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[mail-mi]

Flavor and deadline added to OP of the day.

[Jimmmmm]

liopoil, Gveoniz: who would you say your fellow remaining VT is?

[Gveoniz]

Lets look at the night kills, base on the reads a while before the night:

Sudgy thinks that e is scum near the end of D3, scum read on me.
liopoil thinks that yuma is more likely scum: the case, scum read on me.
Jimmmmm scum read on me, e and yuma is slighter higher than the rest: [1] [2]

On the other hand:
2.71828 have his (weak? as he call it himself) case on sudgy.
Yuma have his suspicion on liopoil: [1] [2]

What ever case I make can look like OMGUS, but base on the kills in a straight forward way, sudgy and liopoil is more likely to be scum.

The fact that I am not dead means that Jimmmmm is more likely to be town since I am his top scum, while the other two  have other possible target, explaining why I am not night killed.

-------------------------

Can Jimmmm and/or Voltaire summarize why sudgy is town? I cannot recall it (althought it feel like a common knowledge judging from the way you talk about it) and I currently don't have the time to do any reread.

[Voltaire]

Hey everyone. I'm back. I guess it's good to get my reads validated, but not really.

[Voltaire]

Again assuming that Volt will not protect anyone.

What if I do? Would that be better? I ask only because it seems you've already looked at a lot of the odds.

[Jimmmmm]

Again assuming that Volt will not protect anyone.

What if I do? Would that be better? I ask only because it seems you've already looked at a lot of the odds.

I don't think so. Not unless you have a super confident and correct Town read on someone. If we're no-lynching, the whole point of that is to help scum shoot each other.

[Voltaire]

Homework for everyone: list everyone in order, scum to town. You can combine odds of fire/ice together.

[Jimmmmm]

Gveoniz
liopoil
sudgy

If sudgy is scum then he's Ice. I really don't see him being on Robz' team.

[liopoil]

Okay, back from V/LA. I'll try to put some reads together, though I really am not only not confident in my reads now, but really am unsure how to form them... because how I usually scumhunt clearly didn't work.

[sudgy]

Gveoniz
liopoil
Jimmmmm

Lio and Jim could easily switch, this is just what I would say without thinking.

[Voltaire]

I think I wanna lynch today. I've misplayed this game so badly, I'd rather go down in a blaze of glory with slims odds of success, but in my control. And to everyone else, you have 2/3 odds of lynching scum today so I think this is a very smart gamble to take.

[liopoil]

WHAT?!!?!??

Why the shock?

a) no scum died, so scum failed pretty badly
b) fire mafia didn't shoot voltaire. I thought that they shouldn't, but it seemed to be the consensus that they would
c) YUMA WAS TOWN!! This means that our suspicion of each other was town v. town... which I don't think anyone expected (although nobody but mail-mi and I know that this is the case)

[liopoil]

liopoil, Gveoniz: who would you say your fellow remaining VT is?

I'd guess sudgy probably. To answer voltaire's question:

gveoniz
jimmmm
sudgy
liopoil/voltaire

but this is very subject to change and off the top of my head. I need to reread with a fresh mind, in light of yuma flipping town.

[Jimmmmm]

Done about half a re-read of liopoil, up to the point where Robz and Eevee were killed. Here are the only significant interactions with those two that I could find:

Robz888: Has had skirmishes with voltaire and eevee today, and from my view, lost them both. I thought voltaire had the more compelling reasoning (inb4 "buddying the IC! scumtell!") and that robz's frustration was either an exaggeration or an overreaction. And he backed down from his eevee read, possibly because he may have been scum making it up and realized it was a bad case. However, on the other hand, if he is scum, he should be looking for the other scumteam anyway, so I guess the read was probably legitimate. I also don't like that his only reason for voting faust was the scumslip, unlike everyone else (I think) who had their own reasons. This stuff is not the sort of thing that makes me think, ooo, this is scummy! It's just a bit off. Not against lynching him at all, but there are probably better options.

Eevee: has significantly more posts and content on D2 than he did D1. I think this is either: scum who realized after D1 that he needs to up his contributions (which weren't all that low anyway), or town who suddenly has lots more to talk about! Or maybe null because he just happened to have more time to post now than he did before. But between the town/scum scenarios, I think the town is more likely.

I don't get all that much from either, but for both he leaves the possibility open of them being scum, while concluding that there are better options or they are more likely Town. Based on this I could see liopoil being on either scum team.

[Gveoniz]

Homework for everyone: list everyone in order, scum to town. You can combine odds of fire/ice together.

Liopoil
Sudgy
Jimmmmm
Voltaire
Gveoniz

Liopoil is likely to be Fire.
Sudgy is likely to be Ice.
Jimmmmm is bit more likely to be Ice.

[Voltaire]

Is there anyone who is staunchly opposed to lynching?

[sudgy]

Is there anyone who is staunchly opposed to lynching?

Me!  Because I think it's a lot harder to lynch scum twice in a row than it is to let scum deal with it.

[Jimmmmm]

Is there anyone who is staunchly opposed to lynching?

Me!  Because I think it's a lot harder to lynch scum twice in a row than it is to let scum deal with it.

I agree this. However, I would participate in a Gveo or lio lynch as I think they are the last two scum.

[Voltaire]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

[Jimmmmm]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

Why lio over Gveo?

[Voltaire]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

Why lio over Gveo?

lio's D3 opening was scummy.

Also some of this (updated with yuma/e's flips):

Post count, from start of game to doctor claim

37 ashersky
31 Voltgloss
24 yuma
17 2.7...
14 Voltaire
13 Robz
9 Eevee
8 liopoil
7 faust
5 sudgy
4 Archetype
2 Gveoniz
1 NHS

(Updated) Opinions about whether or not the doctor should claim, prior to my claim:

Claim D1
ashersky
yuma
Voltaire
sudgy
Gveoniz
Eevee (initially anti-claim)
Robz
2.7 (initially anti-claim)

Claim D2
Archetype

Uncertain
Voltgloss
faust (initially pro-claim)

Anti-claim
liopoil

No opinion expressed
NHS

faust (7): sudgy, ashersky, Voltgloss, Robz888, Archetype, liopoil, yuma
sudgy (1): faust
Archetype (2): Voltaire, 2.71828.....

Not Voting (3): Jimmmmm, Eevee, Gveoniz

Gveoniz (1): Jimmmmm,
Archetype (6): 2.71828....., Eevee, Robz888, sudgy, yuma, liopoil
Robz888 (1): Voltaire
2.71828..... (1): Archetype

Not Voting (1): Gveoniz

mail-mi please change the thread title.

[Voltaire]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

Why lio over Gveo?

If you're scum, someone spent a ton of time without a partner. Sudgy I'm still clearing because whatever. lio fits "scum had to help out with the lynches somehow". I actually think you may be the other scum.

[Voltaire]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

Why lio over Gveo?

If you're scum, someone spent a ton of time without a partner. Sudgy I'm still clearing because whatever. lio fits "scum had to help out with the lynches somehow". I actually think you may be the other scum.

No, no I don't. I think it's Gveo and lio.

[Jimmmmm]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

Why lio over Gveo?

If you're scum, someone spent a ton of time without a partner. Sudgy I'm still clearing because whatever. lio fits "scum had to help out with the lynches somehow". I actually think you may be the other scum.

No, no I don't. I think it's Gveo and lio.

If you're dead set on lynching I'll support you in it. Statistically we have a better chance if we no-lynch, but if we're more confident in our reads than in probability then lynching is the way to go. I am reasonably confident that it's Gveo and lio.

Would you like me to vote now or wait until more has been said?

[Voltaire]

vote: liopoil.

I'm sorry if this is wrong, town, but I feel good enough about it. If the rest of the town can convince one scum to vote no-lynch (or deadline out), the two town of you out there don't have to follow me on this, and I understand if you don't.

Why lio over Gveo?

If you're scum, someone spent a ton of time without a partner. Sudgy I'm still clearing because whatever. lio fits "scum had to help out with the lynches somehow". I actually think you may be the other scum.

No, no I don't. I think it's Gveo and lio.

If you're dead set on lynching I'll support you in it. Statistically we have a better chance if we no-lynch, but if we're more confident in our reads than in probability then lynching is the way to go. I am reasonably confident that it's Gveo and lio.

Would you like me to vote now or wait until more has been said?

I'm leaning strongly town on you because I just don't see scum putting forth the effort you did today. There's a town narrative for you, same for sudgy. And you two are the ones that spoke up anyway.

If you vote, one scum will totally be willing to quickhammer even if we're right and are lynching another scum. I guess I want lio to have time to give a defense?