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Author Topic: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)  (Read 118530 times)

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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #625 on: November 08, 2013, 12:48:32 am »

That's an interesting idea yuma--like, maybe would it be beneficial to have a row or column claim rather than a full claim? Is that what you're driving at sort of?
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #626 on: November 08, 2013, 01:07:42 am »

nvm, BPT should NOT claim if we have no cop or tracker.  Unless yuma or someone else figures out an out of the box plan.

remind me not to post after midnight.  This scenario is like the BPT claiming right away, except town now more information.  So it's actually slightly better than what I was suggesting, but worse than the outcome Teproc and Voltaire are hoping for. 

I'm starting to think let's not claim and get back to scum-hunting. 

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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #627 on: November 08, 2013, 09:48:09 am »

If there is no tracker and no cop, and there is a BPT, I will still prefer that the BPT claim today.

I am thinking outside the box here....

It might be bad, but let me work through it...

If there is no tracker claim and no cop claim and there is a BPTownie out there then there is certainly a JK.

So maybe what we should do is if no cop claims and no tracker claims we should have one--or maybe both of the other PRs--claim "Power Role" but not specify which one. I say maybe one because...

Ugh... I am confusing myself... let's try again.

If not cop or tracker claims:

6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons

5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons


That means we have one of two setups: Ok... this won't work. Mafia will know the setup if there isn't a cop or tracker claim and if only the JK claims then that would be bad... if there is a JK and a BPT then both could claim, but the JK wouldn't know that so wouldn't claim first so the BPT would have to claim "PR" first so mafia would know that player was the BPT.





I see two problems here :
1) Just because Cop didn't claim, doesn't mean they're not here, since he shouldn't claim if he targeted Robz.
2) Claiming "PR" is way too easy for Mafia to fakeclaim. Like if they claim "PR", the JK can't counterclaim because they might be a BPT, for example.

So far, Eevee is the only one who hasn't weighed on the issue. I agree that we need to move on pretty soon, but I'd like to at least wait for Eevee to post before we do that.
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #628 on: November 08, 2013, 10:08:36 am »

Teproc's point about PR's possibly choosing not to claim does mitigate one problem I think we've neglected so far, which is that if we don't have a cop, a tracker or a BPT, we have given a lot of information to the mafia and gained nothing for ourselves.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #629 on: November 08, 2013, 10:20:36 am »

I've got nothing to add to the claiming discussion. It's honestly just not my strongest suit - I've read all the analysis and if I'm a pr, I've considered whether I want to claim or not carefully
and will do what I see best.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #630 on: November 08, 2013, 10:50:42 am »

That's everyone? Ok then.  :(

Regarding my point that it seemed EFHW "knew" I was town, I was referring to this:

Playing devil's advocate, b/c I am also considering voting Voltaire, how would only voting Robz with a weak case be a scum strategy?

Which honestly I remembered as being much stronger at the time. She of course then went on to vote me. I was thinking she only did that after I seemed a viable mislynch.

unvote

Eevee, what are your thoughts on everyone who isn't Walrus?
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #631 on: November 08, 2013, 06:33:00 pm »

Slow news day...

So what did we get out of this whole claiming discussion anyway? Where do we go from here?

Right now, I'll say that I still maintain my vote on Voltaire. I might like Eevee or mail-mi lynches as well. More hesitation for an EFHW lynch; pretty null on her ATM. yuma still seems towny to me, and my initial impressions of Teproc are towny as well.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #632 on: November 08, 2013, 06:38:16 pm »

So what did we get out of this whole claiming discussion anyway? Where do we go from here?

I think we are at the point where it a cop--with a town or scum result on anyone but Robz--or a tracker--but not saying who they targeted as long as that player didn't target robz--should consider claiming.

all other PRs should stay silent and I think we should be done talking about claiming. If the players claim, they claim. If they don't, they don't and have their reasons for doing so.

i am going to try to put together something on players tonight... but no guarantees...
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #633 on: November 08, 2013, 06:39:03 pm »

That's an interesting idea yuma--like, maybe would it be beneficial to have a row or column claim rather than a full claim? Is that what you're driving at sort of?

That was my idea, but it won't work unfortunately.
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #634 on: November 08, 2013, 06:56:11 pm »

Vote Count 2.3:

Voltaire (2): Yuma, Walrus
Mail-mi (1): Teproc

Not Voting (4): Eevee, mail-mi, EFHW, Voltaire

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends November 13 at 8:00 p.m.

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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #635 on: November 08, 2013, 07:23:09 pm »

I didn't want to give my reads right away because I didn't want to distract from my case on mail-mi, but it hasn't taken off anyway, and then we got into the whole claiming issue, so here they are :

yuma : town read, I do not foresee lynching him today. Already had a town read after D1, and his bringing up the idea of claiming (which I wouldn't have thought much about otherwise) reads town to me

Voltaire : Hard to tell. It occured to me in rereading him day 1 that we appear to think very similarly. His day 1 play is how I imagine I would play day 1. The buddying he's been doing towards me has been a bit worrying to me, but it might because of this. I don't see the case against him from d1 as particularly strong, it seems like people were mostly trying to find someone to lynch after the wagons on Robz, Walrus and chairs had failed, which is why it was so easily and quickly derailed I think. I stand by my slight town read on him, but I could see this changing. Maybe the people voting for him (I'm including EFHW in this) could elaborate on their case, if it has changed at all since day 1 ?

EFHW : see above, slight town.

Eevee : Null. The slight lurking is a problem, but he reads slightly town when he does post, so it kinda evens out.

Walrus : Was my strongest scum read before I saw mail-mi's voting pattern. I'll have to look back to decide, but he's the one I'm most likely to move my vote for

mail-mi : I made my case, and he remains my strongest scum by far.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #636 on: November 08, 2013, 07:24:00 pm »

That last sentence should say strongest scum *read* obviously.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #637 on: November 08, 2013, 07:33:15 pm »

I don't see the case against him from d1 as particularly strong, it seems like people were mostly trying to find someone to lynch after the wagons on Robz, Walrus and chairs had failed, which is why it was so easily and quickly derailed I think. I stand by my slight town read on him, but I could see this changing. Maybe the people voting for him (I'm including EFHW in this) could elaborate on their case, if it has changed at all since day 1 ?

I don't think it fell apart. I think faust did something that many of us saw as extremely scummy and so we moved it there. If faust hadn't done that I think voltaire would have been the lynch and that probably would have been for the best.

Like I said, I'll try to restate my case and add to it, but I just don't have a lot of time to devote to a large project like that, but will come Tuesday when I am off. But I hope to get it done before then...
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #638 on: November 09, 2013, 12:33:42 pm »

1. WalrusMcFishSr - my thoughts are known - a scum read
2. Chairs/Teproc - chairs's outing looked like town frustration (the way it went down), teproc has been playing impressively and quite towny. i disagree with giving yuma town points for soft deadline suggestions, as he does that in every game, but teproc is still a solid town read.
3. Robz888 Killed Night1, Vanilla Townie - rest in peace robz, we will avenge you!
4. Voltaire - hasnt had revolutionary great ideas, has actually blended in surprisingly edgelessly. slight scum read for that (and for all i know thats the best way to catch scumvoltaire.. i'm not sure though.)
5. Yuma - is so hard to read. putting in a lot of effort reads towny on intuational level.
6. EFHW - an enigma? she always seems to avoid my attention for some reason. scummy due to PoE / not doing anything towny-appearing.
7. Mail-Mi - voting history yesteday is the single scummiest thing yet to happen this game. would be very willing to lynch. does anyone recall how town/scum mail-mi has voted in the past? i dont mean not explaining his votes here, i mean plobbing them down to anyone who has a remote chance of getting lynched.
8. Eevee - that's me, town!
9. Faust Lynched Day1, Vanilla Townie - poor faust.
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #639 on: November 09, 2013, 12:46:40 pm »

1. WalrusMcFishSr - my thoughts are known - a scum read
2. Chairs/Teproc - chairs's outing looked like town frustration (the way it went down), teproc has been playing impressively and quite towny. i disagree with giving yuma town points for soft deadline suggestions, as he does that in every game, but teproc is still a solid town read.
3. Robz888 Killed Night1, Vanilla Townie - rest in peace robz, we will avenge you!
4. Voltaire - hasnt had revolutionary great ideas, has actually blended in surprisingly edgelessly. slight scum read for that (and for all i know thats the best way to catch scumvoltaire.. i'm not sure though.)
5. Yuma - is so hard to read. putting in a lot of effort reads towny on intuational level.
6. EFHW - an enigma? she always seems to avoid my attention for some reason. scummy due to PoE / not doing anything towny-appearing.
7. Mail-Mi - voting history yesteday is the single scummiest thing yet to happen this game. would be very willing to lynch. does anyone recall how town/scum mail-mi has voted in the past? i dont mean not explaining his votes here, i mean plobbing them down to anyone who has a remote chance of getting lynched.
8. Eevee - that's me, town!
9. Faust Lynched Day1, Vanilla Townie - poor faust.

vote: Eevee
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #640 on: November 09, 2013, 12:56:12 pm »

Care to elaborate EFHW? Pretty enigmatic if I may say so!
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #641 on: November 09, 2013, 06:29:50 pm »

1. WalrusMcFishSr - my thoughts are known - a scum read
2. Chairs/Teproc - chairs's outing looked like town frustration (the way it went down), teproc has been playing impressively and quite towny. i disagree with giving yuma town points for soft deadline suggestions, as he does that in every game, but teproc is still a solid town read.
3. Robz888 Killed Night1, Vanilla Townie - rest in peace robz, we will avenge you!
4. Voltaire - hasnt had revolutionary great ideas, has actually blended in surprisingly edgelessly. slight scum read for that (and for all i know thats the best way to catch scumvoltaire.. i'm not sure though.)
5. Yuma - is so hard to read. putting in a lot of effort reads towny on intuational level.
6. EFHW - an enigma? she always seems to avoid my attention for some reason. scummy due to PoE / not doing anything towny-appearing.
7. Mail-Mi - voting history yesteday is the single scummiest thing yet to happen this game. would be very willing to lynch. does anyone recall how town/scum mail-mi has voted in the past? i dont mean not explaining his votes here, i mean plobbing them down to anyone who has a remote chance of getting lynched.
8. Eevee - that's me, town!
9. Faust Lynched Day1, Vanilla Townie - poor faust.

vote: Eevee

We are at a stage in the game where votes can't be cast without an explanation. We don't have the time.

Combine that with that I think this is actually something of a scummy vote. It appears to be semi-OMGUS and I just looked back through all of EFHW's posts today and there was nothing about Eevee there, so it must be in regard to this post... vote: EFHW

I am not saying eevee isn't scummy. His major lurking (yes I know part of it was VLA, but the rest was lurking) has him pretty scummy in my eyes, but this post from EFHW really raised the idea of her being scum in my estimation.

I still need to go back and gather some thoughts on Voltaire and now I need to add EFHW to that list I guess...

I take it that since no one has claimed we have a lame setup? That is kinda unfortunate I guess, but we will have to make do...
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #642 on: November 09, 2013, 08:01:12 pm »

ok, ok, I was always going to explain. 

My vote is partly decided impressionistically, but to spell out what am observing:

1. The post feels carefully constructed, with an even balance of scummy and town reads.
2. He doesn't refresh or even remind us of the case on Walrus, just says his scum read continues.
3. chairs didn't out b/c of town frustration, he didn't have time to play the game.
4. "for all i know thats the best way to catch scumvoltaire.. i'm not sure though."  Gratuitous jab and retraction.
5.  Says I haven't done anything towny.  I may not be great at theory, but I've been actively trying to sort out town's best interests,
6.  "rest in peace robz, we will avenge you" and "poor faust".  I know Eevee is a nice guy, but these comments feel a bit staged?

Am I reading too much into this post?  Maybe, but that's how it struck me.
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WalrusMcFishSr

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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #643 on: November 09, 2013, 08:30:44 pm »

No I mostly agree with your points, parts of Eevee's post also came across as weird to me. But so did your unexplained vote.
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #644 on: November 09, 2013, 08:56:55 pm »

ok, ok, I was always going to explain. 

My vote is partly decided impressionistically, but to spell out what am observing:

1. The post feels carefully constructed, with an even balance of scummy and town reads.
2. He doesn't refresh or even remind us of the case on Walrus, just says his scum read continues.
3. chairs didn't out b/c of town frustration, he didn't have time to play the game.
4. "for all i know thats the best way to catch scumvoltaire.. i'm not sure though."  Gratuitous jab and retraction.
5.  Says I haven't done anything towny.  I may not be great at theory, but I've been actively trying to sort out town's best interests,
6.  "rest in peace robz, we will avenge you" and "poor faust".  I know Eevee is a nice guy, but these comments feel a bit staged?

Am I reading too much into this post?  Maybe, but that's how it struck me.
vote: Eevee again. The walrus case was a good one D1, but I don't think it's good for D2, and I don't like how he's pushing it.
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #645 on: November 09, 2013, 09:02:07 pm »

ok, ok, I was always going to explain. 

My vote is partly decided impressionistically, but to spell out what am observing:

1. The post feels carefully constructed, with an even balance of scummy and town reads.
2. He doesn't refresh or even remind us of the case on Walrus, just says his scum read continues.
3. chairs didn't out b/c of town frustration, he didn't have time to play the game.
4. "for all i know thats the best way to catch scumvoltaire.. i'm not sure though."  Gratuitous jab and retraction.
5.  Says I haven't done anything towny.  I may not be great at theory, but I've been actively trying to sort out town's best interests,
6.  "rest in peace robz, we will avenge you" and "poor faust".  I know Eevee is a nice guy, but these comments feel a bit staged?

Am I reading too much into this post?  Maybe, but that's how it struck me.
vote: Eevee again. The walrus case was a good one D1, but I don't think it's good for D2, and I don't like how he's pushing it.

I'll let eevee say what he wants to say about this... but... I think maybe 1/2 of these six points has merit. Are you two basing your votes completely off this one post? What about the other stuff eevee has done this game. To me that is more egregious than anything eevee did in the post you are referencing. And unvote until I can fully look back into EFHW and voltaire.. maybe tonight?
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #646 on: November 09, 2013, 09:32:12 pm »

um, what other stuff has Eevee done?  I only pointed out the new things prompting me to vote for him.  The old reasons still stand - his post on Robz I know most people don't agree with me about, but his lurking, after saying several times he would be more active, and doing very little scumhunting seem to be generally acknowledged.
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #647 on: November 09, 2013, 09:53:53 pm »

Let's start with EFHW:

So I feel like early day1 she was just calling out scummy behavior right and left. Rarely, if at all pointing out town behavior...

Some examples here, here, here, here, here.

She really never has a town read. The closest she gets is saying she doens't want to lynch mail-mi or chairs because of "lack of information."

She sides on the scummier side of the walrus debate.

And then moves a vote to chairs after all...

And is very paranoid about being painted as scummy. Here is an example but there is a whole conversation about this:
I feel like you are looking for reasons to paint me as mafia.  This is the thing I find scummy about your play in this game - It looks like you are systematically trying to weaken my influence and if that is true, it is very, very scummy.

Then there was this where EFHW tries to use AtE to try and get me away from suspecting her. She bases an argument on some things that she had said had happened in prior games... that I had almost anytime she had suspected me I had reacted back with suspicion at her. However, when I went back and checked this statement it proved to be blatantly false as it only happened one time in about 5-6 we have played together. To me this might be more than just misremembering, but scummy AtE to try and manipulate me to take my vote away. I should note that she never, ever responded to me saying that her statement was false and just let the situation float away unaddressed.

This statement reads scummy to me as well:
Now that I understand why I seemed scummy, I would like to officially apologize and request another chance!

Her vote on Robz kinda came out of nowhere and was totally OMGUS. Although Robz's kinda came out of nowhere as well... which she then says was for "a reaction..." yuck. So she says, maybe she realized it looked scummy and needed a way to back out of it?

But really... I dont' think EFHW had a single town read all of day1. Not one. That is 60 posts w/o a townread. This is big I think. I would ask that everyone go back and look at this as well as it is hard to show that here.. .you can't quote something that isn't there...

The closest she gets are these posts:

a null read on Robz

lack of information on mail-mi and chairs, who she later finds scummy

and a null read on robz

Lack of town reads is scummy. In fact EFHW says this herself...
So, do I think yuma is town making the best case he can according to his perceptions, or do I think he is scum and trying to get a mislynch?  His approach to me has felt so scummy.  But I am also noticing his having strong town reads, which in a small game would be risky for scum.  They want any mislynch they can get, and having strong town reads burns bridges. 
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #648 on: November 09, 2013, 09:59:00 pm »

So in summary:

I find EFHW scummy for:

1. having no townreads throughout all of day1.
2. being overly paranoid about being perceived as scummy.
3. using AtE with me and then not responding when I noted that her statement was false.
4. probably more stuff from day2. I haven't gone back and looked at day2 yet. Baby is about to wake up so don't have time.

I still plan on reading voltaire as well... but for now, I feel pretty good about vote: efhw. Seriously guys, just go back and read EFHW. She has zero townreads. That is just... something I can totally see mafia doing unconsciously. In a game of this size it is hard to have town reads as scum, because if they become "obviously town" that is less people for you to mislynch. As a result you have to be on the offensive and get other people to be scummy. I think EFHW went a little too overboard doing this and tried too hard to make everyone else scummy. A pertinent question is to see who she did this the least with... That could be a possible scum buddy. Robz is the player she did it the least with. But he can't be a scumbuddy. I think mail-mi is perhaps the next? Maybe Walrus? She constantly sat on the fence post with him I think... But that is a project for another day or someone else.
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Re: Mafia XXXIV: The Game of Thrones Mafia! (Day 2!!)
« Reply #649 on: November 09, 2013, 10:59:09 pm »

This is the second time yuma has come after me right after I made a case against Eevee.

reply #136

The wagon on Robz.. hmmh. First of all, I don't like the attitude of "not having to do anything to make it disappear". But, would Robz be so bold as mafia? I can't say he is a townread for me, but I'd expect mafia to be less controversial in their wording of the critique for the wagon. Just playing more pro-town would have been an easier path for Robz, for sure.
This doesn't make sense coming from Eevee who has played with Robz countless times and knows he would absolutely say that as scum or town.  He could be protecting a scumbuddy or looking for towncred vote: Eevee.

Replies: 137-143  There is an exchange between me and Eevee, a single-line comment from mail-mi and then:

Reply #144
vote: EFHW

I have more responses to his case that will take more time to pull together.
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