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[ashersky]

Please explain to me what you disagree with.

For the bold... more importantly I am dumb and it doesn't matter. If we lynch Mix today and he is skum then town has a GTD win so the UB thing doesn't matter at all.

And more obviously I was talking in terms of "if" not for sure. Assuredly if we lynch mix (or anyone that is not dylan/Raptor) skum is not going to kill dylan or raptor. So if a shot exists, it gives skum another shot at ridding UB prior to ridding the role. But you knew that.

Also also... Here is some math before you try to call me on weak skum slips or whatever:

We have 1 lynched skum
1 of Dylan and Raptor is skum
you are "100% on Mix being skum"

Explain how I slipped if those things are true.

Not sure how math comes into the discussion.

The slip would be you knowing which of the two is lying (between D and R).  Because assuredly whomever is the partner is aware.  That partner would be called "scum" in many circles, and accidentally posting information they know only because they are scum is often called a "slip" in these types of games.  Hence the term "scumslip" being used to describe a situation in which a player who is scum accidentally slips information into their post.

You have explained this away by calling yourself dumb, which we both know is untrue.  However, as I am 100% convinced that MiX is the partner of whichever claimant is lying, it's not material to the game (at this time).  If I am proven wrong, for example by a MiX flip, then I would want to come back to this conversation.  Since I assume I will be dead before that happens, I have pointed it out for others to use later, were that to come to pass.

As for what I disagree with, I don't think I am lying when I state my opinion that I am 100% sure MiX is scum.  If you read my posting as straight fact and not my opinion, that's on you.  As such, I disagree with the second statement that says there is a better chance of finding scum in the D/R pool today.  I guess I can change my post to say that I agree the best case scenario is that we lynch MiX today if you can change your statement to add a "because" after the ellipses and before "he is actually" in your statement.  I also disagree that one of R/D won't die 100%, as there are conceivable scenarios where scum shoot raptor to avoid the doc shot.

Does that help?

[ashersky]

Vote Count 3.2

XXraptorslayer96 (3): scolapasta, MiX, Dylan32
MiX (2): ashersky, MiX
Dylan32 (2): LaLight, Xxraptorslayer96

Not Voting (2): WestCoastDidds, DatSwan

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day Three ends at 8 pm forum time April 28th.

MiX self-voting seems odd.  I'm assuming that is yuma, who ha since moved.

[Swowl]

Please explain to me what you disagree with.

For the bold... more importantly I am dumb and it doesn't matter. If we lynch Mix today and he is skum then town has a GTD win so the UB thing doesn't matter at all.

And more obviously I was talking in terms of "if" not for sure. Assuredly if we lynch mix (or anyone that is not dylan/Raptor) skum is not going to kill dylan or raptor. So if a shot exists, it gives skum another shot at ridding UB prior to ridding the role. But you knew that.

Also also... Here is some math before you try to call me on weak skum slips or whatever:

We have 1 lynched skum
1 of Dylan and Raptor is skum
you are "100% on Mix being skum"

Explain how I slipped if those things are true.

Not sure how math comes into the discussion.

The slip would be you knowing which of the two is lying (between D and R).  Because assuredly whomever is the partner is aware.  That partner would be called "scum" in many circles, and accidentally posting information they know only because they are scum is often called a "slip" in these types of games.  Hence the term "scumslip" being used to describe a situation in which a player who is scum accidentally slips information into their post.

You have explained this away by calling yourself dumb, which we both know is untrue.  However, as I am 100% convinced that MiX is the partner of whichever claimant is lying, it's not material to the game (at this time).  If I am proven wrong, for example by a MiX flip, then I would want to come back to this conversation.  Since I assume I will be dead before that happens, I have pointed it out for others to use later, were that to come to pass.

As for what I disagree with, I don't think I am lying when I state my opinion that I am 100% sure MiX is scum.  If you read my posting as straight fact and not my opinion, that's on you.  As such, I disagree with the second statement that says there is a better chance of finding scum in the D/R pool today.  I guess I can change my post to say that I agree the best case scenario is that we lynch MiX today if you can change your statement to add a "because" after the ellipses and before "he is actually" in your statement.  I also disagree that one of R/D won't die 100%, as there are conceivable scenarios where scum shoot raptor to avoid the doc shot.

Does that help?

so similiar to mix you lied when you said it is 100% that mix will flip skum?

[Swowl]

the dumb thing was slang for me saying I did not think about how many players were left in the game - which I think I explained but whatever.

Also I am having trouble working out what you mean by this part ... "because" after the ellipses and before "he is actually"

not like I don't get what you are saying, I just can't find the verbiage.

[ashersky]

Please explain to me what you disagree with.

For the bold... more importantly I am dumb and it doesn't matter. If we lynch Mix today and he is skum then town has a GTD win so the UB thing doesn't matter at all.

And more obviously I was talking in terms of "if" not for sure. Assuredly if we lynch mix (or anyone that is not dylan/Raptor) skum is not going to kill dylan or raptor. So if a shot exists, it gives skum another shot at ridding UB prior to ridding the role. But you knew that.

Also also... Here is some math before you try to call me on weak skum slips or whatever:

We have 1 lynched skum
1 of Dylan and Raptor is skum
you are "100% on Mix being skum"

Explain how I slipped if those things are true.

Not sure how math comes into the discussion.

The slip would be you knowing which of the two is lying (between D and R).  Because assuredly whomever is the partner is aware.  That partner would be called "scum" in many circles, and accidentally posting information they know only because they are scum is often called a "slip" in these types of games.  Hence the term "scumslip" being used to describe a situation in which a player who is scum accidentally slips information into their post.

You have explained this away by calling yourself dumb, which we both know is untrue.  However, as I am 100% convinced that MiX is the partner of whichever claimant is lying, it's not material to the game (at this time).  If I am proven wrong, for example by a MiX flip, then I would want to come back to this conversation.  Since I assume I will be dead before that happens, I have pointed it out for others to use later, were that to come to pass.

As for what I disagree with, I don't think I am lying when I state my opinion that I am 100% sure MiX is scum.  If you read my posting as straight fact and not my opinion, that's on you.  As such, I disagree with the second statement that says there is a better chance of finding scum in the D/R pool today.  I guess I can change my post to say that I agree the best case scenario is that we lynch MiX today if you can change your statement to add a "because" after the ellipses and before "he is actually" in your statement.  I also disagree that one of R/D won't die 100%, as there are conceivable scenarios where scum shoot raptor to avoid the doc shot.

Does that help?

so similiar to mix you lied when you said it is 100% that mix will flip skum?

I think maybe we have different languages going here?

1) For you to say that I am lying, you must be saying that MiX will not flip scum.  If that is the case, you know he's town, which makes you scum.
2) There is a difference between lying and being wrong.  While I am firm in my belief that I am right, even if I were to be wrong, I would not be lying.  If a person is 100% convinced the Earth is flat, when they make the statement "the Earth is 100% flat," I would not say that person is lying, only that that person is wrong.
3) I accused MiX of lying and he CONFIRMED that he was lying, going so far as to say that everyone lies as town on D3.  I'm not sure why you are inserting yourself into that portion of my case.

I think you might be saying that I am wrong, but using the word lying.  Is that what is happening? 

[Swowl]

Saving space. But yes ash - that is what i was inferring.
I was just trying to make a point on the fact of 100% - as if you are Town, you cannot be 100% sure.
But at this point the whole thing has derailed a bit.

[Xxraptorslayer96]

Okay after doing some rereading and being impartial to myself.. honestly I would be voting me rn. So let me try and explain reasoning behind my actions.

End of D1, I just screwed up. I was just off on when end of day was. I hopped back on to find the tread closed. Its cool if you choose not to believe me but there was 5 others that could have hammered as well.

D2, Open and closed quickly, pushing through the Joseph lynch. I was not online at all during that day. Dylan conveniently shows up to claim cop results on his partner that is already good as dead.

Open D3, Mix pushes for mass-claim. I claim and piece together the fact that Dylan was lying. I felt comfortable claiming knowing there is a UB.     

I understand if you don't believe me, but I was just dealt a bad hand on this one.


I hypothesize that Dylan and Mix are scum. Dylan faked the results that could obviously come back positive, knowing that when Joseph flipped that he  would have to go heads up with any other PR. Effectively outing the PR as well as leaving Dylan with accurate results to fall on as proof. Mix explained the reasoning behind the mass claim in the post before my claim. Wouldn't town!Mix want to kinda keep the reasoning semi- secretive unless he was trying to instigate a heads up? Mix pushed the skum agenda to help try and IC Dylan. 

I am happy with my vote on Dylan but Mix is just as guilty at this point.

[MiX]

I hypothesize that Dylan and Mix are scum. Dylan faked the results that could obviously come back positive, knowing that when Joseph flipped that he  would have to go heads up with any other PR. Effectively outing the PR as well as leaving Dylan with accurate results to fall on as proof. Mix explained the reasoning behind the mass claim in the post before my claim. Wouldn't town!Mix want to kinda keep the reasoning semi- secretive unless he was trying to instigate a heads up? Mix pushed the skum agenda to help try and IC Dylan. 

I am happy with my vote on Dylan but Mix is just as guilty at this point.

No, I will never, ever wait for you to show up before giving clarifications to a newbie. Just look at your D2 to know why.

I will reread the whole ash argument and hopefully defend myself because apparently it's best to lynch a random than in the PR conflict.

[MiX]

1) As has by now been pointed out by others, MiX clearly lied about the possibilities regarding the setup.

The only lie I see, apart from not telling people my read on Dylan, is not saying that there could be 6T rolls. Where were the "other lies" pointed out? I can't see them.

You haven't even owned up to the setup lie, which is funny at this point.  I didn't even have to clarify it, as someone else caught it in the meantime.

Again, what setup lie, who caught it, quote it, if it's Swan then I probably missed it.

At this point, you sound like caught scum.

I don't need to list your lies -- the fact that you lied, and admit to that, is all that should matter.

Since you are "100%" correct on your scumread on me, of course I sound like scum to you. You wouldn't be able to look at my words any other way.

You definitely need to list my lies if you want to make a convincing case instead of just saying they exist.

When in the history of mafia do you tell the truth early D3? Of course I was baiting scum, why in the world would I say everything I think about the setup and the claims and my personal read on Dylan, etc etc.

It would be a better case if you listed them. I promise I won't argue against it, if that's what you're afraid of. I'll let it be there, unopposed.

These two lines...

So your argument is that everyone is lying?  Or that no one should tell the truth on D3?  What?  We share information that is useful to town.  We tell the truth to catch bad guys.  Like, the setup is a secret, so telling us what YOU think about the setup as town can only help us.  Scum already knows more about the setup from the first moment than we do, so what did you think you were hiding from them?  There's no town plan to catch scum on D3 after claims in a setup like this, no "baiting scum" to be done.  They most likely know everything.  That is just a flimsy cover for being caught with a scum plan.

The second line is more thinly veiled ATE.  It isn't based on anything other than gaining sympathy from other players.

My argument is that the parts which I omitted from my posts are towny to omit. I mean, whatever it is scum was planning, it's clearly worse than just playing out a normal day, so I'd like to think I helped in this.

The second line isn't "based" on anything, it's a request. You KNOW it will make me look better once you make it, because it's not grounded on anything, so suddenly it gains me sympathy.

even if he is skum, it gives skum more night ops to shoot at the UB.

I disagree with a lot of your post, but the bolded line is worth discussion.

Since you are making that point, you are inherently stating you believe raptor and not Dylan, btw.  Did you mean to do that?  If I am wrong about MiX, as you think could be possible (I'm not), that would be worthy of scumslip territory (except it's MiX, so you are safe).  Of course, me being wrong is helpful to scum and keeping MiX around to be my focus helps scum, which is what you seem to be suggesting we do by not lynching him.

Lynching me if I'm town is more helpful to scum than keeping me around for a later mislynch, and you know this. You're basically just shaming Swan for not wanting to lynch me, it doesn't follow logically from anything, you can reason that lynching me is pro-you, but it's not pro-town.

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote count 3.WCD

XXraptorslayer96 (3): scolapasta, MiX, Dylan32
MiX (1): ashersky
Dylan32 (3): LaLight, Xxraptorslayer96, yuma

Not Voting (2): WestCoastDidds, DatSwan

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day Three ends at 8 pm forum time April 28th.

[WestCoastDidds]

I’m intrigued with Ash’s argument and I appreciate all the work. I also appreciate both MiX and Ash making their arguments super clear in the exchange. I have a hard time following the setup stuff, but argument is a different story (I hitched my cart to DebatePro after all...)

I’m not quite ready to ready to see MiX go, so I’m going to vote for Dylan, but that will be L-1 and we have some hammer fans roaming about. Are we ready for that to happen now?

[scolapasta]

I’m intrigued with Ash’s argument and I appreciate all the work. I also appreciate both MiX and Ash making their arguments super clear in the exchange. I have a hard time following the setup stuff, but argument is a different story (I hitched my cart to DebatePro after all...)

I’m not quite ready to ready to see MiX go, so I’m going to vote for Dylan, but that will be L-1 and we have some hammer fans roaming about. Are we ready for that to happen now?

Why Dylan over Raptor? I'll explain shortly one reason I think it should be Raptor over Dylan.

[scolapasta]

Had to go back and find the right quote from DatSwan:

OK more importantly. There are 4 options here:

1) Lynch Dylan, they are Town: Skum kills at night. We lynch Raptor tomorrow. Down 2 town, 1 Skum. UB gets nothing.

2) Lynch Dylan, they are Skum: Skum *probably* kills Raptor at night. Down 1 Town, 1 Skum. UB gets Doc Shot or Raptor is alive the next day. (yes, I am coaching. If that happens - Raptor 100% should NOT shoot at night. It gives us a GTD. Even if they shoot off of him and hit UB Raptor is then alive).

3) Lynch Raptor, they are Town: Skum kills at night. We lynch Dylan. Down 2 town, 1 Skum. UB gets 1 shot Doc.

4) Lynch Raptor, they are Skum: Skum kills Dylan at night. Down 1 Town, 1 Skum. UB gets nothing.


So from a mathematical approach...
- #1 and #3 share the same outcome, except that by lynching Raptor (#3) we get the shot to UB.
- #2 and #4 share the same outcome, except that by lynching Dylan (#2) UB gets a shot if Raptor doesn't use it.

#1 we lynch town and UB gets nadda
#2 we lynch skum and UB gets doc shot
#3 we lynch town and UB gets doc shot
#4 we lynch skum and UB gets nadda

Another way of saying that is:
1: bad-bad
2: good-good
3: bad-good
4: good-bad

It seems to me that in the situation we're in we'd prefer to guarantee one good thing rather than risk having two bad things just to possibly get two good things.

i.e. 3 and 4 are significantly better than 1; 2 is not as significantly better than 3 or 4.

This is all assuming 50-50, of course. I think it's more likely Raptor than Dylan, but if you're on the fence, seems like Raptor is the better choice for today.

[MiX]

I don't think it's right to hedge in a game like this. Of course that if raptor's town we have an advantage, so regardless of who we lynch today, if raptor's town then we're better off than the alternative scenario (lynching the other person and Dylan being scum). I also think overall that raptor has been playing much scummier than Dylan.

I can also present an argument for why Dylan wouldn't claim PR if he was scum. He claimed first, at D2. At that point, scum has no idea who the other PR is, or if they exist. They don't know who they are going to counterclaim, they don't know if they end up shooting a PR and out themselves, and most importantly they don't know how favored they are against the town PR in terms of townyness. Imagine if Dylan had counterclaimed Swan, or me, or insert townier person than raptor here: do you think it would be a good 1v1? Dylan had some towncred, but it's not enough to carry him through a 1v1, and if he does end up winning it, it's at the cost of towncred that could've made him win LyLo.

Overall, the doubleclaim business doesn't make sense if Dylan is scum, and therefore it was Raptor's plan to do this. Thus Raptor is scum. It doesn't make much sense for Raptor either, but there's no risk: at worst you're lynched, and you're on a quick track to end up there anyway.

[Swowl]

So MiX - I actually think I agree with you here on the part about "makes no sense that Dylan claimed first". Which was a larger reason of what made me look into things. Oh yeah, there was one other thing too

[Swowl]

Raptor - Why did you not use your shot on the claimed cop Night 1?

[Xxraptorslayer96]

Raptor - Why did you not use your shot on the claimed cop Night 1?

Just seemed more valuable to hold on to at the time. I didn't know what else was out there, I had the mindset that with the UB it would hold value end game.

[Dylan32]

Raptor - Why did you not use your shot on the claimed cop Night 1?

Just seemed more valuable to hold on to at the time. I didn't know what else was out there, I had the mindset that with the UB it would hold value end game.

I fail to see what would be more valuable than protecting a claimed cop. Even in this answer, where you had the chance to say you didn't believe the cop claim, which was probably your best answer, you didn't. The only reason to not protect a cop is if you don't believe the cop is telling the truth or if you know there's another protective role that is going to target them.  "I didn't know what else was out there" even implies you believed shraeye was a cop and just thought there might be a better target later. You know who believed shraeye's claim and wouldn't protect them? Scum.

[Swowl]

ash - may I know if your auto hammer button is flipped on or off please?

[ashersky]

Raptor - Why did you not use your shot on the claimed cop Night 1?

Just seemed more valuable to hold on to at the time. I didn't know what else was out there, I had the mindset that with the UB it would hold value end game.

I fail to see what would be more valuable than protecting a claimed cop. Even in this answer, where you had the chance to say you didn't believe the cop claim, which was probably your best answer, you didn't. The only reason to not protect a cop is if you don't believe the cop is telling the truth or if you know there's another protective role that is going to target them.  "I didn't know what else was out there" even implies you believed shraeye was a cop and just thought there might be a better target later. You know who believed shraeye's claim and wouldn't protect them? Scum.

I think this post is very indicative of Dylan not having a town power role in this game.

[ashersky]

ash - may I know if your auto hammer button is flipped on or off please?

There is no off position.

[Dylan32]

Raptor - Why did you not use your shot on the claimed cop Night 1?

Just seemed more valuable to hold on to at the time. I didn't know what else was out there, I had the mindset that with the UB it would hold value end game.

I fail to see what would be more valuable than protecting a claimed cop. Even in this answer, where you had the chance to say you didn't believe the cop claim, which was probably your best answer, you didn't. The only reason to not protect a cop is if you don't believe the cop is telling the truth or if you know there's another protective role that is going to target them.  "I didn't know what else was out there" even implies you believed shraeye was a cop and just thought there might be a better target later. You know who believed shraeye's claim and wouldn't protect them? Scum.

I think this post is very indicative of Dylan not having a town power role in this game.

If you think I'm wrong in my analysis, it would be very indicative of I don't know how to play a power role in general.  Feels like every time I have a power role I end up in a 1v1 or catching shade because of how I claim or how I play it, so I guess I just have no idea what I'm doing and should just pray I draw VT every game.  Go ahead and lynch me first, I don't care and it would at least get you off the whole MiX and I are partners junk.  Maybe MiX is partners with raptor, but it feels like no matter what I say, you're set on it being me, which is ridiculous given how literally everything raptor has done has been anti-town and there are other people who had actively pushed us away from lynching scum!Joseph both on D1 and D2 prior to my claim.

[Dylan32]

My point in that post is that the reason he gave for not using the shot is scummy, because the only good reason I can think of for town to not use the shot is far from what he actually said. Therefore it's more likely that he's scum rather than telling the truth.

[ashersky]

1) As has by now been pointed out by others, MiX clearly lied about the possibilities regarding the setup.

The only lie I see, apart from not telling people my read on Dylan, is not saying that there could be 6T rolls. Where were the "other lies" pointed out? I can't see them.

Okay, I will break it down for you, although again, this has been pointed out by others.  Here is your post:

I'll be the dumb one and ask for the logic of mass claiming but will already say I am all for it cause it is fun. But have a feeling a bunch of people will be up in arms without the math or talking about it forever. Sooo.... VT

It's very simple. A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR. Since we have a 1-shot cop claim, that's all the PRs possible, which means any more non-UB claims are a counterclaim, and we definitely want those. That's all. We hide the UB because we only need them to claim a day before LyLo, where scum can't claim it safely. When UB claims and etc is complicated, but the massclaim of non-UB isn't.

I quoted this and voted you for the scumslip and lie.  A few points to make:

#1 - You have tried to cover up your lie by saying you omitted the 6T roll.  It's even in the post I am replying to now.  That is yet another misdirect, as we can see CLEARLY that you said "6 Ts" in your post.  So, where did you omit the 6T roll?  That's a compound lie -- a lie building on a lie to cover up the first lie.  Lies abound!

#2 - The original misdirect/lie in your quote, which led to my clear read on you, was when you said "we have a maximum of 1 PR."  You want this to be true because the game environment has been molded to appear that way.  (I will note, I believe this to be the true game state at this time, which is days later than this post.)  However, your statement is blatantly untrue, and I believe it to be blatantly untrue on purpose.

#2a - Why is MiX's line untrue?  MiX predicates his statement on the goon flip.  A goon flip means 5T or 6T, as he says.  So he uses a truth to lull the audience, then slides in a seemingly true statement that is actually a lie, reinforced by immediately hitting the next line to support it ("since we have a 1-shot cop claim").  Note the use and placement of the word "since" in this series.  Meaning-wise, it is used as a "because" for the info that follows (there are no other PRs possible BECAUSE we have a 1-shot cop claim), but its positioning means that readers may also meld it with the previous line -- the lie.  That is, "we have a maximum of 1 PR BECAUSE we have a 1-shot cop claim," which just feels like evidence, even though it isn't.  This is a common language trick used in poetry and other writing (rap lyrics do it all the time). 

#3 - As I've explained, scum planned a fakeclaim.  Scum knows the claim is fake.  The fake claim is for one PR, even though that is not the only possibility in the setup.  In this case, scum ignored all possibilities to push the only possibilities that work with their lie.  That is the scumslip. 

[MiX]

Raptor - Why did you not use your shot on the claimed cop Night 1?

Just seemed more valuable to hold on to at the time. I didn't know what else was out there, I had the mindset that with the UB it would hold value end game.

I fail to see what would be more valuable than protecting a claimed cop. Even in this answer, where you had the chance to say you didn't believe the cop claim, which was probably your best answer, you didn't. The only reason to not protect a cop is if you don't believe the cop is telling the truth or if you know there's another protective role that is going to target them.  "I didn't know what else was out there" even implies you believed shraeye was a cop and just thought there might be a better target later. You know who believed shraeye's claim and wouldn't protect them? Scum.

I think this post is very indicative of Dylan not having a town power role in this game.

I agree that Dylan is wrong here, but it says nothing about him being town or scum. I was waiting for raptor to answer dylan's inquiries before saying anything, but clearly that's a losing battle.

I fail to see what would be more valuable than protecting a claimed cop. Even in this answer, where you had the chance to say you didn't believe the cop claim, which was probably your best answer, you didn't. The only reason to not protect a cop is if you don't believe the cop is telling the truth or if you know there's another protective role that is going to target them.  "I didn't know what else was out there" even implies you believed shraeye was a cop and just thought there might be a better target later. You know who believed shraeye's claim and wouldn't protect them? Scum.

To Dylan: If you're a 1-shot doctor, chances are there's a Doctor. In which case, you should wait for them to protect shraeye, not you. Also, 1-shot doc's not something you want to use early, so saving it for the UB is a viable, if not correct, strategy for town!raptor here.

I can, however, think of another point: if there's a lot more PRs, holding onto the shot becomes less valuable, because presumably the UB will get something else. But it also makes the 1-shot doc better later in the game, so it's moot.

PPE: ash things, ash things, things ash, lies = scum. Or something. Look I don't know, apparently inconsistency = scum, except as scum I would actually go back and read my posts instead of saying what I think I wrote there. When I said "Dylan is town" (which I believe was in my first post) I think I was trying to omit the fact that he can be scum fakeclaiming and it's 6Ts. I'll give that post a proper response.