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[faust]

yuma, I don't find you particularly scummy. You're making an effort to lynch me, I will flip town (and you know that if you're scum). As scum, you could just go for an easy mislynch (if you're scum, at least one of Walrus/Robz would have to be town) instead, which would probably look less suspicious. Of course I hear you're a good player, so that doesn't make you obvtown, but still, it pushes you to the townier side in my eyes.

I have answered each of you're points as if it were the only "evidence" you have against me. Now you can of course say to every point "this isn't super strong on its own, but in conjunction with the other points..." But lots of weak points don't necessarily add up to a good one.

Now the wagon on me... it's already late D1, and the wagons on Robz and Walrus don't seem to end in a lynch. Scum needs a viable lynch candidate that isn't them. yuma has been pushing me a long time, and is perceived as a good player and a driving force by town. Agreeing with him will not look too bad, even if he's wrong. I think scum is likely to jump this wagon now, and that makes mail-mi and chairs look quite suspicious.

[yuma]

Now the wagon on me... it's already late D1, and the wagons on Robz and Walrus don't seem to end in a lynch. Scum needs a viable lynch candidate that isn't them. yuma has been pushing me a long time, and is perceived as a good player and a driving force by town. Agreeing with him will not look too bad, even if he's wrong. I think scum is likely to jump this wagon now, and that makes mail-mi and chairs look quite suspicious.

This is a very good point, if you are town. I am very interested in seeing what players who I have townier reads on (robz, walrus and voltaire to an extent think of this case) because it is concerning when the only players agreeing with me are on the scummier side... one seemingly doing so for survival reasons...

[Twistedarcher]

Vote Count 1.7:

Robz888(3) Voltaire, Faust, Walrus
WalrusMcFishSr (1): Eevee
Faust(3): Yuma, mail-mi, Chairs
Chairs (2): Robz888, EFHW

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 ends November 4 at 8:00 p.m.

[chairs]

After reviewing the thread in its entirety, I'm still happy to vote for either of faust or robz.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

I'll be on my phone for most of today.

I like the wagon common element argument. I could be down for either lynch.

You know I've had my suspicions of faust from the beginning. But actually I'm finding his response to this pressure here to be on the townier side.

And then these last couple of posts by chairs do not inspire confidence.

yuma: Maybe we should look at faust and chairs.
chairs: I'd really like to know the case on faust!

...sounds like a dodge to me.

The "lynch mafia not scum" platitude seemed a little out of place.

And just now:

After reviewing the thread in its entirety, I'm still happy to vote for either of faust or robz.

Totally empty. So I think I actually am feeling vote:chairs
more right now.

[EFHW]

Having read yuma's case and followed up all his links, I think points 5 and 6 obviously hold water.  These are both verifiably true and require no spin to agree with.  I think his #4 point also has some validity to it.  yuma's discussion of Walrus was judicious and did not read like spinning to me. 

Point #3 was just false, something I was going to point out also.  #2 is yuma's pet peeve, I don't get much information from it myself.  If he was close to lynch, yes, that would be anti-town.  This seemed like a joke. 

#1 is about spinning.  faust said yuma's case against me was constructed, and I agree.  I happen to also agree with yuma that was worth mentioning, b/c town doesn't want to get hoodwinked by such shenanigans, and pointing this out is a deterrent just in case I am scum.  But I am asserting that getting a scumread on me on that basis is spin on yuma's part and imo certainly merited faust's pointing it out, and he was not the only one.

So, do I think yuma is town making the best case he can according to his perceptions, or do I think he is scum and trying to get a mislynch?  His approach to me has felt so scummy.  But I am also noticing his having strong town reads, which in a small game would be risky for scum.  They want any mislynch they can get, and having strong town reads burns bridges. 

I am going to withhold judgment on yuma.  I am not convinced about faust, and the people voting for faust (mail-mi and chairs) don't seem to be basing their votes on this case at all.  They both seem to prefer to vote impressionistically, meaning they rarely articulate reasons.  I'm sticking with my chairs vote.

[EFHW]

Voltaire do you still hold to your vote on Robz?  That seemed at the time to be more related to a dispute between you than it was related to scummy behavior on his part.  What do you think about the chairs/faust options?

[EFHW]

faust - can you remind me why you are voting for Robz?

[Voltaire]

I don't have time to write any sort of a lengthy post/re-read given new developments until late tomorrow. But I did pop in and caught up on the thread. Short version is that the case on chairs is decent and the one on faust I do not like for D1.

And I still hold to my vote on Robz. I maintain a scummy read on him.

[yuma]

Alright... here is how everyone has stated on faust:

Faust - not going to lynch himself
Walrus - townier read
EFHW - seems to prefer chairs over faust
Voltaire - isn't going to vote for faust
mail-mi - is voting for faust
chairs - is voting for faust
yuma - is voting for faust
Robz - ?
Eevee - ?

We haven't heard from Robz or Eevee yet. The fact that two of my stronger town reads doesn't like the faust case does make me doubt it a bit more, but I do want to hear from the two absentees before considering moving my vote...

In the meantime I will look over chairs a bit more and write something up.

[yuma]

Ok so chairs:

17 posts, I'll do the same thing I did with faust for comparison purposes. 334 posts in this game. First 4 are in the first 100. 3 posts in the second 100. 6 posts in the third and 4 posts in the last 34. So has been very consistent in low posting.... But still lurking.

Expresses a very confident vote 2 days into the game. This I think is interesting and am surprised no one has mentioned it before. How can chairs be "very (oh he says comfortable, not confident, but same thing) comfortable" with only 2 days? Is this a situation of scum feigning unreasonable confidence whereas you would expect town to be much more unsure at this juncture of the game?

Was really tunnel vision on walrus, only posting about him and in regard to him until a vote for Robz that looked more like a policy vote than anything else.... and he later says it is a policy vote.

And then he votes for faust after I lay out a case that basically says I think faust or chairs is scummy. Note that the same thing I said in regard to faust applies to chairs about being on both L-1 wagons...

Interupted by baby... be back later with more?

[yuma]

well looks like there wasn't anything new to say... so to repeat

I should note that it isn't frequent voting that I find scummy in regard to chairs (and faust) but rather that both were specifically on the two L-1 wagons. Yes that can be a byproduct of frequently moving a vote around, but I don't really think that chairs or faust have done that. Rather, as I have said before, I feel that in a game of this size, mafia needs to push the wagons through that they can (they can't sit back and let town do it for them) so they have to join them/create them. If they don't the wagons will die and might reform on mafia. And a day1 lynch basically equals death in games of this size...

I still think I prefer voting for faust over chairs. Both I would say are lurking, but are lurking in different ways. chairs has an explanation for his (his internet) although faust does as well (being a different time zone)... but the difference is that faust was more active early and has dramatically fallen off while chairs has always been low throughout the day.

I am willing to vote for chairs, but I still prefer faust. He is an easier read and my read on him is scum. My read on chairs isn't as clear. But is on the scummy side.

I won't be moving my vote until I hear from Robz and Eevee at the least. I may not move it after that, but certainly not before.

[yuma]

I should mention that Eevee has stated that he found faust to be on the townier side while Robz has stated that he would prefer a chairs lynch (so I imagine he wouldn't be more likely to like a faust lynch over a chairs lynch), but both of these opinions were expressed before I stated my entire case and I wonder if that might change things.

[faust]

faust - can you remind me why you are voting for Robz?

Mostly because of this exchange. Additionally, I don't think this playstyle is helping town much (though this probably doesn't indicate alignment). And I've been scum partners with him in M31, so I was able to perceive his play knowing he is scum through the whole game. This slightly aggressive tone definitely fits the way he would play as scum.

As a last point, we've had lots of player interaction with Robz, so a lynch here will be informative at least.

[chairs]

Ok so chairs:

17 posts, I'll do the same thing I did with faust for comparison purposes. 334 posts in this game. First 4 are in the first 100. 3 posts in the second 100. 6 posts in the third and 4 posts in the last 34. So has been very consistent in low posting.... But still lurking.

Expresses a very confident vote 2 days into the game. This I think is interesting and am surprised no one has mentioned it before. How can chairs be "very (oh he says comfortable, not confident, but same thing) comfortable" with only 2 days? Is this a situation of scum feigning unreasonable confidence whereas you would expect town to be much more unsure at this juncture of the game?

Was really tunnel vision on walrus, only posting about him and in regard to him until a vote for Robz that looked more like a policy vote than anything else.... and he later says it is a policy vote.

And then he votes for faust after I lay out a case that basically says I think faust or chairs is scummy. Note that the same thing I said in regard to faust applies to chairs about being on both L-1 wagons...

Interupted by baby... be back later with more?

I try to always vote with confidence. I'll admit that after the Robz policy vote I've felt a bit lost in this game, unsure whether to trust more in my gut our the consensus. I'm increasingly convinced that I should just go with my gut and damn the majority opinion. vote: walrus

[faust]

Again, chairs' post seems quite scummy. I've started out with a town read on him, but this game has progressed and chairs' latest interactions seem like scum. So I'll happily move my vote there if needed. Still prefer a Robz lynch for now.

[faust]

Also, this is quite the change of mind within only ~16 hours.

After reviewing the thread in its entirety, I'm still happy to vote for either of faust or robz.

I'm increasingly convinced that I should just go with my gut and damn the majority opinion. vote: walrus

So what, you weren't really happy with voting Robz or me, you just said it because it was "the majority opinion"? Then what did you review the thread for?

[yuma]

faust - can you remind me why you are voting for Robz?

Mostly because of this exchange. Additionally, I don't think this playstyle is helping town much (though this probably doesn't indicate alignment). And I've been scum partners with him in M31, so I was able to perceive his play knowing he is scum through the whole game. This slightly aggressive tone definitely fits the way he would play as scum.

As a last point, we've had lots of player interaction with Robz, so a lynch here will be informative at least.

How is the exchange that you are talking about any different from the Robz that we saw in MXXX? In that game he was just as absent day1 as he has been here. There he didn't get quite as much flak about it, yes...

and how is this Robz different from the Robz we saw in Dynasty Warriors where he voted for sudgy and pushed buttons when he didn't have a scum read on him, but was doing it as a gambit.

I don't think you can separate out robz here and those robz's even with your knowledge of him in MC31...

There have been multiple games where he has a slightly aggressive tone day1 as town...

What I am saying is I don't think you can catch robz as scum with meta analysis like you are trying to do here. To catch Robz, the times I have caught robz and seen robz be caught, have been via investigation, PoE, mass claims and analyzing interactions late game. I think everytime Rob has been lynched for a meta case like this he has flipped town. Because when it is a meta case it is a toss up and just because of the nature of the games he is more likely to be town than scum...

So until you can convince me that robz has actually done something scummy (something that honestly is very hard to do day1, but I think could be done under the right scenario) you won't get me to vote for him...

[Robz888]

Sorry I'm a bit behind. Let me read...

[Robz888]

Okay, I read yuma's case on faust. I don't think much of it is all that compelling, although worthwhile things to note about faust surely, except Point 5 about being on both L-1 wagons. Yeah, that I could go for.

I still think I prefer chairs. Faust just seems a lot more active to me than he did as scum in M31, that's really the main thing holding me back on him.

[EFHW]

If chairs doesn't work out, or flips town, I'm noticing that mail-mi also voted for both walrus and Robz, right before his most recent vote for faust.  yuma did as well, but earlier in the game.  He started a Walrus wagon, and put Robz at L-1.  I don't know if he explained that, I would be interested to hear why that was and why he changed his mind.   

[yuma]

If chairs doesn't work out, or flips town, I'm noticing that mail-mi also voted for both walrus and Robz, right before his most recent vote for faust.  yuma did as well, but earlier in the game.  He started a Walrus wagon, and put Robz at L-1.  I don't know if he explained that, I would be interested to hear why that was and why he changed his mind.

I think there is avery big difference between voting for people that eventually get to L-1 and voting for someone toward the end of day to L-1. Big difference. Hence why I find faust and chairs scummy for it, but not as much mail-mi and obviously not myself.

My vote on Walrus was at the very beginning of day. He did something unusual in unvoting for faust... but I felt his response was townier

My vote on Roz was also toward the beginning of day and really was a mix of seeing voltaire bring up a valid point on robz and wanting to see how people would react to me voting him to L-1, especially the people on the wagon.... I generally don't vote for reactions, but at that stage in the game something needed to happen. We were basically doing nothing and needed to get something going. So voting for a person that had an ok chance of being scum to L-1 wasn't a huge concern for me. But since then, I feel that other players have become significantly harder to read while Robz I think has sunk back down to the nuller/townier read that I generally have on him day1.

[yuma]

talking about voting patterns... EFHW has only voted twice the entire day. For eevee and then for chairs. I do tend to find scarce voting to be scummy... see TwistedArcher last game when he only voted for sudgy all day long. But the fact that EFHW was not on either the walrus or robz L-1 wagons (although she vocally supported the Walrus one) somewhat negates that although that is also partially a byproduct of the scarcity of voting by her...

[EFHW]

If chairs doesn't work out, or flips town, I'm noticing that mail-mi also voted for both walrus and Robz, right before his most recent vote for faust.  yuma did as well, but earlier in the game.  He started a Walrus wagon, and put Robz at L-1.  I don't know if he explained that, I would be interested to hear why that was and why he changed his mind.

I think there is avery big difference between voting for people that eventually get to L-1 and voting for someone toward the end of day to L-1. Big difference. Hence why I find faust and chairs scummy for it, but not as much mail-mi and obviously not myself.

My vote on Walrus was at the very beginning of day. He did something unusual in unvoting for faust... but I felt his response was townier

My vote on Roz was also toward the beginning of day and really was a mix of seeing voltaire bring up a valid point on robz and wanting to see how people would react to me voting him to L-1, especially the people on the wagon.... I generally don't vote for reactions, but at that stage in the game something needed to happen. We were basically doing nothing and needed to get something going. So voting for a person that had an ok chance of being scum to L-1 wasn't a huge concern for me. But since then, I feel that other players have become significantly harder to read while Robz I think has sunk back down to the nuller/townier read that I generally have on him day1.

That's what I thought.

[mail-mi]

Ya know what, other than the Robz wagon a little bit, I'm pretty much good with all the wagons right now. Order of preference;

Faust
Chairs
Walrus
(Robz)