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[MiX]

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.

I'm curious why you think MiX + raptor is a possibility? Because that would mean MiX is driving an extremely hard bus on his only remaining partner.

That's exactly what I would do if I was his scumbuddy. Because I think I'm so right about raptor being the lynch, that I would completely tunnel on it being true as scum. It's not like anyone listens to me lol.

Okay, I'm around now.  Sorry I didn't make it back to a computer yesterday to expound.  I will share my thought process now.  But, in short:

Scum team has to be MiX + Dylan or MiX + raptor.

Mix dylan

And the prize for town tunneling is stolen by me and goes to whichever is town out of you two!

PPE 2: If your argument is that I planned to have a massclaim after Joseph flipped and I thought about it at night, yes, guilty is charged. There was no reason to mention 6T roll before the massclaim was done with, it was much better to pretend Dylan is an IC if no one CCs, that way we hopefully get scum to CC, which is much better.

I was most definitely inviting the counterclaim, and it worked, and it's pro-town, and it's what town!MiX does because it's what I did. Just because my plan worked doesn't mean I had to coordinate it with scum.

PPE: I physically cannot be any more convincing than I am being right now. It's really not up to me whether people believe me or not.

[ashersky]

As for lynching today -- MiX is the common denominator.  100% chance of there, while only 50/50 in the other two.

Plus, I think those two sort themselves out.  Literally we can just lynch in order if they both survive to tomorrow.  You have to think town!raptor dies now, and we still get the UB shot anyway, but if not, scum plays guess the unprotected townie so we have a slight chance of protection either way.  And if it's town!Dylan, well, we can still take care of business.

Finding the third scum is harder, except that I found him.  Let's confirm that, then just go through the motions for the win.

[ashersky]

PPE 2: If your argument is that I planned to have a massclaim after Joseph flipped and I thought about it at night, yes, guilty is charged. There was no reason to mention 6T roll before the massclaim was done with, it was much better to pretend Dylan is an IC if no one CCs, that way we hopefully get scum to CC, which is much better.

I was most definitely inviting the counterclaim, and it worked, and it's pro-town, and it's what town!MiX does because it's what I did. Just because my plan worked doesn't mean I had to coordinate it with scum.

PPE: I physically cannot be any more convincing than I am being right now. It's really not up to me whether people believe me or not.

It is also completely scum!MiX to ignore actual points and move toward ATE as soon as possible, I believe.

You haven't even owned up to the setup lie, which is funny at this point.  I didn't even have to clarify it, as someone else caught it in the meantime.

[MiX]

As for lynching today -- MiX is the common denominator.  100% chance of there, while only 50/50 in the other two.

Plus, I think those two sort themselves out.  Literally we can just lynch in order if they both survive to tomorrow.  You have to think town!raptor dies now, and we still get the UB shot anyway, but if not, scum plays guess the unprotected townie so we have a slight chance of protection either way.  And if it's town!Dylan, well, we can still take care of business.

Finding the third scum is harder, except that I found him.  Let's confirm that, then just go through the motions for the win.

I flip town, the whole game comes crashing down upon us. There's no way we lynch me today. If I'm caught scum, why wouldn't you just do the 50/50 anyway? You've already won, right?

Lynching anyone other than Dylan/Raptor is anti-town, and you know better than that.

PPE 2: If your argument is that I planned to have a massclaim after Joseph flipped and I thought about it at night, yes, guilty is charged. There was no reason to mention 6T roll before the massclaim was done with, it was much better to pretend Dylan is an IC if no one CCs, that way we hopefully get scum to CC, which is much better.

I was most definitely inviting the counterclaim, and it worked, and it's pro-town, and it's what town!MiX does because it's what I did. Just because my plan worked doesn't mean I had to coordinate it with scum.

PPE: I physically cannot be any more convincing than I am being right now. It's really not up to me whether people believe me or not.

It is also completely scum!MiX to ignore actual points and move toward ATE as soon as possible, I believe.

You haven't even owned up to the setup lie, which is funny at this point.  I didn't even have to clarify it, as someone else caught it in the meantime.

Which lie, the omission of 6T rolls?

[ashersky]

Oh, one thing I wanted to mention, although it isn't strong proof of anything:

My very first game was M10.  I was a PR in a ++ setup (or something like it).  Captain_Frisk claimed a PR which could not have existed due to mine, but I didn't catch it in time to counter that day.  So it is possible for a player to have a role which precludes another claim and not realize it.

[yuma]

I was the mod that game! First one! The death of Donald x

[ashersky]

As for lynching today -- MiX is the common denominator.  100% chance of there, while only 50/50 in the other two.

Plus, I think those two sort themselves out.  Literally we can just lynch in order if they both survive to tomorrow.  You have to think town!raptor dies now, and we still get the UB shot anyway, but if not, scum plays guess the unprotected townie so we have a slight chance of protection either way.  And if it's town!Dylan, well, we can still take care of business.

Finding the third scum is harder, except that I found him.  Let's confirm that, then just go through the motions for the win.

I flip town, the whole game comes crashing down upon us. There's no way we lynch me today. If I'm caught scum, why wouldn't you just do the 50/50 anyway? You've already won, right?

Lynching anyone other than Dylan/Raptor is anti-town, and you know better than that.

If you flip town (you won't), the game doesn't end in fire and chaos.  There are other players who can play, you know.  We don't revolve around you.  Also, 100% is better than 50% to me.  Also, I generally feel strongly that following scum's plan, even if you think you have figured it out, is not a good way to play the game.

PPE 2: If your argument is that I planned to have a massclaim after Joseph flipped and I thought about it at night, yes, guilty is charged. There was no reason to mention 6T roll before the massclaim was done with, it was much better to pretend Dylan is an IC if no one CCs, that way we hopefully get scum to CC, which is much better.

I was most definitely inviting the counterclaim, and it worked, and it's pro-town, and it's what town!MiX does because it's what I did. Just because my plan worked doesn't mean I had to coordinate it with scum.

PPE: I physically cannot be any more convincing than I am being right now. It's really not up to me whether people believe me or not.

It is also completely scum!MiX to ignore actual points and move toward ATE as soon as possible, I believe.

You haven't even owned up to the setup lie, which is funny at this point.  I didn't even have to clarify it, as someone else caught it in the meantime.

Which lie, the omission of 6T rolls?

No.  But thank you for admitting to lying.

vote: MiX again and forever.

[ashersky]

Also holy crap M126.  That's so many games!

[MiX]

If I flip town nothing will happen. There are no reads to be obtained with my flip. Unless you want heat on yourself and yuma, which you already have for simply voting me instead of the conflict. That's not pro-you, nor pro-town.

Just because you made a plan it doesn't mean it's better for town than scum's plan.

I'm done defending myself obviously nothing will change by me talking. I'm voting for scum, I suggest you all vote for scum.

For my amusement, can you make an organized list of every lie I said? Should also get people voting for me, that's what you want, right.

[ashersky]

Also, another point:

MiX's plan is pretty ingenious in that mislynching OR correct lynching between Dylan and raptor doesn't connect back to him.  His setup completely built a bubble  around the two -- it in fact discourages looking at anyone else, which is the key to winning for scum at this point.  The second member is lost either way.  They are working together to actively protect the third.

If you want to choose which one is MiX's partner, look at who's actively trying to help.

[yuma]

Dylan!

[ashersky]

If I flip town nothing will happen. There are no reads to be obtained with my flip. Unless you want heat on yourself and yuma, which you already have for simply voting me instead of the conflict. That's not pro-you, nor pro-town.

Just because you made a plan it doesn't mean it's better for town than scum's plan.

I'm done defending myself obviously nothing will change by me talking. I'm voting for scum, I suggest you all vote for scum.

For my amusement, can you make an organized list of every lie I said? Should also get people voting for me, that's what you want, right.

At this point, you sound like caught scum.

I don't need to list your lies -- the fact that you lied, and admit to that, is all that should matter.

[MiX]

If I flip town nothing will happen. There are no reads to be obtained with my flip. Unless you want heat on yourself and yuma, which you already have for simply voting me instead of the conflict. That's not pro-you, nor pro-town.

Just because you made a plan it doesn't mean it's better for town than scum's plan.

I'm done defending myself obviously nothing will change by me talking. I'm voting for scum, I suggest you all vote for scum.

For my amusement, can you make an organized list of every lie I said? Should also get people voting for me, that's what you want, right.

At this point, you sound like caught scum.

I don't need to list your lies -- the fact that you lied, and admit to that, is all that should matter.

When in the history of mafia do you tell the truth early D3? Of course I was baiting scum, why in the world would I say everything I think about the setup and the claims and my personal read on Dylan, etc etc.

It would be a better case if you listed them. I promise I won't argue against it, if that's what you're afraid of. I'll let it be there, unopposed.

If you think this is caught scum, then think again. This is town that is being tunneled for tunneling, and once Raptor flips scum you'll see I was right and you are wrong. But before that I don't have the willpower to fight you and yuma.

[ashersky]

When in the history of mafia do you tell the truth early D3? Of course I was baiting scum, why in the world would I say everything I think about the setup and the claims and my personal read on Dylan, etc etc.

It would be a better case if you listed them. I promise I won't argue against it, if that's what you're afraid of. I'll let it be there, unopposed.

These two lines...

So your argument is that everyone is lying?  Or that no one should tell the truth on D3?  What?  We share information that is useful to town.  We tell the truth to catch bad guys.  Like, the setup is a secret, so telling us what YOU think about the setup as town can only help us.  Scum already knows more about the setup from the first moment than we do, so what did you think you were hiding from them?  There's no town plan to catch scum on D3 after claims in a setup like this, no "baiting scum" to be done.  They most likely know everything.  That is just a flimsy cover for being caught with a scum plan.

The second line is more thinly veiled ATE.  It isn't based on anything other than gaining sympathy from other players.

[MiX]

When in the history of mafia do you tell the truth early D3? Of course I was baiting scum, why in the world would I say everything I think about the setup and the claims and my personal read on Dylan, etc etc.

It would be a better case if you listed them. I promise I won't argue against it, if that's what you're afraid of. I'll let it be there, unopposed.

These two lines...

So your argument is that everyone is lying?  Or that no one should tell the truth on D3?  What?  We share information that is useful to town.  We tell the truth to catch bad guys.  Like, the setup is a secret, so telling us what YOU think about the setup as town can only help us.  Scum already knows more about the setup from the first moment than we do, so what did you think you were hiding from them?  There's no town plan to catch scum on D3 after claims in a setup like this, no "baiting scum" to be done.  They most likely know everything.  That is just a flimsy cover for being caught with a scum plan.

The second line is more thinly veiled ATE.  It isn't based on anything other than gaining sympathy from other players.

I'm using ATE because I have no idea how to say I'm town. I'm town! There.

It's also very late and I can't objectively process your arguments. Okay let's assume I lied. So what...why do I need to explain why a massclaim is good, EXACTLY why it's good, and also explain how the setup works, just to be in favour of a massclaim publically.

Something something I should be better than this when I wake up.

This probably counts as a DAMA but I'm off now so no time for fun questioning.

[Dylan32]

Also, another point:

MiX's plan is pretty ingenious in that mislynching OR correct lynching between Dylan and raptor doesn't connect back to him.  His setup completely built a bubble  around the two -- it in fact discourages looking at anyone else, which is the key to winning for scum at this point.  The second member is lost either way.  They are working together to actively protect the third.

If you want to choose which one is MiX's partner, look at who's actively trying to help.

You're last line is purely confirmation bias, because one has been largely inactive most of the game, and the other has been scumhunting the whole game, so looking at activity level to support your theory is only going to reveal whatever you set out to look for. Some of your points on MiX at least make some sense, but that last part definitely doesn't follow.  Like maybe the 2nd helping protect the 3rd looks like the 2nd letting the 3rd bus him until he flips scum so the 3rd gets that towncred. So that doesn't establish a link between either of us specifically and MiX like you think it does.

[Dylan32]

Your*... ugh...

[Dylan32]

Reading yuma from EoD1 through D2.

vote: joseph

L-2 vote. A good spot to bus.

4 posts in a row:

Intent to hammer

ok

ok

I was giving it 15/20 min to see if Joseph was around to claim or say something

would it matter at this point?

D2
Read from the start of the day at #335 to #349, and literally every part of every interaction in those 15 posts absolutely screams scum team Joseph, raptor, and yuma. I didn't even remember this interaction until I just read it, but I'm sure of it and probably won't vote anywhere else.

Joseph doesn't seem likely to be scum. We are using him to figure out Raptor? Raptor is clearly town.

This is a false road to go down.

I want to hold off on talking until Raptor gets here, but I think we are making false assumptions based off false assumptions here. So maybe wait for the players that don't log on quite as much?

If I were mafia the lynches I would be pushing for and supporting would be joseph and raptor. They are the lynches that have the least resistant. They could still be scum if they are, but that is dice rolling, not evidence based. I won't be voting for either today.

D3

Cool. I know I didn't contribute at all, but cool. I am glad Dylan had the result he did cause I probably would have fought all day against the Raptor lynch and probably the Joseph lynch by association. I dont know if I would have been successful in that, but possibly. So good job to Dylan there.

I think actual wagon analysis is still necessary. Raptor certainly looks worse, but I still dont see scum doing what he did. I was about to write more, but did we ever hear from raptor yesterday? I'll wait to say anymore then.

Here he believes my result unflinchingly.

Datswan is town. Dylan likely mafia. vote: mix

Now in the immediate aftermath of the counterclaim he immediately flips to not believing me.  The only way I can see someone flipping that hard is as scum to support their partner.

Raptor is scum. Yuma is scum.

[Dylan32]

Also, I don't want anyone to miss it, because the biggest part of the case is the first sentence under the D2 heading. Go read the start of D2.

[yuma]

That would be horrible mafia play in every respect. L-2 is the worst place to bus a partner on day1 that early. Abandoning another wagon that had traction to go to my partner? Pah.

Going that hard on protecting partners before everyone had posted. Also a bad move.

Switching hard to protect a player that if flipped scum would directly implicate me.

I am not defending myself from bad play. Just not intentionally playing bad, which I would have as mafia in your scenario. Just possibly bad accidental play as town.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 3.2

XXraptorslayer96 (3): scolapasta, MiX, Dylan32
MiX (2): ashersky, yuma
Dylan32 (2): LaLight, Xxraptorslayer96

Not Voting (2): WestCoastDidds, DatSwan

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day Three ends at 8 pm forum time April 28th.

[Swowl]

If I flip town nothing will happen. There are no reads to be obtained with my flip. Unless you want heat on yourself and yuma, which you already have for simply voting me instead of the conflict. That's not pro-you, nor pro-town.

Just because you made a plan it doesn't mean it's better for town than scum's plan.

I'm done defending myself obviously nothing will change by me talking. I'm voting for scum, I suggest you all vote for scum.

For my amusement, can you make an organized list of every lie I said? Should also get people voting for me, that's what you want, right.

At this point, you sound like caught scum.

I don't need to list your lies -- the fact that you lied, and admit to that, is all that should matter.

Homie you wanna talk about lies? Like 2 posts before this you say "there is a 50-50 on Dylan vs Raptor but it is 100% on MiX". By WAYYYYY more coherent logic THAT is a lie.

There is in every way shape and form a better chance of finding skum in lynching one of Dylan/Raptor today. BEST... ABSOLUTE BEST case scenario following your logic we lynch mix... he is actually frikin mafia... then we have to choose between Raptor/Dylan because they sure as hell ain't gonna kill one or other.

We can just as easily take the coin flip today. If wrong lynch the other. Then lynch MiX (in your mind), as we could Lynch miX then take a coin flip. The only difference is that by lynching MiX first... even if he is skum, it gives skum more night ops to shoot at the UB.

[ashersky]

If I flip town nothing will happen. There are no reads to be obtained with my flip. Unless you want heat on yourself and yuma, which you already have for simply voting me instead of the conflict. That's not pro-you, nor pro-town.

Just because you made a plan it doesn't mean it's better for town than scum's plan.

I'm done defending myself obviously nothing will change by me talking. I'm voting for scum, I suggest you all vote for scum.

For my amusement, can you make an organized list of every lie I said? Should also get people voting for me, that's what you want, right.

At this point, you sound like caught scum.

I don't need to list your lies -- the fact that you lied, and admit to that, is all that should matter.

Homie you wanna talk about lies? Like 2 posts before this you say "there is a 50-50 on Dylan vs Raptor but it is 100% on MiX". By WAYYYYY more coherent logic THAT is a lie.

There is in every way shape and form a better chance of finding skum in lynching one of Dylan/Raptor today. BEST... ABSOLUTE BEST case scenario following your logic we lynch mix... he is actually frikin mafia... then we have to choose between Raptor/Dylan because they sure as hell ain't gonna kill one or other.

We can just as easily take the coin flip today. If wrong lynch the other. Then lynch MiX (in your mind), as we could Lynch miX then take a coin flip. The only difference is that by lynching MiX first... even if he is skum, it gives skum more night ops to shoot at the UB.

I disagree with a lot of your post, but the bolded line is worth discussion.

Since you are making that point, you are inherently stating you believe raptor and not Dylan, btw.  Did you mean to do that?  If I am wrong about MiX, as you think could be possible (I'm not), that would be worthy of scumslip territory (except it's MiX, so you are safe).  Of course, me being wrong is helpful to scum and keeping MiX around to be my focus helps scum, which is what you seem to be suggesting we do by not lynching him.

[Swowl]

Please explain to me what you disagree with.

For the bold... more importantly I am dumb and it doesn't matter. If we lynch Mix today and he is skum then town has a GTD win so the UB thing doesn't matter at all.

And more obviously I was talking in terms of "if" not for sure. Assuredly if we lynch mix (or anyone that is not dylan/Raptor) skum is not going to kill dylan or raptor. So if a shot exists, it gives skum another shot at ridding UB prior to ridding the role. But you knew that.

Also also... Here is some math before you try to call me on weak skum slips or whatever:

We have 1 lynched skum
1 of Dylan and Raptor is skum
you are "100% on Mix being skum"

Explain how I slipped if those things are true.

[yuma]

vote: Dylan, but I am pretty much going with ashersky's POV on MiX. I could tell the moment that he posted that he saw something and from that moment I felt it was worth hearing. I still think it is. Call it sheeping. That is fine. But I do see DatSwan's point of view as well and think I will actually get to influence who gets voted today (see MiX!!!).