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[sudgy]

I would be fine with a lurker lynch, but would prefer Gveo.

[yuma]

Lynching lurkers is a very safe place for scum to be. Because when we go back and try and figure out why they have the built in answer of "he was lurking so I voted for him"

I think you tend to be overly fearful that if we lynch someone for uncomplicated reasons, the scum who voted for the lynch will give un-analyzable answers.

to an extent yes. But just as an example I take us back to the <i>voltgloss</i> scumslip. Was anyone able to get any information out of that lynch? Shraeye pretended to do, but only got liopoil mislynched for it. Obvious reasons to vote provide obvious reasons to vote and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect scum to give those answers, or for town to give them for that matter, thus making it extremely hard to distinguish town and scum based off that information.

Look, I am not saying we shoulnd't lynch lurkers. We should. But not over well developed cases on active players, nor should we stop trying to build said cases...

[sudgy]

Just a note on scumslips, Arch had one in Bankers, and got lynched for it.

[yuma]

Just a note on scumslips, Arch had one in Bankers, and got lynched for it.

That wasn't a scumslip. It was a lie. BIG difference.

[Robz888]

Lynching lurkers is a very safe place for scum to be. Because when we go back and try and figure out why they have the built in answer of "he was lurking so I voted for him"

I think you tend to be overly fearful that if we lynch someone for uncomplicated reasons, the scum who voted for the lynch will give un-analyzable answers.

to an extent yes. But just as an example I take us back to the <i>voltgloss</i> scumslip. Was anyone able to get any information out of that lynch? Shraeye pretended to do, but only got liopoil mislynched for it. Obvious reasons to vote provide obvious reasons to vote and I don't think it is unreasonable to expect scum to give those answers, or for town to give them for that matter, thus making it extremely hard to distinguish town and scum based off that information.

I think the Voltgloss scum slip lynch is good evidence of what I'm saying, though. We weren't like at some huge loss on Day 2 because of that lynch. And eventually town proceeded to pretty efficiently figure out all the scum and win.

I think we're definitely flailing this Day 2 more than that Day 2, but I don't know that the faust lynch is to blame. We just have a lot of lurking.

I do absolutely agree that a strong-case based lynch would be preferable to a lurker lynch, though.

[Voltaire]

Let's all sheep the dead ashersky and vote: liopoil!

[yuma]

Let's all sheep the dead ashersky and vote: liopoil!

I might join you. But right now I want to hear from Arch and I don't know if we are going to hear anything from him w/o some pressure to do so.

[Robz888]

I'd like to hear from liopoil too.

[yuma]

I'd like to hear from liopoil too.

well yes. But specifically arch has a case on him that hasn't been responded to whereas lio is just facing votes for lurking. So it would be nice to hear from lio, but I don't specifically have anything I want to hear from him except some content. Arch on the other hand... has some major hanging issues.

[Robz888]

My memory is that liopoil actually posts okay content when he does show up. I don't know what Arch has done or said all game.

[liopoil]

back again, planning to post content for-real-this-time.

[yuma]

2 posts in 72 hours isn't enough regardless of the content which wasn't much anyways:

I'm here, caught up. I have reads too. I'll put them all together and stuff hopefully soon.

and

I have time for that too:

town to scum (might change a bit when I actually write stuff up):

liopoil/voltaire
sudgy
e
yuma
gveoniz
jimmmm
robz
eevee
archetype

PPE: see he is back, so let's see it.

[Archetype]

Vote: 2.7 I'm surprised I wasn't voting for him earlier.

Catching up now.

[Archetype]

Ok. It's been awhile since I've checked back here. So there are 4 scum among Robz, liopoil, sudgy, myself, yuma, 2.7, Gveoniz, Eevee, and Jimmmmm. I still think that out of those people, we are likely to find scum amongst Robz, yuma, and 2.7.

2.7: Coming out against me hard early game continues that into D2. He is also not playing like a newbie, which scares me. I think that his partner told him that I'd be an easy lynch to push through. I'd expect a vet to let him know that. Which leads me to...

Robz: I think this is 2.7's most likely partner. He's defended him in the past and has mentioned that "Arch is often mislynch, but I'd still lynch him here". Not quite as strong of a read as I have on 2.7, but this is where I'd look if he is lynched and flips scum.

yuma: The weird early hammer still rubs me the wrong way. Trying the lead the conversation as always, but I'm OK with it since it's breathing some life back into the game.

Still confident with my vote and think that out of the three his lynch would be the most informative and quite likely kill one of the Mafia.

[Robz888]

Ok. It's been awhile since I've checked back here. So there are 4 scum among Robz, liopoil, sudgy, myself, yuma, 2.7, Gveoniz, Eevee, and Jimmmmm. I still think that out of those people, we are likely to find scum amongst Robz, yuma, and 2.7.

2.7: Coming out against me hard early game continues that into D2. He is also not playing like a newbie, which scares me. I think that his partner told him that I'd be an easy lynch to push through. I'd expect a vet to let him know that. Which leads me to...

Robz: I think this is 2.7's most likely partner. He's defended him in the past and has mentioned that "Arch is often mislynch, but I'd still lynch him here". Not quite as strong of a read as I have on 2.7, but this is where I'd look if he is lynched and flips scum.

yuma: The weird early hammer still rubs me the wrong way. Trying the lead the conversation as always, but I'm OK with it since it's breathing some life back into the game.

Still confident with my vote and think that out of the three his lynch would be the most informative and quite likely kill one of the Mafia.

This analysis is completely off-base, but doesn't say much about your alignment.

[yuma]

Ok. It's been awhile since I've checked back here. So there are 4 scum among Robz, liopoil, sudgy, myself, yuma, 2.7, Gveoniz, Eevee, and Jimmmmm. I still think that out of those people, we are likely to find scum amongst Robz, yuma, and 2.7.

I know you talk about the three of us below, but what separates us from the rest of the pack? Or in other words, what makes everyone else less likely to be mafia? You can't just say "these three people are most likely to be scum" and not explain why. Are we connected somehow? have similar traits? Or is it that we are all really active posters and hence high in your memory?

[2.71828.....]

Ok. It's been awhile since I've checked back here. So there are 4 scum among Robz, liopoil, sudgy, myself, yuma, 2.7, Gveoniz, Eevee, and Jimmmmm. I still think that out of those people, we are likely to find scum amongst Robz, yuma, and 2.7.

I know you talk about the three of us below, but what separates us from the rest of the pack? Or in other words, what makes everyone else less likely to be mafia? You can't just say "these three people are most likely to be scum" and not explain why. Are we connected somehow? have similar traits? Or is it that we are all really active posters and hence high in your memory?

I was called out specifically as scummy for doing a similar thing.  Saying that within a given group of 3 players, at least one will be scummy.

E: Well, the timeline, as I see it, for E's day 2 is he does a couple of very scummy things (his arbitrary excluding and including people of different lists and deciding where the scum lies based on his assumptions reeked of scum

I gave my response here and here.  Why is making your list any less scummy than me making mine?

[yuma]

Ok. It's been awhile since I've checked back here. So there are 4 scum among Robz, liopoil, sudgy, myself, yuma, 2.7, Gveoniz, Eevee, and Jimmmmm. I still think that out of those people, we are likely to find scum amongst Robz, yuma, and 2.7.

I know you talk about the three of us below, but what separates us from the rest of the pack? Or in other words, what makes everyone else less likely to be mafia? You can't just say "these three people are most likely to be scum" and not explain why. Are we connected somehow? have similar traits? Or is it that we are all really active posters and hence high in your memory?

I was called out specifically as scummy for doing a similar thing.  Saying that within a given group of 3 players, at least one will be scummy.

E: Well, the timeline, as I see it, for E's day 2 is he does a couple of very scummy things (his arbitrary excluding and including people of different lists and deciding where the scum lies based on his assumptions reeked of scum

I gave my response here and here.  Why is making your list any less scummy than me making mine?

and I already called out both you and arch for doing this a long time ago. At this point I just want him to tell why he has isolated a group of three out... Or why he has excluded the other 7.

[liopoil]

yeah, it isn't enough. I pretty much slacked off, and don't really have much of an excuse. I got a bit unenthusiastic about the game. I'm getting back into it now in this post though, were I'm putting down my thoughts on each player(EDIT: the players I was able to get to ), in (mostly) the same order as the playerlist:

voltaire/liopoil: just putting them here for completions sake.

Robz888: Has had skirmishes with voltaire and eevee today, and from my view, lost them both. I thought voltaire had the more compelling reasoning (inb4 "buddying the IC! scumtell!") and that robz's frustration was either an exaggeration or an overreaction. And he backed down from his eevee read, possibly because he may have been scum making it up and realized it was a bad case. However, on the other hand, if he is scum, he should be looking for the other scumteam anyway, so I guess the read was probably legitimate. I also don't like that his only reason for voting faust was the scumslip, unlike everyone else (I think) who had their own reasons. This stuff is not the sort of thing that makes me think, ooo, this is scummy! It's just a bit off. Not against lynching him at all, but there are probably better options.

Archetype: weird stance on doctor claim, as I think I said at some point previously. I think it's the sort of hedgy statement that scum make, and also he didn't explain it until pressed, and explanation was bad I think. Lurking, but that's not a big deal from my perspective, because I know that at least one townie is lurking (me).

I'm pretty sure that at least two of Robz, 2.7, and yuma are scum and will lynch almost exclusively from that pool.

seems too confident for someone who hasn't been around all that much.

I still think that out of those people, we are likely to find scum amongst Robz, yuma, and 2.7.

2.7: Coming out against me hard early game continues that into D2. He is also not playing like a newbie, which scares me. I think that his partner told him that I'd be an easy lynch to push through. I'd expect a vet to let him know that. Which leads me to...

Robz: I think this is 2.7's most likely partner. He's defended him in the past and has mentioned that "Arch is often mislynch, but I'd still lynch him here". Not quite as strong of a read as I have on 2.7, but this is where I'd look if he is lynched and flips scum.

yuma: The weird early hammer still rubs me the wrong way. Trying the lead the conversation as always, but I'm OK with it since it's breathing some life back into the game.

okay, here's his explanation he posted recently. The reasoning on E doesn't actually explain why he suspects him, but then bases his robz read off him being E's scumbuddy. Then his thing on Yuma just says that the hammer rubs him the wrong way. Yeah, I didn't like it much either, but as you'll see when I get to Yuma, I read him a bit town for it, not scum. This is not a post with reasons for his reads at all. And he hasn't had any this day. (granted, I haven't really scumhunted today either, but I have now!) But anyway, I get the sense that he is just posting to post, because he needs to because if he doesn't he'll get lynched. Now, it's possible that he's doing this as town (in which case that's bad), but I think it's more likely he's doing it as scum.

sudgy: still a townread, see my post from D1. His stuff from D2 isn't anything remarkable, mostly short posts, but they each have a bit of content.

yuma: The hammer. I don't like it, but see:

One reservation I have about lynching yuma over what he did is that he has been pretty willing to let the day end early and not suspecting people who hammer too soon in past games, specifically, B2B. What he did was a very bad move if he is town, but it's also a move I can believe he might have made as town. Is it more likely that he is scum, trying to avoid the NK/push a lynch through/end the day early? could be...

town!yuma didn't advance his wincon yesterday. He either a) thought he was at the time for some reason, or b) was frustrated about faust getting lynched and let that get the better of him. Either one is plausible in my mind.

and after further thought I believe that it's actually much more likely that he did it as town. I don't think he would do it as scum, because of how much attention it would attract, and how much more likely it is to get him NKed. In the above post, I say 3 reasons he might do it as scum. They are all bad though I think:

-avoiding NK: probably does the opposite, scum want to hit other scum.
-push a lynch through: As Yuma said himself, the faust lynch was almost surely going to happen anyway.
-end the day early: yes, that hurt us, but not half as much as it would hurt scum!yuma's team if he was NKed.

And as I said in the post it's very plausible that he'd do it as town. So I have a townread on yuma. HOWEVER:

If yuma does a similar thing in a later game, I will advocate his lynch. Why? because I would have hoped that he would have learned his lesson from this game. My townread on him this game should hopefully not encourage such behavior...

I have to go now, and I didn't finish. I will have much more time tomorrow, and I actually will finish. promise. you guys can policy lynch me if I don't.

[Eevee]

One major problem in lynching a lurker is that since we have several lurkers, scum has an easier time of deflecting the lynch. If there is little to no content from multiple players, it's harder to hold someone accountable for choosing one of them. Scum can easily not vote for their partner out of the mix (this is admittedly less bad as all scum only have one partner).

Assuming all the lurking is relatively the same (as in no one is lurking way more scummily than someone else), if we want to go for a lurker lynch, I think Voltaire should have more of a say in which lurker we choose than in a normal lynch. Holds people a bit more accountable, either they won't deflect because they can't think of fake reasons to go against Voltaire for, or they'll try to deflect and will be held more accountable because we all agreed you need real reasons to choose that specific lurker because of all I said.

[mail-mi]

Indecision was ripe throughout the toy chest. Some toys pointed one out as the locker of the fire lock, others accused one of removing the batteries from the light. Woody was worried. With all this fighting, what will be made of us even if we survive?

Vote Count 2.4

Gveoniz (2): sudgy, Jimmmmm
Archetype (3): 2.71828....., Eevee, yuma
2.71828..... (1): Archetype
Jimmmmm (1): Robz888,
liopoil (1): Voltaire

Not Voting (2): liopoil, Gveoniz,

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Day 2 ends Sunday, November 17 at 8 PM Forum Time.

[Jimmmmm]

48 hours to lynch. Absent a super-compelling case, I'm very likely to vote for the person who's the most viable lynch.

[Eevee]

48 hours to lynch. Absent a super-compelling case, I'm very likely to vote for the person who's the most viable lynch.

I guess scum would be less likely to say something this scummy, but I dislike this theory. It's like you are telling scum "no worries, we won't even try to hit you today, just vote for some townie and I'll follow".

Or you are scum and just bold.

[Jimmmmm]

48 hours to lynch. Absent a super-compelling case, I'm very likely to vote for the person who's the most viable lynch.

I guess scum would be less likely to say something this scummy, but I dislike this theory. It's like you are telling scum "no worries, we won't even try to hit you today, just vote for some townie and I'll follow".

Or you are scum and just bold.

Or I am Town and just have no idea.

[Eevee]

48 hours to lynch. Absent a super-compelling case, I'm very likely to vote for the person who's the most viable lynch.

I guess scum would be less likely to say something this scummy, but I dislike this theory. It's like you are telling scum "no worries, we won't even try to hit you today, just vote for some townie and I'll follow".

Or you are scum and just bold.

Or I am Town and just have no idea.

Even if you are, telling that to scum is rather unhelpful, don't you think? Seems more like scum trying to absolve themselves from responsibility for a bad vote beforehand.