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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 180119 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #500 on: March 31, 2014, 06:52:52 am »

What do you guys think is more likely?

1) I'm scum and ash is scum
2) I'm scum and ash is town
3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

Show your work!

From most likely to least:

4 - 2 -3 - 1
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faust

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #501 on: March 31, 2014, 06:54:56 am »

I'm fine with yuma not shooting today, I guess... it's better to have the Andrew wagon for analyzing than to have him shot, so he shouldn't shoot Andrew... and if he's not compulsive, well, there are benefits to scum not shooting D1. Though I think yuma needs to shoot D2 to confirm his role.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #502 on: March 31, 2014, 11:10:49 am »

I'll go 3-2-1-4.
I'm really confused by the ash-andrew thing. Both of them are scummy, but it seems unlikely that they would attack eachother that hard as town.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #503 on: March 31, 2014, 11:11:23 am »

*scum
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #504 on: March 31, 2014, 11:17:02 am »

XP and faust, you both this it's most likely I'm town. So why lynch me today?
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #505 on: March 31, 2014, 11:45:04 am »

I do not like a no-lynch.
We should use the oppurtunities we have to try lynch scum.

Better with Vote: AndrewisFTTW. I think he has a decent chance of flipping scum, and either way, he wagon will be informative.
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faust

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #506 on: March 31, 2014, 01:06:49 pm »

XP and faust, you both this it's most likely I'm town. So why lynch me today?

Because I think that about every single player in this game, and you're the most scummy.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #507 on: March 31, 2014, 02:19:54 pm »

Quiet weekend huh.

Andrew I am not seeing any obvious connection between you and ash -- I think all 4 are possible. Why did you pick ash rather than someone else for that question? I must be missing some connection there
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #508 on: March 31, 2014, 02:33:10 pm »

Because ash is the one who pushed this whole thing and someone suggested he could be scum, which I don't really see.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #509 on: March 31, 2014, 02:33:47 pm »

You think he's town?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #510 on: March 31, 2014, 02:40:03 pm »

I do. I don't think he'd be this bold to push this lynch if he was scum, although shraeye mentioned that because it's ash, it's possible.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #511 on: March 31, 2014, 02:42:49 pm »

because it's ash, it's likely.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #512 on: March 31, 2014, 03:01:39 pm »

Andrew what are the scummiest things you've seen today that don't involve the pushing of your wagon?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #513 on: March 31, 2014, 03:12:38 pm »

Andrew what are the scummiest things you've seen today that don't involve the pushing of your wagon?

I'm going to do a quick re-read before answering that.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #514 on: March 31, 2014, 03:56:40 pm »

Ok I just skimmed over the last 10 pages or so. I think sudgy is scummiest to me right now. The whole L-1 thing looks to me like him trying to get in on the action to avoid suspicion of scum off the wagon.

Even before his vote, he begins with this, going to Adventure Time to compare my posts:

I skimmed the first day of Adventure Time to see how he reacted to his lynch and he didn't seem to be fighting it nearly as much there as here.  That play difference would be enough to make me vote him, but he's at L-1, so...

But later (much later) he realizes his mistake:

Oh, wait, when you said you were only there for the first day in Adventure Time I thought that meant you got lynched.  That puts a wrench in things...

He votes me first for my play in Adventure Time but when that doesn't work he doesn't really say much about it. His latest post is this:

What do you guys think is more likely?

1) I'm scum and ash is scum
2) I'm scum and ash is town
3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

Show your work!

I think 2 because of reasons I've stated earlier.

But what are the reasons you stated earlier? Do you mean the comparison of my play here and my play in Adventure Time?

And then there's this. This still baffles me:


I (at the current moment) think you are scum, so I vote for you.  I don't want the day to end now, but that doesn't make me not want to vote you.  If it was only a day left to deadline I would be fine with a hammer.

And then here's sudgy defending his L-1 vote:

sudgy- switched from my wagon to Andrew's pretty easily, seems like he knew they were both mislynches and was waiting to see which one was going to be easier to push.

I think you are somewhat scummy, but not as much as Andrew.  Also, I knew more work would get done if I switched to Andrew.

Sudgy, why did you put Andrew to L-1 if you arent comfortable lynching him?

I am comfortable lynching him, but not right away.
Alright. If you don't want it right away, then why put him to L-1? Especially since you said you'd go after whoever hammered him...that hammering could be prevented if you never put Andrew to L-1 in the first place.

Two reasons:

1. Actually voting for someone is a lot more than saying you will
2. L-1 is a scary place to be and we could figure out more from it

As for someone else hammering, I would only expect it from scum at this point (which is why it probably wouldn't happen) and it would be great if we could figure it out.  Yuma possibly dying was what made me reconsider.

I'm more suspicious of sudgy putting me at L-1 than I am of whoever might hammer me and I don't think the hammer necessarily has to come from scum. It seems like if someone DID hammer, on D2 sudgy would jump all over them and thus try to shift suspicion as best he can.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #515 on: March 31, 2014, 03:58:10 pm »

Andrew what are the scummiest things you've seen today that don't involve the pushing of your wagon?

Sorry I misread that. Scummiest things I've seen that don't involve the pushing of my wagon. Got it. I'll re-read again.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #516 on: March 31, 2014, 04:05:02 pm »

Would some kind of DaySK work?
Vote: jimm
For implying that yuma is someone that we might want to lynch.

How is evaluating someone's claim voteworthy? I said it's pretty unlikely. I'd love to have an IC, but giving someone IC status without considering alternative explanations would be downright stupid. I think at this stage (obviously pending actually seeing him use his power), yuma's pretty close.
Getting defensive?
I take that as a sign that I might be on to something with my vote on you.

Well there's this. I've had a scummy vibe from Xerion all game.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #517 on: March 31, 2014, 04:07:38 pm »

That's definitely good points about sudgy though... I agree with a lot of what you were saying on him. Just based on wagon position I didn't think he would be scum, but I was confused with his read on ashersky and there's a lot of inconsistencies with what you bring up.

I don't think you could both be scum? He wouldn't want to put a teammate at d1 l-1 so quickly it's just too risky I think...like not impossible but not likely either.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #518 on: March 31, 2014, 04:25:12 pm »

I don't think you could both be scum? He wouldn't want to put a teammate at d1 l-1 so quickly it's just too risky I think...like not impossible but not likely either.

ash doesn't like to bus as scum. Maybe one of these days he'll turn that on its head and catch us all by surprise, but I'd say it's unlikely he's doing that here.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #519 on: March 31, 2014, 04:28:31 pm »

I'm talking about sudgy, not ash
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #520 on: March 31, 2014, 04:32:09 pm »

I'm talking about sudgy, not ash

Oh, well in that case I don't know. I should read better before I post...
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sudgy

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #521 on: March 31, 2014, 06:09:58 pm »

(I've been reading, but haven't found much to comment on, that's why I have been posting, sorry (mainly realized this because Andrew pointed out that my last post was a while ago))

What do you guys think is more likely?

1) I'm scum and ash is scum
2) I'm scum and ash is town
3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

Show your work!

I think 2 because of reasons I've stated earlier.

But what are the reasons you stated earlier? Do you mean the comparison of my play here and my play in Adventure Time?

I still think you got overly frustrated, and you still remind me of myself in DW.  The Adventure Time point is moot because I messed up.

Quote
L-1 Stuff

Can you please tell me why putting you to L-1 is scummy?  You've said that a bajillion times, I've said why I don't think it's scummy, but you (and others) have never said why it was.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Jorbles

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #522 on: March 31, 2014, 06:54:34 pm »

Vote Count 1.7:

sudgy (1): Jimmmmm
AndrewisFTTW (5): Twistedarcher, XerxesPraelor, faust, Witherweaver, xeiron
A Drowned Kernel (1): Archetype
Twistedarcher (1): AndrewisFTTW
Witherweaver (1): yuma

Not voting (4): A Drowned Kernel, sudgy, shraeye, ashersky

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch..

Day 1 ends April 3 at 8 PM forum time (mail-mi won't be home at that time, but no more votes will be accepted after that time. Jorbles may be around and will try to get online asap if it comes right down to deadline.)
« Last Edit: March 31, 2014, 11:32:03 pm by mail-mi »
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #523 on: March 31, 2014, 07:14:13 pm »

Can you please tell me why putting you to L-1 is scummy?  You've said that a bajillion times, I've said why I don't think it's scummy, but you (and others) have never said why it was.

I stated my theory in my last post but I guess I can repeat it. By saying you would only expect scum to hammer at that point, you effectively shifted blame for a mislynch onto whoever potentially hammers, and putting me at L-1 made it much easier for that to happen.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #524 on: March 31, 2014, 07:15:55 pm »

Can you please tell me why putting you to L-1 is scummy?  You've said that a bajillion times, I've said why I don't think it's scummy, but you (and others) have never said why it was.

I stated my theory in my last post but I guess I can repeat it. By saying you would only expect scum to hammer at that point, you effectively shifted blame for a mislynch onto whoever potentially hammers, and putting me at L-1 made it much easier for that to happen.

But that only makes sense if he actually expected someone to hammer.
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