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Author Topic: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Mafia Wins  (Read 217621 times)

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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1000 on: July 22, 2013, 11:48:46 am »

Should have been obvious that we'd volte Voltaire if necessary, and that Volt NEEDED to do something to stop it. He didn't do anything, and I would have encouraged Ash to hammer before he was gone rather than risking a no-lynch.
What the heck could I have done? I'd made a case on chairs! If people weren't buying it, fine. Then it's up to them to direct town to their top scumread! I did that.

Made it clear you were a PR. There was no indication that you were.

That was Ash's last time online before deadline. He couldn't wait for a claim, and he needed to hammer someone.
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Voltaire

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1001 on: July 22, 2013, 11:51:40 am »

Should have been obvious that we'd volte Voltaire if necessary, and that Volt NEEDED to do something to stop it. He didn't do anything, and I would have encouraged Ash to hammer before he was gone rather than risking a no-lynch.
What the heck could I have done? I'd made a case on chairs! If people weren't buying it, fine. Then it's up to them to direct town to their top scumread! I did that.

Made it clear you were a PR. There was no indication that you were.

That was Ash's last time online before deadline. He couldn't wait for a claim, and he needed to hammer someone.
Lies. At the start of the day I royally screwed up and outed myself. According to mcmc, he caught it. And I DID try to make it clear - it's better to lynch the VT!

And ash also (in addition to the "nobody believe Volt's real claim" thing) tried to paint my post as "anybody but me". It is VERY clear that chairs was my top scumread!

I'm done posting. People clearing weren't paying attention to my posts. Town ****ed up D1. Good luck going forward.
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liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1002 on: July 22, 2013, 11:53:41 am »

Robz/Liopoil:  Why are you so sure he's scum still lying to us?  I mean, it's possible, but it really seems so likely to you guys you don't even want to talk and get last minute thoughts out of him in the event that he isn't lying?  You're that sure?  Really?
I'm not! I was on the chairs wagon! I still think that voltaire is town. I'm just hoping he's scum, and his claim gave me a reason to hope. Of course if he's town he should tell us all his thoughts, and he has. His reads are very much out there.
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liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1003 on: July 22, 2013, 11:55:40 am »

voltaire, what's your flavor name?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1004 on: July 22, 2013, 11:57:54 am »

voltaire, what's your flavor name?

Why does this matter?  It'll flip in a few hours.  Are you expecting counterclaims or something?  After he's already lynched?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1005 on: July 22, 2013, 11:58:58 am »

I mean,
1. What incentive would he possibly have to lie,  Town or Scum?
2. What would this possibly tell us?
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liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1006 on: July 22, 2013, 12:01:00 pm »

no, I'm thinking we can ponder this:


All players will be assigned a flavor name from the following:

1. Col. Mustard
2. Professor Plum
3. Mrs. White
4. Wadsworth the Butler
5. The Mechanic
6. The Cop
7. Mr. Green
8. Miss Scarlett
9. Yvette the Maid
10. The Singing Telegram Girl
11. The Cook
12. Mr. Boddy
13. Mrs. Peacock

This flavor name will be a character from the Movie Clue. One and only one of these flavor names will have intentional significance in regard to roles and/or alignment. This is all I will say on the subject.
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Voltaire

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1007 on: July 22, 2013, 12:02:12 pm »

voltaire, what's your flavor name?
I'm The Cop.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1008 on: July 22, 2013, 12:19:08 pm »

Huh, I would've pegged the trackerlante role as Wadsworth.

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1009 on: July 22, 2013, 12:22:02 pm »

Remember, there is only 1 meaningful connection.  I'd assume he isn't it.
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raerae

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1010 on: July 22, 2013, 12:22:41 pm »

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

I think this is a really hedgy, unsure view of the alternative lynch to Chairs, that doesn't really tell us anything at all.

I agree with Mcmc's analysis that you really aren't saying all that much here, and that you have very few scum reads beyond "suspicions" that aren't putting yourself out there at all.

No.  No.  It's D1.  I refuse to name a scumteam D1.  I won't because that's ridiculous.  I reserve the right to be unsure about everything ESPECIALLY D1.  Why did you only point out Volt?  None of my reads were solid.  All could be considered hedgey.  Why only point the finger at Volt?

obviously i'm not one to talk about being helpfull, but i think there is a bit of a difference between naming a scum team and having a decent amount of scum reads/town reads. your null all over the board, also i dont like you insinuating i called a scum team, are we not allowed to have three scum reads D1 anymore...

Where did I do that?
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Robz888

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1011 on: July 22, 2013, 12:25:13 pm »

voltaire, what's your flavor name?
I'm The Cop.

This should go without saying, but no one counterclaim him if he is lying. He is dead anyway.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1012 on: July 22, 2013, 12:44:19 pm »

Yea, even I you are a town pr, I'm not too upset at ash. What he said was right, there was no reason for you not to claim a pr, if your scum you would claim and that doesn't make chairs more likely to be scum, so he still would have been right to hammer
Uhhhh what? If volt is actually a town PR then he would be IC after claiming because of no counterclaim...
Yeah, people aren't thinking this through. Mcmc (ash if you're town):

D1 scenario:
Scum claims PR.
Gets counter-claimed.
Town lynches one claimant (let's just assume they get it wrong and lynch the real PR first)
mafia nks

on D2, that's 11 players alive, 3 of which are scum
town lynches the fakeclaiming mafia
mafia nks

on D3, that's 9 players left, 2 of which are scum. Town still has 2 PRs left.

That is WORST case scenario. There's a chance town lynches scum first, in which case D2 is 11 players left, 2 of which are scum, town has 2 PRs.

Even in this game, a 1 for 1 trade is good for town. And mafia can't fake-claim PRs in this setup! Only crazygambitscum will claim a PR.

Yea, I see what your saying, but there are actually 5 scenarios

if you are scum:
1) you claim, you get our real PR to counter claim you and he gets night killed. That sucks something awful
2) you claim, our real PR doesn't want to out himself, we don't lynch you. Not likely but another terrible situation

If you are town:
3) you claim, no counter claims so we save you but you are nk'ed. we lose our PR not that amazing of a deal especially if chairs is town.
4) you claim, scum counter claims we lynch you and then the scum and its 1 PR for 1 scum. Not likely to happen but good.

So if Ash let you claim we were going to do one of the following:
1) Lynch Scum and Lose a PR
3) Lynch (Town or Scum) and Lose a PR

If Ash doesn't let you claim, one of the following happens:
5) Lynch Town and Lose a PR
6) Lynch Scum

Best scenario is number 6, scenario 5 is potentially the worst but potentially equal to 3.

Lastly seeing as you were at L-1, 7 people think you are scum, it is more likely for scenarios 1 or 6 to occur, so it was a good call to not let you claim I think.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1013 on: July 22, 2013, 12:50:32 pm »

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

I think this is a really hedgy, unsure view of the alternative lynch to Chairs, that doesn't really tell us anything at all.

I agree with Mcmc's analysis that you really aren't saying all that much here, and that you have very few scum reads beyond "suspicions" that aren't putting yourself out there at all.

No.  No.  It's D1.  I refuse to name a scumteam D1.  I won't because that's ridiculous.  I reserve the right to be unsure about everything ESPECIALLY D1.  Why did you only point out Volt?  None of my reads were solid.  All could be considered hedgey.  Why only point the finger at Volt?

obviously i'm not one to talk about being helpfull, but i think there is a bit of a difference between naming a scum team and having a decent amount of scum reads/town reads. your null all over the board, also i dont like you insinuating i called a scum team, are we not allowed to have three scum reads D1 anymore...

Where did I do that?

I said your reads were silly and that they were all null, TA agreed and said you have very few scum reads. You respond with the bolded statement, You brought it up and defended yourself like we wanted you to name scum teams. So in my reads when I actually had scum reads, I figure you must think thats considered naming a scum team. I don't like that you defended yourself like we wanted scum teams from you, all I asked for was some more clarification than null on everyone. Even my reads though not supported well are more useful than a big fat list of nothing.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115, M118, M120, M122, M123, M124, M133, M134
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113, M119, M128, M142
Winrate: 45.4%(20/44) 39.3%(13/33), 63.6%(7/11)

shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1014 on: July 22, 2013, 01:01:53 pm »


3) you claim, no counter claims so we save you but you are nk'ed. we lose our PR not that amazing of a deal especially if chairs is town.

But if the hider knows exactly where the NK is going, they can increase their utility. (because worst-case for hider is hiding behind the NK target)
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raerae

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1015 on: July 22, 2013, 01:02:48 pm »

mcmc, that's false.  You didn't ask for clarification you just flat out attacked my reads because the weren't as specific as you wanted them to be.  I wasn't attacking your reads because I have discounted them.  You said you were going to give reasons for them and that post conveniently disappeared.  I was jumping from the extreme of saying everything I posted was null to the other extreme of calling a scumteam.  I hadn't even taken you into consideration in that post and I apologize you felt as if I was pointing a finger at you.  I won't make up reads just to please you.  If I'm unsure of somebody that's what I'll put down.  I won't stretch it to make them null with slight scum or null with slight town just to make you and TA happy.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1016 on: July 22, 2013, 01:05:00 pm »

I feel like at this point we should just assume that (since it's twilight) Volt's got no benefit to lying (we can't unhammer him, after all).
Not quite true - he can waste our twilight and distract us. Also, if he admitted to being scum then we could scumhunt some more during twilight, helping town PRs target the right people. Also he could be trying to get clues about the identity of the real trackervig.
I had not thought of this, and at first was like "oh yeah, good point. thanks townmember!"

BUT, I was realizing that scum are MUCH more likely to have thought of this, as they have likely thought about whether they would tell the truth or troll during this long twilight.  I'm bumping liopoil up to the top of "people I'm suspicious of"
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shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1017 on: July 22, 2013, 01:09:57 pm »

Volt: I'm not familiar with the "play a little scummy so I don't get mislynched" concept at all - is this normal?

This is a strategy that some people use, and I want to categorically state that it is a TERRIBLE idea.  Purposefully playing scummy as townPR misleads your fellow townies who are trying to find scum during the day.  This hurts the accuracy of town's lynches (which are the thing they have most control of), and can misdirect town's other PRs.

If all town members played a super-town game, then the PR won't actually have an increased chance of being NKed for acting towny.  Additionally, I have (as scum) shot at scummy looking town members specifically because I thought they were playing the "act scummy as PR" game.

So doing this strategy misdirects town's lynches and PRs, and with smart scum, may actually INCREASE your chances of being NKed.  Never ever ever never ever ever purposefully act scummy as a townPR.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1018 on: July 22, 2013, 01:12:01 pm »




I'm going to vaguely call these posts scummy.  Not as scummy as liopoil's post, but scummy enough to be noteworthy.
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Voltaire

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1019 on: July 22, 2013, 01:12:45 pm »

I just every now and then ignored a question I didn't think was important. People tend to find not answering questions scummy.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1020 on: July 22, 2013, 01:25:02 pm »

Volt: I'm not familiar with the "play a little scummy so I don't get mislynched" concept at all - is this normal?

This is a strategy that some people use, and I want to categorically state that it is a TERRIBLE idea.  Purposefully playing scummy as townPR misleads your fellow townies who are trying to find scum during the day.  This hurts the accuracy of town's lynches (which are the thing they have most control of), and can misdirect town's other PRs.

If all town members played a super-town game, then the PR won't actually have an increased chance of being NKed for acting towny.  Additionally, I have (as scum) shot at scummy looking town members specifically because I thought they were playing the "act scummy as PR" game.

So doing this strategy misdirects town's lynches and PRs, and with smart scum, may actually INCREASE your chances of being NKed.  Never ever ever never ever ever purposefully act scummy as a townPR.

If you end up flipping scum at end of game (I'm not saying you will, simply acknowledging the possibility exists at all) I'd like to revisit this to see if you'd say the same thing post-game.

Again, this is not me accusing you of anything, or even FOS or anything like that.  I just think this is the kind of thing that scum might think differently on vs town, and given the nature of Mafia I'd like to discuss post-game to ensure I'm getting your honest opinion as a now-disinterested person (something you can't get mid-game).

liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1021 on: July 22, 2013, 01:30:57 pm »

I feel like at this point we should just assume that (since it's twilight) Volt's got no benefit to lying (we can't unhammer him, after all).
Not quite true - he can waste our twilight and distract us. Also, if he admitted to being scum then we could scumhunt some more during twilight, helping town PRs target the right people. Also he could be trying to get clues about the identity of the real trackervig.
I had not thought of this, and at first was like "oh yeah, good point. thanks townmember!"

BUT, I was realizing that scum are MUCH more likely to have thought of this, as they have likely thought about whether they would tell the truth or troll during this long twilight.  I'm bumping liopoil up to the top of "people I'm suspicious of"
this is kinda silly. I think about both alignment's motives regardless of my alignment. this is something I have thought up a longggg time ago too. I'll go dig up one of my old posts. This is from Mean Girls right after xeiron claimed town in twilight:

scum will/should always claim town in twilight. If he is indeed town, then I think yuma is scum together with either mail-mi or eevee.

In this game I was town. Okay, so he didn't claim PR, but it's the same idea: as scum, never give info to town during twilight, because they can still discuss.
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shraeye

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1022 on: July 22, 2013, 01:38:33 pm »

The fact that you've said the same thing before does mitigate my statement.
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liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1023 on: July 22, 2013, 01:41:59 pm »

why not? you said: "I was realizing that scum are MUCH more likely to have thought of this". I just showed that I thought of this before I got my role PM.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #1024 on: July 22, 2013, 02:00:36 pm »

why not? you said: "I was realizing that scum are MUCH more likely to have thought of this". I just showed that I thought of this before I got my role PM.

Shraeye said it DOES mitigate his statement.
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