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[Twistedarcher]

Man, I hope you do mislynch me for this.  That way, when I pull it off as scum in some other game, it'll be that much sweeter.

And I hope I nail you here. But I'm also scared that we're turning this into a you-or-me situation, and scum is more than happy to sit back and let that happen. I'm like 95% sure you're scum, but I'm not positive, and I think no-lynch is probably the correct decision here.

The thing is, if you're town, I'd fully expect no other cases to come up today, and that's kind of what's happening right now.

But I'm just psyching myself out cause you're tootalllyyyyy scum.

It's definitely you or me at this point.  There isn't even anything to talk about.  That's the worst thing about your stupid Hider plan.  D2 is useless.

D1 is too long to re-read.  We're stuck here and scum will win, unless we lynch TA.

We lynched a scum D2.

I disagree with literally every point in this post, but oh well.

[ashersky]

I will be super frustrated if UoS went the other way and really hid behind Shraeye.

This was TA's last post of D2, for what that's worth.  It sounds like he's frustrated to lose a partner, and especially so if it was dumb luck and NOT actually the plan that caught him.

[ashersky]

Man, I hope you do mislynch me for this.  That way, when I pull it off as scum in some other game, it'll be that much sweeter.

And I hope I nail you here. But I'm also scared that we're turning this into a you-or-me situation, and scum is more than happy to sit back and let that happen. I'm like 95% sure you're scum, but I'm not positive, and I think no-lynch is probably the correct decision here.

The thing is, if you're town, I'd fully expect no other cases to come up today, and that's kind of what's happening right now.

But I'm just psyching myself out cause you're tootalllyyyyy scum.

It's definitely you or me at this point.  There isn't even anything to talk about.  That's the worst thing about your stupid Hider plan.  D2 is useless.

D1 is too long to re-read.  We're stuck here and scum will win, unless we lynch TA.

We lynched a scum D2.

I disagree with literally every point in this post, but oh well.

Yes, we did lynch scum D2.  That's good, but has zero bearing on finding scum today, unfortunately.  Eevee was super scummy in twilight, but not much else sticks out to me.

[Eevee]

Scumslips have never ever caught anyone. Mail-mi the godfather would be the closest, but that was more of an actual slip for being too excited in a favorable situation than a typo that somehow creeped to the text because your subconscious knows you are scum.

Ashersky, why are you unable to realize that any argument starting with "you are wrong, I only choose to self vote as town so me choosing to self vote makes me obvtown" is pretty non-convincing.

Everyone, fwiw, ashersky has taken issue with me saying "ash isn't self voting, so he is probably scum", so clearly his view on this subject is whatever makes him seem towniest at that particular game.

Ash is clearly over reaching, whether TA is scum or bot. But that being said, the first scumslip ash pointed out actually was a bit worrisome and I would have suspected ash heavily in the recent blitz as well, so I'm in favor of nolynch as well. Smaller towns function better.

[ashersky]

I'm really not qualified to say if hider as a role is overpowered or not, but it seems pretty clear to me that all the guys who spent all those posts and all that time perfecting a plan for us helped us lynch scum without any discussion day 2. I would say those who tried to shut down such discussion day 1 should really reconsider their stance (and quite frankly their attitude), as lynching scum day 2 without outing any power roles is pretty damn awesome, yeah!

Last post of D2.  Eevee is thanking folks for ensuring there was no meaningful discussion on D2.  Only scum would want that, right?

Separate the successful lynch from the rest of what happened on D2.  It was a waste of a day, and all it really ended up being was an extremely long night with 2 town deaths that sandwiched a scum death.  We're days further from D1 and no closer to catching the third scum member after TA's dead.

[Twistedarcher]

Right, but you're bemoaning the fact that we don't have a D2 to go and re-read, while simultaneously saying that D1 is too long to be useful. We can still basically use D1 as our most recent day, since D2 didn't change anything other than having a random lynch as a result of the hider plan. Why is re-reading D1 impossible, while not having a D2 to re-read bad? It's still only one day to re-read, either way.

[ashersky]

Scumslips have never ever caught anyone. Mail-mi the godfather would be the closest, but that was more of an actual slip for being too excited in a favorable situation than a typo that somehow creeped to the text because your subconscious knows you are scum.

Lies.  Captain_Frisk and his 0% chance of flipping town want a word with you.

[ashersky]

Right, but you're bemoaning the fact that we don't have a D2 to go and re-read, while simultaneously saying that D1 is too long to be useful. We can still basically use D1 as our most recent day, since D2 didn't change anything other than having a random lynch as a result of the hider plan. Why is re-reading D1 impossible, while not having a D2 to re-read bad? It's still only one day to re-read, either way.

2 separate complaints, really.  Long days are a bother for everyone.  I think we all agree there.  That's just unfortunate.

D2 being non-existent is another bother.  I mean, it doesn't many anyone scum, obviously, but I can complain about it nonetheless.

[ashersky]

Scumslips have never ever caught anyone. Mail-mi the godfather would be the closest, but that was more of an actual slip for being too excited in a favorable situation than a typo that somehow creeped to the text because your subconscious knows you are scum.

Ashersky, why are you unable to realize that any argument starting with "you are wrong, I only choose to self vote as town so me choosing to self vote makes me obvtown" is pretty non-convincing.

Everyone, fwiw, ashersky has taken issue with me saying "ash isn't self voting, so he is probably scum", so clearly his view on this subject is whatever makes him seem towniest at that particular game.

Ash is clearly over reaching, whether TA is scum or bot. But that being said, the first scumslip ash pointed out actually was a bit worrisome and I would have suspected ash heavily in the recent blitz as well, so I'm in favor of nolynch as well. Smaller towns function better.

As for the rest, you have been there when I get accused of being scum for NOT self-voting.  It's like you getting called out for not buddying enough.  You end up having to buddy to get back to a null read.  That's the problem with having such well-known metas.

How you say I am "over reaching" but TA is not I don't get.

[Twistedarcher]

Right, but you're bemoaning the fact that we don't have a D2 to go and re-read, while simultaneously saying that D1 is too long to be useful. We can still basically use D1 as our most recent day, since D2 didn't change anything other than having a random lynch as a result of the hider plan. Why is re-reading D1 impossible, while not having a D2 to re-read bad? It's still only one day to re-read, either way.

2 separate complaints, really.  Long days are a bother for everyone.  I think we all agree there.  That's just unfortunate.

D2 being non-existent is another bother.  I mean, it doesn't many anyone scum, obviously, but I can complain about it nonetheless.

Right, but why can't D1 just replace D2 in this instance? It's the most recent day of scum-hunting, but instead, we have 5 flips to go off of, rather than the normal 2 flips. Isn't that a lot better?

[Eevee]

It really is wrong to blame me for us not having a day 2 as you guys had already hammered before I had a chance to post anything.

But the hider plan catching scum so handily we didn't even need to discuss it rocked. It being a week since I last had to formulate reads in this game means that it takes a bit longer for me to get back to the groove here and everyone knows how scum loves disinterested towns. If TA-ash(-me) is town on town (on town), scum is so loving this.

I agree with ash about hider plans making day 1 a pain to reread. We should at least check snow's awesome summaries though, did anyone take a note of their post numbers?

[Twistedarcher]

Ash, why would you rather lynch yourself than no-lynch today?

In most instances (disregrding your read on me) do you think no-lynch would be preferably with 8 alive and no additional kills / kill blocking?

[ashersky]

Right, but you're bemoaning the fact that we don't have a D2 to go and re-read, while simultaneously saying that D1 is too long to be useful. We can still basically use D1 as our most recent day, since D2 didn't change anything other than having a random lynch as a result of the hider plan. Why is re-reading D1 impossible, while not having a D2 to re-read bad? It's still only one day to re-read, either way.

2 separate complaints, really.  Long days are a bother for everyone.  I think we all agree there.  That's just unfortunate.

D2 being non-existent is another bother.  I mean, it doesn't many anyone scum, obviously, but I can complain about it nonetheless.

Right, but why can't D1 just replace D2 in this instance? It's the most recent day of scum-hunting, but instead, we have 5 flips to go off of, rather than the normal 2 flips. Isn't that a lot better?

The way scum acted on D1 cannot take into account the knowledge of Voltaire's role, or that nkirbit would die, or that UoS was the Hider.  There's not much there.

What is good about subsequent days is that everyone is posting with more knowledge.  It's like D1 happened regularly, then we skipped to D3 with everyone dead, but no new information.

Yes, we can read D1 with the hindsight of confirmed townies and one confirmed scum.  It's all we can do.  It just isn't as good as having more than one day.

[Twistedarcher]

Yeah, but what's done is done. And we're probably not helping the thread for readability later with our back and forth honestly, I think we've both made our points.

[Eevee]

Scumslips have never ever caught anyone. Mail-mi the godfather would be the closest, but that was more of an actual slip for being too excited in a favorable situation than a typo that somehow creeped to the text because your subconscious knows you are scum.

Lies.  Captain_Frisk and his 0% chance of flipping town want a word with you.

He was going on a rant, upset about the fact he was getting lynched for "the wrong reasons". The lynch was a done deal before that, he had already behaved in whatever incriminating way.

You saying "I'm town when I self vote, but not scummier when I don't" just doesn't compute. Which is it? If self-voting should make you obvtown to all townies, isn't it very favorable for ashersky to self vote as scum? What would be stopping you?

[Eevee]

It was going to be near-impossible to have any kind of a real day 2 after everyone realized we had caught scum. I don't even know if it can be called unfortunate, although often we start killing scum day 3 and never miss after that (in the games we win).

[ashersky]

Ash, why would you rather lynch yourself than no-lynch today?

In most instances (disregrding your read on me) do you think no-lynch would be preferably with 8 alive and no additional kills / kill blocking?

I get the feeling that I must die to get everyone to see the light that I'm telling the truth.  If that's what it takes to catch you, I am willing to do it, and feel like it's better than waiting.  That's why.

From a pure theory perspective, I understand the appeal of a no lynch today.  It provides the remaining PR with an opportunity.  It reduces the pool of possible mislynches by one night kill.  I also see the risks: the PR could be NK'ed, obviously, or scum could force our hand by no-killing.

Here's something to remember in all this.  According to someone, we have a 50% chance we have a psychologist.  That role says that, if scum have already performed a kill, they return as innocent.  Given we've had two kills and there are only two scum, it is VERY possible that the psychologist is a named VT at this point.  Sure, one scum could have done both kills, but with the Watcher dead, they had no reason not to spread the kills out to ensure maximum safety.  Even if nkirbit did the N1 kill, the N3 kill can be done by the one who hasn't killed yet, and they will return innocent to the psychologist, given yuma's order of resolution has investigations AFTER killing.

Actually, the psychologist is guaranteed to NEVER catch scum at this point in the game.  So scum has the 50% chance there's a Detective in the game, which of course is deadly to them, and 50% chance we're all VTs.

Scum has a 1/6 chance of killing the PR, reads notwithstanding.

They might decide that the distraction of no-kill is worth it, given only a 1/6 chance of hitting a 50% PR.  It's basically 1/12 chance they kill the Detective, if there is one.

So, if we can bank on scum killing tonight, and killing a VT/Psychologist, then a No Lynch is helpful to town.
If scum kills the Detective, or no-kills, a No Lynch is not helpful to town.

[ashersky]

Scumslips have never ever caught anyone. Mail-mi the godfather would be the closest, but that was more of an actual slip for being too excited in a favorable situation than a typo that somehow creeped to the text because your subconscious knows you are scum.

Lies.  Captain_Frisk and his 0% chance of flipping town want a word with you.

He was going on a rant, upset about the fact he was getting lynched for "the wrong reasons". The lynch was a done deal before that, he had already behaved in whatever incriminating way.

Either Insom or joth had a scumslip in a game I was in, and he went "welp" and self-voted and didn't post anymore.  Can't recall which one is was. 

At any rate, we will continue to point out scum slips and they will continue to be ignored by everyone.  Scum should never worry about slips.

[ashersky]

You saying "I'm town when I self vote, but not scummier when I don't" just doesn't compute. Which is it? If self-voting should make you obvtown to all townies, isn't it very favorable for ashersky to self vote as scum? What would be stopping you?

It doesn't compute because it isn't fair.

"Ash self-voted?  Scum gambit!"
"Ash didn't self-vote yet?  Scum playing it safe!"

Lose-lose situation.

[Eevee]

I don't think that happened, never before they were already caught anyways. Ash, you adding super weak points that clearly hold no water to your arguments just makes me always feel like you are being dishonest and are deliberately using anything you can come up with to point to the other person being scum.

If scum wants to "force our hand" by nokilling, isn't nolynch just strictly better in that case?

[Jimmmmm]

If we no lynch today, then mislynch me tomorrow, we still have lylo on D5 to lynch TA, right?

If the majority of town needs my flip to confirm TA's mafia alignment, I say we skip the no lynch.

I think it's pretty safe to say that scum won't NK either of you, so if one of you is scum and the other Town, then any combination of lynching both of you and no-lynching will result in a 2-1 lylo. I'm not saying we should necessarily do that, but regardless, the argument for no-lynching first is that no-lynching is significantly better while we still have our PR. No-lynching sooner gives scum fewer chances to take out our PR before we no-lynch.

But isn't the chance we lose the PR the same whether we no lynch or not?  Or are you arguing that if we lynch a VT, it narrows the pool of possible PRs for scum tonight?

If we no-lynch Today, scum has to kill Tonight. If we instead lynch today and scum hit the PR Tonight, and we no-lynch Tomorrow, scum can simply refuse to kill, taking away the advantage we could get from no-lynching.

[Twistedarcher]

Ash, why would you rather lynch yourself than no-lynch today?

In most instances (disregrding your read on me) do you think no-lynch would be preferably with 8 alive and no additional kills / kill blocking?

I get the feeling that I must die to get everyone to see the light that I'm telling the truth.  If that's what it takes to catch you, I am willing to do it, and feel like it's better than waiting.  That's why.

From a pure theory perspective, I understand the appeal of a no lynch today.  It provides the remaining PR with an opportunity.  It reduces the pool of possible mislynches by one night kill.  I also see the risks: the PR could be NK'ed, obviously, or scum could force our hand by no-killing.

Here's something to remember in all this.  According to someone, we have a 50% chance we have a psychologist.  That role says that, if scum have already performed a kill, they return as innocent.  Given we've had two kills and there are only two scum, it is VERY possible that the psychologist is a named VT at this point.  Sure, one scum could have done both kills, but with the Watcher dead, they had no reason not to spread the kills out to ensure maximum safety.  Even if nkirbit did the N1 kill, the N3 kill can be done by the one who hasn't killed yet, and they will return innocent to the psychologist, given yuma's order of resolution has investigations AFTER killing.

Actually, the psychologist is guaranteed to NEVER catch scum at this point in the game.  So scum has the 50% chance there's a Detective in the game, which of course is deadly to them, and 50% chance we're all VTs.

Scum has a 1/6 chance of killing the PR, reads notwithstanding.

They might decide that the distraction of no-kill is worth it, given only a 1/6 chance of hitting a 50% PR.  It's basically 1/12 chance they kill the Detective, if there is one.

So, if we can bank on scum killing tonight, and killing a VT/Psychologist, then a No Lynch is helpful to town.
If scum kills the Detective, or no-kills, a No Lynch is not helpful to town.

No kill would be helpful to town. There's a chance that we don't have a psychologist, but a detective, and town can't protect against BOTH possibilities. I'd be moreee than happy to do 10 no-lynches followed by 10 no-kills, if that's what scum wants to do. But they won't.

Who knows how scum kills are distributed, they will either after tonight have 1 scum who's killed (to guard against detective) or 2 scum who have killed ( to guard against psychologist). but no matter what, there's a greater than 0% chance we gain info with a no lynch / no kill, which means scum no killing would help us. At worst, it does nothing, at best, PR catches scum. So there's no downside there.

Now, there's a possibility that scum kills the PR, which would suck. But I think personally it's worth that risk (only 1/6 odds, maybe better depending on scum's reads)

[Eevee]

You yourself are saying
"I self-vote, therefore I'm town"
"I don't self-vote, but that has no bearing on my alignment"

A win-win for ash, and also a locigal fallacy.

[Twistedarcher]

Vote: No-lynch

[ashersky]

It's 5 to lynch, right?

No Lynch is at L-2.