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[yuma]

In other words, I was thinking a Mafia result should be delivered immediately whereas a Town result might better be held until later in the day.

I disagree with this premise completely. I feel the complete opposite about it. I think a mafia result should be held--see Jimmm's use of it in Chocolate factory that I think if town had better analyzed the info that came because of it would have been somewhat indicative of teproc's and voltaire's alignment--whereas reads on someone who is town are rather meaningless

That said, I know see that you have claimed.

I believe the claim. Well I guess I should qualify that. I don't think that scum would at this point fake claim their partner to be town. So I strongly, emphatically believe that TA is town. I still think PPS is town, but not because of his claim. In fact his claim makes me find him somewhat scummier than before, but certainly not enough to lynch.

I strongly oppose what faust is suggesting here. STRONGLY! we don't lynch for information. especially when such information is a 1 for 1 trade and when that information is already very strongly implied! If you think PPS is scum, vote for him, but be prepared to explain why and document it. but do not vote for him just to get information. Because in my eyes... we already have the information.

I am not going to go around telling people who to target, but I think a far, far better way to do this, instead of lynching PPS, is to have him be a potential cop target tonight.

1. if he is targeted we learned he is town and that TA is town 100% at the same time.
2. if he is NKed... yes we lose that cop data (from whoever copped him), but we learn that TA is town 100% of the time and we don't lose a cop from a different night as scum targeted PPS and not another cop.
3. if he is scum, he is outed and we can then decide what to do with TA... He is probably still town, but at least we can think about it.

Again, I am not saying that cops should 100% target PPS, but I do think they should at least strongly consider it, WIFOM to the mafia... make them decide whether or not to kill him... or to kill elsewhere.

I am more suspicious of chairs now. Faust I am not sure about as this sort of thinking seems rather extreme for town. I know there were others that reacted strangely in regard to this claim, but can't exactly remember who they were.

[yuma]

Yuma, why does the fact that the Eevee/Ahoppy wagons didn't go D1 make you not want to revisit them? Isn't a scum wagon more likely to stall than a town wagon, especially one that just stopped at 4 votes like the Eevee wagon? Which wagon is more likely to stall at 4 votes...a scum wagon, which only has 10 town members to push it up (assuming no bussing), or a town wagon, which has 12 scum/town members to push it up? I don't follow why the fact that the wagons didn't happen D1 makes them less likely to be scum.

It is psychological. I purely admit that. It is something I have discussed before with Robz specifically and others. But in my mind... those lynch attempts were already tried and town rejected them (well town and scum, I do try to keep that in mind). So it is hard to get the motivation to be behind something that at least right now appears to be the same as the day1 case when the day1 case didn't get them lynched. Nothing has changed in the case really... I mean maybe a bit, but for the most part it seems the same... So if it wasn't good enough then? Why would it be good enough now? For me to get "excited" about that lynch something has to change it from not good enough to good enough now.

That is my thinking. I don't say it is good thinking, but that is how I approach it.

[yuma]

Chairs, Faust: Do you think that PPS is scum? Yes/no

Maybe.  If I were scum this game, and I wanted to get a Town member on my side, one thing I would definitely consider is claiming Cop.  I could also see this being a really clever scum ploy where he clears you, and you guys slide through on the excuse that PPS is just a VT now and you're an IC so probably doctored.  So in my mind, there's three possibilities:

PPS is town + TA is town = lynching PPS generates IC TA.
PPS is scum + TA is town = lynching PPS lynches scum.
PPS is scum + TA is scum = lynching PPS lynches scum.

I'm weighting the first two possibilities equally and the third possibility as somewhat lower.  I still feel like this is a solid lynch choice.

I think this is where the logic fails. I think that scum is so unlikely to do option 3 (like extremely unlikely in my opinion on day2 because if TA ever flips (or if we start to notice that he isn't flipping as an IC) for whatever reason PPS is doomed)  that TA is basically a quasi-IC in my estimation right now. So why lynch someone that you don't think is scum to get to a point where we already are?

[yuma]

Yuma always aggressively attacks people suspecting him for bad reasons, that's why he never gets lynched. Not all cases are slam dunk affairs though, I think "came off scummier in the weird exchange with Robz, hasn't seemed towny in his other dealings" is a fine enough reason to vote.

In fact, Vote: yuma and see what happens.

Apparently I missed this before... Can you elaborate on the "came off scummier" part of this post? As well as the "hasn't seemed towny in his other dealings."

[Twistedarcher]

I agree 1000% with everything in #1200.

[yuma]

I agree 1000% with everything in #1200.

Hey! Hey! Hey! That's my post guys!

[yuma]

Ok... I don't have a vote down. I want to put one down and see if that helps move us toward a lynch especially as I don't like the wagon on PPS at all, so obviously I want a lynch that is not that....

Process of elimination time: (I know I already did this, but PPS's claim has changed things a bit...) PPS is out. TA is out. I still think scott is out (although he is one who jumped onto the voting PPS for information wagon), but I'll leave him out for now.

People already know I have a scummy read on Robz, but that apparently isn't happening, so moveon.org

People left: faust, chairs, eevee, archetype, ahoppy, Jimmmm. As mentioned before Jimmmm has read sincere if a little busy to me. I might go back and focus on him if none of these strike me as where I want my vote, but I think looking at the others is the way to go. I am going to try and erase any preconceptions I have about ahoppy and eevee (as well as chairs I think as perhaps I have been holding on too tightly to that early town read on him for forgetting about the game?)

[yuma]

So let's start with chairs... should be an easy read:

- takes a safe approach to the claiming discussion
- has his "forgot about the game moment"
- has suspicion of ahoppy and votes there and his reads list is notably full of "null" reads as well as a scumread on Robz that has a slight mark of doing it because he does it as town... that is I don't really see any reasoning behind it... so it kinda looks like he is just saying it because that is what we would expect from town!chairs?
- has two joke votes on me and ta (not sure if this is significant)
- goes back to Ahoppy despite saying it is not a great lynch (I guess it is day1, but my idea for day1 is that if you aren't on a great lynch, go and find a great lynch...)

Day2:
- weird vote on me with the 90% sure I am scum over Robz... what happened to the scumread on Robz from day1? What changed? And don't just say "gut feeling"
- I guess he didn't vote PPS, said he almost derphammered!?!?! and wants to vote him for info along with some bad logic I think (bad logic isn't scummy, but still isn't my favorite)

So summary: not a lot to work with. The town read I had on him is gone. I don't know if he is the best lynch, but he is a potential one.

[Twistedarcher]

I agree with this PoE.

Out for me: Yuma/Robz (I don't read either as particularly scummy), PPS, Jimmmm, Faust. I'd be ok with lynching Scott, but I don't think that will happen, so I'll leave him out, too.

That leaves me with: Eevee, Ahoppy, Chairs, Archetype. I would not be surprised, and I actually expect, there to be multiple scum in this group. I think this is a pretty similar list to what Yuma has, except that he doesn't share my townread on Faust.

[yuma]

what Yuma has, except that he doesn't share my townread on Faust.

I would to hear why you think he is town (general stuff if you don't have time for specifics) so that I can keep that in mind when I reread him... unless you would rather me give out my thoughts before you do so? Mostly I think it would just make the reread easier for me...

[Twistedarcher]

I'm not going to dig up specific quotes, but I think his play, if he's scum, would be extremely, extremely bold. He has been wrong on theory all game I think, but he's been genuine and really putting himself out there, which I don't know if he would do as scum. But I am happy to listen to why you think he's scum (if you do), and my read is less solid than it was on D1.

[yuma]

Archetype:

- Theory talking
- Votes eevee for being a low poster and then very soon after gives a popsquiz. Interesting to note here that he has eevee listed alonge as "scummy" although he does say that he reread the whole thread. This is a constant reason I find archetype scummy. He says people are scummy w/o giving explanation or reason and I need to make sure I acknowledge it...
- votes for Robz... said it was because he thought Robz was going to vote w/o giving Ahoppy a chance to speak. I don't know if I totally buy that... this is robz we are talking about....
- expressed a strong town read on Ahoppy (again w/o reasons or rationale)
- ends up on the teproc wagon

day2:
- comes out really strong on eevee again... still w/ no explanation. I mean he isn't even saying "I agree with TA's case and am sheeping it..."
- votes for scotty. I think this is where I start seeing some very scummy posts from arch. This is certainly one of them
 - this is another wanting to know Ahoppy's alignment for info purposes
- I found this post odd as well
- This one too! as he basically says that all of them have excuses and reasons for not being scummy... but in the end he is ok to vote for all of them
- And another one! For starters... forgot where we are "vote count wise" but decides to go ahead and vote is not the way to a happy and productive mafia life. Check the vote count! But my main point is how easily he is convinced by Jimmmm's case that PPS is acting so scummy so he can't be scum argument, which I feel is the weakest of all the arguments that Jimmmm made as it has so rarely been successful in the past and is a very dangerous way to play for scum
- I think it is worth nothing that despite the strong scum read on eevee arch has completely abandoned and has never really brought it up again or looked into it like he said he would at the start.

So basically I find a lot of stuff from Arch to be scummy. But I don't trust myself to read Arch. I can't remember the last time I correctly read him... Time Wars I thought he was town/he was mafia. Toy Story I thought he was scum/he was town. LotR2 I thought he was scum/he was town. Pirates2 I thought he was scum/he was town. Oh I do remember the last time... it was Bankers where I thought he was scum and he was!

So I guess what I want is this... for someone(s) to read archetype and let me know if they agree with me or if I am completely off base, perhaps someone who has read arch better than me in the past. Does someone like that exist around these parts?

Until then I am willing, but extremely hesitant to vote for him.

[yuma]

Eevee's turn!

- stays away from theory talk
- votes for TA - because he is making too much sense in the theory talk. I don't know about eevee's theory here that scum is sane and town is radical... because I know I am town and tried to be sane and balanced in my assessment of theory talk. So I think it is kinda of a stretch.
- starts out with an early scum read on me and has been alluding to it over and over again throughout the game (something that I guess I saw at the times, but never really connected together until rereading)
- honestly, he had a really bad day1. He just doesn't suspect anyone except for TA and me (from my pov the two most townie players around)
- this post was an assertion that I believe was false and intended to discredit my vote on him that was never backed up despite my request for it to be so.
- meta section: I do agree somewhat with TA that eevee does feel more like the eevee of scum. It is hard to put a finger on although I think TA does manage to get a finger, but for me to lynch solely off meta I need more than a finger... So I think there might be something here, but I need more...
- joins the teproc wagon more out of self preservation, but notable that he chooses it over the ahoppy wagon.

Day2
- says something is fishy about the robz-yuma argument, but doesn't say what or who
- ends up deciding that Robz was more townie than me
- some stuff--more townie eevee--coming through here in regard to the PPS-Jimmm stuff and Archetype/chairs % stuff...
- here is something that I find compelling. eevee now says as I already pointed out that I came off scummier than robz in our argument. Alone this isn't that important. But together with previous posts and with a lack of other posts explaining it, this makes me question it.
- more stuff that is mixed, won't reference it all...

Here is my thought process (part of my difficultly in analyzing these sort of things is that my read of Robz starts interfering with it, so for this purpose I am going to put Robz at a null read and say he has a decent chance of being town).... Robz and I get into an argument. Eevee comes in and sees an opportunity to get a mislynch out of us. He states without any reason that there is something fishy and that one of us is scummy. He then states that Robz had a townie reaction. Much later he decides that because I came off scummier I should be voted upon. So there is something lacking here! He doesn't try and figure out if it is actually a town vs town fight. He just states that it looks fishy and assumes (or pretends to assume) that there is one scum in it. He then eliminates one player from the group and then leaves me to be the scummy player and votes for me. You see what I am trying to say here? I think this is something scum can do. They can forget about that step in trying to create a mislynch opportunity...


Summary: there is a handful of stuff on either side of the aisle. but what has really raised eevee up in my estimation is what I just outlined above. The missing step in regard to robz and me. I do need to rethink it in terms of Robz... Well maybe that isn't fair. There is a chance I am wrong about Robz... I dont' think I am, but goodness I have been wrong before... so maybe not. But basically I would be willing to vote here for that a number of things I mentioned above.

[Twistedarcher]

I don't know if I should be worried that I agree with everything that Yuma writes..I THINK you are town, but you could just be doing a great job buddying me.

[yuma]

I guess Ahoppy and faust will have to wait until tomorrow, along with my vote.

[Robz888]

I don't know if I should be worried that I agree with everything that Yuma writes..I THINK you are town, but you could just be doing a great job buddying me.

I don't think you should be worried. I also agree with everything yuma just said, and I didn't have a town read on him, as you well know.

[Twistedarcher]

I don't know if I should be worried that I agree with everything that Yuma writes..I THINK you are town, but you could just be doing a great job buddying me.

I don't think you should be worried. I also agree with everything yuma just said, and I didn't have a town read on him, as you well know.

Do you agree with the reads on Archetype/ Eevee?

[Robz888]

I completely agree with the read on Archetype. And how yuma feels about Archetype is the same way I feel about him. When I'm town, I'm always wrong about his alignment (and when I'm scum, I see him as a great mislynch). So I've developed a natural hesitance toward lynching him.

Eevee... I guess, well, that's not what I've thought about Eevee but I could see it being the way yuma puts. I've found Eevee very townie on Day 1, and of course I'm more inclined to seeing him agreeing with me in my argument with yuma as townie of him. But, you know, I could definitely see it being the way yuma says. Early reads are always wrong, and mine are no better than anyone else's.

Let me put it this way... yuma frames Eevee's actions in a scum narrative that makes complete sense to me. It didn't occur to me, and I didn't know if it's right, but it makes sense.

[faust]

Scott, same question -- do you think PPS is mafia?

We aren't at a point where we can afford a mislynch just to make 1 IC. Once again, 2 dead town is not worth 1 IC.

It completely misses the point to paint this as "trade two dead town for 1 IC". I mean, it's in no way certain that we'll hit scum if we don't lynch pps. And if we don't, we traded two dead townies and one extra power for nothing. And how is it even certain that pps is a mislynch? If we're just going to give TA and pps a free pass, then this could be the most successful scum gambit ever.

Just judging by the reactions it caused, I am more inclined to believe that pps is scum right now.

[faust]

I am not going to go around telling people who to target, but I think a far, far better way to do this, instead of lynching PPS, is to have him be a potential cop target tonight.

1. if he is targeted we learned he is town and that TA is town 100% at the same time.
2. if he is NKed... yes we lose that cop data (from whoever copped him), but we learn that TA is town 100% of the time and we don't lose a cop from a different night as scum targeted PPS and not another cop.
3. if he is scum, he is outed and we can then decide what to do with TA... He is probably still town, but at least we can think about it.

Now that is a decent idea, but at the moment, we are two Cops down. It's easily possible that we don't get another investigation result. And if we don't, and take TA/pps to some LyLo situation because we think they might still get investigated, what then?

[faust]

Now regarding yuma's cases, I think the one on Archetype is stronger than that on Eevee. For one, I can quite well relate to Eevee's post saying there was something fishy going on between yuma/Robz, as I felt the same way. And I don't think the other points brought up makes Eevee scummy enough to be a good lynch target.

I could vote for Robz/Archetype/AHoppy if it turns out that the majority here is against a pps lynch. AHoppy's most recent posts also had a certain scummy feel on them. Maybe I can grasp what exactly that is.

[faust]

As to faust's question, I don't know.  I don't see what makes it more likely that I am scum when I was at L-1 twice.  Perhaps scum didn't want to be the hammer, so they couldn't switch off teproc/not voting (I can't remember who wasn't voting when, but I think there were some not voting).

But why wouldn't scum want to hammer? Not lynching you meant a semi-random lynch at this point, which is dangerous for scum becasue it might end up hitting them, and if it does, there's not enough time to create an alternate wagon.

AHoppy's most recent post is interesting. But a statement like "yeah, you should probably lynch me" just doesn't sit right with me. After all, if he's a PR who still has a shot, why say this? I will keep my vote there for now.

This was not my intention.  I was looking from the collective town's POV: It makes more sense to lynch me that hope to cop me.  The way I see it, we have a pretty good chance of not getting any cop results tomorrow either because our D2 cop is dead, or will be dead in the morning, or because we don't have one at all!  OTOH, killing me enables stronger reads on end of D1 shenanigans, which may be just as successful as one successful cop/doc.  I'm thinking through it logically for the good of the many, and I came to the conclusion that my death could be more helpful than my life.  I'd still rather you didn't kill me, but if it must be done, it must.

The "collective town POV" is really rubbing me the wrong way. If you're town, your POV is fine, no need to put much thought in what the collective would want. It's only as scum that you're trying to figure out what town as a whole might think is good, and for that reason try to take a collective town POV.

[faust]

OK, caught up past that.  I disagree with faust, and I find his jumping to lynching a claimed doctor right away particularly scummy... While sure, the idea looks good on paper, TA makes a very good point saying that if you doubt one of them, then lynch PPS.  I was just beginning to think PPS was looking townier (see my post above) and therefore have no reason to doubt this claim.  I think we can do better than lynching a claimed cop...

P.S. I'm really sorry TA for dismissing your case yesterday, now that I know you are town.  It was good for a D1 case, but I didn't like the missing information and that you didn't qualify in the case that it was missing.

What's that "we can do better than that" thing supposed to mean? Is it now inherently bad to lynch a claimed Cop (who, mind you, isn't even a Cop anymore, he's just a VT)? This followed by buddying the close-to-IC... I think there's scummy stuff going on here.

[scott_pilgrim]

As to faust's question, I don't know.  I don't see what makes it more likely that I am scum when I was at L-1 twice.  Perhaps scum didn't want to be the hammer, so they couldn't switch off teproc/not voting (I can't remember who wasn't voting when, but I think there were some not voting).

But why wouldn't scum want to hammer? Not lynching you meant a semi-random lynch at this point, which is dangerous for scum becasue it might end up hitting them, and if it does, there's not enough time to create an alternate wagon.

AHoppy's most recent post is interesting. But a statement like "yeah, you should probably lynch me" just doesn't sit right with me. After all, if he's a PR who still has a shot, why say this? I will keep my vote there for now.

This was not my intention.  I was looking from the collective town's POV: It makes more sense to lynch me that hope to cop me.  The way I see it, we have a pretty good chance of not getting any cop results tomorrow either because our D2 cop is dead, or will be dead in the morning, or because we don't have one at all!  OTOH, killing me enables stronger reads on end of D1 shenanigans, which may be just as successful as one successful cop/doc.  I'm thinking through it logically for the good of the many, and I came to the conclusion that my death could be more helpful than my life.  I'd still rather you didn't kill me, but if it must be done, it must.

The "collective town POV" is really rubbing me the wrong way. If you're town, your POV is fine, no need to put much thought in what the collective would want. It's only as scum that you're trying to figure out what town as a whole might think is good, and for that reason try to take a collective town POV.

The "collective town POV" is distinct from the "AHoppy POV" because the "collective town POV" cannot assume AHoppy is town.

[yuma]

Scott, same question -- do you think PPS is mafia?

We aren't at a point where we can afford a mislynch just to make 1 IC. Once again, 2 dead town is not worth 1 IC.

It completely misses the point to paint this as "trade two dead town for 1 IC". I mean, it's in no way certain that we'll hit scum if we don't lynch pps. And if we don't, we traded two dead townies and one extra power for nothing. And how is it even certain that pps is a mislynch? If we're just going to give TA and pps a free pass, then this could be the most successful scum gambit ever.

It does not completely miss the point. Lynching's whole point is to hit scum... not to get information... especially information that I think we basically already have. Maybe that will help spell this out.

In my opinion TA is 95% town. Because I don't think day2 that mafia would fake claim copping their own partner... too many bad things can happen and screw them over and be down 2 players just like that... day3 or day4 maybe? But now... no.

So for me lynching PPS who for me is a town read isn't worth that 5% difference in knowing TA's alignment. It wouldn't even be worth it if PPS was a null read.

Now if he was a scum read... then sure it would be worth it. the 5% would be a side benefit. But I hardly thing it should be the primary motivation for this... Hence why I think that TA asking if you have a scum read on PPS is imperative.

So, do you have a scum read on him?

Just judging by the reactions it caused, I am more inclined to believe that pps is scum right now.

Or maybe you are just the one in the wrong. Sure it could be a gambit. Cause before you decide that it is a gambit you have to prove to me going back and finding evidence that 1. pps is scum 2. that ta is scum and 3. that they are fake claiming here together. You can't just say, let's lynch PPS to find out. No you have to show that it is highly probable first. You haven't done that. You just automatically voted PPS. Show me that it is probably, then I'll consider it. Until then, I am going to stick with my town read on PPS and town read on TA.