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[chairs]

I'm not sure I follow your logic, sudgy - are you trying to say that town!sudgy and scum!sudgy play the same during the Day?

Because to be honest that's exactly what I'd expect scum!sudgy to say.

[sudgy]

I'm not sure I follow your logic, sudgy - are you trying to say that town!sudgy and scum!sudgy play the same during the Day?

Because to be honest that's exactly what I'd expect scum!sudgy to say.

I have said it countless times as town.  And it's more that I'm saying that scum!sudgy tries to play like town!sudgy as much as possible.  I can't be perfect, and it's those little things that will help you catch me as scum (unfortunately, you guys seem to always catch me for the wrong things as town).

[XerxesPraelor]

Okay, since I messed up in my previous post and it looks like more people are voting for sudgy than robz, Vote: sudgy

[sudgy]

Okay, since I messed up in my previous post and it looks like more people are voting for sudgy than robz, Vote: sudgy

What are your reasons?

I'm more trying to help you get good at how mafia works on forums.  Irl, you just randomly vote people pretty much, but online, you need to have good reasons to vote people (there are exceptions, like RVS (Random Voting Stage)).  "Sheeping", voting people because others are, is usually seen to be scummy.

[yuma]

Okay, since I messed up in my previous post and it looks like more people are voting for sudgy than robz, Vote: sudgy

What are your reasons?

I'm more trying to help you get good at how mafia works on forums.  Irl, you just randomly vote people pretty much, but online, you need to have good reasons to vote people (there are exceptions, like RVS (Random Voting Stage)).  "Sheeping", voting people because others are, is usually seen to be scummy.

Hey sudgy, I know you are super busy trying to defend yourself... but what are your reads atm. Honestly I think that is going to tell us a lot more about you than these arguments around your defense (not that you shouldn't argue your defense, but that shouldn't be all you are doing, nor should we expect you to only be doing that). So what are you reads at this point. Were any of your votes real that you cast before, or were they all RVS?

[yuma]

Understood on the point about voting Ash, I misunderstood. But that's really the best defense you have to the rest of it?

Is that really the best case you can make on me?

And I'm generally not that good at defending myself anyway.

two very scummy statements

[sudgy]

Understood on the point about voting Ash, I misunderstood. But that's really the best defense you have to the rest of it?

Is that really the best case you can make on me?

And I'm generally not that good at defending myself anyway.

two very scummy statements

Can people say why they're scummy?  My first one is worded that way because of how the original sentence was worded.

And, yuma, for your earlier post, my Robz vote was not RVS.  I will continue voting him until he explains why he voted ash when his claim made sense.

Other than that, I sadly haven't really gotten any solid reads, everybody's just playing as I would expect them to.

[Robz888]

And, yuma, for your earlier post, my Robz vote was not RVS.  I will continue voting him until he explains why he voted ash when his claim made sense.

It was just a "silly" vote.

[Robz888]

I'm caught up! Things that suck out to me:

-- sudgy is a fine lynch candidate.I find his statements and weird vote jumping quite scummy. We'll be cool to analyze how his wagon built after flip.

Other stuff... statements like this:

Unvote. probably best to remove my RVS vote.

Always mega scummy to me. They just stick out so much. LET ME TAKE YOU THROUGH EXACTLY WHAT I AM DOING SO THERE IS NO CONFUSION. I get a scum read from mail-mi off this.

Also, Voltaire:

I lean theorel, Voltaire, nkirbit as scum, based on ridiculous statements, clear fear at what I'm laying out for town, and focusing on the unimportant bits and trying to hide everything under emotional complaints.

I haven't read ash's post yet, but this is exactly what I was expecting. Anyone who doesn't get what ash is doing, or responds with skepticism, is automatically scum in his mind. I debated posting my reply in the first place because I knew only one reaction was guaranteed: ash would find me scummy.

SO what? Let him find you scummy. Who cares? That wouldn't stop a member of the town from speaking his mind.

[Voltaire]

Also, Voltaire:

I lean theorel, Voltaire, nkirbit as scum, based on ridiculous statements, clear fear at what I'm laying out for town, and focusing on the unimportant bits and trying to hide everything under emotional complaints.

I haven't read ash's post yet, but this is exactly what I was expecting. Anyone who doesn't get what ash is doing, or responds with skepticism, is automatically scum in his mind. I debated posting my reply in the first place because I knew only one reaction was guaranteed: ash would find me scummy.

SO what? Let him find you scummy. Who cares? That wouldn't stop a member of the town from speaking his mind.

Because in the past it has ended up being a huge distraction. And honestly, because I am getting tired of being under suspicion D1 (the jury is out on whether or not town suspecting town!Volt on D1 ultimately helps town win, as there aren't enough completed games in the dataset yet).

[Voltaire]

Because in the past it has ended up being a huge distraction. And honestly, because I am getting tired of being under suspicion D1 (the jury is out on whether or not town suspecting town!Volt on D1 ultimately helps town win, as there aren't enough completed games in the dataset yet).

Also worth nothing, Robz: I made my post anyway.

[sudgy]

And, yuma, for your earlier post, my Robz vote was not RVS.  I will continue voting him until he explains why he voted ash when his claim made sense.

It was just a "silly" vote.

Unvote, that makes sense.

[Robz888]

Because in the past it has ended up being a huge distraction. And honestly, because I am getting tired of being under suspicion D1 (the jury is out on whether or not town suspecting town!Volt on D1 ultimately helps town win, as there aren't enough completed games in the dataset yet).

Sorry man. People get suspected. That's how the game goes. I don't even think you are like the most suspected Day 1 person ever by a longshot.

[Voltaire]

Because in the past it has ended up being a huge distraction. And honestly, because I am getting tired of being under suspicion D1 (the jury is out on whether or not town suspecting town!Volt on D1 ultimately helps town win, as there aren't enough completed games in the dataset yet).

Sorry man. People get suspected. That's how the game goes. I don't even think you are like the most suspected Day 1 person ever by a longshot.

Not saying I am. Just telling you how I feel, in answer to your statements.

[sudgy]

The #1 wonder in the universe: Why am I the only one who gets suspicious for playing like myself?

[Robz888]

The #1 wonder in the universe: Why am I the only one who gets suspicious for playing like myself?

You aren't.

[Robz888]

You aren't the only one, I should say.

[sudgy]

I know, I'm more thinking of how everybody just thinks, "Oh, that's how [insert name here] always plays."  But it doesn't happen to me...

[chairs]

Because in the past it has ended up being a huge distraction. And honestly, because I am getting tired of being under suspicion D1 (the jury is out on whether or not town suspecting town!Volt on D1 ultimately helps town win, as there aren't enough completed games in the dataset yet).

Sorry man. People get suspected. That's how the game goes. I don't even think you are like the most suspected Day 1 person ever by a longshot.

I personally always suggest Robz and yuma D1.

(It's always Robz and yuma).

[chairs]

*suspect

[Robz888]

I always suspect mail-mi and Archetype on Day 1.

[Galzria]

C9++ Known:

M-xxxxxx

Claimed:

M-DD-xxxx

Situations:

#1 Ashersky is lying.
#2 Ashersky is telling the truth

#1.a) If Ashersky is lying and there are only two Mafia, then the rolls are either M-TTTTT-x, or M-TTTTTT. In this case Ashersky knows for a fact that 1-shot Doctor does not exist in this game, so he can't be counter-claimed. However, he doesn't know if there are 5T's or 6T's in the setup. If we massclaim, and somebody claims {Roleblocker, 1-Shot Vigilante, 1-Shot Cop}, then he's hosed. If no other claim is forthcoming, Ashersky's partner could claim Doctor, fulfilling the DD setup. In this situation, we're likely dealing with 6T's (nobody claimed the extra x), which means no SK. The problem with this, is that they simply can't justify staying alive together. Not for the entire game. The only night kill would belong to scum, and it would have to consistently land elsewhere.

The other possible outcome to the above is that somebody claims Doctor. This leaves Ashersky's partner in the clear, and tells scum that the setup is MTTTTTD. This also tells scum that there is a SK in existence. This isn't terrible for scum, as they can shoot the Doctor N1 unhindered, and then justify Ashersky's not dying due to the fact that he's essentially a VT after the first night (he can claim to have Doctored me, instead of the Doctor, or have been Roleblocked, or whatever). This works because under the belief that Ashersky is what he claims, we town can believe that the setup exists as MTTTTDD. At that point the only situation that Ashersky gets caught, is if the SK shoots him, or we lynch him. In this situation, Ashersky is the Godfather on the team, and there's a Goon floating around (this doesn't work the other way 'round, else when the Godfather is killed we know Ashersky is lying).

Long story short: If we mass-claim, and Ashersky is part of a 2 man scum team, his only hope of pulling this off is if there's a Doctor in the house. At that point we can only really rely on a SK to shoot him. If that doesn't happen, we'll need to lynch him over a VT claim, after everything else points to his being truthful (NOTE: If we get to lylo, we've killed 1 Goon and the SK, and Ashersky is still alive, then he's lying scum. Because in order for MTTTTDD to be true, there would need to be 3 scum, and we would be end-gamed. Assuming that hadn't happened, the only situation is that there were 2 scum, which means DD did not exist.)

#1.b) If Ashersky is lying and there are 3 Mafia, it's a little more tricky. Mafia don't know the difference between a 3T and 4T roll, nor do they know the difference between a 0T, 1T and 2T roll. This is tough, because if he's fake-claiming scum in the 0T-2T range, he runs the risk of being counter-claimed. However, he also gets a decent shot at there being a single Doctor in the setup, which would "verify" his claim. If he's fake-claiming scum in the 3T-4T range, he's not as likely to get counter-claimed, but the odds of there being a Doctor starts to dwindle (M-TTT-xxx at best, M-TTTT-xx at worst).

If Ashersky was fake-claiming, and we DID have a real DD setup, I would expect our other 1-SD to have come forward already. So I'm going to dismiss that as possible.

And... gah, so many distractions around me. I've lost my train of thought, and I've got to get to work.

I think I was headed towards:

I don't see Ashersky making the fake-claim from a Mafia position of 3T's/4T's. Because if the setup is M-TTTT-xx, there's only 2 unknown rolls that could "verify" his claim (by coming up D). If we massclaim and we have any 2 combination of {C, B, V} but no D, he's hosed. Likewise, if we turn up {CC, VV, BB, MMM (including mine)}, he's also hosed. The only protection against those is having an additional scum-buddy of his claim Doctor to try and throw the claims off. But then we're left with 4 claims (at most), where 2 are fake. Not a good scum winning formula. He could let it go and write himself off as dead scum in this situation (instead of dragging a scummate down with him), but this still seems like an unnecessary gamble on his part). Sure, maybe it favors scum and the roll was M-TTT-xxx, but Mafia can't know that prior to making the claim. So I don't see this as likely.

Which brings me to: If Ashersky is scum, we're likely in a 0T-2T situation, where there could be anywhere from 4 'x's to 6 'x's for a Doctor roll to occur to support him. It also maximizes the number of claims running around that "might be fake", giving him room to argue around and possibly get some PR's lynched. And what risk does he run? We rolled DD, and he gets counter-claimed. Well, he may still take out the real One-Shot Doctor first. And if he doesn't get counter-claimed (as is currently the case), well he can possibly get our entire PR set exposed, in addition to possibly getting us to lynch some first before coming around to him.

And again, long story short:

If Ashersky is scum, I expect the setup to be one of the following three: M-xxxxxx, M-T-xxxxx, M-TT-xxxx. Or in other words, we're looking at {Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather}, and a 33% of there being a SK.

That isn't set in stone by any means, but I do think that's most likely to be the case If Ashersky is lying scum.

I have to leave for work like, 5 minutes ago, so I'll continue this later on what I think if Ashersky is telling the truth. I'll also go over everything that I've seen and that's stood out to me thus far. By NO means, should conversation cease in the interm.

[yuma]

Understood on the point about voting Ash, I misunderstood. But that's really the best defense you have to the rest of it?

Is that really the best case you can make on me?

And I'm generally not that good at defending myself anyway.

two very scummy statements

Can people say why they're scummy?  My first one is worded that way because of how the original sentence was worded.

And, yuma, for your earlier post, my Robz vote was not RVS.  I will continue voting him until he explains why he voted ash when his claim made sense.

Other than that, I sadly haven't really gotten any solid reads, everybody's just playing as I would expect them to.

I don't need solid reads... I need any reads you have. It is day1. Reads aren't supposed to be super solid. My read on you is strong but is incredibly weak compared to any other d2+ read I have had...

So again, give us your reads. We are 2 days away from softdeadline... This lack of willingness to give reads or be involved in scum hunting in anyway other than silly rvs and a single vote on robz for other silly behavior should be added to the case.

[yuma]

in terms of where I stand with everyone else in the game doing a quick reread of everyone (not that hard with only 15 pages)



1. Eevee - was with a few of us on sudgy, but left it to go to xerxes? Not sure why he did... That move is a bit odd, but I dont' know if it was necessarily suspicious. Pretty null, but scum points for lurking
2. Robz888 - is starting to get into the game, so I guess I'll hold of judgement until he actually gets into the game. Robz is rarely a good day1 lynch anyways, so I am not too concerned with that. Benefit of the doubt town.
3. Ashersky - I am willing to believe his claim and thus not want to even consider lynching him. Town
4. Voltaire - Isn't being heavily suspected day1? He must be mafia! But really, he isn't jumping out to me in any specific way. In back to basics he was blatantly town (I ended up correctly doctoring him because of that obvious towniness, but I am not necessarily seeing that here) but neither am i seeing anything specifically scummy. Null
5. Yuma - Obviously town
6. Twistedarcher - an early, early suspect, but not as much anymore. he is with ash and I on sudgy, so I am more inclined to side with him just because of that automatically. Has been a little on the quiet side of late?
Kinda townie
7. Theorel - Hasn't done one of his % posts that he generally does mid-day1. Interesting to note. I don't know if I have ever seen scum theorel before. I have seen him as town a lot... He and I appear to have very different playstyles and scum hunting philosophies... I think that worked well in the last C9++ game where we both knew each other were town as masons... but here, since I don't know his alignment a different approach than mine because suspect just because it is different... So I am trying to keep that in mind, but I could potentially lynch theorel. Somewhat scummy
8. Sudgy - my biggest suspect, see other posts for why. Scummy
9. Mail-Mi - whole lot of nothing from mail-mi, but haven't seen what I would call mail-mi flags. I think I am pretty good at telling when he is scum. Not perfect, but pretty good. And I am not seeing anything right now. I do think it is interesting that no one is pressuring him though. Mail-mi is generally what I would call the "easy mislynch." Maybe mafia has learned that to suspect town mail-mi is to attract unwanted scrutiny from the likes of me and others... or maybe he just is mafia. Probably won't want to lynch today unless something specific occurs to make me think he is scummy.
10. Chairs - a spot I could lynch. Honestly I would put him in the same camp as eevee. Could lynch, but isn't my ideal lynch for the day.
11. Nkirbit - I got a town read from his on/off sudgy vote yesterday. That just seemed very townie to me in the way he voted, realized he was voting for a reason that he misunderstood and then left it. I think scum is more likely to stick with something until a more convienient time and then abandon ship, not to mention that mafia knows something isn't true because they would know who or who isn't mafia... Town
12. Xerses - new player, not on my lynch list for today for various reasons, see above
13. Galzria -  Innocent Child

So looks like my potential lynch pool for the day is: sudgy, theorel, eevee, chairs

Would need a convincing argument that I don't think can be made: twistedarcher, voltaire

everyone is more or less off the table at the moment, Galz, myself and ashersky are 100% off the table today as far as I am concerned.

[chairs]

Eevee - Cuddly and fluffy, has not yet evolved into Mafiaon so we should keep him around. Null.
Robz - Despite my ashersky-busing-based vote, I do think Robz is generally a solid player to keep around through D1. null.
Ashersky - Not lynching today. Town.
Voltaire - I feel like the D1 suspicion grumping is scummy but it's not without basis, I looked and he does get the eyeball a lot on D1. null
Yuma - Obviously scum ^_~.  I think if yuma is Mafia then we'll sniff it out of him later. null for now.
TA - I think he's V/LA at the moment and so his lurking is excusable. null.
Theorel - Insufficient theory talk from Theorel.  Scum.
Sudgy - His discussion on how "scum!sudgy" plays like "town!sudgy" sounded forced the last time I heard it, and it sounds force d now.  Sudgy, you need a new meta, man.  Scummy.
Mail-mi - ...lurking?
Chairs - obvtown.  Would not lynch.
Nkirbit - yuma and I differ here, I get a slight scumread from the on/off vote.  Nothing major, but it sounds like a potential "for towncred" move.
Xerses - I'm in favor of seeing more interactions from newbies so we can catch them in future games based on their meta >.
Galz - Obvscum (actually the IC).

Want to lynch - vote: Sudgy
Would lynch - Theorel, Nkirbit
Won't Lynch - Chairs, Xerses, Galzria, Ashersky