ash suggests, EFHW and I are scum together (i.e. both scum were off-wagon D3), then it must also be the case that all three scum were on-wagon day 1, something that previously people have seemed to think is highly unlikely.

-snipped-

If anyone has ideas for something more useful to do with wagon analysis, let me know.

So, one way that the traitor might try to signal the baddie is by playing follow the leader. 

EFHW follows Joths vote D1 and D2 (both off wagon D3)
Space follows WCD D1
Space follows Dylan D3
Joth follows Ash D1
Joth follows WCD D2
Dylan follows Ash D3
WCD follows Space D3

EFHW is the only person who followed someone more than once...

[WestCoastDidds]

Swowl, can you please prod Dylan for us?

[SpaceAnemone]

Sorry.. was all set to come back to this game tonight but then friends appeared in other bits of the internet and stole my attention away :-P

I think the wagon-gazing is lacking something if you're only looking at who's following whom on the EoD wagons, and also not considering votes that follow our only flipped actual scum.

For instance in D1:
#40 EFHW votes Robz, following mcmc.
#129 ash votes joth, following mcmc (with faust in between).
#134 joth follows EFHW onto Ash, but only for a  few posts.
Late D1: ash, joth and efhw all follow Dylan onto the mathdude wagon, with faust in between, and with a bit of vote-wavering by both ash and EFHW in the meantime.

Possibly that type of wagon-gazing lacks something overall anyway, because nothing feels like it's likely to be a strong enough signal to scum for the remaining non-traitor to hit the traitor on what may be their very first attempt, given that they pretty much had to take out MiX on N2, and Robz makes a lot of sense as a N1 target if they hadn't already worked it out.

Anyway, I'll pull more thoughts together tomorrow if I have time!

[EFHW]

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

Definitely.

[ashersky]

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

Posts like this make me feel like all your other posts (about me) are just bluster to rile up people against a perennially easy target for an exile.  Like, why mention any other player at this point when your other posts seem to suggest you feel most strongly that I am mafia?  You (helpfully and townfully) pointed out the importance of today's exile, so why not laser-focus on your top read?

[jotheonah]

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

Posts like this make me feel like all your other posts (about me) are just bluster to rile up people against a perennially easy target for an exile.  Like, why mention any other player at this point when your other posts seem to suggest you feel most strongly that I am mafia?  You (helpfully and townfully) pointed out the importance of today's exile, so why not laser-focus on your top read?

Because I’m always aware of the fact that I could be wrong, and the important thing to me is finding scum, not being right. Tunneling is bad.

[Swowl]

Vote Count 4.1:

Not Voting (6): WestCoastDidds, EFHW, SpaceAnenome, Joth, Ashersky, Dylan32

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Exile.
Day 4 ends Wednesday, March 24th at 5:50pm Forum Time.

*Dylan32 has been prodded.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

Posts like this make me feel like all your other posts (about me) are just bluster to rile up people against a perennially easy target for an exile.  Like, why mention any other player at this point when your other posts seem to suggest you feel most strongly that I am mafia?  You (helpfully and townfully) pointed out the importance of today's exile, so why not laser-focus on your top read?

That sounds super-close to what I was scumreading faust for d1, though, albeit transplanted to a later point in the game. Faust was a big supporter of the Mathdude wagon, but was also fishing for support for people to vote for MiX, and apparently that came from a townie place of him wanting to get rid of Mathdude, but also wanting to see a MiX wagon.

[EFHW]

I think we should be seriously considering Didds today. She has really skirted under the radar all game -- hasn't done anything especially scummy, nor anything especially towny.

Posts like this make me feel like all your other posts (about me) are just bluster to rile up people against a perennially easy target for an exile.  Like, why mention any other player at this point when your other posts seem to suggest you feel most strongly that I am mafia?  You (helpfully and townfully) pointed out the importance of today's exile, so why not laser-focus on your top read?

That sounds super-close to what I was scumreading faust for d1, though, albeit transplanted to a later point in the game. Faust was a big supporter of the Mathdude wagon, but was also fishing for support for people to vote for MiX, and apparently that came from a townie place of him wanting to get rid of Mathdude, but also wanting to see a MiX wagon.

There are still two scum to find. I don't see the issue with joth having two exile candidates in mind.

[EFHW]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Is he usually a strong town player? He's disruptive, self-votes, and doesn't catch scum any better than the rest of us. He makes the game interesting, but his strong moments are when he is scum.

I would like to hear joth's response to this.

[Dylan32]

Pretty sure I said I was VLA, but if I didn't, I'm still on vacation. Flight back is tomorrow morning so starting Sunday my availability should be normal. That said, I have some time to sit right now, so I'm going to start catching up right now.

[jotheonah]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Is he usually a strong town player? He's disruptive, self-votes, and doesn't catch scum any better than the rest of us. He makes the game interesting, but his strong moments are when he is scum.

I would like to hear joth's response to this.

I think of ash as a strong player. He's known for having these great plans and he knows everyone's metas. Maybe I'm wrong. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Maybe he's one of those players who is always playing to his meta-goals as well as his in-game goals, establishing a town meta that will serve him well when he flips scum or vice versa.

[Dylan32]

Ok, rather than wall post like I normally would, I'm just going to respond or add comments as I read in separate posts for ease of replying later.

I'm mad that I missed deadline. I would have fought against a faust exile, having just finished a reread. We need something for everyone to respond to. How about "who is the scummiest person on the faust wagon?"

This is a very easy thing to say with hindsight, and is a very enticing thing to say for scum who was lucky enough (or good enough) to be positioned off wagon on any misexile. Mild scum points for this first reaction.

[Dylan32]

So the only explanation I can think of for no kill is that mafia recruited the traitor.

This tells us:

A) Either mafia had so far failed to identify or misidentify the traitor, which could be useful to keep in mind during a reread, or they decided to recruit on purpose, which seems unlikely at this stage of the game since they’d be in a much stronger position today had they pulled off a nightkill.

B) The mafia didn’t recruit the traitor from the get-go.

This is MiLo, so I think if we do want to win we need to really step it up today. I’m going to try to squeeze in a real re-read this week.

Also, beware that mafia, who may have daychat, can quickhammer at L-2, so votes are dangerous RN.

I mean, forgetting to submit an action or no kill shenanigans are on the table, but I agree recruiting was probably the most likely cause, so we can mostly ignore those I think.

If scum did not choose daychat, a post like this would absolutely sound like coordinating with their partner, or if the traitor wasn't recruited either N0 or  then scum!joth would still need to coordinate with his partner even if daychat was chosen.

[Dylan32]

Also, beware that mafia, who may have daychat, can quickhammer at L-2, so votes are dangerous RN.

Note where joth signals his partner about the possibility of coordinating a quickhammer.

Oh, beat me to it.

[Dylan32]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Yesterday was one of the most abysmal days of mafia I've ever seen. No one had a clue who scum was and no one was really trying to correct that except maybe Space (part of the reason they continue to be a strong townread).

Also, go re-read the end of the day. Ash was pushing the faust case. Not very hard, but he was pushing for it and he voted for him. And now he comes in and says "omg lulz he was so obviously town". Well then why did you push the wagon so hard?

For the record, he was obviously town. I saw that and what did I do? Tried to prevent his exile and chose not to vote for him. For which Ash now says I'm scummy.

I think ash is scum playing lazily because he thinks he can because, other than MiX getting a good vig shot, town has been so consistently off-base.

We keep letting him off the hook, so he keeps getting bolder. And now he's decided to kick off the last day by pushing a wagon on someone who's basically been universally town-read all game, just to flex.

By the way,

I'm fairly certain I will only vote for those two or myself today.

Voting for yourself would be swell.

If I am E-1, I will absolutely, 100%.

is quite a thing to say at MyLo.

A lot of circumstantial evidence in this case, but the narrative makes sense for scum!ash.  I think I would normally not pay attention to a case like this, but joth has had better reads most of the game than I (or most of us) have had so far this game. Scum knows alignments though (sans traitor), so maybe this is scummier than towny.

[Dylan32]

No death means no kill or traitor shot, yes?

Yeah, it could mean scum are messing with us and doing something unexpected, which is definitely something I'd consider if I felt like I was in a good position as scum. Alternatively, it could be that the remaining scum(s) is/are so low-content they forgot to do a night action, which does happen very occasionally. If the latter is true then it's more likely that there's one than two, since I assume anyone with access to the scum QT could give night actions, so forgetting would be a thing more likely to happen if there's only one legal person.

Anyway, with all this it certainly feels more likely than previously that scum had a traitor in the mix, whereas previously I would have thought that any scumteam going for JOAT would already have thought that recruiting from the start was a good idea. If there were only two mafia to start with, targeting Robz directly on n1 in the hope of hitting mcmc's brother as a traitor seems like a decent play for the scumteam if they didn't have any other suspicions.

Other interesting realisation: scum who seriously thought mathdude was the traitor probably didn't want to vote there, because exiling him would have removed the chance to recruit him. I need to go back and check how much Didds seemed to buy into the line. And yes, before anyone else raises it, I was definitely very reluctant to exile mathdude, though I've already said plenty about how I thought that eod should have been allowed to play out and why. This would mean that either Didds is uniquely mcmc's first original partner (or I am, to her), or the original other partner was on-wagon for mathdude and confident about him not being the traitor, or on-wagon and not caring about the traitor/aiming for townpoints for helping exile an outed traitor. I feel like with those possibilities, I'm still not too sold on scum not having recruited their traitor.

To summarise, we either have a situation where:
A. Scum recruited N0, but then deliberately chose to no-kill (or forgot) last night; or
B. Scum didn't recruit N0, but did pile on the mathdude wagon, so presumably were okay exiling him in spite of all the speculation about him being traitor, and/or Didds was uniquely mcmc's partner.

Either way, something seems to have happened that I don't think of as the most likely way for things to go down, so it's worth re-examining everything.

PPE 10: Sorry, started noting things down at lunchtime and I guess the thread has moved on since!

This feels like town!space. Third paragraph makes an interesting point about Didds. Definitely need to reread their D1.

[Dylan32]

I will add that, while it's not super compelling to pre-suppose that scum never voted together, it's more compelling to imagine that they didn't vote together at every opportunity, which means that me and EFHW and ash and Dylan are highly unlikely pairs.

Are the unlikely pairs (joth + EFHW) and (ash and Dylan), or is it (joth + (EFHW or ash or Dylan)) or (EFHW and (joth or ash or Dylan)) or etc...?

[Dylan32]

Going to reread Didds now.

D1:
They have exactly one post, maybe a generous two, that seems like active scum hunting. The rest are a combination of friendly fluff and I would like to hear more from (insert name here).

Votes EFHW as "RVS-lite" then votes and stays on MiX.

Didn't really take a stance on mathdude at all. Posted after MiX said intent to push him to E-1 to say that since ash was already on wagon, it wasn't as dire of a vote as normal, kind of downplaying the risk of a quickhammer.

D2:
Reiterates scumread on EFHW, votes to back it up.

Has some posts that generally seem to come from town. Seems to be making more of an effort to process the game and find scum rather than just get along and seem active.

Joins the gkrieg wagon, says Ash would be their alternative vote.

Eventually backtracks and doesn't want to switch to ash thanks to faust saying not to exile either ash or MiX because the claims.

Stays on gkrieg until EoD, doesn't have a ton of game related posts that challenge the status quo from there out.

D3:
EFHW and faust are scummy.

Votes EFHW hoping that some pressure will actually build there today unlike previous days.

Starts pushing harder towards faust than they have any other case so far.

Votes faust

Moves vote to EFHW do to a post they thought was scummy.

Waits around to see what is happening with the faust wagon, says willing to hammer.

Floats the idea briefly of no exile post faust's claim.

Hammers after Space rejoins the faust wagon. NAI hammer because if they don't it doesn't go through most likely and after being present would have looked very scummy for not hammering.

[Dylan32]

There's not a lot there that's like scum red flag level, but it's also not the towniest game I've ever read. Follows faust through the gkrieg exile, then promptly scumreads faust for being wrong after seeing nothing wrong with the logic the previous day. This reads somewhat opportunistic and scummy to me.  I'm not eliminating them from my exile pool right now.

[WestCoastDidds]

Hi Dylan!

I forgot about the vaca. Sorry for prodding you.

I didn't and wouldn't have voted for mathdude on D1 because he is BRAND NEW to our forum and I am not about that kind of welcome.

I voted for gkrieg after faust encouraged me to look off wagon, and then I was mad at him for swaying me when the only scum read that I have had that I really believe in this whole freaking game is EFHW.  Because I was sore at him, I probably added more layers of truth-sensing to Space's case against him but Space has been my biggest townread this game. Joth is right...if they are scum they are fooling us all.

[Dylan32]

Hi Dylan!

I forgot about the vaca. Sorry for prodding you.

I didn't and wouldn't have voted for mathdude on D1 because he is BRAND NEW to our forum and I am not about that kind of welcome.

I voted for gkrieg after faust encouraged me to look off wagon, and then I was mad at him for swaying me when the only scum read that I have had that I really believe in this whole freaking game is EFHW.  Because I was sore at him, I probably added more layers of truth-sensing to Space's case against him but Space has been my biggest townread this game. Joth is right...if they are scum they are fooling us all.

It's all good.

So any reason you aren't voting for your single biggest scum read of the whole game if you're that confident in that read now?

[WestCoastDidds]

No one is voting right now. I've gotten a little gun shy of the quickhammer after some tough beats on Jimmm's site, and there was an admonition earlier from Joth (I think) not to vote yet. I especially didn't want to vote and have this thing be over and done with if I am wrong before you had even had a chance to check in.

I am also trying to be open and listen. EFHW has accused me of tunneling her, and that is entirely fair.

[EFHW]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Is he usually a strong town player? He's disruptive, self-votes, and doesn't catch scum any better than the rest of us. He makes the game interesting, but his strong moments are when he is scum.

I would like to hear joth's response to this.

I think of ash as a strong player. He's known for having these great plans and he knows everyone's metas. Maybe I'm wrong. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Maybe he's one of those players who is always playing to his meta-goals as well as his in-game goals, establishing a town meta that will serve him well when he flips scum or vice versa.

But the basis of your case against him is that he could be playing better.  I don't see that here. Do you really think he is scum?

[jotheonah]

The overarching case is that ash is usually a very strong town player. But this game he's been at best unhelpful and at worst actively harmful to town.

Is he usually a strong town player? He's disruptive, self-votes, and doesn't catch scum any better than the rest of us. He makes the game interesting, but his strong moments are when he is scum.

I would like to hear joth's response to this.

I think of ash as a strong player. He's known for having these great plans and he knows everyone's metas. Maybe I'm wrong. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Maybe he's one of those players who is always playing to his meta-goals as well as his in-game goals, establishing a town meta that will serve him well when he flips scum or vice versa.

But the basis of your case against him is that he could be playing better.  I don't see that here. Do you really think he is scum?

I really do, but also at this stage in the game I’m not ready to tunnel based on the fairly weak case I have. This is a moment to really dig in and try to find a solid case. I’m planning to embark on a reread today or tomorrow and either cement my ash case or supplant it.

With six players, each of us has a 2/5 chance of stumbling on scum by dumb luck at this point, so the question of “do you think he’s scum?” Is really just saying “are his chances of being scum better than 40%?” Or “are there three people you find townier than him?” And the answer to both those questions is yes. But I’d like to be on stronger ground than that before I drop a vote.