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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 181412 times)

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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1700 on: April 25, 2014, 05:51:52 am »

I refuse to believe that TA was shot two times by scum last night.

1. Why would scum have two NKs?
2. If they had, why use both on the same player!? Did they know he was bulletproof? They could have known if Ash is scum, but it would still be better to kill two townies and get TA lynched.

No, I think TA is lying. He still have a 1-shot forsaken-immunity left.

Because of this we should lynch him. We cannot count on mafia to kill him.
Besides it is risky to leave him alive.
Worst case is we lynch town, and have three more town dead during night. That leaves 2 mafia + SK  + 1 town left. Not what we want.

Lynch TA, and worst case we have 3 town and 2 mafia left. Classic LYLO situation that should be possible to win for us.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1701 on: April 25, 2014, 06:14:58 am »

I think Xexres is town, because of the last part of his role:

That's a lot of text.  Sadly my extra thing isn't that powerful. If someone is at a "meeting" with me and I send a message to them, I become mod-confirmed town to them.

Xeiron said he did not get my alignment confirmed to him.

Obviously, He is town if it is true. Scum will never be mod-confirmed as town (outside of bastard games).
If it is fake, Xerxes must have been planning it for a long time. Starting with asking if anyone knew of a meeting D1, and then asking me in his letter N" if he was confirmed town to me. I thought it was a weird question then, but everything makes sense now. It is probably true.

The only question is then. Who is on a meeting with Xerxes? If someone has something in their flavor, now is the time to mention. If I should make a guess, Yuma and Andrew, would be first in my mind.
If xerxes could target yuma tonight, and be IC tomorrow, that would be exellent. Andrew is not as good a choice, as he will likely be nightkilled.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1702 on: April 25, 2014, 06:21:50 am »

No I get that.

But from my perspective (which you really have no reason to believe, but hey):

Going into last night, I was 1-shot forsaken immune.

After stealing the dagger, I was 2-shot forsaken immune.

I am now 0-shot forsaken immune.

Obviously, mafia shot me once. But where's the second shot from?

It could very well be from you. Knowing that I shot Witherweaver, I know that you didn't have to, so I think you are a likely target for someone who shot me last night.

If it's not you, where did that second shot come from? Do you think I'm making it up?
Actually, I thought of a scenario:

Say scum!ash has a N0 head start on his Role Cop. He uses it to investigate Yuma and sees that he has a night vig. On N2, Witherweaver redirects Yuma's kill to TA in addition to their nightkill. I don't find it too far fetched.

Three problems with this theory.
- It would require both Ash and jimm to be scum. (Not really a problem, I think that is pretty likely)
- It would require ash to have a N=-shot. (Less likely to be true)
- It would require TA to be bulletproof against all types kills, not only to forsaken-kills. (That is the hardest to believe. TA would cleared up that by now if Ash was lying about his role.)
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1703 on: April 25, 2014, 09:21:23 am »

I don't have a meeting in my text... unfortunately.

xeiron did you ever ask mail-mi about killing TA and getting your dagger back?
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Archetype

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1704 on: April 25, 2014, 09:24:09 am »

No I get that.

But from my perspective (which you really have no reason to believe, but hey):

Going into last night, I was 1-shot forsaken immune.

After stealing the dagger, I was 2-shot forsaken immune.

I am now 0-shot forsaken immune.

Obviously, mafia shot me once. But where's the second shot from?

It could very well be from you. Knowing that I shot Witherweaver, I know that you didn't have to, so I think you are a likely target for someone who shot me last night.

If it's not you, where did that second shot come from? Do you think I'm making it up?
Actually, I thought of a scenario:

Say scum!ash has a N0 head start on his Role Cop. He uses it to investigate Yuma and sees that he has a night vig. On N2, Witherweaver redirects Yuma's kill to TA in addition to their nightkill. I don't find it too far fetched.

Three problems with this theory.
- It would require both Ash and jimm to be scum. (Not really a problem, I think that is pretty likely)
- It would require ash to have a N=-shot. (Less likely to be true)
- It would require TA to be bulletproof against all types kills, not only to forsaken-kills. (That is the hardest to believe. TA would cleared up that by now if Ash was lying about his role.)
Oh duh. I forgot about that last bulletpoint. Forsaken must of had an extra kill or something.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1705 on: April 25, 2014, 09:32:00 am »

maybe they have a strongman that somehow also uses up another kill? Unlikely but possible.

But mostly I think xeiron? is right that TA just isn't telling the truth (about loss of shots, not gaining... I think he still has a 1-shot) in hopes of staying alive through the night and then maybe staying alive the next day.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1706 on: April 25, 2014, 10:17:48 am »

I have no text about a meeting. Intent to hammer although I have no idea what the vote count is and I wont be on this computer for long.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1707 on: April 25, 2014, 10:41:18 am »

Oh yeah I also know who another mafia is, if you want me to shoot him tonight, you shouldn't lynch me.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1708 on: April 25, 2014, 10:59:26 am »

Oh yeah I also know who another mafia is, if you want me to shoot him tonight, you shouldn't lynch me.

Nice try.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1709 on: April 25, 2014, 11:00:16 am »

My PM also says they'Re my friends, so if you know who Egwene's friends are, I will probably send it to you. Also, it's plural, so there should be more than one person who is it.

TA: how would you know. I get you don't want to tell us who it is, or you'll get lynched, but why would you know who scum is? I think you're lying.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1710 on: April 25, 2014, 11:07:42 am »

Okay, I looked up the flavor, and I'm going to target either Andrew or Ashersky tonight, whose characters seem to be friends of mine. I feel so stupid for not asking everyone to flavor claim immediately.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1711 on: April 25, 2014, 11:09:07 am »

TA really looks like he's lying.
Vote: twistedarcher
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1712 on: April 25, 2014, 11:12:32 am »

Okay, I looked up the flavor, and I'm going to target either Andrew or Ashersky tonight, whose characters seem to be friends of mine. I feel so stupid for not asking everyone to flavor claim immediately.

I think you should target yuma. Egwene and Aviendha are friends in the flavor. Besides Yuma are the only one that can be expected to live through the night and be trusted to confirm you as town if he got that result.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1713 on: April 25, 2014, 11:16:29 am »

Doesn't look like anywhere close to hammering.
vote: TA

PPE: 1

Tomorrow we lynch Xeiron, no matter what excuses he brings up. He's lying above here, as far as I can tell, and didn't confirm me as town despite being one of the group I would expect to do that.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1714 on: April 25, 2014, 11:17:54 am »

Of course, if you're telling the truth, you'll die, and we won't need to lynch you.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1715 on: April 25, 2014, 11:19:29 am »

I don't have a meeting in my text... unfortunately.

xeiron did you ever ask mail-mi about killing TA and getting your dagger back?

Mail-mi said that I get no extra information outside of what my pm already states.
My pm tells me that I die the night after I loose my dagger. It does not mentions if it possible to get it back.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1716 on: April 25, 2014, 11:26:50 am »

yuma, please don't get fooled by that possible excuse. Google "wheel of time wiki egwene" and look in the page. Aviendha is never mentioned, while Andrew's, ADK's, and Ash's characters are mentioned as friends .
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1717 on: April 25, 2014, 11:29:53 am »

Egwene, Nynaeve, Rand, Perrin, and Mat all grew up in the same village. HOWEVER, Elayne, Nynaeve, and Aviendha would be her closest "friends". At least as far as I've gotten in the book.

I'm getting back on the road now. I'll check back whenever I can get to another computer.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1718 on: April 25, 2014, 11:30:37 am »

So why is Aviendha never mentioned in the wiki?
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1719 on: April 25, 2014, 11:31:45 am »

Do we have anyone who can protect Andrew?
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Jorbles

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1720 on: April 25, 2014, 12:03:20 pm »

Vote Count 3.3

Archetype (1): Twistedarcher,
Twistedarcher (3): yuma, ashersky, XerxesPraelor

Not Voting (4): Jimmmmm, xeiron, Archetype, AndrewisFTTW

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on April 27 at 11:30 PM FT.

Xeiron looks wan. He coughs, and it sounds wet and sickly.


Of note:
My computer is on the fritz and not usable right now. VLA for a while.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1721 on: April 25, 2014, 12:17:55 pm »

So why is Aviendha never mentioned in the wiki?
Who knows.

Egwene is mentioned in Aviendhas wiki.

"Aviendha first met  Egwene al'Vere, Elayne Trakand and Nynaeve al'Meara on their way to Tear. (...) There, Aviendha befriends the three women further, especially Egwene and Elayne, who she begins to call her near-sisters according to Aiel custom."

http://wot.wikia.com/wiki/Aviendha
[Warning, the link contains massive spoilers from the books]
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1722 on: April 25, 2014, 01:37:55 pm »

I totally was shot two times last night. Town if you lose the game because you didn't believe this, I will not feel sorry for you. I was 1-shot -- gained the second -- and lost both last night. Trust me, I went over this like 5 times with mail-mi, it's what happened.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1723 on: April 26, 2014, 12:59:13 am »

Game is dead, Yuma scum is cool letting me take the fall for him. Don't lynch meeee
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1724 on: April 26, 2014, 01:00:18 am »

I promise I am 100% not lying. I was shot TWICE. Once by mafia once by Yuma. He has no more shots though so he's not a priority.

Ash you are a consiracu theorist what do you think about my theory.
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