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[sudgy]

I would like everyone who thinks Gveo could be scum to present a scum!Gveo narrative that can explain this post.

Not because of the advise that might had came from my partner if I have one.

I think that is a statement that could come from either scum or town.  I know I would say that as scum.  So, that statement itself is null for me.

[liopoil]

I would like everyone who thinks Gveo could be scum to present a scum!Gveo narrative that can explain this post.

Not because of the advise that might had came from my partner if I have one.

easy. Let's look at a bigger part of the post, for context:

And I will try to be more confident today and use less "I am not sure", "unable to feel" etc. Not because of the advise that might had came from my partner if I have one. If my action is really scummy, it is already too late trying to correct myself, I just don't want to continue saying the meaningless "not sure".
There are also more info to work with on D3, allowing me to be more certain.

It's not a statement that particularly points to him being scum, but it is a plausible one for him to say as scum. He's being ready-to-please, but then also pre-explaining potential accusations against him like "so he was warned by his partner!" or "He's trying to correct his scumminess!" These are, by the way, potential reasons for him to decide to stop saying things like this as scum. He wants to conform to what people want him to do (and so to stop being scummy), but wants to explain why it isn't because his partner told him to like eevee suggested. (still also possible for him to say this as eevee's partner though of course).

[Gveoniz]

Is is really beneficial for us to lynch? If we pin one scum today without lynching, the other scum is going to shoot him, while the pinned scum can do a (king making) kill, at worst we are the same as lynching the scum ourselves (or get in to an "interesting" 3 player game), at best we can instant win.
And what if we are wrong and that "scum" is actually town? If we mislynched him we would be in a very bad situation, if we leave him for the scums to shoot, we are a lot better off.

The only problem is whether the scums will actually shoot the "scum" that we "catch".
In my case, all possible scum prefer to kill me to any one else today.
In liopoil's case, some scum would prefer me to him making not lynching, making him a slighter riskier no-lynch.

I personally disagree with the IC and think that we should not lynch today, not because of the odds that Jimmmmm calculated, but because lynch give us no to very small benefits. (depending how we view those 2 Scum, 3P games). If we are absolutely sure that one is scum with those possible scum not agreeing it, then we may lynch it, but no way otherwise.

We should try very hard to find the scums though.

[Gveoniz]

Speaking those "interesting" 3P, 2 Scums games, there are two siturations: 2 scum doc, or 2 scum VT.

If the scum don't know who the town is, this is an interesting game of social deduction.
If the scums know who the town is(true if it is the first case, depends if it is the second):

In the day:
The town will only want no-lynch.
The scums want to lynch each other but they would not get the support from the remaining town.
Day probably end in a not lynch.

At night:
Winner of the game depending scums do at night

		Fire Mafia
		shoot scum	shoot town	shoot no one
Ice	shoot scum	town	ice	ice
Mafia	shoot town	fire	no one	fire
	shoot no one	fire	fire	no one

(the game will repeat if "no one" is the outcome, no one will only win if it happen again)


Ice will always try to shoot fire, therefore fire should also try to shoot Ice, town have a good chance of wining. If the doctor is alive, he can choose to block kills, but it would not help town most of the time.

(I am only doing this because it is interesting and have some little use for us if we get into such game.)

[Voltaire]

We should try very hard to find the scums though.

Please point me to where you have done this today.

[Gveoniz]

We should try very hard to find the scums though.

Please point me to where you have done this today.

If you are taking about a real life day, sorry I didn't.
If you are talking about D4, I did a bit of analysis on the kills, but still not much.

So yes, I didn't do enough, but I am doing some more analysis.

[Gveoniz]

Sudgy: Are you doing the ultimate reread for Eevee? or maybe you do not need to do it since you already know who his partner is?

----------------------------------------------

My suspicion on liopoil being the fire mafia is growing.

1. He have a slight scum read on robz all the time(in fact, the third to forth scummy player), which never change the entire period robz was alive. 

2. Went on to the path of lynching after IC started it (well, it was against him but he try to have me lynched instead), whether a scum lynch or mislynch is more desirable for the fire mafia than ice. And also not great for town, as I mentioned above.

----------------------------------------

Let me re-advocate this, don't lynch anyone quickly today. Even if you lay down such an amazing case that even him have to claim scum and admit everything, there are nearly no advantage for us to lynch him now over letting the scum kill him.

[Voltaire]

I'll be doing a thorough re-read (maybe even a full re-read) today and will come to a final decision on whether I advocate lynching today or not, and who I think the two remaining scum are.

[sudgy]

Sudgy: Are you doing the ultimate reread for Eevee? or maybe you do not need to do it since you already know who his partner is?

If I have time, I will.

[liopoil]

So I think gveoniz is our best lynch, one that we probably should have gone with earlier, but also one that seems to keep sliding under the radar... because of distractions in the form of "do not kill" , arch lurking even more than gveo, and no lynch.


reasons to follow soon, so you can just ignore this for now... just putting my stances out there.

Still interested in these reasons.

So I think gveoniz is our best lynch, one that we probably should have gone with earlier, but also one that seems to keep sliding under the radar... because of distractions in the form of "do not kill" , arch lurking even more than gveo, and no lynch.

reasons to follow soon, so you can just ignore this for now... just putting my stances out there.

Still interested in these reasons.

...you realize I posted that less than 5 minutes ago right?

Yes, it wasn't a "YOU NEVER FULFILLED YOUR PROMISE AARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGH THE IC WILL EAT YOUR SOULFACE" it was a "please do get around to posting them, I want to take them into consideration before a lynch."

heh, well now it's been a  bit more than 5 minutes... please don't eat my soulface?

don't have a lot of time right now... this game's been a bit dead, partially my fault, but really most people are quiet. Anyway, thoughts I can put down right now:

Of the top of my head, without rereading, the reasons I can remember for suspecting Gveoniz are:

- his lurking... and more importantly his posts seem just to post... a lot of them are about things analyzing certain scenarios... ones where he comes to no conclusion/provides insight on what we should do. For instance, his chart of paths the game can take yesterday, and his 3-player game analysis thing today. Neither have a conclusion or help us, contrast to Jimmmmm's probability posts, which at least give us potential answers to what we should do right now.

- the repeating his newness a lot.

- eevee defending him, saying that he thinks Gveo's partner would have warned him about doing that

- robz gave him a newbie pass

- a bit of POE. I think sudgy is town, so all gveoniz needs to do to be my top scumread is be scummier than Jimmmmmm. he is.

[Voltaire]

OK. I'm warming to the idea my reads on all of you are wrong, because I can find reasons to find Jimmmmm, sudgy, and lio townie. So I've done something wrong somewhere.

At this point I want us to either hammer "no lynch" or lynch Gveo. But I now prefer no lynch. It's boring but it's better.

vote: no lynch

Deadline is soon anyway. Let's finish this thing.

[Gveoniz]

I guess I am going to die tonight, so let me add another case to myself:
I have never voted anyone this game, I technically voted twice, one RVS for 2.7 in my first post, and immediately override it with a faust RVS at the end of my first post. then I unvoted as soon as the wagon got serious. And I never vote again, not even a no lynch. I am surprised that no one have ever call me out on that. (Yuma have urged me to put down a vote D3, but didn't put me as scum for not voting).

[Gveoniz]

I can hammer by the way, but I will wait a bit.

[Voltaire]

I guess I am going to die tonight, so let me add another case to myself:
I have never voted anyone this game, I technically voted twice, one RVS for 2.7 in my first post, and immediately override it with a faust RVS at the end of my first post. then I unvoted as soon as the wagon got serious. And I never vote again, not even a no lynch. I am surprised that no one have ever call me out on that. (Yuma have urged me to put down a vote D3, but didn't put me as scum for not voting).

unvote

wut. are you doing/ what are you saying. Explain it with words.

[Gveoniz]

What are you asking? Was my language usage terrible or I have just posted some content that make no sense?

I am just pointing out another "scummy" thing I did which no one have mentioned yet.

[Voltaire]

I am just pointing out another "scummy" thing I did which no one have mentioned yet.

This is exactly what I am talking about (it's crazy). Why are you doing that?

[Gveoniz]

I am tired and suffer from the lack of hope? And that is probably a mistake now I think about it.

Don't take that as a manipulative defense or something similar, I didn't think that would have much influence on the game.

[Gveoniz]

Vote: no lynch
I will leave it for you to hammer, I have to rest now.

[Jimmmmm]

How long until deadline? A bit over a day? I want do some re-reads and try to help scum catch each other, but I'm not sure I'll have time. Huge day today (brother's wedding day) and on a plane to LA tomorrow.

[Voltaire]

How long until deadline? A bit over a day? I want do some re-reads and try to help scum catch each other, but I'm not sure I'll have time. Huge day today (brother's wedding day) and on a plane to LA tomorrow.

Deadline is tomorrow, so you won't have time. mail-mi probably won't be around to lock the thread for awhile. I'm probably going to hammer in the next hour or so.

[Voltaire]

vote: no lynch

That's the hammer. Scum, I hope you like your reads. I have no idea what your best course of action is here. Enjoy the prisoner's dilemma!

[chairs]

Thread locked.  Expect final vote count/etc ASAP.

[chairs]

Two more toys taken down in the dark, but the remaining toys still couldn't decide on who their tormentors were.  They put their hopes in bad knowing bad, and went through another set of batteries without tearing one of their own apart.

Final vote count:
No Lynch (3): Jimmmmm, Voltaire, Gveoniz
Not voting (2): liopoil, sudgy

With 5 alive, it took 3 to lynch.

Night starts now.  I'll let mail-mi sort out night deadline.

[mail-mi]

Deadline is Sunday at 3 pm FT.

[mail-mi]

Deadline in ~ 1 hour!