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[Witherweaver]

I'm back from LA in an hour or so.

I want to point out the stall-ness of the super stalled Andrew stall wagon.

Scum not bussing, maybe?  Stall wagon is scum wagon.

Translation?

[Twistedarcher]

Looking forward to your analysis Ash.

WW, basically he's saying that Andrew got to 5-6 votes then no one else was willing to vote. He's saying (correct me if I'm wrong here Ash) that a wagon that stalls at that point is more likely to be on scum than town, because with partners potentially not willing to bus, it's much much harder to get to 7 people than on a town member.

[faust]

Faust, xeiron, you are not really talking about why this wagon is scummy...just that the fact that there is a wagon. Wagons happen towards the end of days. Why is this one scummy? I didn't see anything from either of you that makes me want to unvote. I'm not scared just cause its a wagon why would I be? We need wagons to make lynches.

It is scummy because I see very little reasoning behind that wagon.

[sudgy]

Looking back at the vote count, I realized I'm still not voting Andrew.  Vote: AndrewisFTTW

[Jorbles]

Vote Count 1.9:

sudgy (5): Jimmmmm, yuma, Twistedarcher, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel
AndrewisFTTW (4): XerxesPraelor, faust, Witherweaver, sudgy
Jimmmmmmm (1): xeiron

Not voting (4): shraeye, ashersky, AndrewisFTTW

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends April 3 at 8 PM forum time. (mail-mi won't be home at that time, but no more votes will be accepted after that time. Jorbles may be around and will try to get online asap if it comes right down to deadline.)

[ashersky]

Looking forward to your analysis Ash.

WW, basically he's saying that Andrew got to 5-6 votes then no one else was willing to vote. He's saying (correct me if I'm wrong here Ash) that a wagon that stalls at that point is more likely to be on scum than town, because with partners potentially not willing to bus, it's much much harder to get to 7 people than on a town member.

That's the gist, yes.  I think it's fairly accurate to say that wagons that grow, then stall, but don't shrink, are often on scum.  I think it's truer later in games, especially if scum have a larger share of the votes, but we've seen it often on Day 1s.  It's been done on purpose by scum teams before (see the yuma/raerae/axxle team in Adventure Time for how it doesn't always work out).

[ashersky]

So I'm back from VLA.

I'll prioritize this game over my other one, as the deadline is sooner.  I've skimmed along when possible in airports and whatnot, and posted sparingly.  I'll read back and get thoughts down today.

[yuma]

That's the gist, yes.  I think it's fairly accurate to say that wagons that grow, then stall, but don't shrink, are often on scum.  I think it's truer later in games, especially if scum have a larger share of the votes, but we've seen it often on Day 1s.  It's been done on purpose by scum teams before (see the yuma/raerae/axxle team in Adventure Time for how it doesn't always work out).

I don't think that is fair to say. I would say that it happens, but I would not use the qualifier "often." Although I would agree more with the assessment of "later" days, but I don't believe you can just state that this is a scum wagon because it stalled... especially once you analyze the content that it is based on... people realizing that the wagon was rather crappy in the first place isn't going to lead to a bunch of new voters... instead just people digging their heals in and being stubborn.

[ashersky]

And I consistently think that no-lynching is a better option in RMM games than normal games, so that might be an option but I anticipate getting a lot of negative backlash against that idea so I doubt it will go through.

From a role/setup standpoint, you are generally correct about the merits of a no-lynch in RMM.  From a gameplay/scumhunting standpoint, though, I don't think it's in our best interest.

The flip gives us a very important first data point against which we can compare everything else.  We don't have a reference for anything anyone's said yet.  That first flip gives us that.

Plus, we don't know how much power scum has at night; it could outweigh anything we think we're gaining by no lynching.

This is true. However, I would postulate that in a RMM game we would have some roles with investigative abilities that could feasibly provide data points to go off... but that is an assumption (and i won't get into that argument again). But your point about mafia outweighing us in PRs is also good.

But really I think the reason that I always want to no-lynch in RMM is that I hate the idea of having a cool role and then losing the opportunity to use it because of a lynch. The first RMM game (RMMI) solved this and I tried to solve it as well in AD Mafia. Someday we should try it... why not this game?

I see your point yuma, but I just don't think this is the game where it happens.  I think this discussion trailed off after this post, right?

Each player knows whether their role is cool enough to want to no lynch for.  But no one can make that argument without painting a target on their back, right?  Seems dangerous to me.  Maybe that's why the discussion hasn't happened.

I guess maybe it's good to keep in mind that no lynch isn't the end of the world and if you are choosing between a deadline hammer of a town read or letting it deadline out, there's an argument to be made that no lynch is not egregious?

[ashersky]

That's the gist, yes.  I think it's fairly accurate to say that wagons that grow, then stall, but don't shrink, are often on scum.  I think it's truer later in games, especially if scum have a larger share of the votes, but we've seen it often on Day 1s.  It's been done on purpose by scum teams before (see the yuma/raerae/axxle team in Adventure Time for how it doesn't always work out).

I don't think that is fair to say. I would say that it happens, but I would not use the qualifier "often." Although I would agree more with the assessment of "later" days, but I don't believe you can just state that this is a scum wagon because it stalled... especially once you analyze the content that it is based on... people realizing that the wagon was rather crappy in the first place isn't going to lead to a bunch of new voters... instead just people digging their heals in and being stubborn.

Okay.  I haven't done the stats on this particular phenomenon, but it feels "often" to me.  Depends on the scum's willingness to bus early, too, I suppose.

There are many reasons for a wagon to stall, I think is your point.  I think you'd concede that "the wagon is on scum and they don't want to bus" is one possible reason.

[ashersky]

I still find Andrewis to be the most guilty acting.. it just feels like he's hiding something.  I don't really have any reason to think differently about him, so I'll leave my vote where it is for now. 

I'd like more elaboration on the "it feels like he's hiding something" thing, that feels incredibly vague.

I'm having a hard time with this game, especially since the whole RMM thing might give people any number of motivations for doing or saying odd things based on their roles. But as I pointed out way back when, when the thing with Andrew and me happened, Sudgy originally was voting for me, then switched to Andrew when Andrew started getting more heat. His justifications for voting for Andrew were, as has been pointed out, flimsily based on a misinterpretation of a previous game. To me it looks like he was eager for a mislynch. For me it's all enough to

Vote: Sudgy

That is L-1.

Did the bolded line above strike anyone else as very odd?  It's either rolefishy or...I don't know.  Something off about it.  It's completely unconnected to the rest of the paragraph, too, which is about voting and such.

I don't know what it means, but I'm not a big fan.

[ashersky]

If you are going to mislynch, I would probably be a better choice because (I'm saying this because I'm at L-1), my role isn't the greatest.  I'll full claim if someone announces intent to hammer.

Sounds like sudgy knows the other wagon is a mislynch before it happens...

[sudgy]

If you are going to mislynch, I would probably be a better choice because (I'm saying this because I'm at L-1), my role isn't the greatest.  I'll full claim if someone announces intent to hammer.

Sounds like sudgy knows the other wagon is a mislynch before it happens...

I'm more saying, "If you're going to lynch me, it's one of the best mislynches you could make (whoever it is you are lynching)."

[ashersky]

If you are going to mislynch, I would probably be a better choice because (I'm saying this because I'm at L-1), my role isn't the greatest.  I'll full claim if someone announces intent to hammer.

Sounds like sudgy knows the other wagon is a mislynch before it happens...

I'm more saying, "If you're going to lynch me, it's one of the best mislynches you could make (whoever it is you are lynching)."

Maybe, but it doesn't sound that way.

[Archetype]

Recent blitz experiences (and I'm sure Yuma would agree here) has taught me that super fast wagons and deadline crunches are not only a great tool for reading interactions, but also they have just as high a chance of hitting scum than a wagon that forms slowly

I find this true as well. The Mcmcsalot quick lynch in the last Blitz game made his partners really obvious.

[ashersky]

Alright, caught up.

Honestly, not a lot there.  TA and yuma are town reads out of all of this.

I feel like there are a number of players just skating by, and it's an easy place for scum to hide.  I'd say faust, both Xs, ADK, shraeye and maybe Jimmmmm fit into that description?  Obviously can't all be scum, but seems like a good place to hide.

We've got 50 hours to deadline, basically.  I don't think we should limit this to sudgy vs. Andrew (the only two wagons currently), but need to look around.

The good thing about a lynch of either large wagon is plenty of interactions to review.  Andrew has done nothing to convince me of his innocence up to this point, and nothing going on around him has cleared him either.  sudgy is always scummy, and he's not seemingly like caught!sudgy, which he's (unfortunately for him) unable to hide very well.

I'm going to do some targeted re-reads.

[Archetype]

I support a sudgy lynch. I'd prefer xeiron or ADK, but it seems like a wagon is unlikely to start on them.  I don't mind an Andrew lynch, but I'd vote for sudgy over him.

Could you say why?

Well, considering I was the first person to zero in on your L-1 thing, that is the main reason. The switching your vote to Andrew because he got some more heat is a classic scumtell. With the quote ashersky recently pulled up, it looks like you are giving up. Which is another scumtell. Granted, I usually read you as scummy. However, this sort of reminds me of that one game where you were a SK, so I'm comfortable with my vote.

[Archetype]

I still find Andrewis to be the most guilty acting.. it just feels like he's hiding something.  I don't really have any reason to think differently about him, so I'll leave my vote where it is for now. 

I'd like more elaboration on the "it feels like he's hiding something" thing, that feels incredibly vague.

I'm having a hard time with this game, especially since the whole RMM thing might give people any number of motivations for doing or saying odd things based on their roles. But as I pointed out way back when, when the thing with Andrew and me happened, Sudgy originally was voting for me, then switched to Andrew when Andrew started getting more heat. His justifications for voting for Andrew were, as has been pointed out, flimsily based on a misinterpretation of a previous game. To me it looks like he was eager for a mislynch. For me it's all enough to

Vote: Sudgy

That is L-1.

Did the bolded line above strike anyone else as very odd?  It's either rolefishy or...I don't know.  Something off about it.  It's completely unconnected to the rest of the paragraph, too, which is about voting and such.

I don't know what it means, but I'm not a big fan.

I read it as just a player's first RMM game. I think it'd be odd if it came from anyone who wasn't new to the RMM scene.

[Twistedarcher]

I'd maybe consider Xeiron but I don't think I would consider anyone else outside of Andrew/Sudgy.

[ashersky]

I'd maybe consider Xeiron but I don't think I would consider anyone else outside of Andrew/Sudgy.

What's your reasoning there?

[Twistedarcher]

I'd maybe consider Xeiron but I don't think I would consider anyone else outside of Andrew/Sudgy.

What's your reasoning there?

on xeiron? or on not considering anyone else?

[ashersky]

Targeted re-read of Xerxes, who's had a grand total of 7 posts.

1 - votes for faust after the "If I was Mordeth" comment
2 - flavor claims egwene (pronounced Egg Weenee from now on), asks if anyone is going to a meeting
3 - votes for Andrew for his reaction to the scumslip argument, called it "too much self-awareness for town"
4 - expands on Andrew, says it looks like he combed his post to be as towny as possible
5 - fine with his Andrew vote, says Andrew ignored his explanation, slight scum read on ash out of the blue (basically OMGUS for me mentioning he'd be a good yumavig.)
6 - gives a 3-2-1-4 answer, saying that ash scum/Andrew town is most likely.  Inconsistent with votes and statements.
7 - edit for clarification, not a separate post


So...not a strong showing from Xerxes here.  I find his ranking that ash scum/Andrew town is his top choice in the pairings very odd, given his points on Andrew and his "fine with my vote" comment.  Inconsistency isn't always an alignment tell, but it's something that's noticed anyway.

[ashersky]

I'd maybe consider Xeiron but I don't think I would consider anyone else outside of Andrew/Sudgy.

What's your reasoning there?

on xeiron? or on not considering anyone else?

Yes.

[Twistedarcher]

On no one else: I don't have any major scum reads, and given that there's already wagons on two people I think have a decent chance of being scum (Sudgy + Andrew), I'm not really interested in moving my vote from Sudgy right now....if that doesn't work I am fine with Andrew. They are at the top of my scum list basically so I'm happy keeping the lynch between the two of them.

On Xeiron: He seems less puzzly than usual, and I found his view on the Sudgy wagon scummy (moreso than Faust's). I'm not interested in voting there over Sudgy or Andrew right now, but I'd be happier there than anywhere else.

[yuma]

On Xeiron: He seems less puzzly than usual, and I found his view on the Sudgy wagon scummy (moreso than Faust's). I'm not interested in voting there over Sudgy or Andrew right now, but I'd be happier there than anywhere else.

And for some reason I found faust's response scummier than xeirons... but I can't remember why.

Oh, I remember... xeiron went somewhere with it and moved to a Jimmmm vote. He tried to narrow down the suspicion and see what people actually did and said, faust just made a vast statement and continued to remain on the Andrew wagon. Casting a wide net of suspicion but not doing anything about it...