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[Robz888]

Of course Insomniac taking the strong "There is no SK" argument doesn't fill me with so much confidence.

But if there IS an SK... you're all scum, except like one person. Which is actually kind of hard for me to picture at this point.

[Cuzz]

You guys and your SK theories. IT IS HIGHLY INPROBABLE THAT WE HAVE A SK.

Theorel, SK hunting as opposed to mafia hunting is bad because SK hunting is MUCH more likely than mafia hunting to cause a mislynch, additionally if there IS no SK it causes a scenario tomorrow where you lynch town and town gets shot overnight there are 7 people alive currently, so it brings it down to a 3-2 LYLO scenario which is pretty bad considering we hit scum on Day 2.

Look, any time we talk about what's "probable" or not, these all have to be considered conditionally.

Probability of SK at the beginning of the game? About 50/50

Probability of SK given missing nightkills? Getting into "rather improbable" territory.

BUT, probability of SK given missing NKs AND the fact that no SK implies Robz or Grujah is sparky's scumpartner?

Now to me this is looking much more likely.

Plus there's the little fact that you, Insomniac, were accused of being an SK yesterday by Robz. Today you are adamantly denying the possibility of an SK even existing. It would be one thing if people were accusing you today (well I guess I kinda am now) and you were denying the existence of an SK in the process of defending yourself, but instead you're just trying to constantly nudge everyone else into the mindset that an SK can't possibly exist.

[Robz888]

Also, why on earth do I have two votes against me? Maybe I'm not as obvtracker as I seem to myself? But if neither Grujah nor Jo are mafia, which I admit looks more possible now, I actually could be in danger of death here. It's a shame that Grujah is the one person I am sure is not scum, as he is by far the most unhelpful and misguided person in this game.

[jotheonah]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

[Robz888]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

[Cuzz]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

You're in that first world, Robz, scary though it may be.

[jotheonah]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

Couldn't you be scum instead?

[Insomniac]

Yesterday I was "obvSK" to many in the town, so when you all talk about SK Hunting I'm very aware that that makes me the top which is unfortunate because a)I know I'm a VT. and b)I'm making a logical argument and if anyone else made it you'd be more likely to believe them.

The problem is since everyone thinks I'm a VT if my logical argument denies the existance based on facts you just go lol obvsk.

[Robz888]

I've pretty much deduced that some bussing has to have happened somewhere. So I really think anybody could be scum at this point. I can't keep up with all this theory talk and I don't know who to trust, so I've reverted to my strongest read from the rest of the game (I explained my full case earlier). It's all I got. I'm goin for broke.

Theorel is taking a long-winded, mathematical approach to saying: It's really bad if there's an SK and we don't kill scum today.

Our big problem is that there are two mutually exclusive worlds. In one, a silent Serial Killer has failed or chosen not to kill two nights in a row, none of our PRs are lying, and 3 of O-Insomniac-Jo-Theorel are scum.

In the other world, exactly 1 PR is lying, and Cuzz has to be scum, unless Grujah and sparky played a masterfully thorough busing game, even during Day 1.

Couldn't you be scum instead?

No.

[Insomniac]

Vote: jotheonah

I'm comfortable with my vote here, I think his "deep down you know I'm town" was an attempt to pull a fast one.

[Robz888]

Vote: jotheonah

I'm comfortable with my vote here, I think his "deep down you know I'm town" was an attempt to pull a fast one.

But Insomniac, if there is no Serial Killer--which is what you say--doesn 't Cuzz have to be a liar, as I've said? Unless you distrust me?

[Robz888]

This game is so nerve wracking. I can't believe you still have a scum read on me Jo. It makes no sense. So maybe you are scum.

[Insomniac]

This game is so nerve wracking. I can't believe you still have a scum read on me Jo. It makes no sense. So maybe you are scum.

Lol I disagree with your read so I'm scum?

Here's the thing Robz I know from my PM that I am town. So I look at the setup

3 PR's
3 VT's

Now from a math standpoint I have a 1/3 chance in EITHER group. Well I would rather lynch a VT if I'm wrong then a PR if I'm wrong, therefore I need to lynch in the VT group as if there is no SK there is 1 scum in either group (most likely). So I look at theorel, jo and O. Of the 3 my strongest scum read is Jo, I don't just throw out a read because Jo says you know in your gut I'm town, Jo is a clever guy he could say that as scum.

While I get that you don't suspect Grujah, I'm not ruling out he could be the liar, from my PoV any of the 3 PR's could be. Grujah has played this game long enough he could bus sparky hard on Day 2 I don't think that rules him out, and well hey he thinks your a liar.

[Robz888]

This game is so nerve wracking. I can't believe you still have a scum read on me Jo. It makes no sense. So maybe you are scum.

Lol I disagree with your read so I'm scum?

That comment was directed at Jo, not you.

[Insomniac]

Oh sorry I misread your second statement because the first one was directed at me and I overlooked the Jo part.

FWIW I think that Cuzz is the most likely liar and you are the least likely but I'm not confident enough to risk lynching a PR.

[Robz888]

Well, if I can't get a Cuzz vote, Vote: Jotheonah. I really hope we have a Serial Killer then, I guess.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-6

Robz888 (2): Grujah, jotheonah
theorel (1): O
jotheonah (3): Cuzz, Insomniac, Robz888

Not voting {1}: theorel

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Thursday, October 18, 3:00 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Well I hope you guys don't lose. I think Cuzz could easily be the liar. I don't have any helpful reads I haven't already shared.

[Robz888]

Well I hope you guys don't lose. I think Cuzz could easily be the liar. I don't have any helpful reads I haven't already shared.

I agree!

[Cuzz]

I'd like to hear from O a bit more before anyone hammers. He's been a bit quiet D3.

[jotheonah]

Hey Robz, if I vote: Cuzz, will you switch back?

O, if I vote: theorel do you think we can get 2 more?

The only thing I can say definitively right now is that I'm town, and so lynching me would be a bad thing.

[Robz888]

I won't vote for Theorel over you, no. I may vote for Cuzz over you.

[Cuzz]

Hey Robz, if I vote: Cuzz, will you switch back?

O, if I vote: theorel do you think we can get 2 more?

The only thing I can say definitively right now is that I'm town, and so lynching me would be a bad thing.

Do you actually think me or theorel are scum or are you just making a frantic bargain?

[jotheonah]

I literally think anybody could be scum right now. Which is a terrible place to be.  But there is one exception of course, and that's the person who's at L-1.

So it's a frantic bargain, but it's very, very pro-town.

What the hell are you guys going to do tomorrow? Even if I flip scum (which I won't) it seems like you'll be stuck with exactly the same blind guessing game we're playing today.

[Cuzz]

I literally think anybody could be scum right now. Which is a terrible place to be.  But there is one exception of course, and that's the person who's at L-1.

So it's a frantic bargain, but it's very, very pro-town.

What the hell are you guys going to do tomorrow? Even if I flip scum (which I won't) it seems like you'll be stuck with exactly the same blind guessing game we're playing today.

This is reminiscent of your "even if sparky is scum, he's a bad lynch" comment. I swear I will never understand this argument. The point of the game as town is to lynch scum. There is no universe in which you flipping scum is not a wonderful outcome for town. Besides, you're wrong. There will be night events to analyze.