C9++ Known:
M-xxxxxx
Claimed:
M-DD-xxxx
Situations:
#1 Ashersky is lying.
#2 Ashersky is telling the truth
#1.a) If Ashersky is lying and there are only two Mafia, then the rolls are either M-TTTTT-x, or M-TTTTTT. In this case Ashersky knows for a fact that 1-shot Doctor does not exist in this game, so he can't be counter-claimed. However, he doesn't know if there are 5T's or 6T's in the setup. If we massclaim, and somebody claims {Roleblocker, 1-Shot Vigilante, 1-Shot Cop}, then he's hosed. If no other claim is forthcoming, Ashersky's partner could claim Doctor, fulfilling the DD setup. In this situation, we're likely dealing with 6T's (nobody claimed the extra x), which means no SK. The problem with this, is that they simply can't justify staying alive together. Not for the entire game. The only night kill would belong to scum, and it would have to consistently land elsewhere.
The other possible outcome to the above is that somebody claims Doctor. This leaves Ashersky's partner in the clear, and tells scum that the setup is MTTTTTD. This also tells scum that there is a SK in existence. This isn't terrible for scum, as they can shoot the Doctor N1 unhindered, and then justify Ashersky's not dying due to the fact that he's essentially a VT after the first night (he can claim to have Doctored me, instead of the Doctor, or have been Roleblocked, or whatever). This works because under the belief that Ashersky is what he claims, we town can believe that the setup exists as MTTTTDD. At that point the only situation that Ashersky gets caught, is if the SK shoots him, or we lynch him. In this situation, Ashersky is the Godfather on the team, and there's a Goon floating around (this doesn't work the other way 'round, else when the Godfather is killed we know Ashersky is lying).
Long story short: If we mass-claim, and Ashersky is part of a 2 man scum team, his only hope of pulling this off is if there's a Doctor in the house. At that point we can only really rely on a SK to shoot him. If that doesn't happen, we'll need to lynch him over a VT claim, after everything else points to his being truthful (NOTE: If we get to lylo, we've killed 1 Goon and the SK, and Ashersky is still alive, then he's lying scum. Because in order for MTTTTDD to be true, there would need to be 3 scum, and we would be end-gamed. Assuming that hadn't happened, the only situation is that there were 2 scum, which means DD did not exist.)
#1.b) If Ashersky is lying and there are 3 Mafia, it's a little more tricky. Mafia don't know the difference between a 3T and 4T roll, nor do they know the difference between a 0T, 1T and 2T roll. This is tough, because if he's fake-claiming scum in the 0T-2T range, he runs the risk of being counter-claimed. However, he also gets a decent shot at there being a single Doctor in the setup, which would "verify" his claim. If he's fake-claiming scum in the 3T-4T range, he's not as likely to get counter-claimed, but the odds of there being a Doctor starts to dwindle (M-TTT-xxx at best, M-TTTT-xx at worst).
If Ashersky was fake-claiming, and we DID have a real DD setup, I would expect our other 1-SD to have come forward already. So I'm going to dismiss that as possible.
And... gah, so many distractions around me. I've lost my train of thought, and I've got to get to work.
I think I was headed towards:
I don't see Ashersky making the fake-claim from a Mafia position of 3T's/4T's. Because if the setup is M-TTTT-xx, there's only 2 unknown rolls that could "verify" his claim (by coming up D). If we massclaim and we have any 2 combination of {C, B, V} but no D, he's hosed. Likewise, if we turn up {CC, VV, BB, MMM (including mine)}, he's also hosed. The only protection against those is having an additional scum-buddy of his claim Doctor to try and throw the claims off. But then we're left with 4 claims (at most), where 2 are fake. Not a good scum winning formula. He could let it go and write himself off as dead scum in this situation (instead of dragging a scummate down with him), but this still seems like an unnecessary gamble on his part). Sure, maybe it favors scum and the roll was M-TTT-xxx, but Mafia can't know that prior to making the claim. So I don't see this as likely.
Which brings me to: If Ashersky is scum, we're likely in a 0T-2T situation, where there could be anywhere from 4 'x's to 6 'x's for a Doctor roll to occur to support him. It also maximizes the number of claims running around that "might be fake", giving him room to argue around and possibly get some PR's lynched. And what risk does he run? We rolled DD, and he gets counter-claimed. Well, he may still take out the real One-Shot Doctor first. And if he doesn't get counter-claimed (as is currently the case), well he can possibly get our entire PR set exposed, in addition to possibly getting us to lynch some first before coming around to him.
And again, long story short:
If Ashersky is scum, I expect the setup to be one of the following three: M-xxxxxx, M-T-xxxxx, M-TT-xxxx. Or in other words, we're looking at {Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather}, and a 33% of there being a SK.
That isn't set in stone by any means, but I do think that's most likely to be the case If Ashersky is lying scum.
I have to leave for work like, 5 minutes ago, so I'll continue this later on what I think if Ashersky is telling the truth. I'll also go over everything that I've seen and that's stood out to me thus far. By NO means, should conversation cease in the interm.