Okie dokie. 2 days out of DL or so we have this ugly af vote count. (the coloring is not put in by LaLight, I have changed it for the purpose of illustrating this post based on info).
Vote count 2.3
SpaceAnemone (1):, Robz888
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Dylan32 (2): 2.71828....., Awaclus,
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
WestCoastDidds (2): EFHW, infangthief
DatSwan (2): pingpongsam, hypercube
Then there is this Space Count 1 day later - about a day from DL:
Space count as of #735:
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
WestCoastDidds (4): EFHW, infangthief, hypercube, Awaclus
DatSwan (1): pingpongsam
pingpongsam (1): 2.71828.....
hypercube (3): WestCoastDidds, Robz888, SpaceAnemone
Not voting (2): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds
From here:
Swan moves to Hypercube
Joseph moves to WCD
PPs moves to Hypercube
Joseph moves to Hypercube
Which leaves us at the below, a few hours from DL:
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (1): mcmcsalot
WestCoastDidds (4): EFHW, infangthief, hypercube, Awaclus
pingpongsam (1): 2.71828.....
hypercube (6): WestCoastDidds, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, pingpongsam, Joseph2302
Sorry for the long post, my intention is to make the VC's easy to reference for the points below.
From my PoV, there were two unknown players on the hypercube wagon at this point (WCD and Joseph).
- There is one viable wagon to use as defense at this point (WCD).
- WCD obviously is not going to switch to WCD. So, either WCD is Town following their wagon, or they are Skum and got stuck in a situation that they can't get out of. Because of the interactions between WCD and hypercube... I am strongly leaning Town on WCD at this point.
- Joseph could of switched to WCD, but chose to stay on hypercube. So, kind of the same thing (with the addition that I am strongly leaning Town on WCD now). Therefore, if Joseph was skum, they would of had to chose to stay on their skum buddy hypercube instead of trying to counter wagon WCD. The exception here would I guess be if the team is [hypercube, WCD, Joseph]... which I find highly unlikely. Because of this... I am dropping my previous read on Joseph, and for now taking them as a town read.
Now I get that that is a lot of assuming based on info without flips, which typically is not a good idea... but I pretty strongly believe in my logic to this point. It is because of that that I arrive at the concept of "all 6 at this point on hypercube were town".
From here a few very important things happen:
- EFHW claims intent to hammer
- PPS moves off of hypercube (bringing him to L-2)
- EFHW moves off of WCD to Dylan (as the only vote on Dylan)
- PPS follows EFHW to Dylan. This puts it at hypercube(5), WCD(3), Dylan(2)
Space then makes the pro play of the game thus far and claims, due to the dismantling of the hypercube wagon. This again brings up the point of triangles based on assumption of roles. We know PPS is town now, so their moves are read as so. The only other person moving around at this point is EFHW - Who moves off of WCD when hypercube has dropped to L-2. This, to me at least, is super suspicious. They claimed intent to hammer, then there is a claim and counter claim, and then they randomly go and attempt to create a new wagon on Dylan? That is weird to me.
If EFHW is Town, WCD is Town, and hypercube is skum... why would this counter claim cause EFHW to not put hypercube at L-1? However, to be fair, if EFHW is skum.. why would they not either choose to do nothing, or accept that it is gonna be either Space or hypercube and either try for Space or buss hypercube? *That is a real question I think should be answered btw - Like... EFHW, what was your thought process on voting Dylan at this point so close to DL after there was a claim and a CC?*
All that being said, while now, at this point, I would in fact be OK with going for EFHW just to be sure. However, it should also be noted that while I do town read WCD at this point, that there are a multitude of skum teams that can be reasonably created that contain [hypercube, WCD, X].
Since we have the delayed flip, and correctly imo have used the vig shot, my pool currently exists as something like [EFHW] or [2.7, MCMC, Dylan]. The second grouping is strongly influenced by the vote counts of Day 1.