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[ashersky]

Oh yeah posts! I am in no condition to respond as to why ask is completelyyyy wtk g but I will convinc you all why he's scum tomorrow.

But should we no lynxh regardless? I think so?

Can you translate "wtk g"?

Wait, maybe "wtk g" = "wrong"?

[Twistedarcher]

Oh yeah posts! I am in no condition to respond as to why ask is completelyyyy wtk g but I will convinc you all why he's scum tomorrow.

But should we no lynxh regardless? I think so?

Can you translate "wtk g"?

Wait, maybe "wtk g" = "wrong"?

Yep, sorry.

[Twistedarcher]

Ash why are you not considering the fact that I'm mistaken town, and why are you making this "me or you?"

[Jimmmmm]

Ash why are you not considering the fact that I'm mistaken town, and why are you making this "me or you?"

The fact that you're mistaken Town?

Vote: Twisted

[yuma]

Vote Count 3.3

“Wait, Uh can I come in and use your phone” asked the missionary. “I seem to have lost my partner in this storm.”

The guests looked past him out into the night. A storm was raging. Yet the missionary wasn’t wet at all.
“Of course you may, sir!” said Yvette the Maid after a moment’s hesitation. “You may use the one in the upsta…, um… no. Uh, you could the one in the stud… no. Uh, uh, would you be kind enough to wait in the, um, in-in, um, uh library?”

“Oh, great! I love libraries. Speaking of books, have you ever heard of this great book.”

<30 minutes later>

“And to make a long story short....,” the missionary began to finish.

“Too late,” said everyone, interrupting.

“...we now have a worldwide church and I think you all should be baptized.”

No lynch: (1) liopoil
ashersky: (1) TA
TA: (2) ashersky, Jimmmmmmm
Not voting: (4) raerae, mcmcsalot, chairs, Eevee

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day3 is August 6 at 2 pm forum time.

[Jimmmmm]

Although for the record, I'm generally in favour of the no-lynch option since it will potentially give our PR another opportunity to get information and reduce our number of possible mislynches. Any reasons not to no-lynch?

[ashersky]

Although for the record, I'm generally in favour of the no-lynch option since it will potentially give our PR another opportunity to get information and reduce our number of possible mislynches. Any reasons not to no-lynch?

As I laid out, I think no-lynch leaves us in the same position as a mislynch tomorrow, so it isn't as favorable as it looked at first blush.  I'm not convinced it's the wrong decision, by any means, but depending on who scum kills, it possibly can hurt us tomorrow.

I prefer to lynch TA, as I've mentioned once or twice.  And that scumslip was epic.

[Jimmmmm]

We are currently at 6 vs. 2.  We each have a 2/7 chance of finding scum.  A no lynch + NK makes it 5 vs. 2, upping chances to 1/3 in LYLO.

Consider instead a mislynch today, plus an NK tonight.  That puts us at 4 vs. 2 with a 1/3 chance for each townie to catch scum.

So, both a no lynch and a mislynch results in LYLO tomorrow with a 1/3 chance for each townie.  I guess I'm not super convinced a no lynch helps, when we look at it like that.  Especially because scum won't kill off anyone that's a likely mislynch to help us out.

But 5 vs 2 isn't lylo (in fact neither is 4 v 2, but it is mylo).

[ashersky]

We are currently at 6 vs. 2.  We each have a 2/7 chance of finding scum.  A no lynch + NK makes it 5 vs. 2, upping chances to 1/3 in LYLO.

Consider instead a mislynch today, plus an NK tonight.  That puts us at 4 vs. 2 with a 1/3 chance for each townie to catch scum.

So, both a no lynch and a mislynch results in LYLO tomorrow with a 1/3 chance for each townie.  I guess I'm not super convinced a no lynch helps, when we look at it like that.  Especially because scum won't kill off anyone that's a likely mislynch to help us out.

But 5 vs 2 isn't lylo (in fact neither is 4 v 2, but it is mylo).

If we lynch town at 5 vs 2, then town is NK'ed, it's 3 v 2 the next day, so you are right, that's LYLO there. At 4 v 2, we mislynch and lose, no lynch and end up at 3 v 2.

You are right, my math was wrong.  5 v 2 gives us an extra day, in theory, which is today, the no lynch day.  I guess technically we could no lynch three times (from 6 v 2 to 3 v 2), but that's dumb.

I don't know.  I still prefer to just lynch scum.

[raerae]

Is understanding the plan Towny or scummy?

I think it's pretty neutral of alignment.

Although, scum might have wanted to jump on board since they knew their partner was probably getting lynched.

Nkirbit's position on Chairs' wagon makes me think that Chairs is probably town, so we had two town wagons D1. I'd expect scum to probably split the wagons in that case, and that there's at least one scum on Voltaire's wagon (and probably there's a scum who got on Voltaire's wagon pretty early, too.)

Why?  Can you validate that statement with actual reasons or do you just expect us to accept this as fact?

[ashersky]

Can you validate that statement with actual reasons or do you just expect us to accept this as fact?

That's scum!TA's thing.

[raerae]

So what is the final verdict on the no lynch thing?  Can both Ash and TA or Jimmmmm answer that, please? 

[ashersky]

So what is the final verdict on the no lynch thing?  Can both Ash and TA or Jimmmmm answer that, please?

It has merit, but I prefer to lynch scum.

I would not call shenanigans on anyone for pushing no lynch, though.

[Jimmmmm]

I don't know.  I still prefer to just lynch scum.

I agree with this notion in principal, but an oddity of this game is that having an even number of players and one extra VT is generally worse for Town than having an odd number without the VT. We'd much rather get to, for example, 2 v 1 than 3 v 1. So I think we should no-lynch at some point, and I don't see a good reason to delay that until Tomorrow. The counter for that, of course, is for scum to simply refuse to nightkill, but that won't work because then our PR will simply investigate everyone and then claim. So scum has to kill, and I think having one person die is better for Town than two at this stage.

So while yes I'd prefer to lynch scum, no-lynching is something we have to do to maximise the odds sometimes, and I think now is the right time to do it.

[ashersky]

I don't know.  I still prefer to just lynch scum.

I agree with this notion in principal, but an oddity of this game is that having an even number of players and one extra VT is generally worse for Town than having an odd number without the VT. We'd much rather get to, for example, 2 v 1 than 3 v 1. So I think we should no-lynch at some point, and I don't see a good reason to delay that until Tomorrow. The counter for that, of course, is for scum to simply refuse to nightkill, but that won't work because then our PR will simply investigate everyone and then claim. So scum has to kill, and I think having one person die is better for Town than two at this stage.

So while yes I'd prefer to lynch scum, no-lynching is something we have to do to maximise the odds sometimes, and I think now is the right time to do it.

As long as it is a VT that dies.  We can basically control that via lynching (claims and all that) but not with NKs.

[Twistedarcher]

Ash why are you not considering the fact that I'm mistaken town, and why are you making this "me or you?"

The fact that you're mistaken Town?

Vote: Twisted

No, the possibility that I'm town. But I see that Ash addressed that possibility now that I'm reading his posts. But yeah, not a scum slip, and yea, Ash is still scum.

[Twistedarcher]

Is understanding the plan Towny or scummy?

I think it's pretty neutral of alignment.

Although, scum might have wanted to jump on board since they knew their partner was probably getting lynched.

Nkirbit's position on Chairs' wagon makes me think that Chairs is probably town, so we had two town wagons D1. I'd expect scum to probably split the wagons in that case, and that there's at least one scum on Voltaire's wagon (and probably there's a scum who got on Voltaire's wagon pretty early, too.)

Why?  Can you validate that statement with actual reasons or do you just expect us to accept this as fact?

Nkirbit was a major pusher of Chairs' wagon. Volt made the initial post about Chairs' scumminess, which Nkirbit then ran with. He pushed that wagon, when the alternative was pushing Volt's wagon.

Yes, bussing is a thing. But I don't think scum would bus that hard D1, when the alternative was town. If chairs was scum, I believe that Nkirbit, as his buddy, would have switched to Volt / gotten off of chairs. He didn't. Therefore, I can conclude that Chairs is, in fact, town.

Plus, the end of the day totally felt like we were choosing between two town lynches.

[Twistedarcher]

So what is the final verdict on the no lynch thing?  Can both Ash and TA or Jimmmmm answer that, please?

I think no lynch probablllyyy makes no the sense. It really doesn't make a difference to me whether we lynch Ash today or tomorrow.

[Jimmmmm]

I guess I may as well Vote: no lynch.

[Twistedarcher]

vote: TA for bold faced lies and painting himself into a scum corner (with probable partner, Eevee).

On mobile now, will blow up TA's lies soon.

Sooo what you're saying here is that I'm scum who proclaims a town read on his buddy this easily, to go for one mislynch? I realize that if you flip town, I'm probably the lynch the next day. The fact that you're calling this a scum move, immediately, and then proclaiming Eevee my partner, rather than considering the case that I could just be mistaken town, makes me even more confident (and I was pretty confident before)

[Twistedarcher]

I guess I may as well Vote: no lynch.

Do you actually think that I'm scum and that I scum slipped?

[Jimmmmm]

I guess I may as well Vote: no lynch.

Do you actually think that I'm scum and that I scum slipped?

It read to me that you were trying to convince ash that you were mistaken Town. If you were convinced he was scum, why would you care what he thinks?

[ashersky]

I guess I may as well Vote: no lynch.

Do you actually think that I'm scum and that I scum slipped?

It read to me that you were trying to convince ash that you were mistaken Town. If you were convinced he was scum, why would you care what he thinks?

I think the damning part of the slip is the "mistaken" part is taken as a given, because TA knows I'm town.  He's banking on playing the mistaken town card after I flip.

[Twistedarcher]

UoS, Mcmc, Ash, Shraeye, Eevee, Jimmm, TA, Chairs, and Voltaire all vote Ash at some point, with several players unvoting...

Now, that's a lot of people to vote for one person. But we know that UoS, Shraeye, and Volt were all town, and Ash's vote doesn't really count. That leaves TA, Eevee, Jimmm, and Mcmc...

Here are two lines of interest from the next two paragraphs.  It is here, buried among a lot of nothing, where TA works his manipulation magic.  He lists all players who voted for me, together.  He visually and theoretically puts all nine players in one group.  Then he breaks it down a full seven lines down, pointing out who we now know are town, and who may not yet be.

But that's the extent of the delving he does.  This portion of his DBZ screams "look at all the townies that thought Ash was scum!" when in fact, not all of them did.  Voltaire, easily my biggest detractor on D1 after TA, was unsure of his scum!read by the end of D1.  Shraeye was pretty clearly convinced I was town from the beginning.

He also doesn't mention, AT ALL, the other players in the game, namely Robz and raerae, both of whom were staunchly in my corner.

In sum: TA selectively used the names of our dearly departed in a way to paint me as scummy.  They aren't here to correct him.  TA ignores their opinions and uses their voting records to try and support his scumread on me.  He tied those points back into the plan argument, which was a flashpoint and probably the most vivid memory from D1.  It is misleading and manipulative in nature, which is inherently scummy.

Honestly, to be frank, I don't care what dead townies thought about you, whether you were town or scum. I have more information than they did. That's nothing against them, but me knowing they were town, while they couldn't know I was town, means that my reads are much more likely to be correct.

The fact that you're using dead townies town-reads as a defense is pretty irrelevant. What IS relevant, though, is that I believe your wagon was a townie-driven one. Especially D1, scum is more likely to be hit by a townie-driven wagon than a scum-driven wagon. The fact that your wagon is one I believe was largely filled by town makes it more likely that you're scum.

[ashersky]

Ash why are you not considering the fact that I'm mistaken town, and why are you making this "me or you?"

The fact that you're mistaken Town?

Vote: Twisted

No, the possibility that I'm town. But I see that Ash addressed that possibility now that I'm reading his posts. But yeah, not a scum slip, and yea, Ash is still scum.

"Fact" and "possibility" are so close together in spelling, I see how you made that typo.

Again, it is definitely a slip.  "The fact that I'm mistaken town" makes sense only if you are scum trying to look like mistaken town.  Otherwise, you are just town, since you wouldn't know my alignment.  Arguing you are "mistaken town" before everyone else knows I'm town is the slip.