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[faust]

Since we should be in twilight I can wonder out loud, has a real cop ever claimed 1-shot early on in order to share a guilty result and be allowed to live another day?

You're not a real cop

Yeah man, shraeye was the real Cop! The one and only.

[MiX]

Since we should be in twilight I can wonder out loud, has a real cop ever claimed 1-shot early on in order to share a guilty result and be allowed to live another day?

You're not a real cop

Yeah man, shraeye was the real Cop! The one and only.

Well, he did have an innocent result on himself. That's more than dylan for sure!

[Swowl]

Hammered yes?

[A Drowned Kernel]

Joseph2302 has been lynched! He was a Mafia Goon.

Day Two Final Vote Count

Xxraptorslayer96 (1): scolapasta
LaLight (1): yuma
Joseph2302 (6): MiX, WestCoastDidds, LaLight, Dylan32, ashersky, faust

Not Voting (3): Joseph2302, Xxraptorslayer96, DatSwan

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch. Night Two begins now and ends at 8 pm forum time April 21st (a little longer night due to my work schedule).

[A Drowned Kernel]

Day Three Start

faust was killed in the night! He was a Vanilla Townie.

Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (9): MiX, Dylan32, WestCoastDidds, Xxraptorslayer96, yuma, ashersky, LaLight, DatSwan, scolapasta

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 8 pm forum time April 28th.

THREAD UNLOCKED

[scolapasta]

OK, So my DatSwan - Raptor hypothesis seems to have been proven incorrect. No problem. Still not sure why Raptor didn't hammer Day 1 (did we ever hear from him, but seems pretty clear he's the one to vote for today.

vote: raptor

[yuma]

Cool. I know I didn't contribute at all, but cool. I am glad Dylan had the result he did cause I probably would have fought all day against the Raptor lynch and probably the Joseph lynch by association. I dont know if I would have been successful in that, but possibly. So good job to Dylan there.

I think actual wagon analysis is still necessary. Raptor certainly looks worse, but I still dont see scum doing what he did. I was about to write more, but did we ever hear from raptor yesterday? I'll wait to say anymore then.

[MiX]

Massclaim, UB says nothing.

I am VT I already softclaimed this anyway. Whoever posts without claiming from now is the same as claiming VT, for obvious reasons.

Dylan and Swan are town. No idea why faust died. Raptor is easily scum, and so is yuma. More thoughts after massclaim.

[yuma]

I'll be the dumb one and ask for the logic of mass claiming but will already say I am all for it cause it is fun. But have a feeling a bunch of people will be up in arms without the math or talking about it forever. Sooo.... VT

[Xxraptorslayer96]

I totally understand why I am on the chopping block. It was an honest mistake that I did not hammer on day 1. I really did just loose track of time, i was an hour off of when i thought deadline was. I was not around on open of D2 because it was my IRL bday so wasn't around. I had no problem hammering Joseph, he was not my top but that is not why I didn't hammer.

I honestly rather look at everyone else who wasn't on him end of D1. I understand that some people weren't online, but I feel like I am just the easy scapegoat for scum. I understand that everyone has to to what what they feel is right, but i ask that we at least look at other options before i get lynched.
 

PPE 3

[MiX]

I'll be the dumb one and ask for the logic of mass claiming but will already say I am all for it cause it is fun. But have a feeling a bunch of people will be up in arms without the math or talking about it forever. Sooo.... VT

It's very simple. A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR. Since we have a 1-shot cop claim, that's all the PRs possible, which means any more non-UB claims are a counterclaim, and we definitely want those. That's all. We hide the UB because we only need them to claim a day before LyLo, where scum can't claim it safely. When UB claims and etc is complicated, but the massclaim of non-UB isn't.

[Xxraptorslayer96]

I am 1- shot doc I have not used my shot.

Massclaim, UB says nothing.

[scolapasta]

A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR.

Can you explain this a little more? I know it has to do with the setup, but I'm not sure I completely get how that works.

[MiX]

I am 1- shot doc I have not used my shot.

Massclaim, UB says nothing.

Vote: raptor, why didn't you vote dylan?

[Xxraptorslayer96]

I am 1- shot doc I have not used my shot.

Massclaim, UB says nothing.

Vote: raptor, why didn't you vote dylan?

what? when?

[LaLight]

vote: raptor

i am a vt

[MiX]

A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR.

Can you explain this a little more? I know it has to do with the setup, but I'm not sure I completely get how that works.

Okay let's see if I can explain this, maybe I'm wrong lol who knows.

In the setup, the mod rolls 6 letters. So, in theory, we can have any combination of any letters. They can be seperated into T rolls and non-T rolls. T rolls affect scum directly, and essencially means they don't add a PR. Non-T rolls add PRs according to the table (I'm not linking the setup here, but if you want the link just say so). Since a Goon flipped, it means we are in the TTTTTT (6) or TTTTT (5), with a sixth letter. This means we have at most one letter. Now you can look at all the possible letters we can have, and you find out that, other than mason (that replaces UB with mason), we can only have 1 additional PR. Since Dylan claimed 1-shot cop, he's the only claimed PR, which means any other PRs (including the masons) would be counterclaiming him, and thus should claim immediately.

Please ask any questions you may have, this explanation is far from perfect.

[ashersky]

I'll be the dumb one and ask for the logic of mass claiming but will already say I am all for it cause it is fun. But have a feeling a bunch of people will be up in arms without the math or talking about it forever. Sooo.... VT

It's very simple. A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR. Since we have a 1-shot cop claim, that's all the PRs possible, which means any more non-UB claims are a counterclaim, and we definitely want those. That's all. We hide the UB because we only need them to claim a day before LyLo, where scum can't claim it safely. When UB claims and etc is complicated, but the massclaim of non-UB isn't.

vote: MiX for scumslip/misdirection.

[MiX]

I am 1- shot doc I have not used my shot.

Massclaim, UB says nothing.

Vote: raptor, why didn't you vote dylan?

what? when?

You're caught scum for not reading the setup. I explaned to scola why you're outed, you can go read the setup to find out why.

I'll be the dumb one and ask for the logic of mass claiming but will already say I am all for it cause it is fun. But have a feeling a bunch of people will be up in arms without the math or talking about it forever. Sooo.... VT

It's very simple. A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR. Since we have a 1-shot cop claim, that's all the PRs possible, which means any more non-UB claims are a counterclaim, and we definitely want those. That's all. We hide the UB because we only need them to claim a day before LyLo, where scum can't claim it safely. When UB claims and etc is complicated, but the massclaim of non-UB isn't.

vote: MiX for scumslip/misdirection.

What???

[MiX]

Okay but seriously, if I said anything wrong, then I don't know what it is and I would like a clarification. What did I get wrong, if at all, and if so, on what? Just voting me isn't helping anyone.

[Swowl]

hold on I need to read - I got shit to say about some of the actions at end of day.

I almost 100% am not going to claim so take that as you will.

[ashersky]

Okay but seriously, if I said anything wrong, then I don't know what it is and I would like a clarification. What did I get wrong, if at all, and if so, on what? Just voting me isn't helping anyone.

Need to be AFK for a bit, will expound later.  But, the short version is, you lied in your post, and I think it would be based on scum thinking.  I think you are partners with either Dylan or Raptor.

[MiX]

Okay but seriously, if I said anything wrong, then I don't know what it is and I would like a clarification. What did I get wrong, if at all, and if so, on what? Just voting me isn't helping anyone.

Need to be AFK for a bit, will expound later.  But, the short version is, you lied in your post, and I think it would be based on scum thinking.  I think you are partners with either Dylan or Raptor.

If the lie is me trusting Dylan's claim, then, sure, I took it as being true. Otherwise I have no idea, but I guess that's how you catch scum? ...Is it about the UB...? I have to admit I didn't think about when the UB claims, but since raptor claimed there's no need to anymore.

I'll sleep on this...

[scolapasta]

A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR.

Can you explain this a little more? I know it has to do with the setup, but I'm not sure I completely get how that works.

Okay let's see if I can explain this, maybe I'm wrong lol who knows.

In the setup, the mod rolls 6 letters. So, in theory, we can have any combination of any letters. They can be seperated into T rolls and non-T rolls. T rolls affect scum directly, and essencially means they don't add a PR. Non-T rolls add PRs according to the table (I'm not linking the setup here, but if you want the link just say so). Since a Goon flipped, it means we are in the TTTTTT (6) or TTTTT (5), with a sixth letter. This means we have at most one letter. Now you can look at all the possible letters we can have, and you find out that, other than mason (that replaces UB with mason), we can only have 1 additional PR. Since Dylan claimed 1-shot cop, he's the only claimed PR, which means any other PRs (including the masons) would be counterclaiming him, and thus should claim immediately.

Please ask any questions you may have, this explanation is far from perfect.

So here's the link that explains it:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=10639.msg353797#msg353797

I'd read it before, but was confused. But I *think* I understand hwo you'r explaining it. You're saying that if of the six letters there had been 0-4 T's then there would not have been a generic mafia goon. Meaning it has to have been at least 5 or 6 T, meaning only one other letter could be none T, and in all those cases, there is only 1 PR.

Is that it?

Now I'll reread to see what you may have missed or misdirected.

[Swowl]

I'll be the dumb one and ask for the logic of mass claiming but will already say I am all for it cause it is fun. But have a feeling a bunch of people will be up in arms without the math or talking about it forever. Sooo.... VT

It's very simple. A goon flip means we're in 5 or 6 Ts scenario, which means we have a maximum of 1 PR. Since we have a 1-shot cop claim, that's all the PRs possible, which means any more non-UB claims are a counterclaim, and we definitely want those. That's all. We hide the UB because we only need them to claim a day before LyLo, where scum can't claim it safely. When UB claims and etc is complicated, but the massclaim of non-UB isn't.

this logic checks out. or at least I did it last night and the 5-6 Ts and all that is true.

Raptor has claimed Doc. Dylan has claimed Cop.
There can be at most 1 Town PR. So Both of these cannot be true. 
There can be at most a skum team of Dead!Goon, Goon, and GF.

We have 9 alive. With this play out of events, over today and tomorrow we essentially (or literally I think) find 1 of the remaining skum. There will be a max of 4 flips in that time.
That puts us, worst case, starting Day 5 with 5 players alive - 1 skum and 4 town.

That means on Day 5 if we lynch incorrectly, it goes to last day on Day 6.
MiX, remember I am town before you drill me on this - Skum in this spot would not isolate themselves as raptor has into that kill pool. They would claim VT. The only exception is if Raptor and Dylan are both skum, Raptor is being coached (so he is probably GF in that scenario)... but either way... skum!Anyone, does not open claim knowing that Dylan is town telling the truth.

Also I 100% do not belive Dylan's claim, I was already digging into it last night.

Haven't read the start of the day, but I am a 1-shot cop and got a guilty result on Joseph. Catching up now.

Vote: Joseph

So... like that is not how a player plays with a result. They read first. I am 100% on team lynch Dylan right now.
Sigh... However... Dylan is not a bad player, and if they were skum they would of known that flipping a goon means that literally any CC makes it Dylan vs the CC. Which is equally as weird of a play as them being town and claiming the result the way they did.

I am confused. One of them has to be skum at a minimum, but I don't get it. In order:
Dylan is skum Raptor is town
Dylan and Raptor are skum
Raptor is skum Dylan is town