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[sudgy]

So, why e is scum.  It's mainly based on Robz being scum.

That is all the content that Robz has contributed to the discussion.  I know Robz is a good player and am sure he has something to say on the doctor issue himself, but it is safer to agree with another player and let that player take the glory/fall D1.  I realize the game has only been going for about 16 hours, and there is plenty of time left "today" but for now I am content with my vote until we get at least a walk-through of why robz agrees with Ashersky's 4 points or something.

(I also know from following GoT Mafia some before this started that Robz was comfortably able to deal with the early wagon there and these early wagons rarely go anywhere since they are not based on a whole lot)

First, he give Robz a scumread for something that shouldn't have a scumread, then, after it:

This also means I have been convinced of Robz opinion on the matter, and have no more grounds for my current vote.  Unvote

This is the classic "buss the teammate with no risk" ploy.  You shouldn't vote someone for disagreeing with you, and he randomly unvotes later.

Robz is correct that I unvoted him earlier when I joined the crew calling for the doctor reveal.  The portion of my vote that wasn't based on RVS (or really just a great opportunity for a movie quote) fell through when I joined that crew, so I thought it only fair that i recall my vote

He really feels like he needs to justify his vote...

Want to lynch (first): Archetype
Also want to lynch: Faust, Yuma, Sudgy
Wouldn't mind lynching: liopoil
I'll wait until D2 to consider lynching: Robz, Eevee, Voltgloss, Gveoniz, Ashersky, NHS's replacement
Won't lynch: Voltaire

Here he says he'll wait until D2 to consider lynching Robz...  Good place for a scumbuddy.

I have a town read on Robz based on his D1 play....

...

...(confident with those in italics-the ones I am comfortable with their placement I underlined)
5 VT (2.7, Sudgy, Robz, Gveoniz, Eevee), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams (Yuma, Archetype, Jimmmmm, liopoil)

Put into quiz format:
Want to Lynch: Archetype
Wouldn't mind lynching: Yuma
Wouldn't shed a tear over lynching: Sudgy, Eevee, Jimmmm, liopoil
Want to wait for D3 to decide: Robz, Gveoniz
Won't lynch: 2.7, Voltaire

I recognize this list is a little ambitious as well as being a little unscientific (read gut-feeling) but we need to start with something.

He is "comfortable" putting Robz as town, and pushes him back until D3.  The pushing back is the biggest thing in the post, scum can easily say, "I won't worry about my partner until later..."

What Robz said...

Buddying the scum...

Points 1 and 2 I can't really comment on.  I don't have the experience to know Eevee's meta (or anyone's for that matter)
Points 3 and 4 are convincing though.  A good response from Eevee is in order, I think.

And sheeping him...

Voltaire, sure I am rocketing up your scum ladder, but is it because I am backing up people that you have targeted?  Well, let me support Robz some more...

And defending him...

Not much else, and I have to go.  The main thing is his buddying with Robz, when he hasn't really done it with anybody else.

[2.71828.....]

So, why e is scum.  It's mainly based on Robz being scum.

Ok.  I will try to be thorough in my defense.

That is all the content that Robz has contributed to the discussion.  I know Robz is a good player and am sure he has something to say on the doctor issue himself, but it is safer to agree with another player and let that player take the glory/fall D1.  I realize the game has only been going for about 16 hours, and there is plenty of time left "today" but for now I am content with my vote until we get at least a walk-through of why robz agrees with Ashersky's 4 points or something.

(I also know from following GoT Mafia some before this started that Robz was comfortably able to deal with the early wagon there and these early wagons rarely go anywhere since they are not based on a whole lot)

First, he give Robz a scumread for something that shouldn't have a scumread, then, after it:

A "scumread for something that shouldn't have a scumread."  Interesting.  Did I ever say "I think Robz is scum because he posted this."  No.  You would have quoted that as well.  You are assuming my vote was because I thought Robz was scum.  So what was your reason for joining my wagon there?  Putting it at L-2?  Pressure you say?  I tend to believe you.  Now what do you think my vote was for?  Pressure.  I worded it differently by saying "I know Robz...has something to say on the doctor issue, but it is safer to agree with another player."  I was pressuring Robz to share some solid opinions about the doctor before making dramatic (even if joking) statements.  Here is a quote you missed that explains this a little more:

Explanations from Voltgloss and sudgy still needed then. And Voltgloss's is more of an update as he had a reason to start with.

You don't even ask for my reason?  (I guess using Star Wars to frame a vote does kind of make it RVS) but still....

Yes, I was able to puzzle out a reason from your post. I would maintain that Robz is wrong that all scum will oppose Doctor claiming, not that Robz himself is scum. What makes you see it differently?

I don't see Robz as scum specifically, but I there is not a whole lot of content to his posts, and I just want a little more reasoning behind his absolute claim.  If it were purely for lack of discussion I would have voted liopoil, archetype, sudgy, gveoniz, or NHS since they have a combined 9 posts, but Robz made such a bold claim that I want to hear more from him, rather than his agreement with others

This also means I have been convinced of Robz opinion on the matter, and have no more grounds for my current vote.  Unvote

This is the classic "buss the teammate with no risk" ploy.  You shouldn't vote someone for disagreeing with you, and he randomly unvotes later.

Bussing a teammate with no risk could definitely be in play here.  The unvote was because I felt like Robz had appropriately responded to my "pressure" vote.  At least I didn't unvote with my very next post (18 posts in between).  I waited for Robz to fully respond (92 posts in between)

Robz is correct that I unvoted him earlier when I joined the crew calling for the doctor reveal.  The portion of my vote that wasn't based on RVS (or really just a great opportunity for a movie quote) fell through when I joined that crew, so I thought it only fair that i recall my vote

He really feels like he needs to justify his vote...

Yes.  I went over again the reasons that I unvoted.  Specifically, Robz had fully given his position concerning the doctor, I was now on board with the doctor claim, I have no more grounds for a vote on him.

Want to lynch (first): Archetype
Also want to lynch: Faust, Yuma, Sudgy
Wouldn't mind lynching: liopoil
I'll wait until D2 to consider lynching: Robz, Eevee, Voltgloss, Gveoniz, Ashersky, NHS's replacement
Won't lynch: Voltaire

Here he says he'll wait until D2 to consider lynching Robz...  Good place for a scumbuddy.

Yes it is.  And a good place for all my other scumbuddies Eevee, Voltgloss, Gveo, Ashersky, and HeWhoBecameJimmmmmm

I have a town read on Robz based on his D1 play....

...

...(confident with those in italics-the ones I am comfortable with their placement I underlined)
5 VT (2.7, Sudgy, Robz, Gveoniz, Eevee), 1 Doc (Voltaire), and 4 scum on two different teams (Yuma, Archetype, Jimmmmm, liopoil)

Put into quiz format:
Want to Lynch: Archetype
Wouldn't mind lynching: Yuma
Wouldn't shed a tear over lynching: Sudgy, Eevee, Jimmmm, liopoil
Want to wait for D3 to decide: Robz, Gveoniz
Won't lynch: 2.7, Voltaire

I recognize this list is a little ambitious as well as being a little unscientific (read gut-feeling) but we need to start with something.

He is "comfortable" putting Robz as town, and pushes him back until D3.  The pushing back is the biggest thing in the post, scum can easily say, "I won't worry about my partner until later..."

Yes.  Again a comfortable place for my scumbuddy.  But those are basically my reads from D1 carried over to D2. (posted just a couple hours after the start of D2)  The only thing that changed from the last reads I had posted about pushing Robz to D2 was losing faust and wanting to lynch you less.  This post was probably a mistake on my part when I look back on it.  Posting reads after basically no time has elapsed to begin D2 was not the best.  Now, I did put Robz in a little better spot than other people, and probably because I was feeling the same frustration that he had with Voltaire about rage voting.  Which I will cover next

What Robz said...

Buddying the scum...

Ok.  This quote refers to my agreeing with Robz about Voltaire's behavior at the beginning of D2.  I still hold to that.  I will still defend Robz for that even after he is known as scum.  Now, I would not do it the same way that Robz did (Robz did aggravate the situation somewhat) and while Robz motive may have been to discredit the IC, mine was always an effort to push the IC back toward a helpful position for town.  Let me finish the quote:

Voltaire, you are supposed to be leading us, and having narrow-minded focus on a rage-vote (sure there are other reasons but it really, really looks to be 70% rage-vote) is not good for town.  Before you try to continue on about why this is more like 25% rage vote, let me remind you about some of the things you said:

I have ABCD statements from: Voltgloss, faust, 2.7, Gveoniz, Robz, sudgy, and Eevee.

I still need them from: liopoil, Archetype, ashersky, Yuma, NHSederholm

Spoiler alert: I'd like us to lynch a lurker. Freakin' post, people.

I'm leaving now. Let the record show that I currently lean towards thinking both sudgy and faust are town (agree with yuma). Make of that what you will.

1) You agreed with yuma, and believe what you will about yuma's claim that he misread this (from yuma's reaction to everything I really do believe yuma on this.  It also makes me begin to lean much more on yuma being town) but the thing is, before yuma hammered, you weren't against him, you were even beginning to vouch for him and his ideas. 
2) Voting yuma also goes against your initial thoughts to lynch a lurker.

Reviewing these points makes me believe that your vote is actually more like 90% rage-vote.  Rage-voting is never good for town, and while I trust you are the doctor, your posts are causing me to not trust your lead

I was trying to show Voltaire that he could not maintain his vote on Yuma while successfully leading town.  I really appreciate the way Voltaire has led us today.  He has stayed away from making scum accusations, made some town reads, and led the discussion in a positive direction.  Just like the IC is supposed to do.

Points 1 and 2 I can't really comment on.  I don't have the experience to know Eevee's meta (or anyone's for that matter)
Points 3 and 4 are convincing though.  A good response from Eevee is in order, I think.

And sheeping him...

Basically, yes.  You can call it that.  I explain my reason for "jumping on the case" here in my response to Eevee.  (point 1)

Voltaire, sure I am rocketing up your scum ladder, but is it because I am backing up people that you have targeted?  Well, let me support Robz some more...

And defending him...

Read: trying to get Voltaire to see past yuma.  The great thing about this is that everyone knows that I am not yuma's partner, so all those posts that were clearly more about getting Voltaire off a yuma rage vote than anything else don't point toward a yuma/e scumteam.  The reason I am defending Robz, and only Robz, is because we were the only two people to mention anything negative about the rage vote.  No one else said anything.  Eevee was probably pretty happy when voltaire posted that he was stuck on yuma the rest of D2.  Only Voltaire can actually say what finally caused him to come off the yuma vote, but that was my entire intent with the posts where I come out and "defending" Robz.

Not much else, and I have to go.  The main thing is his buddying with Robz, when he hasn't really done it with anybody else.

I haven't necessarily buddied anyone else.  Except to support Eevee in saying that Star Wars was RVS.  And except for pushing Voltaire to get off yuma.  But other than that, no.  I have not buddied anyone else.

[2.71828.....]

Well, I hope to see you all D4 (or most of you all).  Looking forward to having some good stuff to discuss. 

[mail-mi]

~ 1.5 more hours til deadline!

Considering night length, I will not be opening the thread in Thanksgiving. I will try to get to it on Friday, but I'll be away from home and may not have a computer. If I do, I'll open it Friday morning. If not, it will be Saturday after I get home.

[Voltaire]

I will not be at a computer before we time out.

I think yuma is more likely to be town, but literally the most dangerous situation we could be facing if he is scum.
I think e is the super-tempting mislynch scum will work for because scum DOES need to keep mislynching to win this game.
I think sudgy is town (see elsewhere).
I think lio is fairly likely to be scum.
I think the final scum is Gveo/Jimmmmm and unfortunately it's kinda hard to tell them apart (from that point of view).

[liopoil]

two non-comital reads here about lipoil and gveo:

Of our lurkers... NHS isn't actually a lurker, just someone who probably needs to be replaced.

Archetype is very often mislynched, and pretty lurky is town.

Sudgy is lurking and fits some scum criteria for me, so cool.

As for liopoil, I have no idea what liopoil's meta is, except I think I've seen him lurk as town but try to have good content, sort of like theorel but less extreme. Do the vets agree/disagree with me here?

Gveoniz is just getting into the game I think and I try not to lynch newbies on Day 1 without exceptionally strong reasons.

Others have mentioned this quote as well:

I'm pretty sure we'll find more scum OFF the faust wagon, but I need to know exactly who was on the damn wagon in the first place.

which I think from a point of view points more toward players on the wagon (so that would be liopoil of the people still alive that I haven't already eliminated)

and toward the end of day he says this:

Vote: Archetype

Will also vote for Gveoniz. Liopoil and Jimm have done enough to avoid the lurker lynch, at which point I would need like other reasons to lynch them, and I don't have any.

If Archetype is scum, I think Eevee is suspicious. I know Eevee is voting for Arch, but I feel like he keeps trying to subtly push things in a different direction. Like just now when he said, okay doesn't matter which lurker, let's do the one Voltaire thinks (even though we all mostly prefer Arch), and then tried to find Jimm scummy for something that even he doesn't really think is scummy.

which I think puts gveo more on the less likely to be partners side... Maybe. Maybe robz is setting himself to potentially hammer gveo is the lynch gets to that point... But he does give liopoil a safety net and I already talked about how I dont think robz would have started a wagon on partner jimmm....

Everything here is a point against me and some other player... Robz didn't commit to a read on me OR gveoniz... he said we should look at those OFF wagon, which doesn't include most players, including me... he said that both Jimmmmmm and I had said enough to avoid a lurker lynch... all of these comments are pretty non-specific.

This post is pretty much the only reason I've seen so far to suspect me. The case on me amounts to this, and POE I think, as far as I've seen. Voltaire has repeatedly expressed suspicion on me, and I still don't think he's said why, although I may have missed it... Yuma suspects me because he eliminated everyone else. If yuma is town, there are TWO non-yuma scum, so he should know that he must be wrong about at least one of the players he thinks isn't scum. I just think this is really weak.

And so I'm confused how people can not think that Yuma is more suspicious than me...  I made a case that had at least 10 or so points... all of which as far as I can tell are valid. And nobody except yuma and E has said anything regarding the case... have people read it? and E didn't really even say anything regarding it, he stayed neutral.....

[liopoil]

I am not expecting anything like an auto-yuma lynch tomorrow... I am expecting people to really really really consider lynching yuma tomorrow, and only lynch someone else if they have a good reason to believe they are more likely to be scum than yuma... and make sure that the reasons I gave for suspecting him are not forgotten like they were in mean girls. And it's because of this that I want people to comment on it now so I can explain it further for after my likely death tonight.

[yuma]

Everything here is a point against me and some other player... Robz didn't commit to a read on me OR gveoniz... he said we should look at those OFF wagon, which doesn't include most players, including me... he said that both Jimmmmmm and I had said enough to avoid a lurker lynch... all of these comments are pretty non-specific.

This post is pretty much the only reason I've seen so far to suspect me. The case on me amounts to this, and POE I think, as far as I've seen. Voltaire has repeatedly expressed suspicion on me, and I still don't think he's said why, although I may have missed it... Yuma suspects me because he eliminated everyone else. If yuma is town, there are TWO non-yuma scum, so he should know that he must be wrong about at least one of the players he thinks isn't scum. I just think this is really weak.

And so I'm confused how people can not think that Yuma is more suspicious than me...  I made a case that had at least 10 or so points... all of which as far as I can tell are valid. And nobody except yuma and E has said anything regarding the case... have people read it? and E didn't really even say anything regarding it, he stayed neutral.....

First... all your points aren't valid. Already stated that many weren't.

I never said that everyone but you must be town. No. Never said that. I do think you are the most likely to be scum. I have a town read on sudgy... that is the only strong townread that I have. Jimmmm/Gveo/2.7 all have mixed results, but you are the one that I think fits the bill for both slots for scum

And lastly... not all cases (even good cases at that) result in mislynches. I feel that the best case I have ever created was on town last game on EFHW... I thought for certain that she was scum, I had found some points that I thought were exceptional... but ignored many of the signs that she was in fact town. I think what voltaire is likely doing--and maybe the others--is weighing my behavior and activity and posts and reads against your case (which may or may not be good, I can't really tell as I am obviously biased) and ending up with null reads...

My case on you might not be super strong in terms of pages and pages and pages and posts and posts and posts... but I don't have the time to put that together... but I think when people weight my points along with the points that they have put together and then their reads, it isn't surprising that they find you more scummy than me.

[yuma]

I am not expecting anything like an auto-yuma lynch tomorrow... I am expecting people to really really really consider lynching yuma tomorrow, and only lynch someone else if they have a good reason to believe they are more likely to be scum than yuma... and make sure that the reasons I gave for suspecting him are not forgotten like they were in mean girls. And it's because of this that I want people to comment on it now so I can explain it further for after my likely death tonight.

huh... kinda looks like you are saying that though:

we should no lynch anyway, HOWEVER! If I die tonight (and flip town of course), and yuma does not die, pleasepleaseplease lynch him tomorrow.

And yes I know that in the next few sentences you say, look at the case... but really none of this is relevant. Because if you are scum no one is going to take your case seriously because you are scum.... and if you are town... well like I said, if you do convince town to lynch me then we will have 2 town kills and we both lose. I think you are wayyyy too confident about me being scum to the point that I think it makes you more suspicious.

[sudgy]

e, most of your countering to my case is admitting that it can come from scum (granted, you did have a few real points).

[mail-mi]

6 minutes to deadline!

[yuma]

6 minutes to deadline!

FLIP! FLIP! FLIP!

....

oh yeah....

[2.71828.....]

6 minutes to deadline!

I know. I saw 6 minutes, then realized that was an hour and a half ago....

[mail-mi]

THREAD LOCKED!

The toys after a whole day of just discussion, decided that it was wisest not to kill anyone.

"I hope your plan works." Woody unscrewed the back of the flashlight and took the batteries out himself.

NIGHT 3 START!

Considering night length, I will not be opening the thread in Thanksgiving. I will try to get to it on Friday, but I'll be away from home and may not have a computer. If I do, I'll open it Friday morning. If not, it will be Saturday after I get home.

[mail-mi]

Woody had kept the batteries safe during the night so the remaining bad toys. After a nice nap, he got up and put the batteries in. The flashlight turned on, the beam pointing directly toward 2 dead bodies.

Yuma, aka Buzz Lightyear, fue quemado en la noche! Él era un pueblerino vainilla!

2.71828....., aka Wheezy, was frozen in the night! He was a Vanilla Townie

Thread unlocked!

Day 4 start!

Day 4 will end Saturnday, December 7th at 4:30 pm FT.

[liopoil]

WHAT?!!?!??

[sudgy]

Alright, that was unexpected.  We're basically in the same position as yesterday but much worse.

Should we lynch today?  If we do we're toast unless mafia kills each other, and if we don't we might still have a chance (if one mafia kills the other and the other kills a townie is still okay).

[Jimmmmm]

Well at least we still have Volt. So we have 2 scum in:

liopoil
sudgy
Gveoniz
Jimmmmm

I'm thinking sudgy is most likely the other Townie.

[Gveoniz]

Every possible scum today have scum read on me but none of them shoot me?

Unless:
1.they worried that the kill would be blocked by doctor.
which would mean they should have try harder to convince Voltaire that I am not town or that doctor should not block. (But I don't remember they did.)

2. they are afraid that the kill woulds cancel out.
if they are afraid that the other scum also think that I am scum, they actually do not think that I am scum.
or if I am the other scum, I can shoot myself. ( or can I? )

--------------------------------

Alright, that was unexpected.  We're basically in the same position as yesterday but much worse.

Should we lynch today?  If we do we're toast unless mafia kills each other, and if we don't we might still have a chance (if one mafia kills the other and the other kills a townie is still okay).

I think we should not waste too much time theory talking today, those two who try to encourage us to scum hunt yesterday are now dead town. And we also have some new information to be analysed.

By the way, do the "toast" have any significance?

[sudgy]

--------------------------------

Alright, that was unexpected.  We're basically in the same position as yesterday but much worse.

Should we lynch today?  If we do we're toast unless mafia kills each other, and if we don't we might still have a chance (if one mafia kills the other and the other kills a townie is still okay).

I think we should not waste too much time theory talking today, those two who try to encourage us to scum hunt yesterday are now dead town. And we also have some new information to be analysed.

By the way, do the "toast" have any significance?

No, toast doesn't have any significance.  And that's not theory talk, that's an actual concern.  We definitely want to scumhunt too, but whether we lynch or not today is a pretty big decision.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay here we go again.

Again assuming that Volt will not protect anyone.

Firstly assume that Fire will kill Volt Tonight and otherwise both scum will scumhunt.

1 IC, 2 VT, 2 scum

Lynch VT (1/2): LOSE* (total = 1/2)

Lynch scum (1/2): 1 IC, 2 VT, 1 scum => 2 VT, 1 scum

• Lynch VT (2/3): LOSE (total = 1/2*2/3 = 1/3)
• Lynch scum (1/3): WIN (total = 1/2*1/3 = 1/6)

No-lynch: 1 IC, 2 VT, 2 scum

• Ice kills VT (2/3): 1 VT, 2 scum => no-lynch**
• 1 VT dies, 1 scum dies (1/2): LOSE (total = 2/3*1/2 = 1/3)
• 2 scum die (1/4): WIN (total = 2/3*1/4 = 1/6)
• Nobody dies (1/4): LOSE*** (total = 2/3*1/4 = 1/6)
• Ice kills Fire (1/3): 2 VT, 1 scum
• Lynch VT (2/3): LOSE (total = 1/3*2/3 = 2/9)
• Lynch scum (1/3): WIN (total = 1/3*1/3 = 1/9)

So if we lynch:
Pr(WIN) = 1/6 ~ 16.7%
Pr(LOSE) = 1/2 + 1/3 = 5/6 ~ 83.3%

If we no-lynch:
Pr(WIN) = 1/6 + 1/9 = (3+2)/18 = 5/18 ~ 27.8%
Pr(LOSE) = 1/3 + 1/6 + 2/9 = (6+3+4)/18 ~ 72.2%




Now assume that both scum will scumhunt ahead of killing Volt.

1 IC, 2 VT, 2 scum

Lynch VT (1/2): 1 IC, 1 VT, 2 scum

• 1 VT dies, 1 scum dies (1/2): LOSE (total = 1/2*1/2 = 1/4)
• 2 scum die (1/4): WIN (total = 1/2*1/4 = 1/8)
• Nobody dies (1/4): 1 IC, 1 KVT, 2 scum => no-lynch => WIN**** (total = 1/2*1/4 = 1/8)

Lynch scum (1/2): 1 IC, 2 VT, 1 scum => 2 VT, 1 scum

• Lynch VT (2/3): LOSE (total = 1/2*2/3 = 1/3)
• Lynch scum (1/3): WIN (total = 1/2*1/3 = 1/6)

No-lynch: 1 IC, 2 VT, 2 scum

• 2 VTs die (2/9): LOSE*** (total = 2/9)
• 1 VT dies, 1 scum dies (4/9): 1 IC, 1 VT, 1 scum
• Lynch VT (1/2): LOSE (total = 4/9*1/2 = 2/9)
• Lynch scum (1/2): WIN (total = 4/9*1/2 = 2/9)
• 2 scum die (1/9): WIN (total = 1/9)
• Nobody dies (2/9): 1 IC, 1 KVT, 1 VT, 2 scum
• Lynch KVT (1/4): 1 IC, 1 VT, 2 scum
• 1 VT dies, 1 scum dies (1/2): LOSE (total = 2/9*1/4*1/2 = 1/36)
• 2 scum die (1/4): WIN (total = 2/9*1/4*1/4 = 1/72)
• Nobody dies (1/4): 1 IC, 1 KVT, 2 scum => no-lynch => WIN**** (total = 2/9*1/4*1/4 = 1/72)
• Lynch VT (1/4): WIN**** (total = 2/9*1/4 = 1/18)
• Lynch scum (1/2): 1 IC, 2 VT, 1 scum => 2 VT, 1 scum
• Lynch VT (2/3): LOSE (total = 2/9*1/2*2/3 = 2/27)
• Lynch scum (1/3): WIN (total = 2/9*1/2*1/3 = 1/27)
• No-lynch: 1 IC, 1 KVT, 1 VT, 2 scum
• 1 VT dies, 1 scum dies (1/2): 1 IC, 1 VT, 1 scum
• Lynch VT (1/2): LOSE (total = 2/9*1/2*1/2 = 1/18)
• Lynch scum (1/2): WIN (total = 2/9*1/2*1/2 = 1/18)
• 2 scum die (1/4): WIN (total = 2/9*1/4 = 1/18)
• Nobody dies (1/4): 1 IC, 2 KVT, 2 scum => no-lynch => WIN**** (total = 2/9*1/4 = 1/18)

So if we lynch:

Pr(WIN) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/6 = (3+3+4)/24 = 10/24 = 5/12 ~41.7%
Pr(LOSE) = 1/4 + 1/3 = (3+4)/12 = 7/12 ~ 58.3%

If we no-lynch (and no-lynch again if necessary):

Pr(WIN) = 2/9 + 1/9 + 1/18 + 1/18 + 1/18 = (4+2+1+1+1)/18 = 9/18 = 1/2 = 50%
Pr(LOSE) = 2/9 + 2/9 + 1/18 = (4+4+1)/18 = 9/18 = 1/2 = 50%



*Since there will either be only 2 scum or 1 scum and 1 Town remaining.
**I'm assuming that with 1 VT, 2 scum such that scum still don't know who the other scum is that the no-lynch will be allowed to go through, since they will still want the other to think they are Town.
***I'm counting 1 IC or KVT and 2 scum during Day as a loss. Maybe they could convince one of the scum to no-lynch, but given that both scum know who each other are, they know for sure that a no-lynch is a guaranteed loss. Really this could go either way, I'm not sure.
****I'm counting the situation in which both scum know the other at Night as a win, since we're assuming both are scumhunting.

KVT = Known (to scum) VT ie a VT who has been targeted by both scum at once, and has thus survived, and then will no longer be targeted by scum since we're assuming scum will be scumhunting.

So I'm going to go ahead and Vote: no-lynch again.
As boring as this is, I think this gives us the best chance of winning. If no one dies Tonight, we no-lynch again tomorrow.

Now obviously this analysis is meant to be a tool, something we use to help us rather than dictate what we do. If we're super confident that we know who both the scum are, then lynching them Today and Tomorrow will win the game for us without leaving anything to chance. Of course, lynching a Townie Today could very well be an instant loss.

[Jimmmmm]

WHAT?!!?!??

Why the shock?

[sudgy]

WHAT?!!?!??

Why the shock?

I think it was that both yuma and e were town.

[Jimmmmm]

WHAT?!!?!??

Why the shock?

I think it was that both yuma and e were town.

Don't we let people give their own answers?

Do you agree with me that lio and Gveo are the most likely remaining scum?

[sudgy]

WHAT?!!?!??

Why the shock?

I think it was that both yuma and e were town.

Don't we let people give their own answers?

Do you agree with me that lio and Gveo are the most likely remaining scum?

I think Gveo is one of them, but I'm not sure between you and lio.