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[yuma]

please note I am not saying WW should claim, just that maybe we should discuss it. I am not sure yet if I am going to shoot him, just that I want to and I am not sure about the merits of claiming or not claiming in regard to dayvigs....

[yuma]

  I regularly disappear for 1-2 days at a time.

I am just going to jump in here for quick suggestion. Perhaps use the VLA page if you know in advance that you are going to disappear. Doing that will alleviate the suspicion that some people will automatically have about you not being around. If you don't use the VLA we don't know where you are? If you do, then we do. Obviously this only works if you know in advance, which I don't know if that was the case here or not. The VLA is there to clear up precisely this sort of confusion.

[yuma]

Someone unvote dammit! I am panic posting from work on my buddies phone. I am a dayvig, if I am compulsive... which I may or may Not be... And I don't shoot before day is over guess what happens to me? so somebody unvote because if I am compulsive then a derp hammer will for sure kill a townie today.... Me. And if I am not compulsive well then hopefully everyone is aware that in a game like this there may be reasons to nit rush into putting someone to l1 when we still have a chunck of time left.

This panicky attitude... strange. Maybe means yuma is compulsive? Because I do not see the merit in stretching out D1. Better someone is put to L-1 when we have still time left than someone is put to L-1 when only 45 minutes remain, and there is no time for them to claim or for us to find an alternative lynch.

Regardless there IS MERIT when someone has a day power and needs more time to figure out how to use it properly. I can only think of one faction that woulnd't want me to use it properly...

[yuma]

...

So here's how you do a reread, apparently... you list a whole bunch of stuff that Andrew did, and in the end state you think that means he's probably town. But I see no obvious connection between the things you list and you thinking he is town. So I guess I like my rereads better.

...

I list what he did because a bunch of people requested I go look at his reactions to suspicion. I list what he did and found none of it blatantly or even somewhat scummy in the sense that people were saying. Really all of it was rather null... exactly how I would expect anyone to react to a situation where they were being called out for a stupid "scumslip"

I say he is town because ashersky kept saying that I had to take a stance on him, that I MUST be able to either decide if he is town or scum based off this stuff. So I decided that he is town, but really none of those posts made me think he is certainly townie just that he wasn't the certain scum people were making him out to be.

[yuma]

Going back and reading the posts where this started, Andrew seems overly defensive from the beginning.  If he had nothing to hide and the accusation had no credibility, then I don't think he'd need to respond with such incredulousness.

Vote: AndrewisFTTW

How would you respond if someone came up to you and accused you of making a mistake that you thought was totally innocent? Would you be overly defensive? He starts out surprised and then becomes incredulous and yes very, defensive once it picks up steam! I just read all of his posts and they look exactly like someone who was completely flummoxed by everything that everyone aroudn him was saying because it was based off a ridiculous premise and someone who is frustrated because no one except for me apparently is listening to him at all!

GAH!

vote: witherweaver

If I made a mistake like that and got accused for it, I would probably say sorry for my wrong assumptions and for distracting town, and try to convince those who saw that mistake that it wasn't more than a mistake. I wouldn't get all worked up and accuse those players that my mistake lead to falsely thinking I was scum to be drunk and ridiculous.

Really? You wouldn't do something really crazy like make a fake claim and then retract that claim?

Cause I would never do that. Must mean that you were scum in DWII. People react different in different situations. Just because you are apparently Mr. Joe Cool doesn't mean that Andrew is scum because he isn't.

[Archetype]

please note I am not saying WW should claim, just that maybe we should discuss it. I am not sure yet if I am going to shoot him, just that I want to and I am not sure about the merits of claiming or not claiming in regard to dayvigs....

I think if the person being shot at is pretty sure that the person threatening them is a Dayvig, they should treat it as being at L-1 and asked to claim.

[Witherweaver]

So I'd obviously just claim my actual role, and I don't really have any way of knowing whether it's a powerful one or not. 

I also don't know the significance of being at L-1 and being asked to claim.  How does that influence the decision?  Because if it's a mislynch then you lose an important ability?

[yuma]

I also don't know the significance of being at L-1 and being asked to claim.  How does that influence the decision?  Because if it's a mislynch then you lose an important ability?

It does influence the decision. I am not going to tell you what to claim to get out of being shot, but it does have an influence. But there are certainly roles that would make me find you much townier or much scummier and it would be good to know that info before shooting or lynching.

[Twistedarcher]

At this point I want to shoot WW.

I would like people to discuss whether or not WW should claim.

No. Not until you're at the "I am definitely shooting ww phase".

It sounds like you are at the "I am considering shooting ww phase" at which he should not claim.

[Twistedarcher]

Yuma I will trust you much more once you have shot, right now I don't trust you enough to dictate claiming.

It's totally possible you are scum planning on claiming like d3 compulsive vig, hoping to wreck enough havoc by then and get claims out and then going down d3 and letting you team take it from there. Not likely but possible.

You are probably IC ish, but you are not IC. I do not trust you enough yet to say "I want to shoot ww - ww claim. Once your claim is verified yes, not until them.

I do not mean to be like doubting your claim, but I think that path has the potential to lead to multiple extra claims which we should be wary of as Yuma is not a full IC.

[yuma]

So I am compiling a list of what everyone has said about Andrew's reaction as that seems to be the focus now as no one is really saying that they are lynching him solely for the "slip" despite being the main catalyst for most people voting him. I have an idea of what I am going to find here, but I want to put it out there before I jump to a conclusion... I have removed myself, Andrew and ADK as we aren't voting or intending to vote him.

For reference slip occurs here: at post 187.

1. Archetype - says response is scummy, doesn't elaborate; finds reactions scummy, no elaboration
3. XerxesPraelor - Andrew too "self-aware; says that Andrew wanted to know how to react and carefully combing posts
4. xeiron - undefined scummy feeling on andrew
5. faust - says reaction to being called out is scummy, doesn't elaborate; elaborates, but really I think goes in with an attitude of thinking he is scum and twists and manipulates posts to make them scummy, specifically saying he is "not responding rationally, appeals to emotion, make the case sound weaker than it is, and forces an end to the discussion"; says how Andrew should have reacted if town
6. Twistedarcher - calling it too calm; can't elaborate; posts are saying hte same things over and over again;
7. Witherweaver - finally chimes in with an opinion and says that he went back and that Andrew was overly defensive from the beginning; answering Andrew's questions, basically saying "but it feels to me like people have been explaining and that you're just hanging onto the "nobody has a reason" defense." which I think hasn't been true through out as I have outlined many people who just said "andrew is reacting scummy" left it at that and then only answered when pressed or didn't answer at all; [url=http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9962.msg360796#msg360796]further answers to questions saying "So maybe it would be  more accurate to call it a "nobody has a valid reason" or "nobody can explain their reason" argument"
8. shraeye - found andrew's reaction to thinking scum must be on his wagon scummy This is actually one area that I do agree with!
9. sudgy - says he is fighting a lynch more here than in Adventure time; says he overreacted, played different than in AdTime; similar play to DWI
12. Jimmmmm - as far as I can tell no specific talk about reactions
13. ashersky - doesn't like his reaction because he never tried to clarify... something I believe I have shown to be false a few posts after this I won't reference, but basically saying that Andrew never used the magic words that ashersky was looking for that apparently would have stopped him from being a scum read?


So what do i get from all of this, some interesting stuff....

1. andrew's reactions are being called all sorts of things: overthetop, incredulous, fake, frustrated, emotional, too calm, reactionary, selfaware, not "how I would have done it" etc, etc.
2. There is a legitimate case for Andrew getting frustrated. Nearly all of the early votes were accompanied with little to no explanation just... "he is acting scummy." This I think explains the aggressive, reactionary and frustrating posts that he provides
3. which then are interpreted as him scrambling or being scummy for being frusrated because people aren't fully answering his questions.
4. I do think that for the most part at this point people have answered his questions, but are continuing to harp on him for things that simply aren't true thus compounding the frustrations for him.

really for me, what I see here is a lynch mob. And someone trying to face down that lynch mob as best he can and getting extremely frustrated in the process. Frustration isn't a scumtell. People say it is. But it isn't. It is a losing tell. Andrew thinks he is going to lose this argument and he probably is going to (he might not lose the game, but no one wants to be lynched day1 in any game, let alone a cool RMM one) so yeah... he is going to react poorly to this. I don't buy the comparison to DWI... we lynched you sudgy because the reason wasn't poor. It was solid. Your reaction to it had very little to do with it ultimately...

I really don't expect this post to have a great effect.

It left me with scum reads on WW, faust, sudgy and Archetype. I consistently have scum reads on those last 3, so those are tempered a bit. Possibly scum reads on TA and Jimmmm, but not nearly as much.

[yuma]

You are probably IC ish, but you are not IC. I do not trust you enough yet to say "I want to shoot ww - ww claim. Once your claim is verified yes, not until them.

I do not mean to be like doubting your claim, but I think that path has the potential to lead to multiple extra claims which we should be wary of as Yuma is not a full IC.

I am not trying to dictate claiming, this is why I asked town to discuss it before anything happened or before a claim was requested.... I don't know what the best course of action is.

But I feel the best course of action is that the person I anticipate shooting should be the one to request a chance to claim, just like if they were at L-1 with intent to hammer (I think arch said that?)

But right now I have not stated intent to shoot WW, just that I currently am leaning that way.

[Twistedarcher]

Yeah that's totally cool. Do you get where I'm coming from though? I am not tryin to discredit you I just want to be careful that you don't somehow get like 3 claims on the off chance you actually are scum.

[Witherweaver]

So I am compiling a list of what everyone has said about Andrew's reaction as that seems to be the focus now as no one is really saying that they are lynching him solely for the "slip" despite being the main catalyst for most people voting him. I have an idea of what I am going to find here, but I want to put it out there before I jump to a conclusion... I have removed myself, Andrew and ADK as we aren't voting or intending to vote him.

For reference slip occurs here: at post 187.

1. Archetype - says response is scummy, doesn't elaborate; finds reactions scummy, no elaboration
3. XerxesPraelor - Andrew too "self-aware; says that Andrew wanted to know how to react and carefully combing posts
4. xeiron - undefined scummy feeling on andrew
5. faust - says reaction to being called out is scummy, doesn't elaborate; elaborates, but really I think goes in with an attitude of thinking he is scum and twists and manipulates posts to make them scummy, specifically saying he is "not responding rationally, appeals to emotion, make the case sound weaker than it is, and forces an end to the discussion"; says how Andrew should have reacted if town
6. Twistedarcher - calling it too calm; can't elaborate; posts are saying hte same things over and over again;
7. Witherweaver - finally chimes in with an opinion and says that he went back and that Andrew was overly defensive from the beginning; answering Andrew's questions, basically saying "but it feels to me like people have been explaining and that you're just hanging onto the "nobody has a reason" defense." which I think hasn't been true through out as I have outlined many people who just said "andrew is reacting scummy" left it at that and then only answered when pressed or didn't answer at all; [url=http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9962.msg360796#msg360796]further answers to questions saying "So maybe it would be  more accurate to call it a "nobody has a valid reason" or "nobody can explain their reason" argument"
8. shraeye - found andrew's reaction to thinking scum must be on his wagon scummy This is actually one area that I do agree with!
9. sudgy - says he is fighting a lynch more here than in Adventure time; says he overreacted, played different than in AdTime; similar play to DWI
12. Jimmmmm - as far as I can tell no specific talk about reactions
13. ashersky - doesn't like his reaction because he never tried to clarify... something I believe I have shown to be false a few posts after this I won't reference, but basically saying that Andrew never used the magic words that ashersky was looking for that apparently would have stopped him from being a scum read?


So what do i get from all of this, some interesting stuff....

1. andrew's reactions are being called all sorts of things: overthetop, incredulous, fake, frustrated, emotional, too calm, reactionary, selfaware, not "how I would have done it" etc, etc.
2. There is a legitimate case for Andrew getting frustrated. Nearly all of the early votes were accompanied with little to no explanation just... "he is acting scummy." This I think explains the aggressive, reactionary and frustrating posts that he provides
3. which then are interpreted as him scrambling or being scummy for being frusrated because people aren't fully answering his questions.
4. I do think that for the most part at this point people have answered his questions, but are continuing to harp on him for things that simply aren't true thus compounding the frustrations for him.

really for me, what I see here is a lynch mob. And someone trying to face down that lynch mob as best he can and getting extremely frustrated in the process. Frustration isn't a scumtell. People say it is. But it isn't. It is a losing tell. Andrew thinks he is going to lose this argument and he probably is going to (he might not lose the game, but no one wants to be lynched day1 in any game, let alone a cool RMM one) so yeah... he is going to react poorly to this. I don't buy the comparison to DWI... we lynched you sudgy because the reason wasn't poor. It was solid. Your reaction to it had very little to do with it ultimately...

I really don't expect this post to have a great effect.

It left me with scum reads on WW, faust, sudgy and Archetype. I consistently have scum reads on those last 3, so those are tempered a bit. Possibly scum reads on TA and Jimmmm, but not nearly as much.

That wasn't when I finally chimed in.. I initially responded to Ash saying that I had assumed it was a standard setup thing.  Then I asked a question of ADK, and he responded.  Then I posted saying that I wasn't sure about it and had to reread.  Then I went back and forth with Andrewis a few times.  And the main point I picked up on there was that his tone and response seemed the same when he only had one or two votes against him (when there was no reason to worry) as when he had five (when worrying is more justified).  I read this as being overly defensive.  I know you disagree with that.. you think he just quickly got frustrated because the accusation was unjustified and everyone was jumping on board with it and no one was listening.  But anyway, that's how I interpreted it.  I went thought some more about it and went back at the initial posts, and it was at that point that I made my vote.

I think out of all the people that voted against Andrewis, I was the one that took enough time to think about it and ask a lot of back and forth questions, and I answered the questions Andrewis had for me.

[shraeye]

  I regularly disappear for 1-2 days at a time.

I am just going to jump in here for quick suggestion. Perhaps use the VLA page if you know in advance that you are going to disappear. Doing that will alleviate the suspicion that some people will automatically have about you not being around. If you don't use the VLA we don't know where you are? If you do, then we do. Obviously this only works if you know in advance, which I don't know if that was the case here or not. The VLA is there to clear up precisely this sort of confusion.

I hear what you're saying, but my time often disappears without any warning.

I also see what you're saying about Andrew, but I'm more sold on the original slip than many people.  Plus a few things that he's said since then.  Like the post where he said none of our reasons are convincing.  But I can see a narrative where he's just legitimately frustrated at how people are treating this.  My read is a bit tempered thinking about that narrative, but I'd probably still lynch Andrew.

I think faust is a very good place to look, and I'm not sure why Wither gets your nod for the person worth dayvigging.  I think faust/ash would be better targets.  What are your thoughts on ash?  It seems that a lot of people have not posted stuff directly about him, despite the fact that he's at the center of this Andrew-business and all.

[AndrewisFTTW]

I think ash is town. If I get lynched I'll flip town and if ash is scum, he knows this. It doesn't make sense to push this so hard with that knowledge. Of course, it could be so obvious that it's not but that's getting a little bold.

[shraeye]

I think ash is town. If I get lynched I'll flip town and if ash is scum, he knows this. It doesn't make sense to push this so hard with that knowledge. Of course, it could be so obvious that it's not but that's getting a little bold.

ash is VERY bold as scum.

[AndrewisFTTW]

What do you guys think is more likely?

1) I'm scum and ash is scum
2) I'm scum and ash is town
3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

Show your work!

[Witherweaver]

What do you guys think is more likely?

1) I'm scum and ash is scum
2) I'm scum and ash is town
3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

Show your work!

I proposed (1) way back and no one responded to it.  Well admittedly I didn't think it was likely, but the thought occurred to me.

[sudgy]

What do you guys think is more likely?

1) I'm scum and ash is scum
2) I'm scum and ash is town
3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

Show your work!

I think 2 because of reasons I've stated earlier.

[mail-mi]

Vote Count 1.6:

Jimmmm (1): xeiron
sudgy (1): Jimmmmm
AndrewisFTTW (4): Twistedarcher, XerxesPraelor, faust, Witherweaver
A Drowned Kernel (1): Archetype
Twistedarcher (1): AndrewisFTTW
Witherweaver (1): yuma

Not voting (4): A Drowned Kernel, sudgy, shraeye, ashersky

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch..

Day 1 ends April 3 at 8 PM forum time (mail-mi won't be home at that time, but no more votes will be accepted after that time. Jorbles may be around and will try to get online asap if it comes right down to deadline.)

[yuma]

I think out of all the people that voted against Andrewis, I was the one that took enough time to think about it and ask a lot of back and forth questions, and I answered the questions Andrewis had for me.

I understand that and as frustrating as this will be for you it makes you scummier. I hate that our f.ds meta has come this way, but it has. Because scum is more likely to pretend to be thorough because they know their actions are going to be under the microscope (or think they will be) and want to make sure everything looks "normal" whereas town just reacts.

But honestly this isn't enough for me to want to vig you. It just makes me suspicious. But I am someone who doesn't vig unless I am pretty sure.

I am not compulsive for Day1 and I don't think I will be shooting today barring something coming up that makes me want to.

I still think Andrew is not the best lynch. I think WW might be worth lynching (I am not willing to shoot him however) and there may be better options among faust, sudgy and arch but I have a known bias towards all three being scummy. And I consistently think that no-lynching is a better option in RMM games than normal games, so that might be an option but I anticipate getting a lot of negative backlash against that idea so I doubt it will go through.

[yuma]

3) I'm town and ash is scum
4) I'm town and ash is town

I can't currently separate the above two. If you asked me to give a gut read I wouldn't be able to do so...

[Witherweaver]

What are the advantages to not lynching today?  Is the setup that everyone has a power role, so there are no vanilla townies?  So if we do mislynch, we're guaranteed to lose an ability?

[ashersky]

And I consistently think that no-lynching is a better option in RMM games than normal games, so that might be an option but I anticipate getting a lot of negative backlash against that idea so I doubt it will go through.

From a role/setup standpoint, you are generally correct about the merits of a no-lynch in RMM.  From a gameplay/scumhunting standpoint, though, I don't think it's in our best interest.

The flip gives us a very important first data point against which we can compare everything else.  We don't have a reference for anything anyone's said yet.  That first flip gives us that.

Plus, we don't know how much power scum has at night; it could outweigh anything we think we're gaining by no lynching.