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[Voltaire]

Well yeah, my two likeliest candidates would be Eevee/mail-mi but that's just a "gut re-read" so to speak. Due diligence required, I could still decide you're most likely, but it's not where I'm leaning at all right now.

[mail-mi]

Eevee, mail-mi, what do you think about the "Well, that was fun" post ?

I didn't get any read other than null off of it.

[Twistedarcher]

Vote Count 3.1:

Not Voting (5): Teproc, Voltaire, Yuma, Mail-mi, Eevee

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day 3 ends November 22 at 8:00 p.m.

[yuma]

FYI

I don't want this game to get to the point where it stagnates and dies making today and tomorrow if we have one nearly impossible to remember...

So I am planning on voting Tuesday night. Tuesday is the start of my on week anyways. Hopefully that is enough time for everyone to say what needs to be said. I don't think we need to take the full 7 days

[Eevee]

Yeah,  weekends are often like this I guess..

However, I'm leaving to the airport in 4-5 hours, so I'll try to kick it back up before that with as many thoughts as I can think of.

[Voltaire]

I'm back, like I said I would be, and will post my thoughts and intended vote today.

[Voltaire]

I almost certainly want to lynch mail-mi. I'm still working on a re-read, but right at the start of the game it was all entirely town talking to town (Eevee is the exception in that his alignment is unknown) and the more I think about the game, the more I realize most of the big events turned out to be town-v-town. Which makes me think scum is lurking. Even though I'm honestly not sure at all who would be mail-mi's partner, I'm pretty sure I want to lynch him. I think Eevee would be my second choice, then yuma. This of course is all pending finishing this re-read, but let's get the discussion today kicked off.

[Voltaire]

Yep. Yep. mail-mi/Eevee/yuma, I feel pretty good about that. Yuma and Eevee both seem like plausible partners for mail-mi. Intent to vote mail-mi but not until, like, tomorrow or something (since yuma has also said he will vote then, presumably for me).

[yuma]

Yep. Yep. mail-mi/Eevee/yuma, I feel pretty good about that. Yuma and Eevee both seem like plausible partners for mail-mi. Intent to vote mail-mi but not until, like, tomorrow or something (since yuma has also said he will vote then, presumably for me).

if this is all you can say... then yes i will vote for you. or are you going to delve further into this? You don't necessarily have to I guess... i am not planning on rehashing out cases myself, but i am interested in why you now think mail-mi is scum when before you were much less sure

[Voltaire]

Yep. Yep. mail-mi/Eevee/yuma, I feel pretty good about that. Yuma and Eevee both seem like plausible partners for mail-mi. Intent to vote mail-mi but not until, like, tomorrow or something (since yuma has also said he will vote then, presumably for me).

if this is all you can say... then yes i will vote for you. or are you going to delve further into this? You don't necessarily have to I guess... i am not planning on rehashing out cases myself, but i am interested in why you now think mail-mi is scum when before you were much less sure

Because basically everyone who was talking throughout the game (you excepted) has turned out to be town. I stand by compelling reasons to find Teproc town, they've been stated and hashed out all game. This leads me to believe scum lurked. That would point to mail-mi/Eevee.

mail-mi has the poor voting history and strange statements from today (I'll dig them up in a bit). You had a townier reaction to the end of yesterday, but you could definitely still be scum. Eevee has a bad history with actilurking (from memory), tunneling Walrus, and his response to the end of yesterday. So that's mail-mi/Eevee/you. I'm still re-reading. But as long as I'm not wrong on Teproc, I've got a 67% chance of getting this right today, and I think mail-mi gives me the best shot.

I definitely want to hear your thoughts on everyone else, unless you posted them already. Because if I'm scum I have to have a partner, yuma, so I want your reads on everyone else.

[Voltaire]

The wagon on Robz.. hmmh. First of all, I don't like the attitude of "not having to do anything to make it disappear". But, would Robz be so bold as mafia? I can't say he is a townread for me, but I'd expect mafia to be less controversial in their wording of the critique for the wagon. Just playing more pro-town would have been an easier path for Robz, for sure.

This doesn't make sense coming from Eevee who has played with Robz countless times and knows he would absolutely say that as scum or town.  He could be protecting a scumbuddy or looking for towncred vote: Eevee.

Something to keep note of, for sure.

So, mail-mi, you've kept note of it. What do you think now?

[yuma]

this is a very good point.

I think voltaire/mail-mi is most likely...

followed by mail-mi/eevee...

So maybe the better choice is to vote for mail-mi.

I agree with you in assuming teproc is town. if he is scum we lost this game long ago....

i guess i need to look at volt-eevee more closely... that will be my goal for today

[Eevee]

Like Voltaire's quick first post, this is my feeling on everyone before doing any rereads:

Teproc: If scum it's an ehunt-in-casino-level performance that fooled everyone. On the other hand, we've done absolutely horrendous this far, so scum obviously is fooling us pretty hard. I should reread him to determine if the townread is based on actual gameplay or just being thankful for him subbing and impressed at him being so savvy already, but I just can't fathom him being the likeliest to be scum (even if he is scum, his partner should be easier to find first).

yuma: I always find yuma impossible to read, so I guess he shouldn't be off the table, even if I really don't see a reason to suspect him. Voltaire, mailmi, do you have any ideas as to how scum yuma is different than town yuma? I feel I honestly don't.

mail-mi: alarmbells, alarmbells everywheeeeeere. yuma and teproc, mail-mi and voltaire are my top scum reads, how do you feel about the fact voltaire is advocating his lynch now (saying he is, at least)? would that be a viable distancing strategy for scum, or would they just try to get a mislynch at all costs here? I dont feel good about being convinced off of mailmi yesterday.

voltaire: I definitely feel Voltaire is misrepresenting a bunch of thing today (I'd be more specific if he was). I wish we had just lynched him yesterday.. I don't know what to make of him missing the lynch so narrowly, it's puzzling.

No intent to vote for anyone yet, but this is where I'm coming from to today. I think mail-mi has more viable partners (havent reread, but gut feeling is he could be with absolutely anyone because why not?). Rereading all of Voltaire sounds daunting though, Volt, do you remember any specific interactions between you and someone alive I could look at? Something to prove your towniness?

[Teproc]

Interesting. Aside from Voltaire/yuma, mail-mi/Eevee strikes me as being the least likely scum-team. I believe scum would have made an effort to have at least an active member. Eevee also followed my case on mail-mi when no one was really buying it. I guess it could be a safe way to distance themselves, but it actually generated a lot of talk about mail-mi, even though it didn't go anywhere eventually.

I'll do a post later, but I'm leaning towards voting Voltaire right now.

PPE : haven't read Eevee's post.

[Eevee]

I mean I still think you aren't understanding probabilities if you think that makes no sense.

It's like, someone has a history of being capable of bussing. That means that person shouldn't receive any towncred for pushing for someone who flipped scum? Of course not, Robz has played 50 games, of course there are counterexamples but far and away more often he has played a reasonable, normal style. There has got to be some balancing acts so he wouldn't just be an open book, but even if he is splitting his course of action "80% time I do what helps my faction now, 20% I hurt my faction to throw them off"*, we can still draw conclusions from his actions, even if they aren't definite conclusions.

That does look like mailmi wanting to cast suspicion on me for invalid reasons though. Much like he tried to cast suspicion on yuma today while doing the same thing himself.


*I think Robz does/used to do that as town as well, which I've always disagreed with but is very not relevant here.

[Voltaire]

Here's something I am definitely keeping in mind (and Teproc if you're town you should to): I am the easiest mislynch in the universe right now. Why? Because even though I am town, acknowledging that fact requires us to have driven up wagons on only town players the entire game. The truth requires admitting that this has (so far) been one of the worst towns in recent memory. But that's the situation we're in. It's so "easy" to say "town is never that bad, surely this means Voltaire is scum" and be done with it, but that loses us the game.

I think voltaire/mail-mi is most likely...

followed by mail-mi/eevee...

So maybe the better choice is to vote for mail-mi.

This is what I was trying to do with what got called "bad logic" yesterday, btw. In that if you throw out Eevee/Voltaire you should vote for mail-mi even if he's not your strongest read just because he's POEd into every remaining team.

[Voltaire]

That does look like mailmi wanting to cast suspicion on me for invalid reasons though. Much like he tried to cast suspicion on yuma today while doing the same thing himself.

That's what I was getting at.

[Voltaire]

No intent to vote for anyone yet, but this is where I'm coming from to today. I think mail-mi has more viable partners (havent reread, but gut feeling is he could be with absolutely anyone because why not?). Rereading all of Voltaire sounds daunting though, Volt, do you remember any specific interactions between you and someone alive I could look at? Something to prove your towniness?

I don't have that many posts, just re-read me. You have a crazy number of town flips at this point too.

Also, do you now think I am scummy? I think that's new. Your case on me yesterday was just that I wasn't "creative" but was still pro-town. Actually I feel that this is a big difference.

[Eevee]

Interesting. Aside from Voltaire/yuma, mail-mi/Eevee strikes me as being the least likely scum-team. I believe scum would have made an effort to have at least an active member. Eevee also followed my case on mail-mi when no one was really buying it. I guess it could be a safe way to distance themselves, but it actually generated a lot of talk about mail-mi, even though it didn't go anywhere eventually.

I'll do a post later, but I'm leaning towards voting Voltaire right now.

PPE : haven't read Eevee's post.

i think i was at least as vocal in my attempts of getting mailmi lynched yesterday as you were. no one else wanted anything to do with the lynch, which i still find weeeird and actually evidence of mailmi lynch being good for today - his partner had all the reasons to steer us away from him (that clearly happened, we got steer away of the lynch of a very scummy player and lynched town instead.. this should be especially clear to voltaire if he is town, because he'd know that the other lynchee was to be town as well). i was absolutely trying to push for mailmi as hard as i could until voltaire convinced me that because of meta-reasons, mailmi isnt the best lynch for that day, so thats why i'm confused about voltaire pushing him now. mailmi-voltaire feels like a very plausible scum team, but that one piece doesnt seem to fit (thats why i asked about it earlier). I also disagree with voltaire saying "eevee was tunnelling walrus yesterday", i believe I was on mailmi most of the day and tried to get other people to join me, i did come back to walrus after voltaire himself convinced me that mailmi isnt happening/shouldnt happen. i was on walrus all day 1, but i really wasnt here much of day 1 and i never found anything i found better than my walrus case (day1 that is). i actually think i've dfirted to playing day 1s like that, i was on archetype for pretty much the entire monsterfighting dicerolling jimm-game that got cancelled (i was town, so was archetype). the actilurking accusation is just as false in my opinion, i was probably absent day 1 as i always am, but there was nothing active about it and i think since it got interesting, i've been as active as anyone i think. that reminds me, postcount to follow in next post!

[Voltaire]

Scum certainly busses today if they need to, btw.

[Voltaire]

Eevee, clearly I need to re-read you yesterday - BUT - I don't remember you actually fighting for a mail-mi lynch, I just remember you fighting for him to be considered. That's certainly something scum would do to a partner.

[Voltaire]

vote: EFHW

Here is what I am seeing.... she is taking a somewhat similar stance to what theorel took in the last game. (not a perfect comparison, but I think comparable enough) Starting here...

Well, this is pretty interesting.  It's so early I have no read on Robz.  Everything he has I could him doing as either alignment.  So I don't feel like lynching him, or defending him.  Assuming he would flip town, since that is most likely, what would we have learned about the people voting him?  I'm on phone right now, so I'll try to look at that when I'm on a computer.

middle ground stance, stating that robz isn't scummy or townie, but instead more interested in people on the wagon... (same as theorel about sudgy last game)

last game theorel jumped on nkirbit for voting for sudgy. In this game EFHW is instead jumping on eevee for defending robz...

The wagon on Robz.. hmmh. First of all, I don't like the attitude of "not having to do anything to make it disappear". But, would Robz be so bold as mafia? I can't say he is a townread for me, but I'd expect mafia to be less controversial in their wording of the critique for the wagon. Just playing more pro-town would have been an easier path for Robz, for sure.

This doesn't make sense coming from Eevee who has played with Robz countless times and knows he would absolutely say that as scum or town.  He could be protecting a scumbuddy or looking for towncred vote: Eevee.

Right now I am deliberating between posting this and holding off to see where it goes. Because right now I anticipate that if the wagon on Robz stays at ~ L-1 for a while EFHW will starting defending Robz more and more (assuming of course that Robz is town, something I am actually thinking more and more likely... again another reason to move my vote just because a derphammer is always a possibility...) in the same way that theorel over time expressed a town read on sudgy after starting null on him... and also pressing more on eevee. So is seeing if that case builds worth giving town my read right now. I think it is generally always better to tell town what a fellow townie is thinking than to hold back ideas so I'll go with it.

This EFHW case seems a little constructed. It's basically this: "EHFW is acting like theorel did in that other game, only not exactly. I think she will do this and that in the future, and that would be scummy."

So EFHW has done something which weakly remsembles theorel's behaviour in M32, and you vote for her for something that she hasn't even done yet. In order for this to not look suspicious, you say "it's always better to tell town what you are thinking" which sounds reasonable but is actually false (see the whole secret case stuff in M31). It seems the reason you posted this now is more that you fear that this whole case is going to fall apart if EFHW doesn't do what you expect her to.

Since we now have flips on faust and EFHW, this does make yuma look worse. But it doesn't make him scum.

(pointing this out to make sure I don't get tunnel vision on mail-mi/Eevee, as if yuma is scum I need to make sure I vote for his partner)

[Eevee]

No intent to vote for anyone yet, but this is where I'm coming from to today. I think mail-mi has more viable partners (havent reread, but gut feeling is he could be with absolutely anyone because why not?). Rereading all of Voltaire sounds daunting though, Volt, do you remember any specific interactions between you and someone alive I could look at? Something to prove your towniness?

I don't have that many posts, just re-read me. You have a crazy number of town flips at this point too.

Also, do you now think I am scummy? I think that's new. Your case on me yesterday was just that I wasn't "creative" but was still pro-town. Actually I feel that this is a big difference.

Well walrus's flip changed a lot, but admittedly i now have knee-jerk reaction to you trying to paint me with a scummy brush. i do think it's appropriate though, scum has the incentive to make other people look bad right now. i'm so puzzled about you going after mailmi like that, i'd really like input from teproc and yuma as to what that means to the likelihood of you two being a team.

The way of catching experts like you and yuma is not by "he said this and he wouldnt say that as town!" or "he posted this much and he would do that as town!". It doesn't work that way. You are caught by PoE (and maybe here by analyzing interactions - not only what you did but what you have done in relation to others.

In isolation, no, I don't think you are particularly scummy.. mailmi is definitely leagues scummier. I think teproc is town. I think yuma is townier than you. that leaves just and mailmi...but i really cant get over the fact you now seem to have seen the light about him. how do you explain your change of heart on him by the way? yesterday we had a pretty long argument about you taking him off the lynch pool, and now we have one flip and he is suddenly your top scum read? (i'm actually realizing reasons for the initial feelings i had as i write them.)

[Eevee]

Eevee, clearly I need to re-read you yesterday - BUT - I don't remember you actually fighting for a mail-mi lynch, I just remember you fighting for him to be considered. That's certainly something scum would do to a partner.

I was definitely really trying to get him lynched - first step to that would have been to get other people at least to consider him! At some point you need to move to more viable lynches, you know? But yea, reread it!

[Voltaire]

Well walrus's flip changed a lot, but admittedly i now have knee-jerk reaction to you trying to paint me with a scummy brush. i do think it's appropriate though, scum has the incentive to make other people look bad right now. i'm so puzzled about you going after mailmi like that, i'd really like input from teproc and yuma as to what that means to the likelihood of you two being a team.

The way of catching experts like you and yuma is not by "he said this and he wouldnt say that as town!" or "he posted this much and he would do that as town!". It doesn't work that way. You are caught by PoE (and maybe here by analyzing interactions - not only what you did but what you have done in relation to others.

In isolation, no, I don't think you are particularly scummy.. mailmi is definitely leagues scummier. I think teproc is town. I think yuma is townier than you. that leaves just and mailmi...but i really cant get over the fact you now seem to have seen the light about him. how do you explain your change of heart on him by the way? yesterday we had a pretty long argument about you taking him off the lynch pool, and now we have one flip and he is suddenly your top scum read? (i'm actually realizing reasons for the initial feelings i had as i write them.)

Because now I know Walrus is town, and every single dead player is town. It makes me suspect lurkers, because the top posters (except me and yuma) are all dead. Also because if I assume Teproc is town, the only non-mail-mi team is you and yuma, which is...quite plausible, actually. Would you prefer I voted for you?