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[yuma]

I think fire mafia if they want to hit ice mafia should target in this order:

you got it backwards again!

Ugh... strike that, reverse it.

But the point still stands.

If Ice Mafia wants to hit fire mafia I think they should target people in this order
liopoil, gveo, jimmmm, 2.7, sudgy, volt/yuma to have the best chance of hitting fire mafia.

[Voltaire]

Who's up for just lynching lio today? I am seriously considering that notion.

[2.71828.....]

thank you yuma for your reads.  FOS everyone else

All right, I think we will end up doing a no lynch, and it looks like everyone is anti-town this game since no one wants to post reads.  I mean, if everyone but one person posted reads, we might learn something.  But if no one but one person posts reads we don't learn much.  I mean, it could be yuma positioning himself to avoid being NKed since he is fire mafia with Robz and wants to throw suspicion on others, or yuma is ice with Eevee and wants to encourage reads to help himself out in finding scum.  But I doubt that.

Reasons Ice do not want to display their reads clearly:
We deduce more about them based on the NK

Reasons Ice would want to encourage others to give reads but not give them yourself:
Knock off the #1 person on another person's read and blame them the next day for that kill

[2.71828.....]

voltaire, I am happy to do a lynch today.  I think sudgy or liopoil are good candidates.

[2.71828.....]

voltaire, I am happy to do a lynch today.  I think sudgy or liopoil are good candidates.

I keep sudgy there because he still hasn't given us those notes that he promised.  I want to know what he is thinking

[2.71828.....]

Situations that allow town D4 mislynch with the chance of a win remaining.
1. We lynch scum, doctor dies
6. We no lynch.  scum/VT die
9. We no lynch. scum/doctor die

The "interesting" situations:
4. We lynch town.  VT/VT die
5. We lynch town.  VT/Doctor die
7. We no lynch. VT/VT die
8. We no lynch.  VT/Doctor die

The "simple" situations:
2. We lynch town.  scum/VT die
3. We lynch town.  scum/doctor die

Ok.  here are my percentages. 
we lynch someone 3/5 shot that an "interesting" or "another night where we can mislynch and win" happens.
we no lynch.  100% that an "interesting" or "another night where we can mislynch and win" happens.

1. I like interesting games. 
2. I like no lynch better than a lynch. (better chance at interesting game)
3. I think yuma is town.  Liopoil I need you to put your case against yuma out there.  I want to see it.  I want you to convince me that yuma is not town.  (or at least try)
4. I don't have much to think about gveo or jimmmmm.  I ask for reads, and then distract them with my no lynch stuff.  I posted I thought Jimmmm's reaction to Voltaire was towny.  I will affirm that.  Between Jimmmmm and Gveo I think that Gveo is most likely scum.  why?  He has had a lot of people accuse him as scum and has not responded well.  He has basically gotten off the hook because he is new.  Scum who doesn't know how to respond to a case against him?  I think town!gveo would put up a better defense.  (I am not basing this in any way off his previous game, pure gut feeling)
5. Sudgy.  I came out against you D1.  I pick it back up D3.  I understand being busy, but stay awake an extra hour at 3AM to get your thoughts posted like jimmmmm did and I will suspect you less.
6. Liopoil.  The most masterful lurker of the game so far.  come out of the shadows today quite a bit, no longer the lurker.  Got distracted from his reads having fun with simulators.  (I get it, we are playing mafia on the dominionstrategy forum - all my IRL friends accuse me of being a nerd)  I still need your read on Yuma.  I know you think he is scummy, but what makes you think that?  I don't think scum would hammer out of frustration the way yuma did D1.  Scum are the powerful ones.  they control things.  They are not controlled by others.  I want to hear what else you see in his play.

In summary:  Gveo is Fire is Robz.  I disagree with yuma saying that Eevee would not put myself or sudgy in the "scum" category and say Ice is Sudgy

[Voltaire]

In summary:  Gveo is Fire is Robz.  I disagree with yuma saying that Eevee would not put myself or sudgy in the "scum" category and say Ice is Sudgy

All that stuff about lio and you still think he's (more likely) town?

[2.71828.....]

In summary:  Gveo is Fire is Robz.  I disagree with yuma saying that Eevee would not put myself or sudgy in the "scum" category and say Ice is Sudgy

All that stuff about lio and you still think he's (more likely) town?

all right.  I will do a comprehensive reread of sudgy and lio.  (comprehensive might be strong)  Basically, I don't get the same gut feeling about lio as I do sudgy.  Let me look through again and see what I come up with.  I do think it either sudgy or lio are scum, but I don't think it is both of them.  I know you fall on the lio side, I fall on the sudgy side.  my next post will be a lio/sudgy compare/contrast.  (could be a little while)

[Voltaire]

's fine.

I would like everyone to post a list ranking all living players in order of "likeliest to be Robz's partner." Whether we lynch or no-lynch, we want to help Ice mafia tonight. (and if Ice mafia decided to kill town, I'm 99% certain that's against their wincon).

[Jimmmmm]

At this stage I'm thinking:

Gveoniz
2.71828.....
yuma
liopoil
sudgy

[Gveoniz]

A quick one for now, I still do not have enough time to do a through one:

Gveoniz: /

Voltaire: doctor

2.7: Did some scummy things D2  (or rather something that a scum may do), as mention my some other players and me. I still have a slight suspicion on him but not as bad as when I first reading those activities.

Yuma: Quite townie feeling for most thing he did now. There were his hammer D1 and as I mentioned before, the slightly narrow/"not necessary true"(?) argument about sudgy's faust vote.

liopoil and Jimmmmm: I have not find enough things to talk about, they both have the chance of being scums, but I will come back to them later.

Sudgy: Nothing jump out at me apart from those that are extremely obvious (especially those early in the game).His early controversial play is not what I thought a normal town would do, but not enough to said about his alignment. And can some one summaries why sudgy why he is treated as "not scum"? I thought I understood it before I cannot think of any thing about him any more.

--------------------------------------------------------

There are something that I would like to talk about for scums day strategies. I personally think that scums would try to be more in notable at this stage and avoid very active hunt for themselves so they can be more likely to be able to continue to shoot in future night, he make want to keep analysis for themselves they can shoot better at night.
(I realize that I also sort of fall in to my own description by wasting all my time on that chart)

-----------------------------------------------------------

list ranking all living players in order of "likeliest to be Robz's partner

{most likely to least likely}
2.71828
liopoil
Jimmmmm
sudgy
yuma
Voltaire
Gveoniz

--------------------------------------------------------

thank you yuma for your reads.  FOS everyone else

Totally irrelevant to what we should be talking now, but you have FOS the IC 3 times for the same reason now...

[Voltaire]

And can some one summaries why sudgy why he is treated as "not scum"? I thought I understood it before I cannot think of any thing about him any more.

Because that sort of risky, controversial play is how sudgy plays as town. I think it's pretty clear in looking back at his past games. In addition to this, both Robz and Eevee played as though they'd be happy with a sudgy lynch (in re-reading them knowing they are scum).

Though none of this means that sudgy IS town, it means he is pretty darn unlikely to be scum.

Which is why it is really freakin' annoying that he's always "sorry, no time to post."

[sudgy]

voltaire, I am happy to do a lynch today.  I think sudgy or liopoil are good candidates.

I keep sudgy there because he still hasn't given us those notes that he promised.  I want to know what he is thinking

What I'm thinking?  I'm thinking about how I've gotten behind in my schoolwork because I've had to work on my Eagle project which is a lot of work, and my mom is having a huge piano recital this Saturday and is extremely busy, so I've been cooking meals at home recently, and my brother just had appendicitis so I've had to do all the cleanup as well, and Thanksgiving is coming around the corner and I'm going to be doing a bunch of family stuff.

If you want to lynch me for that, it's just stupid.  I really want to get my rereads done, but I haven't had the time.

[Jimmmmm]

Reading Day 1, I don't see how sudgy could be Robz' partner.

[Jimmmmm]

Reading Day 1, I don't see how sudgy could be Robz' partner.

Specifically reading Robz' Day 1.

[2.71828.....]

sudgy: sorry for exacerbating an already busy situation by adding extra pressure where I can see that you have a very full schedule.  As I have indicated here (point 2), I am still all for a no lynch today, and as I do not have the benefit of knowing your meta as some of the other veterans like voltaire I am less ready to give you a pass for the things on D1, etc. 

The point of my pressure was to get your thoughts down today before the no lynch, not after.  D3 ends Tuesday at 7 PM, everyone good with a soft deadline of Tuesday around noon forum time?  I know I have been throwing fingers of suspicion left and right toward people not posting reads, and it sounds like we are getting some.  I think by Tuesday noon everyone will have had time to get thoughts posted.  At least abstracts posted.  And then I say we no lynch.

[2.71828.....]

lio: I am not entirely comfortable with him as town, but I don't see his behavior as scummy either.  My reread didn't really get anything other than the fact that he used to have yuma much more towny than he does right now.  Maybe he thought yuma was the best target today?  I don't know. 

[Jimmmmm]

Okay from the point of view of re-reading Robz, the two main currently living non-Volt people Robz interacted with were sudgy and yuma. As I mentioned, based on this I don't see a Robz/sudgy team very likely at all. A Robz/yuma team seems more likely. Robz called him out a few times for things, calling him scummy without voting for him or really pursuing his lynch, and then ended up leaning "null-town on yuma".

[2.71828.....]

Jimmmm: putting me at the top of his Robz read is interesting since he is the only one to really have me on the top there.  I don't see that as scummy, just as his own opinion.  Scum would find it easier to follow the leader than to break away and make their own course at this point in the game.

[2.71828.....]

Jimmmm: putting me at the top of his Robz read is interesting since he is the only one to really have me on the top there.  I don't see that as scummy, just as his own opinion.  Scum would find it easier to follow the leader than to break away and make their own course at this point in the game.

sorry got confused with gveo.  I am second on his list

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmm: putting me at the top of his Robz read is interesting since he is the only one to really have me on the top there.  I don't see that as scummy, just as his own opinion.  Scum would find it easier to follow the leader than to break away and make their own course at this point in the game.

To be perfectly honest what I posted was not really a final list. At this stage I do believe that Gveoniz > yuma > liopoil > sudgy, I need to look further at you and possibly switch you with yuma. Also, Gveoniz has you at the very top.

[Jimmmmm]

Question for yuma: In the light of this post:

hmmm... hmmm... (there isn't a need to state intent to hammer lio. None at all...)

hammer time. faust is getting lynched anyways, that is pretty obvious. Maybe I am completely wrong about faust. I hate the idea of a player getting lynched two days in a row. But sometimes that is just the way it is.

But he is going to get lynched today. I don't really like it, but that's how it goes, so why prolong the inevitable....

vote: faust

Now at least day2 will be going when I am around a bit more (note... this isn't why I am doing this, but is certainly a small, but very selfish part.

What would you have expected Arch to say before the hammer that would have helped?

[Jimmmmm]

I mean, it had been 18 hours since faust's last post. Surely if you believe it is so important for lynched players to say some final words before the hammer rather than during twilight you would have waiting for faust to do so?

[Voltaire]

I mean, it had been 18 hours since faust's last post. Surely if you believe it is so important for lynched players to say some final words before the hammer rather than during twilight you would have waiting for faust to do so?

So I am coming back around to maybe I should believe myself that yuma is scum this time (did I point out how he is subtly sheeping me? I noticed it a long time ago but forget if I said anything. Last time I thought that I'd caught scum!chairs). Wonder what the odds are lio and yuma are the last two scum.

[Jimmmmm]

I was midway through my re-read on yuma, but now I need to get on a plane. Assuming we're no-lynching, I don't mind terribly when that happens, and if I survive the night I'll continue Tomorrow.