Basically what e said. It's not like OMG HE'S SCUM but there is a good possibility - I like to look for scum where you currently sit: in the zone of nothing too dramatic, nothing too out of the ordinary, and reasonable accord with general consensus.
Haddock has struck me as pretty hedgey. There was one post maybe yesterday that I was going to vote him for,
I guess I have been pretty middle of the line, because as has been noted by other people, everyone is seeming pretty similar this game. But I did take at least one strong stance, which is that on SS. I'm not saying it's the best case ever, there's a lot of gut in there, but I really do find SS scummy. I'm only not voting him because noone else was, so there was no point. Now that yuma is there, I could
vote: ss. Let's see how this goes.
I could get on either e or Ampharos if necessary to get a lynch through (preference for e probably because fewer people who I see as scummy are on his wagon). Right now though, there's still time.
Unrelatedly, I wanted to say that I agree completely with this:
experience in a certain area is a really shitty metric for who's likely right in an argument that takes place in this area. this is especially true if both persons discussing are reasonably intelligent and both know a little bit about the subject. In fact it's not only not a strong indication, it's almost entirely worthless.
the probability discussion is a great example. I am snapping here because this comment you made bothers me
I do feel a bit bad; at one point in that discussion I definitely tried to pull rank-by-experience. But it's crap, really. I do have a lot of maths experience, but not in the probability area at all - I probably have no more explicit probability experience than anyone who's taken any sort of sciencey bachelor's degree. I think I was just trying to take a shortcut to the end of the discussion.
In any case, I agree with SS; people with some background and some thought will often be right when people with experience are not.
I maintain that my answer was right, given the assumptions I made. I just didn't realise I was making any assumptions or that they didn't really fit the situation.