Just re-reading the setup.
We should definitely exile because there's a chance town can just win the game on day 1. A 10% chance if we were to commit to a truly random vote, which is honestly not bad odds.
It's really, really important that the jailkeeper stay hidden. They have like all of the town power and their existence is the only thing incentivising the mafia not to recruit. As long as the mafia doesn't recruit, the JK is a named townie. But also as long as the mafia doesn't recruit we have that chance of winning the game with every exile.
Idk, I guess the really important question for town is "Should we want the mafia to recruit or not?" If they recruit
- We get a no kill night
- We're playing against a team with chat, which gives us more meaningful interactions to analyse
- We get a functional jailkeeper, who could lead to more no-kill nights
If they don't
- Strongman is vulnerable/ town only needs to get lucky once to win
- The traitor doesn't know their partner, which means they could help us exile them (albeit unknowingly)
Additionally, if we exile the traitor and the jailkeeper is still alive they essentially become a triggered IC -- because their power will be useless for the rest of the game, other than as a named townie who scum can't counterclaim without throwing the game away.
Some questions for the mod:
Once the mafia recruits, is their nightkill able to be used by either player like normal, or only by the strongman?
What if the strongman dies after recruiting -- does the traitor than inherit the nightkill?